Faceoff - QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Baker

Tom Brady had a torn ACL last year that kept him on the shelf for almost the entire season. Coming back from that is tough enough. Add in the fact that his rehabilitation had some problems and you can make an argument that Brady may not produce much this year. However, it would not be a good argument. It doesn't take much hindsight to recall Brady tossed an NFL record 50 touchdowns just two years ago. While I don't think he'll be approaching those numbers in 2009, he doesn't have to do so in order to remain on top of the QB heap. Drew Brees was the fantasy leader at the position last year and had 34 passing touchdowns. Brady could see a reduction of 15% of his 2007 numbers and still have 35 passes.

So what about Brady's cast of characters around him? Start with Randy Moss. Moss had 23 touchdowns in Brady's record breaking season and even had 11 touchdowns last year. Arguably the league's most explosive and dynamic receiver. Next there's Wes Welker, who is coming off back-to-back seasons with over 110 receptions and more than 1,100 receiving yards. Toss in veteran Joey Galloway and you have one of the league's very finest units. And the trio of tight ends Ben Watson, Alex Smith and Chris Baker is far from shabby too. Plus, third down RB option Kevin Faulk remains viable and in the picture. The options for Brady are wide and varied. With RBs Lawrence Maroney and the newly acquired Fred Taylor, it's not like opponents can load up with a big pass rush either. And their offensive line remains in tact for the most part, with Pro Bowlers all around.

True, Brady might be forced to wear a knee brace for much or all of the season and while his mobility may be limited accordingly, it's not like Brady has been another Fran Tarkenton anyway. And some of the earliest reports revealed issues with Brady's timing and accuracy. But those should be kinks that will be worked out long prior to opening day. With a suspect secondary for New England, this season could end up with more shoot outs than prior years, leading to perhaps increased passing opportunities.

It seems almost inconceivable to me that Brady doesn't succeed in 2009. He has too many playmakers on too good of a team not to. Even if he's a bit rusty to open the season, the Patriots proved last season that they can resort to shorter passes and move their way slowly up the field. Brady is just too good and has too much talent around him not to have another big year. 50 touchdowns? Very unlikely. But look for Belichick and the Patriots to try to strike fear once again into their opponents and the result should reap dividends for Brady's fantasy owners.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Tom Brady had a season for the ages during 2007 (398/578 for 4806 yards, 50 TDs and 8 interceptions vs. 451/1849/17 rushing), but prior to his career year, Brady had never thrown for more than 28 TDs, and his previous high in passing yardage occurred during 2005 (334/530 for 4110 yards, 26 TDs and 14 interceptions). His record-setting 2007 campaign was clearly an exception, rather than the rule, for the New England offense.

From year to year, the Patriots' offense wanders between a more balanced attack and a more pass-heavy attack - the Patriots were sixth in rushing attempts (499) during 2006, while landing at 12th in passing attempts (527); they were 22nd in passing attempts (484) during 2004, while landing at 5th in rushing attempts (524). During 2005, the team was seventh in passing attempts (564) and 18th in rushing attempts (439). The Patriots vary their offensive mix from season to season, as you can see.

This year, I expect the offensive attack to be more balanced (as opposed to pass-happy), because A). Brady is recovering from major knee surgery and has been off the field for almost a year-and-a-half (he didn't do a lot of work during the 2008 training camp due to a foot complaint, and then blew out his knee in the first regular season game) - Brady is likely to come out of the gates slowly as he works to get his game back to top form. B). The team acquired Fred Taylor from Jacksonville this past off-season and they have a capable stable of other backs to rely upon this year (during 2008 Laurence Maroney's broken shoulder limited the effectiveness of the rushing attack - this year, he is reported to be healthy, and Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis are also available for various roles during 2009). C). Bill O'Brien is transitioning into the offensive coordinator role that Josh McDaniels vacated when he left for Denver (O'Brien is officially the quarterbacks' coach, but he's being groomed to take over the OC role under the close supervision of coach Bill Belichick). In order to ease Brady's and O'Brien's integration into the 2009 offense, the Patriots will ask their backs to carry a heavy load initially, while evaluating Brady's progress in his return to the field.

While it is true that Brady has one of the best tandems of receivers in the NFL at his disposal (Randy Moss and Wes Welker), Brady still has yet to get his timing back and also has yet to absorb his first hits since being seriously injured. Brady's long lay-off and the changing dynamics among the coaching staff in New England will combine to keep him out of the ranks of elite fantasy QBs during 2009.