Faceoff - QB Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted 8/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Tefertiller

Matt Cassel steps into a golden opportunity in Kansas City. The Chiefs traded a second round pick for the perennial backup in college and in New England. He is still a young passer that is continuing to develop as a quarterback. Cassel is only 26 years old and has started a whopping 15 games in his professional career. He could surprise many as a fantasy option this season. The good news for Cassel fans is that the Chiefs face the porous Denver Bronco defense and the Rob Ryan-less Oakland Raider defense twice each season in the AFC West. He should have some big games. The Bronco games could be high-scoring affairs.

The Chiefs have undergone many changes in coaching and in the front office since the close of the 2008 season. Two newcomers, Head Coach Todd Haley and General Manager Scott Pioli, were instrumental in bringing Cassel to Kansas City. They saw unquestioned promise and potential for the former USC Trojan benchwarmer. Cassel kept his composure early in the 2008 campaign and vastly improved as the year progressed. Toward the end of last season, Cassel proved he was worthy of a starting gig - somewhere. As soon as it became apparent that Tom Brady was healthy and would be at full strength for training camp, New England pulled the trigger with former employee Pioli to bring Cassel to Kansas City. Haley orchestrated the prolific Arizona Cardinals offense before coming to the Chiefs. He knows how to be productive in the passing game.

With an ADP of QB14 and player 92 overall, Cassel offers considerable upside for a fantasy backup. Tyler Thigpen finished as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback last season in a similar situation. The Chiefs did trade away All Pro tight end Tony Gonzalez, but that could be a moot point with the change in offenses. The Chiefs still have talented receiver Dwayne Bowe who is among the top young wideouts in the NFL. The team signed Mark Bradley during the season last year after he was released by the Chicago Bears. Bradley showed signs of promise as a Chief. He should be the favorite to start opposite Bowe. Bradley needs to show he can stay healthy. Veteran Bobby Engram should start as the slot receiver. Engram brings a wealth of experience to share with his young passer and fellow pass catchers. Jamaal Charles and Larry Johnson are good options in the passing game. Charles is a player that could emerge this season. He is the lone offensive player with blazing speed.

The young Chief defense will often leave the offense in a position of playing catch up. They will be passing frequently while behind in games. The Kansas City defense has no pass rush and a very young secondary. The team will be behind in many games and may find it difficult to establish the run with Johnson. This all sets up for what could be a big season for the young passer getting his first shot to be the unquestioned starter.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

Could the New England Patriots take a kid off the street with minimal football experience and turn him into a quality NFL quarterback for their team? That seemingly happened last year after unheralded Matt Cassel, replaced Tom Brady in week one and finished as the 8th best QB in the league and propelled the Patriots to an 11-5 record. Cassel was a seventh round draft pick out of USC that never started a single game in college. What he accomplished last year with New England was nothing short of amazing. It ranks up there with the Kurt Warner rags to riches story. However, Warner has turned in several solid seasons. Cassel has but one season under his belt and his success could arguably be a result of his supporting cast, rather than his abilities.

If Cassel were starting at QB for the Patriots again this year, there would be few people second guessing his ability to perform again. That, however, is not the case and it's the primary premise behind the negative prognostication of Cassel's expected outcome for 2009.

Cassel will be taking his three-ring circus to Kansas City, without the star attraction, the ring leader or the tent. In other words, the showstoppers that made him a success are...well - still in New England.

Fantasy speaking he is being projected as the 14th ranked QB. He is going to have to pick right up where he left off in order to meet that goal. In New England he was surrounded by talent from nearly every angle, not to mention a no-nonsense coaching staff that is known for turning average players into superstars. He will not have that luxury in Kansas City.

Several reasons why Cassel could struggle this year

• His former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is now the HC for the division rival Broncos. Cassel will face his mentor twice next year. McDaniels will know all about Cassel's strengths and weaknesses. This is not good news.
• The Chiefs have a new coach of their own - rookie HC Todd Haley, former OC for the Arizona Cardinals. Nothing against Haley, but he's not Bill Belichick. Haley came from a system that heavily used the passing game, but the Chiefs WRs are not anything close to Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
• Long time TE and future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez is no longer with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are not just rebuilding their offense, they are rebuilding their identity.
• New England knows how to win. The players know it, the coaches know it. Kansas City will have to a tough hill to climb before they have the team chemistry they're looking for.
• Cassel was sacked a league high 47 times in 2008 - with New England no less. If he doesn't shore up that part of his game, he won't last long under center in Kansas City.
• It is not a foregone conclusion that he'll be the starter all season. Sure, he has more money than his competitor and teammate Tyler Thigpen, but if Cassel struggles, don't think the Chiefs won't look at Thigpen as a possible replacement.

When it's all said and done, there are too many reasons to think that Cassel will not only regress, but regress hard this year. He will be hard pressed to meet his QB14 ranking, let alone exceed it. There are other QBs that have a lower ADP than Cassel that have a better chance at stardom. It's possible that the next five QBs on the board after Cassel (Eli Manning, Matt Hasselbeck, David Garrard, Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards and Jake Delhomme), will outperform him this year.

Keep in mind, Cassel has only one year of solid play - and that's being on one of the better offenses in league history. He'll have to jump through some major hoops in order to come close to his production from last year. In my opinion he will not put up the numbers needed to be a starting fantasy QB.