Faceoff - TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Posted 8/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

I never thought I would see the day where you could put Antonio Gates in the category of underrated -- but apparently that's where we find ourselves today. Gates was the #1 or #2 tight end in fantasy football from 2004 to 2007 but had a subpar season last year. That's tough to say, considering that Gates had 60 catches and eight touchdowns last season. The veteran tight end has put up 75 catches, 900 yards and nine scores or better for the four prior campaigns, so while all those numbers are outstanding, Gates clearly was not the same stud tight end last year as he was in prior seasons.

Gates was hobbled all of last year with multiple injuries to his toe, hip and knee. When he is at full strength, Gates is an elite tight end capable of huge numbers. Even with Gates' struggles last season, the Chargers proved to be more than capable with their passing attack. Philip Rivers threw for 34 touchdowns, good enough to tie for the league lead, predominantly to his wide receivers.

While other owners are focusing on Jason Witten in Round 4 for their fantasy team, savvy owners will be able to pick up Gates a full round later -- and likely will get at least the same production. Witten faces the tricky problem this year that Dallas has lost Terrell Owens, so Witten now will be keyed upon on most passing downs. Gates not only does not have that problem, but he has the added benefit of San Diego's wide receivers earning more respect from defenses based on last year's performances. Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Malcom Floyd combined for 16 touchdowns and over 2,000 yards receiving so Gates will not be getting double-teamed over the middle like he was in years past when the Chargers had few viable targets outside.

Gates is still only 29 years old and, while he did have health issues last year, he still is a very efficient receiver. Last year Gates only had 60 catches but that was based on just 92 targets -- a 65% reception rate. That's exactly Gates' career reception rate -- 65%. That's crucial to understand and a key reason why he is a value pick for 2009. From 2004 to 2007, Gates' best seasons, he had at least 111 targets every year and actually caught less than 65% of his targets in three of those four years. So if you believe as I do that Gates' targets will go back to the 110-120 range for 2009, 70-80 catches is a very realistic expectation and that should be enough to put him at or near the top of all fantasy tight ends this year.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Antonio Gates' average draft position this season is as TE2 right around the middle part of the 4th Round. Frankly, that spot seems right on the money to me: if Gates performs as he has in the past 5 seasons then he is likely to justify his draft spot and may even exceed it. And considering Gates has finished first among tight ends three times it seems pretty reasonable to think that a 4th round pick for a player of his caliber is a pick worth making.

So what's the downside? For starters, Gates dealt with a number of injuries last season and while he played through them all, we at least have to consider the lingering effects of the injuries. More specifically, Gates battled a toe injury last season which is often the worst kind of injury long term for a player. Toe injuries can be slow to heal and painful to play with. While Gates has looked good in limited preseason action, the unfortunate reality is that there is no way to know if any of his prior injuries will flair up again.

Admittedly, that's a little like being scared of ghosts under the bed: he could be perfectly fine. And if that's the case we can expect his physical ability to continue making him one of the best tight ends in the league.

But another complicating problem comes in the form of the Chargers' offense. Once upon a time San Diego essentially handed the ball of the LaDainian Tomlinson and passed mostly to Gates -- end of story. But the emergence of Philip Rivers in to one of the game's best quarterbacks combined with significant depth at receiver and running back means that the team will not have to rely on Gates as often in the passing game. Yes, he'll always be a great option around the end zone and should catch a lot of balls. But Antonio Gates caught the fewest passes of his last 5 seasons in 2008 (60) and his yards-per-reception fell to a pedestrian 11.7. That would seem to indicate that more passes and more passes going further down the field are finding their way to players other than Gates. The Chargers' receivers caught 131 balls in 2008 after only catching 105 in 2007. And while no one expects Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers to suddenly start catching 70 passes each, there are only so many receptions to go around.

Admittedly, the "downside" of Antonio Gates is pretty limited. He's a stellar player and his draft position is pretty reasonable. But if he disappoints this season or fails to live up expectations it's likely to be injuries or the continued emergence of the Chargers' wide receivers that are the culprit.