Faceoff - QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Joe Flacco played well as a starter last season after being thrust into the role as a rookie. The former Delaware Blue Hen is a big quarterback that has more athletic talent than most give him credit. At his size, he is still a threat to run if no receiver is open. The Ravens are built around the defense and a strong running game. Last season, with the rookie under center, the Cam Cameron's offense was more conservative than normal. Fantasy owners can expect the offense to open up some as Cameron becomes more comfortable with Flacco.

Quarterbacks usually take a huge step in their development as a starter between year one to year two. The game slows down for them and they become more confident in the pocket. Most second-year passers are able to read defenses and know where the ball is supposed to go on every play. Considering he led his team to within a game of the Super Bowl, a significant increase in Flacco's maturity and development would be a welcomed sight. As a fantasy quarterback, Flacco finished as QB20 as a rookie. He should improve on that ranking in year two.

Even after a productive rookie season, Flacco has an ADP (Average Draft Position) of QB21 and player 139 overall. Flacco and the Ravens get a huge break in the schedule this year. Outside of the AFC North, the team faces some very poor defenses from the AFC West. It is nice to have one-fourth of the games in a season against the likes of Kansas City, Denver, Oakland, and San Diego. The Chargers will have an improved defense, but the other three should be very good matchups. Baltimore also meets the teams from the NFC North this year. Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit are collectively very tough against the run, but much softer versus the pass. Add in four games against the Browns and Bengals, and the schedule gives Flacco some opportunity for big fantasy games.

The Baltimore offense will be run-oriented, based around the three-headed monster of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Le'Ron McClain. The strong running game will help keep the pressure off of the young passer. Defenses will be focused on stopping the run game, giving Flacco opportunity to take advantage of man-to-man coverage in the secondary.

The Ravens lost some key defensive personnel this offseason. The biggest loss may be coordinator Rex Ryan. He took some valuable players with him to the Jets. Bart Scott will be sorely missed. But, any decline in the defense might actually help Flacco as a fantasy passer. It might lead to opening up the offense. Joe Flacco is a young, maturing passer who could surprise many this season. He is a low cost fantasy QB2 that is the unquestioned starter who will not be drafted in many leagues.

Downside - by David Baker

Joe Flacco did a more than commendable job last year, his first in the NFL. He led the Ravens to within a game of the Super Bowl. He didn't make too many mistakes and ended the season as the 20th ranked QB in our fantasy ratings. And while it may be reasonable to assume that Flacco takes another step in his maturation process, it doesn't seem likely to me that he should leap into QB1 range. I frankly wouldn't have much faith in him as my QB2.

One of the first things you think about when it comes to the Baltimore offense is that they like to run the ball. A lot. They are a run first offense, as evidenced by their 520+ rushes last year by their running backs. They led the NFL with 592 total rushes. Only one other team had more than 520 rushes. With Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain, the Ravens are almost certain to follow a similar mindset in 2009. And that means that you shouldn't expect Flacco to start airing it out anytime soon.

Another thing that could provide a blow to Flacco's numbers this year is the lack of viable receivers after Derrick Mason. While he has unretired, if something were happen to Mason, the team has limited options, especially with regard to NFL experience and someone that can step up as the team's WR1. Mark Clayton has shown some positive signs but he still only had 41 receptions last year. Demetrius Williams has also shown promise, but his overall play has been laced with inconsistency and he's had trouble staying on the field. In three NFL seasons, he's never had more than 22 receptions in a season. Replacing Mason's 80 receptions and 1,000+ receiving yards would not be easy. Even though Mason has returned, he can't go on forever and at 35 years old simply can not have many more years as a starter, let alone someone who gets over 1,000 receiving yards. When Flacco does throw, he had some problems throwing over the middle, with a QB rating of less than 50 in that area.

Flacco played like a much more seasoned vet last year and there's plenty to like about him. It's that much more impressive to think he did it as a rookie. But temper your expectations for Flacco as your fantasy QB this year. While he may end up in the low 20s among his peers, his upside seems minimal compared to those around him and I'd think for a QB2 you could do much better.