Faceoff - WR Greg Camarillo, Miami Dolphins

Posted 7/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

Greg Camarillo broke out in his third NFL season, posting 55 catches for 613 yards and two scores in only 11 games last season -- good enough to finish as WR54 in non-PPR leagues, WR50 with PPR. Why do I consider that a breakout? The key is the 11 games, because as soon as you start to look on a point per game (PPG) basis, Camarillo leaps up the charts. His numbers last season ranked him as WR40 in non-PPR and WR32 in PPR leagues when you look at his PPG totals. Extrapolating his 11 games to a full season would give Camarillo 80 catches, 892 yards and three touchdowns. How good of a season would that have been? Only 14 wideouts had 80 or more catches in 2008, while only 28 receivers had over 892 yards. That's right -- Camarillo would have been a Top 15-30 WR if he had played all 16 games at that pace.

But wait, there's more! There are many more reasons to like Camarillo for 2009. Chad Pennington is the starting quarterback for Miami, and he seems to love the possession receivers that pick up 10-12 yard chunks at a time -- a perfect description of Camarillo. He is not flashy, but he does move the chains -- sort of like Wes Welker or Derrick Mason. Couple this with his lack of touchdowns on a per-catch basis (just two on 55 receptions) and you can see right away the room for him to put up much bigger numbers this season. Adding just 2-3 more scores would immediately push him up the fantasy charts.

What about the other Dolphin receivers contending for targets? Ted Ginn has yet to prove himself as a WR1 in the NFL, and even if he does manage to fill that role this year he will not dominate all the WR targets. Davone Bess is a concern for many Camarillo fans, but Bess was behind Camarillo when he was healthy last season and Camarillo has been lining up in OTAs this off-season as the starting wideout opposite of Ginn, looking 100% healthy since his knee injury and surgery last year while Bess has been pushed to the slot / WR3 role.

The biggest reason to want to pick up Greg Camarillo for 2009 is simply how cheap he is to get right now. Based on his ADP, he is the 68th wide receiver on average to be selected in fantasy drafts, going anywhere from Rounds 15-19. You heard me right -- a WR that was on pace for WR15-WR30 fantasy numbers is available in the same neighborhood as fantasy defenses and kickers. Talk about your value picks! Selecting Camarillo is not a sexy pick, but he represents an immense value (especially in PPR leagues) that to have him as a fifth, sixth or even seventh wide receiver on your fantasy team could turn a very good fantasy team into a great one.

Downside - by Jeff Tefertiller

In 2008, Greg Camarillo was playing well before injury. He came onto the fantasy horizon with a strong three-game stretch at the end of the 2007 season. The 2008 campaign only solidified his sleeper status. Camarillo was a handy safety net for Chad Pennington in a conservative offense. The Dolphins relied on Camarillo with few other options at the receiver position.

There is one big question in the minds of fantasy owners. Is Camarillo all of the way back from his ACL and meniscus injuries? This injury happened in Week 12 of the 2008 season. It usually takes a player at least a full year to get back to full speed. Many speculated that Camarillo would start the 2009 season on the PUP list because of the knee injury. But, he is already back on the field and running drills. Even if Camarillo plays in the early season games, it is not likely that he will be back to pre-injury form. Camarillo not at full strength is not worth much to fantasy owners.

Davone Bess emerged after Camarillo went down with injury. He played very well. Bess caught 30 balls in the last five games of the season while Camarillo was out of the lineup. Now that both are available for the Dolphins, the pie is split too much for either to be viable in fantasy leagues. Bess played well enough at the end of the season to get his share of targets this season.

Camarillo and Bess are vying to start opposite Ted Ginn. Ginn played much better last year and should improve in year three. He should emerge as the true WR1 for the team. Ginn totaled 863 yards of offense and four touchdowns. Any uptick in Ginn's production will make it less likely for either Camarillo or Bess to make an impact.

The Dolphins have not been happy with their receiving corps. The Miami receivers are one of the worst groups in the NFL. To address this weakness, the team drafted Patrick Turner from USC and Brian Hartline from Ohio State. Early reports are that Turner has looked good. There could be opportunity for one of the rookies to start opposite Ginn soon enough.

Another concern for Camarillo is the infrequency of red zone targets. Quarterback Chad Pennington spreads the ball around and does not look for the wide receivers in the red zone. The running backs and tight ends find the endzone more frequently than the wide receivers. In 2008, the wide receivers only scored five receiving touchdowns while the backs had four and the tight ends had eleven scores respectively.

Greg Camarillo is a fantasy player that many owners will draft late in fantasy drafts. He could very well surpass his ADP (average draft position). But, in only the deepest of leagues will Camarillo be able to make an impact. At this point in fantasy drafts, it is best to take a player with upside, which Camarillo does not possess.