Faceoff - WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Following the departure of Laveranues Coles the onus will fall on Jerricho Cotchery to carry the Jets receiving game. With an average of almost 80 receptions, almost 1,000 yards and over four TDs over the past three years, he has the makings of a stable WR3 for you, but if those figures get analyzed a little closer he could and promises to be so much more.

The Jets passing game is likely to undergo a major change with rookie Mark Sanchez the favorite to win the starting quarterback position from the since departed Brett Favre. Under Favre the Jets were average across the board in passing statistics, except for intercepts where they were the worst in the league. Cotchery never really clicked with Favre, and with Coles moving on to the Bengals, Sanchez will be looking to establish a relationship with his receivers. Right now there are two likely primary targets in second-year tight end Dustin Keller and of course Cotchery. The running backs will be assured of their receptions, but on the whole Cotchery is unlikely to regress in targets a great deal, and an increase is reasonably probable. The Jets have retained the services of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer under new head coach Rex Ryan, giving vital stability to the Jets offense. It is hard to imagine the Jets passing game declining to the point where Cotchery and Dustin Keller are not fantasy starters.

At worst Cotchery approaches his ADP, but before evaluating Cotchery one does have to consider his potential upside. In each of the last three seasons one of his major statistics was out of alignment and if he ever were to put figures up that he's managed in two of the last three years he would become a strong WR2, easily out performing his ADP. In 2006 his yards per catch was a pedestrian 11.7 average, which he promptly added two yards per catch to in 2007. Unfortunately in 2007 his touchdown total dropped from six to two and although he got that back up to five in 2008, his reception total fell by 11 dropping him from a borderline WR2 to mid WR3 territory. Of course one could get crazy when projecting Cotchery for a number of reasons: Sanchez does a Matt Ryan, the running game struggles, another WR fails to impress opposite Cotchery etc, but a reasonable view of how Cotchery could perform this year is more than enough to elevate him above his current ADP.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

Jerricho Cotchery is being drafted after many of the NFL's number one wide receivers and many of the league's number two receivers. For example, Cotchery is currently being selected after former teammate Laveranues Coles, a receiver getting up there in age who is playing for a new team in Cincinnati. On the surface, such a draft position -- WR29 at the end of the seventh round -- would seem to scream "value." But a closer look reveals something different. In looking for reasons why Cotchery might finish higher than his ADP of WR29 what we actually find is a long list of reasons why he won't finish anywhere near that high.

For starters, isn't it fair to ask how long fantasy owners are supposed to wait for Cotchery to "break out" as a receiver? Last season seemed like a great opportunity for him -- he was playing with a strong-armed quarterback in an offense that had a dire need for his skills as a deep receiver. He also had a respectable receiver (Coles) lining up opposite him to help draw coverage. Yet instead of building on his prior two seasons wherein he averaged 82 receptions, 1,046 yards, and four touchdowns Cotchery ended 2008 with fewer catches (71), fewer yards (858), and only five touchdowns.

Even if we allow that 2008 was an anomaly, there are a number of new issues that could cause Cotchery to perform even worse. While he is now undoubtedly the Jets' number one receiver with Coles gone, he is playing a new position (split end instead of flanker) in yet another new system with a new head coach and likely with an extremely raw quarterback in Mark Sanchez tossing him the ball. If Cotchery had performed at a career best in 2008 it would be completely reasonable to expect some regression if for no other reason then the quarterback play on his team will likely be the most inconsistent it has been in his entire career. Add in that his 2008 season was already a step back from when he was at his best and with all of the other factors weighed in, it becomes very difficult to find any upside this season in Jerricho Cotchery.