Faceoff - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Dodds

Ladies and gentleman, this may be the best player in fantasy football in 2009. How can I say this with such conviction? The two things that needed to happen this offseason finally happened for Jones-Drew.

• Fred Taylor moved on which puts Jones-Drew as the clear starter vice a work-share situation
• The Jaguars offensive line went from being a liability to being one of the better units overnight (stars back from injuries and talented rookies added in the draft).

In just 47 games, Jones-Drew has scored a whopping 38 TDs. His career 4.8 yards per carry is fifth best among active RBs. His career 34 rushing touchdowns already put him on the Top 20 list among active players - in just three years in the league.

And his touches are about to improve significantly with Taylor now in New England. He has averaged just 180 carries the last three years where he was the 8th, 13th and 9th best back. In PPR leagues, he finished as the 4th best RB. Let me repeat that so you see exactly what I see. He finished as the 4th best RB in PPR leagues last year with just 180 carries. There is no one to challenge Jones-Drew for touches this year. Conservatively he will get 230 to 250 carries. It's possible he could get 280 carries. Add in his breakaway speed, his catches on third down and his ability to score from the goal line and you have the complete package.

The fact that Jones-Drew did as well as he did last season despite his offensive line falling apart solidifies his skill set to me. I saw countless runs when he was hit in the backfield just to shake off the tackle and turn it into positive yardage. No team in the NFL did more than the Jaguars to improve their line play this offseason. Their normal power blockers are healthy again and they drafted two legitimate studs in Offensive Tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton with their first two picks in the draft.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

People seem to have a lot of confidence in Maurice Jones-Drew this season. The departure of Fred Taylor has left lots of folks thinking that Jones-Drew is ready to be an every-down-tons-of-receptions-and-yards-and-TOUCHDOWNS kind of guy. In each of the last three drafts I've done where points were awarded per reception, it has been Jones-Drew that was selected first overall -- ahead of Adrian Peterson. Yes, lots of folks see a lot of great things for MJD this season.

I, however, am not one of them. Not even close.

Maurice Jones-Drew's best fantasy finish in three seasons is as RB8. His average finish is RB10. Somehow, his current average draft position is second overall. So it would appear that the consensus feels that, despite what you are about to read, Maurice Jones-Drew is ready to reach fantasy super-stardom.

Now, consider this:

• Maurice Jones-Drew has never broken 1,000 yards rushing. Wouldn't you expect a player you might select first or second overall to have exceeded 1,000 yards rushing in at least ONE of his first three seasons?
• Maurice Jones-Drew has never had more than 197 carries in a season. That's an average of just north of 12 carries per game. TWELVE. CARRIES. PER. GAME. Somehow we're supposed to believe that Jones-Drew, based on the departure of Fred Taylor, will somehow be able to carry the ball 18, 20, 25 times a game? Furthermore, we're somehow supposed to think that the increased workload won't also lead to a decrease in yards per touch?
• Maurice Jones-Drew has averaged 83.9 yards per game (rushing/receiving) since he came in to the NFL. For comparison, Adrian Peterson has averaged 116 yards per game in two seasons and Clinton Portis has averaged 121 yards per game in seven seasons. For goodness sake, Steve Slaton averaged 104 yards per game last season and you don't see his ADP in the Top 2. For a player that averages the same yardage as Maurice Jones-Drew, the best comparison is Brandon Jacobs who has averaged about 90 yards per game in each of the last two years. Anyone lining up to take Jacobs first overall?

Best I can tell, the thinking is that Maurice Jones-Drew's touches should increase (likely), he'll catch a lot of passes (true), and he'll scores a lot of touchdowns (also true). However, those things being true and MJD's ascension in to the Top 2 or Top 3 running backs in the league is not a mutually exclusive scenario. For the life of me I can't figure out why anyone thinks the number of touches he receives this season will be substantial enough to increase his yardage totals in such a way that he might finish in the Top 5 among running backs (never mind finishing first overall).