Faceoff - RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

On a very poor Chicago Bears offensive attack in 2008, RB Matt Forte emerged as a fantasy force. In fact, he finished as the 4th best fantasy running back last season and with the changes made in Chicago this season, he has the potential to be even more successful in 2009.

Last year, Forte finished 4th in the NFL in carries (316), 7th in rushing yards (1238 yards), 3rd in yards from scrimmage (1715) and 3rd in touches of the ball (379). His 63 receptions were much better than most believed him capable of coming out of college and he has cemented his spot as top back on the team. It would be a mistake for anybody to rank him outside of the top-eight this season as he is in a very good position to do well.

Reasons to rank Forte inside the top-six this season

1. Great blend of talent, size and desire: Last year, Forte showed up to the Bears camp from Tulane and immediately wowed everyone. He has great size, surprising quickness and very soft hands which translated into a sensational rookie campaign. He is a load to bring down thanks to his 221-pound frame but also has enough nimbleness to make defenders miss in space. He also caught 63 balls as a rookie, displaying soft hands and the ability to run effective routes.
2. The Bears re-vamped offensive line should be better. Free agent signing Orlando Pace may not be the player he once was when he was the best left tackle in all of football. However, when healthy, he still has the size and ability to be very effective on the outside of the offensive line and he is certainly an upgrade for the Bears. With Pace and perhaps 2nd year tackle Chris Williams stepping into the lineup, Forte should find more running room this season.
3. The addition of a bonafide NFL quarterback in Jay Cutler: For the first time in a long while, the Bears passing attack may scare opposing defenses. With the addition of Jay Cutler this season, defenses will have to respect the pass more than in past seasons and as a result; the rushing game should have more space to operate within. Forte may reach the 2nd level more often this season untouched and he is a load to bring down once his forward momentum gets moving.

Last Word

Matt Forte is a very good running back. He has a tremendous mix of size, speed and receiving ability. With the insertion of Orlando Pace into starting tackle as well as Jay Cutler in at quarterback. There is no reason to expect a decline for Forte through this upcoming season. He will finish with at least 350 touches again this season and shouldn't have a problem sliding into the top-six. Don't make the mistake of believing this kid was a one-year wonder. He is the real deal.

Downside - by David Yudkin

There's no denying that Matt Forte exploded onto the fantasy scene last year as a rookie, ranking as the fourth best fantasy running back. His ADP is currently fourth overall, but some FBG staff members have him ranked as high as the second best fantasy pick for the 2009 season.

For starters, Forte scored 244 fantasy points last year, and in recent seasons that total would normally rank more in the RB7 or RB8 range. That meant that top tier RB scoring was lower than usual, and thus making an assault on the top spot this year is actually a bigger mountain to climb than it may appear.

Forte excelled based primarily on opportunity. There were not many other options at RB and Kevin Jones had the second most carries on the team with just 34 and Jason McKie saw the second most receptions by a RB with 11. Heading into this season, Jones is now much more removed from knee surgery and should be healthy and good to go from Day One. Last year, he never was 100% and struggled to see significant and meaningful playing time. The Bears thought enough of Jones to re-sign him.

But the biggest reason Forte will struggle to repeat his 2008 performance is the acquisition of Jay Cutler. Cutler gives the Bears a legitimate QB threat for the first time in a long time, and they certainly did not mortgage their future by bringing Cutler in to hand the ball off all game long. Cutler has shown a propensity to throw a lot, but not that often to running backs.

Last year, the entire Denver running back corps accounted for 43 receptions and 12% of the teams completions. Forte alone had 63 receptions (sixth most by a rookie RB) and 21% of the Bears total receptions. Cutler was brought in to move the ball downfield, not check off to a back underneath.

Under normal circumstances, it would have been hard for Forte to exceed his 379 touches from last year (which ranked third in the league). It may be even tougher with Jones, a competent back in his own right, spelling Forte and potentially seeing some series of his own. Factor in the renewed interest in bolstering the passing attack, and Forte should not see as big a workload as he did last year and should remain fresher. He averaged 15.2 fantasy ppg on the season, but only 11.6 in the final month (almost a 25% drop off).

Forte should have another solid season, but the likelihood is that he will lose some touches and production this year, resulting in a drop of a few spots in the year-end fantasy RB rankings.