Faceoff - WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jason Wood

There's only one reason I'll buy that Marques Colston will fall short of his projected value, and that's his injury status. The team announced that Colston underwent microfracture surgery on his left knee in January, which sent shivers down the spines of fantasy owners who thought Colston was a lock for another top-10 season. While microfracture surgery has a stigma of 'career threatening', the simple truth is doctors are getting better at it. Just as Tommy John and ACL repair procedures used to be damning, they eventually became more routine and the recovery regimens and prognoses improved dramatically. The same is happening with microfracture surgery. Let's not forget that Kellen Winslow, Jr. had microfracture and bounced back. By all accounts, Colston's surgery was a success.

The proof is, of course, in the pudding. We need to see Colston practicing, at full speed, in pads, during training camp. If he's on the field practicing, there is absolutely no reason to discount his value this year. And if he's not practicing? Well then don't draft him, pretty simple equation, really.

If you're not concerned about Colston's injuries, his skill set and situation couldn't be more advantageous. At 6-foor-4, 223 pounds Colston is built like a tight end but runs like a receiver. He's got phenomenal body control, attacks the ball, and can get space on opposing defenders either through his raw speed or his precise route running. In 41 games, Colston has 215 receptions for 3,000 yards and 24 TDs. His 14.0 yards per reception average typifies his game-breaking ability. If you were to pro-rate Colston's career marks over a 16-game schedule, you would have:

• 84 receptions
• 1,171 yards
• 9.4 TDs

Now remember who's throwing Colston the ball. Drew Brees has been the league's most prolific passer since joining the Saints and is coming off only the 2nd 5,000 yard passing season in NFL history. As long as Colston is on the field, Drew Brees will target him early and often. With Brees' skill set, and his ability to get the ball to any receiver at any position, opposing defenses can't afford to consistently double Colston. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas are dangerous out of the backfield, Lance Moore is a potent WR2, and Jeremy Shockey should be productive in his first full season in New Orleans. Normally one might argue that the presence of so many other weapons detracts from a wide receiver's value, but this is an offense that throws 600-650 times per season. Big difference.

At the end of the day, Colston is one of the few NFL receivers that could finish atop the rankings. While Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson may be better bets, Colston is in my view the fifth most likely option. So long as he's healthy, he should be a #1 option in the late second or early third round.

Downside - by David Yudkin

Marques Colston has been a solid performer the past few seasons, but the hype has gotten out of hand and he seems to be getting more love than he should. He ranked eighth in his one season where he managed to suit up every week, but his top ranking by FBG staff has him as the number five wide receiver this season. That's just too high given the current landscape heading into the season.

Like teammate Reggie Bush, Colston underwent micro fracture surgery on his knee. No matter how you slice it, that can't be considered a good thing given Colston's injury history. He's missed seven games in their entirety over the past three seasons and was hampered in many other games along the way.

He's averaged a respectable 10.8 fantasy ppg over his career, and over a full season that would project to 173 fantasy points. Last year, that total would have ranked Colston as the eighth best receiver, meaning that Colston would have to stay healthy and be more productive to crack the Top Five.

Colston could also be a victim of circumstance this year. The Saints eclipsed 5,000 passing yards on the season, and realistically they have no place to go but down in terms of passing totals. Even with all that production to go around, New Orleans failed to have a thousand yard receiver. Seven players hauled in at least 30 receptions and eight players had at least 200 receiving yards. Long story short, the Saints spread the ball around a lot.

And there has been a lot of discussion about the Saints running the ball more. Pierre Thomas has been touted as a potential workhorse back, Reggie Bush should still see his standard 10-12 carries a game, and if the defense improves the Saints may actually try to run the clock out at the end of the game.

All in all, spotty health + spread the ball around + more running attempts = little chance of a top-five season for Marques Colston. He once again may rank in the top 10-15 spots in ppg for receivers, but he may not play in all 16 games this year.