Faceoff - WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

Posted 8/12, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Of all the free agent acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball this season, the one that may have the greatest "trickle down" affect is the Bills signing wide receiver Terrell Owens to be their go-to receiver. Owens became Buffalo's WR1 as soon as the ink was dry. As a result, Lee Evans -- who had been their WR1 -- actually receives a bump up in value for the 2009 season. While Evans may see a decline in opportunity, he should easily see an increase in production.

In the last five seasons, Evans has been catching the ball from some fairly mediocre quarterbacks. Despite that fact, he's still managed to get a ton of looks (close to 100 targets per season on average). He also drew the other team's top corner and occasionally suffered through double-coverage as the Bills didn't have any other real receiving threats. And here is where the addition of Owens actually helps: if there has been a knock on Evans in recent years it is that despite his high number of receptions, he doesn't score many touchdowns. His ability to score has been reduced substantially by the fact that safeties have shadowed to his side and stopped him from getting to the endzone. The addition of Owens actually makes it MORE likely that Evans will be able to beat his coverage and find paydirt since the other team's deep coverage will be more focused on containing Owens.

While it may seem hard to get excited about a player whose average fantasy finish over the years has been as WR21, Evans offers great value this season. He is currently being drafted as WR25 and while he will obviously lose a number of looks to Owens, he should more then make up for it due to no longer being the focus of the opposition's pass defense. Historically, Evans has been very productive with the balls he has caught (he boasts a career yards-per-reception of 16) and he has caught more then 100 balls in each of the last three seasons. Even if Evans has 30% fewer receptions, he could still post a respectable 70 receptions, close to 1,000 yards, and - most importantly -- an increased number of touchdowns. While a return to the Top 10 is unlikely, Evans is one of the more talented 2nd wide receivers in the league and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him as the highest finishing 2nd wide receiver in Fantasy Football for 2009.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Oh, the enigma that is Lee Evans. He has all of the physical tools to be an elite NFL wide receiver. Evans can get open deep without much difficulty. The word "potential" should be his middle name, but oh my, has he disappointed fantasy owners. He leaves us with a lot of questions going into 2009. Can he bounce back? How many times has he produced to this current ADP? Evans is currently being drafted as the WR24 off the board. He has only finished higher than this ADP (WR24) one time in his career, and that was before Terrell Owens came to town. The thing to note on his one good season (2006) is that it took Evans 137 pass targets to finish that high. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY he gets that type of pass targets with Owens on the field. Further, he could not even get that many targets the last two seasons as the unquestioned WR1 for the Bills with 113 and 102 passes respectively.

Now, Terrell Owens is in Buffalo. How will it affect Evans? Owens will assert his WR1 status early and often. Can the Buffalo passing offense support two receivers with this high of ADP? Since the answer is "no", then what will give? Owens will get his targets. It will probably be Evans and his production that decreases with Owens in town. When we look at the numbers put up by Dick Jauron offenses, they are far from the pass-happy levels needed to sustain two top receivers. While Jauron has been in Buffalo, the Bills have finished 24th or worse in pass attempts every season. Here is one more statistic to think about if you expect a large uptick in passing numbers for the Bills in 2009. After Jauron's first ever season as head coach (1999 in Chicago), his teams have never finished higher than 22nd in passing yards.

When we look at the Buffalo passing game, we see a young passer in Trent Edwards that has found it difficult to avoid injury and to finish the season strong. In fact, Edwards has had a poor ending to both of his seasons in the NFL. Evans has found it similarly difficult to finish the season strong with Edwards under center. Evans had a total of 104 receiving yards the last three games of the 2008 season. In 2007, his last three games totaled 81 receiving yards. In these six games combined, Evans had only one touchdown. Keep in mind that the time when fantasy owners need the production most.

So, we have a receiver who has finished higher than his current ADP once in his career, and needed 137 targets to do so. Now, Terrell Owens is added to the mix. They play in an offense that historically has not thrown the ball much. The starting quarterback fades down the stretch. Add all of these together and the odds for Lee Evans coming close to his ADP look mightily slim.