Faceoff - WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings

Posted 8/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Bernard Berrian is entering his fifth year in the league and his second with the Vikings. Last year he finished as the 18th ranked WR - a career best, despite being on a team that finished 25th in passing yards. Berrian managed only 48 receptions last year, but he had 964 yards and 7 TDs. If you're scoring at home, that's 20.1 yards per catch. His current ADP is 73 overall, WR-28, which is right around the beginning of the seventh round in 12-team re-draft leagues.

Why you should pursue Bernard Berrian this year

• Berrian has improved on his season ending ranking in each of the last three years (32nd, 26th and last year 18th). Keep in mind he has accomplished this with sub-par QBs in Chicago and Minnesota.
• He has 18 TDs in his last three years with subpar QBs that included Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson. Last year Berrian had seven TDs, in seven different games. In a four week stretch between weeks five and nine, he was third in receiving yards with 426 yards. In that stretch he had four TDs and was tied for second in fantasy points for WRs.
• He had four 100-yard games last season, despite the team not having a single 300-yard passing day all season.
• Brett Favre (even at 84 years of age) is an enormous upgrade at quarterback. The Vikings don't necessarily need him to air it out often, due to their strong running game, but if the situation of play-action presents itself, he is more than capable.
• As if stopping the run was hard enough for opposing defenses, the development of Sidney Rice and the presence of speedster rookie, Percy Harvin will cause confusion to defenses. It all results in a situation that will make it more difficult to keep Berrian from beating teams deep.
• In his current ADP, he is likely being selected as a WR3. One note to consider - if his ADP does continue to rise due to Brett Favre's presence, his draft position may elevate him out of WR3 selection. Leagues that draft early may want to take advantage of Berrian's current draft positioning.

The Vikings are a run first team, but don't expect Minnesota to be 25th in passing yards in 2009. An increase in the passing game will most definitely give Berrian the opportunity to repeat his numbers from last year and quite possibly exceed them.

The Bottom Line

Berrian has had three consecutive improving seasons and he's expected to have a better QB in 2009 that will increase the team's passing potential. He is currently ranked 28th among WRs, despite finishing ten spots higher at the end of the 2008 season. Take advantage of people's thinking that last year was an anomaly.

Downside - by David Yudkin

While I personally do not think Bernard Berrian will have a disappointing year this season, there are some concerns that could impact Berrian's production. He ranked as the 18th best fantasy receiver last year, and on the surface, one would think he could do as good or better with more experience and a future hall of fame quarterback running the offense.

For starters, Berrian is already banged up and is nursing a hamstring injury. Under normal circumstances that might only be a minor issue, but given that the Vikings just signed Brett Favre and Berrian can't practice, that could be a big deal. Berrian and Favre have run exactly zero plays together (at least with about two weeks until the regular season starts) and thus have not built any chemistry in working together.

As for Favre, the notorious gunslinger has his own health issues to deal with, and his shoulder injury last year derailed what started out as a promising season. Favre has lost a lot from his prime and may not even be much of an upgrade compared to the other options on the Vikings roster (Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson) and even some not on the roster (most notably Michael Vick if he was even a real consideration).

Some Minnesota fans are already clamoring for Favre to be benched should he get off to a rocky start. Even if he doesn't, to expect Favre to have full command of the playbook and be on the same page with his receivers from the get-go would be expecting a lot.

Berrian certainly will be hard pressed to improve his sparkling 20.1 yards per reception average from last year. He became just the second receiver in the past 10 years to average 20 YPR with at least 40 receptions in the same season (Ashley Lelie 2004).

Percy Harvin has been added, Sydney Rice has improved, Visanthe Shiancoe emerged last year, and Adrian Peterson should see even more action this year. All those factored together could mean fewer targets for Berrian. All things considered, there are a number of reasons to expect Berrian to drop off compared to his 2008 campaign.