Faceoff - WR Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Last year, Antonio Bryant enjoyed the best season of his career, finishing as the 8th best fantasy WR including the top WR in the last seven weeks. This year he is currently the 19th WR being selected in redraft leagues. There are a few reasons for why his expected value has dropped heading into the 2009 season.

• The Bucs will have a different QB throwing the ball. Gone is Jeff Garcia, who signed with Oakland to be closer to his ties in northern California. Garcia had nine TD passes from week seven on last year. Seven of those TDs went to Bryant. It's fairly clear that the two established a strong connection on the football field.
• The Bucs have a whole new coaching staff led by rookie coach Raheem Morris. It is unclear exactly how Morris and OC Jeff Jagodzinski will feature Bryant in the passing game.
• The trade acquisition of TE Kellen Winslow has led many people to believe Bryant's presence in the offense will be limited, compared to how often he was utilized last year.
• The free agent acquisition of RB Derrick Ward, who is an outstanding pass-catching back, is considered to be another threat that would take away targets from Bryant.

Those examples are the main knocks on Bryant's expected production in 2009. Be that as it may, there are still reasons to think that Bryant's career has turned the corner and that he will still be a staple in the Buccaneers offense, despite all of the off season changes.

Reasons for optimism

1. As of right now, the main receiving threats for Tampa Bay are Bryant and Kellen Winslow and not much else. If things stay that way heading into Week 1, we could very easily see a two-headed monster in the Bucs receiving game. Each will be enough of a threat to eliminate double teams. Opposing defenses won't know which player to primarily defend, thus leaving both with periodic chances to exploit coverage when the situation dictates it. A two-man receiving threat such as that can lead to many 10+ target games. Bryant had seven 10+ target games in 2008. Players who consistently have high target numbers, tend to be great fantasy WRs, because they produce consistent points week to week.
2. The Bucs like what they see from rookie QB, Josh Freeman so far. Freeman has an outstanding arm that can stretch the field. If Freeman does earn the starting QB role, expect Bryant to be a big part of Freeman's game. The wide open style of offense that made Freeman big at Kansas State, benefits Bryant.
3. Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard combined for 86 targets last year. Both are no longer on the team. This should open up more opportunities for Bryant, especially deep plays down field.
4. Bryant finished in the weekly Top 10 among fantasy WRs six times last year, including the Top 15 in six of his last ten games. Bryant rose to the occasion and his confidence level increased tremendously. Expect that to carry over into 2009.

If The Buccaneers decide that their WR corps does not need any additions, expect Antonio Bryant to be a big player in the Bucs offense, regardless of who's playing QB or how effective the offense is. Keep in mind, The Lions offense was horrendous last year, but Calvin Johnson managed to finish as the third best WR. That's not to say the Buccaneers of 2009 will mirror the winless Lions, but it illustrates that a WR can still be productive on a less than stellar offense.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

Antonio Bryant exploded last year and seemingly came out of nowhere to put up big numbers for Tampa Bay last season (83 catches, 1,248 yards and 7 TDs), but there are many reasons not to expect a repeat performance. Let's start with what is going on in Tampa since last December. Jeff Garcia is gone (Oakland), so the quarterback is an open competition between Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich and rookie Josh Freeman. Someone has to win that battle, but it may take a while to decide and that is time lost for Bryant and his quarterback to get down important timing issues with passing routes.

Adding to the quarterback uncertainty is a recipe for Bryant's chances to decrease in 2009. Last season Tampa Bay had Jerramy Stevens and Alex Smith at tight end who combined for only 57 catches and less than 650 yards. New offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski used to be a tight end coach, and one of his newest toys will be none other than Kellen Winslow, Jr. who came over in a trade from Cleveland. That tells me that the Buccaneers will be looking to use Winslow more in the offense, and he is a likely candidate for 90-100 targets and be a factor in the Red Zone.

Another addition is former Giant RB Derrick Ward signed during free agency. Ward factors into the offense in two ways that should impact Bryant. First, Ward is likely to get over 200 carries, a number no Tampa Bay rusher obtained last year, which should help to balance the offense. A non-pass heavy offense is not a good thing for Bryant's numbers, as the Buccaneers threw the ball over 58% of the time last season, and a more balanced attack means fewer targets for Bryant. The other concern is that Ward is a good receiver out of the backfield just like Earnest Graham. Both backs and Winslow will afford whoever the starting quarterback is for Tampa Bay numerous options in a short passing game, which will again lower Bryant's numbers.

If you want one single reason not to take Antonio Bryant as a Top 25 WR this year, look no further: 137 targets in 2008. That's the biggest concern for me because I do not believe he will get anywhere close to that number this year. In his career, Bryant has had only two seasons with over 100 targets (which were his only years over 1,000 yards) and only two seasons with six or more touchdowns. Last year he had a career best in catches, yards and scores, but his yards per catch (15.0) was in line with his career average. If the additions to Tampa Bay's offense help to create more balance and spread the ball around more as the Buccaneers are likely planning to do for this season, Bryant should return to his normal range of production and put up WR25-WR40 numbers, just like he has throughout most of his career. The downside risk of drafting Bryant as a Top 20-25 wideout in a fantasy draft this season is too steep for me.