Faceoff - QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Dodds

It's always difficult to assess a player switching teams. And Jay Cutler's situation is no different. Although it's easy to think Cutler's gig with the Bears is a lot worse in 2009 than the situation he left, I think that would be a big mistake. Cutler goes to a team that has a significantly better defense (which should give him more time of possession, shorter fields, and increased redzone chances).

His receiver's look worse on paper, but Cutler throws among the best balls in the league. How good can Devin Hester be when the ball hits him in stride? Greg Olsen is an upgrade over Tony Scheffler. Matt Forte is an upgrade over the RBBC Denver ran last year. And anyone watching even just a little game film can see that Cutler is a lot more talented than Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman.

But Orton and Grossman combined for 20 passing TDs and added another 5 rushing TDs in 2008. The Bears also had 527, 525 and 512 passing attempts the past 3 seasons. So this isn't a situation where Cutler was brought in just to hand the ball off. He will throw almost as often as he did in Denver.

The QB rushing TDs should continue in 2009 as Matt Forte gained just 16 yards in 12 goal line rushes. Expect Cutler to be part of the goal line package that pads his stats.

There is also more reason for optimism here. Division rivals Green Bay and Minnesota will ensure adequate number of shootouts. The Bears added Orlando Pace to an already effective offensive line. Olsen, Forte, Hester, and Bennett are all growing as players and will likely benefit from the precision passing of Cutler. At an ADP of QB10, I think Cutler should be able to easily surpass his expectations. He has Top 5 talent and it's hard to imagine a situation where he is not among the top 12 to 15 QBs at season end.

Downside - by Matt Waldman

Jay Cutler's rifle arm, accuracy on the move, toughness, and bravado will provide the Bears a much-needed dimension to their offense that has been missing since Jim McMahon was healthy (if not a myth). His addition should immediately help the Bears give the Packers and Vikings a run for their money in the NFC North. However, if you think Cutler's 4526 yards and 25 scores with Denver in 2008 is coming with him to Chicago in 2009 then you'll be one disappointed fantasy owner.

Running backs and wide receivers move to new teams and immediately post quality fantasy starter production with far more frequency than quarterbacks. There are exceptions. Warren Moon's move from the Oilers to the Vikings and Drew Brees' transition from the Chargers to the Saints were instant statistical successes. Both QBs moved to teams with excellent offensive talent, subpar defensive talent, and coaches with keen minds for the passing game.

Jay Cutler is moving to a run-first team much like Brett Favre and Joe Montana. Favre's final season with the Packers yielded 4155 yards and 28 scores while his numbers with the Jets dipped to a respectable, but not consistently starter-worthy, 3472 yards and 22 scores. Joe Montana had a 3944-yard, 26-score season with the 49ers in 1990. He missed all but one game with a back injury the following year. In 1992, he was shipped to the Chiefs and in 11 games, Montana posted 2144 yards and 13 scores. Favre didn't have a full off-season with the team and Montana only played 11 games, but both teams had strategies predicated on the run and tough defense. The Bears are in the same mold.

Much like Drew Brees when he arrived in New Orleans, Cutler's career is on the ascent. However, Brees lacked a great wide receiver in San Diego before he joined the Saints. Cutler had two strong receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett headline the Bears corps and neither is a true, primary receiver that will draw, and beat, bracketed coverage.

Hester is one of the most explosive players in the game, but he lacks Eddie Royal's route skills and hands. Earl Bennett's past experience with Cutler at Vanderbilt should accelerate their NFL rapport. He is capable of making the tough catch in traffic, but he lacks the explosion and versatility of Marshall. Bennett is more of a Hines Ward type of receiver. The best skill players in this offense are TE Greg Olsen and RB Matt Forte, but they will only help set the table for the play action game. No NFL offense uses the TE or RB to consistently create big plays in the deep passing game.

Expect the Bears to continue winning on the ground and with a tough defense. Cutler's ability to extend plays should help the Bears win 2-3 close games and make him a solid, No. 2 fantasy QB with some big weeks. Look to next year for anything more.