Faceoff - QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills

Posted 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Matt Waldman

Trent Edwards' future outlook gets penalized for being smart in a challenging situation. Footballguys' Worst Case section on Edwards' player page knocks him for his tendency to look for the check-down. If he were more aggressive, he would have repeated J.P. Losman's mistakes -- and we all know how well that worked out. Like Edwards, Drew Brees was also once penalized for being a smart QB with limited resources. It isn't the only thing that Edwards and Brees have in common.

I wrote about Brees when the Chargers' QB was coming off a 2003 season where the team jettisoned their best receiver Curtis Conway and replaced him with an over-muscled, underachieving David Boston. With only a talented young runner, Brees managed to complete 60.84 percent of his passes and throw 17 TDs to 16 INTs. Mediocre stats, but if you consider only 21 second-year, QBs in the modern era completed over 60 percent of their passes with a positive TD-INT ratio, then it changes things.

Fourteen of the 21 QBs with this accomplishment had long, productive careers as starters and 10 of them led their teams to at least one Super Bowl: Staubach, Montana, Simms, Marino, Kelly, Favre, Eason, (Peyton) Manning, Warner, and Brady. Brees' has become a more than worthy addition to this list despite initial criticism that he was as a weak-armed, game manager.

Edwards surrounding talent in 2008 was similar to Brees' second year. The Bills QB's only downfield threat was Lee Evans. If Evans didn't beat his opponent off the line immediately, then who were the other consistent downfield threats in this offense? Not James Hardy, an overrated draft pick lacking the agility and aggressive mindset to catch the ball in traffic on contested intermediate routes. Not Roscoe Parrish, a special teams guy whose skill as a receiver is limited to the underneath zone. Definitely not Robert Royal, a reliable but pedestrian short-range option. Josh Reed? Don't even joke with me.

Despite Edwards' limited surrounding talent, the second-year starter completed 65 percent of his passes with 11 scores and 10 interceptions. These numbers put him in elite company and reflect his skills more than anything else I can mention. Most of the quarterbacks listed above had more surrounding talent than a decent runner and quality receiver at their disposal when they eventually hit their stride.

Edwards earns that chance to elevate his stats with Terrell Owens and rookie TE Shawn Nelson now in the fold. And do I really need to explain how Owens, Evans, and Nelson will force defenses to play the Bills straight up? Plus, offensive coordinator Turk Schonert installed the hurry-up offense and is giving the QB more freedom to change plays at the line.

These changes reflect a trust in Edwards' ability to process the game. The QB will finally get more chances to make blitzing defenses pay rather than check down if the primary option is covered. The Bills offense will leap forward in 2009. Expect the same from Edwards' fantasy production.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Trent Edwards is a player that many fantasy owners are touting as the sleeper of the year. Terrell Owens joins the Bills and adds a great weapon for the Buffalo passing game. He joins Lee Evans and a strong running game led by Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. Considering that Edwards is being taken as QB18 off the board, he is not worth the risk. He is being drafted before David Garrard, Joe Flacco, and Jake Delhomme. Last year, all three passers finished ahead of Edwards, who ended the season as QB23.

Yes, things look better for Trent Edwards this season. But, there are a few things standing his way from living up to his ADP and expectations. First, let's look at how he finished the season both years Edwards has been in the NFL. When the weather turned cold in Buffalo, Edwards struggled. The last three games in which he played the past two seasons were horrific. Edwards averaged 10 or fewer fantasy points a game over the last three contests of each season. This hurt fantasy owners when they needed him most.

In 2008, Trent Edwards had only one game with 19 or more fantasy points. Yes, that is right. He only had one good fantasy game. In contrast, Edwards had four games (out of fourteen) with less than nine fantasy points. So, Trent Edwards has few big games and several bad games. Can Terrell Owens dramatically improve those numbers? I doubt it. Edwards is a player who had only eleven touchdowns (and ten picks) in fourteen games last year. Now, we see all of the projections with 20-plus touchdowns? Edwards only had one game in 2008 with more than one passing touchdown. In 24 career games, Edwards has the same amount of scoring throws as interceptions, 18 of each. So, with 18 touchdowns in 24 career games, does it not seem very improbable for him to throw for enough scores to warrant being drafted as QB18 off the board?

In college, Edwards struggled to stay healthy. He played more than nine games in a season only once. Last year, he kept up the trend by missing two games late in the season. For fantasy owners, this is just one more element of risk.

Lastly, for those thinking that Buffalo might open up the offense, I would like to remind you that Dick Jauron is still the head coach. After Jauron's first year as a NFL head coach (1999 with the Bears), his teams have not finished higher than 22nd (in the NFL) in passing yards. Over the last three seasons in Buffalo, Jauron's offenses have finished 24th or worse in passing attempts. It seems unlikely that Trent Edwards will get enough pass attempts to be a viable fantasy option for owners.