Faceoff - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Matt Waldman

It appears I'm the lone bull in a room full of bears on Ronnie Brown, but if Brown's "street value" as the 30th pick in drafts extends into August, I'll look more like a shark in a tank of tuna. Brown's talent and situation portends another chance to select two elite RBs with little effort.

Last year, I picked the dynamic duo of Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in multiple leagues. Most people liked Turner's skills, but his lack of experience as a full-time starter and new environment fueled caution. I chose to side with the non-statistical factors that favored Turner's prospects and rightly believed even a slight "reach" for Turner was a bargain. I believe Ronnie Brown's talent and changes to his supporting cast will make the Dolphins runner an elite fantasy starter in 2009.

It's a given that Brown has immense talent. Many draft analysts compared Brown's athleticism and versatility to LaDainian Tomlinson. He wasn't LT-like in his first two seasons, but he was the top fantasy back in the first seven games of 2007 with 602 yards rushing (5.1 ypc) and 389 yards receiving (10 ypr) before tearing his ACL. If you forgot, Brown's 2007 production was on a team that finished 1-15.

Brown's surrounding talent (and ACL) held him back in 2008. Although the Dolphins were successful with the Wildcat offense, it was implemented out of necessity when they lost starting guards Justin Smiley and Donald Thomas to injury. The Wildcat and single-back sets were Miami's most successful run formation because they relied on motion, misdirection, and finesse.

However, the Dolphins couldn't impose their will on opponents lining up with eight- and nine-men fronts with the power running game. It is a big reason why Ronnie Brown only rushed for 50-plus yards only seven times in 2008. This should change in 2009 with new offensive line coach Dave Guglielmo.

Guglielmo spent five seasons with the New York Giants top-performing unit and the line made significant improvement immediately. He is an excellent teacher whose strength is communicating adjustments to his unit between plays and series, which is why a coach like Howard Mudd was so revered with the Colts.

The Dolphins unit is physically talented. LT Jake Long made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, RT Vernon Carey is solid, and LG Justin Smiley looked great until he broke his leg in November, but he should be fully recovered this summer. If RG Donald Thomas can't return to health, they have enough versatility with their depth to plug this one hole. The biggest coup was acquiring former Raider C Jake Grove to replace the undersized Samson Satele. Grove is a physical player capable of competing with the division's best NTs, which should make them more effective in the power-I sets.

If Brown can make the Pro Bowl and score 10 times with an ACL still 10-12 months away from full recovery and he did it behind a makeshift line, this situation portends big things in 2009.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

After Ronnie Brown's disappointing 2008, you would figure that if you wanted to gamble on a rebound, the price would be modest. Maybe a fifth or sixth round pick, similar to other feature back who were downers last year, like Willie Parker and Joseph Addai. Brown's current ADP of 30 - a mid third round pick in a 12 team league - is just too steep for a guy who had an even worse statistical season last year than it appears at first glance.

We do have to give Brown a wider berth last year because he was coming back from ACL surgery. He was reportedly faster, quicker, and more explosive in OTAs, so that should account for some bounce back in 2009. Still, that bounce back is coming from a lower point than season-end numbers would indicate. Brown was an unknown coming into the season because of the ACL, and in the first two weeks, he only carried the ball 17 times for a rousing 2.8 yards per carry. In Week 3, the Dolphins unleashed the wildcat on the unsuspecting Patriots, Brown accounted for five touchdowns (one passing, four rushing), and everyone who drafted him thought they had gotten the steal of the century. They weren't dispelled of that idea when Brown showed he could still pound the ball like a workhorse the next game, piling up 125 yards and a TD on 24 carries in a win over San Diego. Brown found the end zone only four more times in the final 12 games. He carried the ball more than 16 times exactly once, the same amount of times he had more than 15 fantasy points.

With Brown's improved condition, he should get more than 214 carries (his 2008 total), but Miami still has Ricky Williams, and their gameplan has become even more adaptable with the addition of wildcat QB supreme Pat White. Take away Brown's stats in the wildcat last year, and you basically have Jamal Lewis. Miami will be playing a first place schedule this, a harsh contrast to the last place schedule they faced last year. Ronnie Brown should do some things to remind us why he was the No. 2 overall pick in 2005 as entered the last year of his rookie deal, but not enough to justify a pick in the early third, when you can still score one of the last remaining stud WRs, or a "set it and forget it" QB like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.