Faceoff - WR Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Anthony Gonzalez is in an outstanding situation for a fantasy (or NFL) wide receiver, especially with the departure of Marvin Harrison from Indianapolis. He plays with a quarterback who has thrown for over 4,000 yards during nine of the last ten seasons. Across from Gonzalez is an elite receiver, Reggie Wayne, who'll draw a lot of coverage away from Gonzalez, and at tight end is an outstanding pass-catcher in Dallas Clark who also draws a significant amount of attention from opposing defenders.

Gonzalez has had the luxury of growing into a starting role while playing behind Marvin Harrison, and enters his third season after increasing his number of receptions by 20 during 2008 over his 2007 numbers (57/664/4 last year vs. 37/576/3 in 2007, Gonzalez's rookie season). As fellow Footballguy Sigmund Bloom pointed out in his comments on undervalued wide receivers earlier this year (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/09valuewr0-1.php), Gonzalez is a trusted third down target for Peyton Manning already and has converted an incredible 73% of the throws that came his way thus far during his career into receptions. He's ready to step into the starting lineup entering this year, at a point in young receivers' careers when the pro game comes fully into focus and slows down.

It is true that Pierre Garcon has generated some buzz during spring organized activities, but his primary role with Indianapolis so far has been as a punt returner - he's seen all of four targets for four receptions worth 23 yards and zero TDs since entering the league last year. Austin Collie and Roy Hall are undistinguished players who have one reception for nine yards between them at this level entering 2009. Clearly, Gonzalez has the edge in experience at the NFL level and is already a trusted target of Manning - it doesn't appear that any of the other receivers on the roster are a legitimate threat to supplant Gonzalez.

To sum up: Anthony Gonzalez has the experience necessary to capitalize on his opportunity to start for the Colts this year. He plays with one of the best QBs in NFL history - Gonzalez is poised to enjoy a breakout season. He should be on your short list of players to draft as a third fantasy WR, as he has huge upside entering the 2009 campaign.

Downside - by Matt Waldman

It seems Anthony Gonzalez is everyone and their mother's shoe-in for a breakout fantasy season with Marvin Harrison no longer in Indianapolis. Footballguy Jeff Pasquino explains on Gonzalez's player page that, "if [he] can achieve 80 percent of Marvin Harrison's peak production then he will be a bona fide steal in fantasy drafts this year."

Harrison's peak production was from 1999-2002 when he averaged 117 receptions, 1581 yards and 13 scores. Eighty percent of that stat line would be 94 catches, 1264 yards and 10 touchdowns. Unless you believe Gonzalez is going to outperform Reggie Wayne this year, don't count on anything remotely close to those numbers.

Wayne's best fantasy season was 2007: 104 catches, 1510 yards and 10 scores. Prior to his knee injury, Harrison was still one of the best receivers in the game from 2004-2006, averaging 88 receptions, 1208 yards and 13 scores.

There are three types of receivers NFL: the deep threat, the possession receiver, and the primary threat who does it all. The deep threat has a lower reception count and a gaudy, yards per catch average. Wesley Walker, Flipper Anderson and recently Lee Evans and Bernard Berrian fit this profile. Possession receivers like Marty Booker, Wes Welker and Keyshawn Johnson amass high catch-counts, but hover around the 10-11 yards per catch.

The multi-dimensional players like Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin and Torry Holt combine the high-reception totals with yards per catch averages in the range of 13-16. Marvin Harrison was among the best of them. He owns three of the top-20 seasons in yards per catch average for WRs with at least 100 receptions. The only player other player with more than one season in the top 20 is Jerry Rice.

Reggie Wayne owns one (2007), however Wayne isn't a blazer and he benefitted from teams worrying more about Marvin Harrison getting behind their secondary on the Colts' vaunted play action routes. Gonzalez is at his best as a route technician. His best 'deep' range is the 15-30 yards.

The Colts know this and realize there is only so much they can do to bait the defense without a true deep threat. They hope rookie RB Donald Brown, a big-play threat they haven't had in the backfield since Edgerrin James' pre-ACL days, will draw defenses to the line of scrimmage and keep the stretch play, and resulting play action, a viable component of the offense.

Rookie Austin Collie and youngster Pierre Garcon have a higher ceiling than Gonzalez. Until they develop, expect the Colts to run a little more, rotating their two talented backs, and maximize the skills of Dallas Clark.

As great as Peyton Manning is, don't believe Indianapolis replacing Harrison with Gonzalez will not completely change the dynamic of their offense. Gonzalez is not a multi-dimensional weapon like Harrison. He snuck past defenses as a rookie, but they caught onto his act in 2008. Gonzalez will have some big games in 2009, but he won't be as consistently as productive as most hope.