Faceoff - WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted 7/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

Dwayne Bowe is heading into his third year in the league, a year that many consider a potential breakout year for wide receivers. Even before TE Tony Gonzales left for Atlanta, Bowe emerged as the team's primary receiving threat (157 targets in '08 led the team) and he crested the 80/1000 receiving plateaus. His 2009 numbers should improve on his 2008 numbers for two simple reasons. One is the distribution of Gonzales' numbers and the second is QB Matt Cassel.

First, let us look at Bowe as a receiving threat. With Gonzales gone, the team will need to distribute 154 targets among the remaining receivers. Any uptick in Bowe's 157 targets will land him in the top-30 for individual target numbers since 2002. A 10 target bump is easy to imagine. 167 targets would land him in the top-15. All those receivers except Brandon Marshall had at least 175 FPs. 175 FPs would have made Bowe the #8 fantasy receiver in 2008.

An argument against Bowe might be his low TD numbers. He had only 7 TDs in 2008 and 5 in 2007. However, those low TD numbers occurred with Gonzales on the team. In 2008, Gonzales had 22 red zone targets. Dwayne Bowe had 19. The next closest TE/WR was Mark Bradley with 7. With Gonzales gone, it is reasonable to expect Bowe's red zone targets to drastically improve. Even with solid slot WR Bobby Engram receiving a number of red zone looks, a 20 percent improvement in red zone looks is reasonable. An increase in red zone looks should equate to more TDs.

Moreover, the team has a competent, but not a dominant, running game. Therefore, in both close games and (more likely for KC) fourth quarter comeback attempts, Bowe should see plenty of targets.

Second, we can assume improvement in Bowe's numbers because Matt Cassel will be throwing the football for Kansas City. Given the price the team paid to acquire him, Matt Cassel is the undisputed starter. Bowe caught passes from three different QBs in 2008. It can only be considered an improvement to his fantasy outlook that he will have only one quarterback in 2009.

Though some may argue Bowe will be double teamed more in 2009 due to the loss of Gonzales, that logic may be flawed. The player who would double team Gonzales in 2008 will need to keep an eye on Engram out of the slot in 2009. Bowe should see a similar number of double teams in 2009 as 2008l. In sum, Bowe has an upside well above his WR11 ADP, and only a small likelihood of falling out of the top-12. That makes him a great third round WR choice.

Downside - by David Yudkin

Dwayne Bowe apparently is the new trendy receiver to own this year, as a huge majority of people have him ranked, projected, and forecast as a consensus Top 5 to Top Ten wide receiver heading into the 2009 season. In the Bowe Player Spotlight Message Board thread, some folks had him projected at 110+ receptions, 1,450 yards, and 15 TDs. However, in looking more in-depth at the situation in Kansas City, the puzzle pieces just don't seem to fit for that to happen.

Bowe had a solid season last year, ranking as the 16th best fantasy receiver. He developed a great chemistry and rapport working with Tyler Thigpen at QB. However, the Chiefs cleaned house in the coaching and administration ranks in the off-season and the new regime appears committed to Matt Cassel (and his $14.6 million guaranteed contract for this year). The main focus of the argument that Bowe will outperform his 2008 numbers (86-1022-7) revolves around the departure of tight end Tony Gonzalez.

Bowe saw 157 targets last year, ranking him third in the league in that category. True, Gonzalez may no longer be on the Chiefs, but how many more targets could Bowe realistically see this year? Kansas City may allocate those looks to other tight ends receivers, or backs, or they could opt to give more carries in the ground game in lieu of passes.

Another issue is Matt Cassel. Playing on a team where he had been a backup for years and fully knew the offense, the Cassel-led Patriots saw their points scored total drop from 589 to 410 points scored and their passing yardage fall from 4,731 to 3,569 yards.

By comparison, the Chiefs last year scored 291 points and had 3,129 passing yards. Are we to expect a dramatic improvement stimulated by Cassel when he is working in a new system with player personnel and coaches he's never worked with before? Future Hall of Famer Randy Moss couldn't muster 70 catches and barely cracked 1,000 receiving yards on a team that was the most prolific scoring offense in the history of the NFL. Yet Bowe is going to blow past Moss' numbers from last year playing on one of the weakest offensive teams in the league?

The more we delve into the situation, the more Bowe is starting to sound over hyped. He should have a solid season, but don't expect him to ascend to the top of the fantasy food chain this year.