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Faceoff - WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams
Posted 7/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com
Upside - by David Dodds
The St. Louis Rams let Torry Holt walk in the offseason. That alone tells the story in what they see in Donnie Avery. He was the first WR drafted in 2008 and quickly earned a starting gig as a rookie. He played hurt with a sore hip for a lot of the year but still showed flashes of something special when on the field. And this was on a team that lost its way in 2008 with injuries everywhere. The Rams selected standout OT Jason Smith with the second pick of this draft, and that should do wonders to solidify an offensive attack that saw their QB running for his life on most downs.As a rookie, Avery managed 53 catches for 674 yards and three TDs. He also racked up 59 yards and a score on nine rushes. With Holt now in Jacksonville, expect the passing game to lock on to a healthy Avery a lot in 2009.
Avery will be the clear WR1 on the Rams. To get a clear picture of Avery's potential, consider that Holt was targeted 119 times and ended up with 64 catches in 2008. And that was a down year for Holt who caught 93 (2007), 93 (2006), and 102 passes in just 14 games (2005) in the three years prior.
Avery's current ADP is WR31 (84th overall). Last year's 31st-best WR scored just 115 fantasy points. That's approximately 850 combined yards and five TDs worth of production. Unless Avery gets hurt and misses considerable time, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn't get at least that level of production with an improved offensive line and a lot more balls thrown to him. I also suspect St. Louis will be in their share of games where they will be playing from behind and will be forced to throw. This could pad Avery's yearly totals considerably.
Downside - by Chris Smith
Does second-year WR Donnie Avery have the playmaking ability to become a top-20 receiver in 2009? The answer to that question is a resounding 'YES'. However, there is more to a great fantasy campaign than individual player talent. When weighing all the pros and cons for Avery this season; I believe it is important not to rank him inside the Top 24 at the receiver position.Reasons To Avoid Selecting Avery Too Early In 2009
- The loss of WR Torry Holt: Some may look at the Rams' loss of Torry Holt this season as a positive for Avery in 2009 but I see it quite differently. For a young receiver, playing alongside of a talented, veteran player such as Holt is a great boon as it forces defenses to roll coverage over on the veteran, giving the young up-and-comer receiver more single coverage looks against the second- or third-best cover guy on the team. Avery is going on be on an island by himself, as the Rams' receiving core is looking very weak and inexperienced heading into training camp. He will draw the best defenders on the opposing defenses and likely face double teams right from Week 1.
- It is not the 'Greatest Show on Turf' anymore in St. Louis: While some still believe the Rams passing attack is explosive, the reality is far from the truth. The Rams are as distant from that once-famous title as I am from the slogan 'Greatest Athletic in North America'. With an inexperienced receiver core and a young defense, the Rams best hope for success is to pound veteran RB Steven Jackson up the middle 30+ times per game. Over the past two seasons, veteran QB Marc Bulger has thrown just 22 total touchdowns and that was with WR Torry Holt on the roster. He is a mediocre quarterback surrounded by inexperienced targets in the passing game.
Last Word
There is plenty to like in regards to Donnie Avery as an NFL wide receiver. He is fast, skilled and put together a decent rookie season in 2008. However, the loss of veteran WR Torry Holt will hurt Avery thanks to drawing the best cover guy on defense and the Rams passing attack looks middling at best heading into the season. Look elsewhere for your starting receivers this year.