Faceoff - S Oshiomogho Atogwe, St. Louis Rams

Posted 7/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jene Bramel

Continuing my summer series of schizophrenic face-offs, I've got the upside argument on O.J. Atogwe this season. Last year, I was lower on Atogwe than any other staffer and wrote a downside argument slamming Atogwe's pedestrian tackle numbers and calling him a major risk to repeat his above-average big play production. A year, 77 solos, six forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and five interceptions later, I'm a believer and have him ranked first overall among defensive backs. This is more than just a reactive, he did it last season upside argument. His consistent production is definitely compelling. But there are other reasons to like Atogwe this season.

Before examining his 2009 upside, though, it's definitely worth reviewing Atogwe's recent history. It's true that last season was Atogwe's first breakout tackle season. It came during a year in which Will Witherspoon struggled greatly in the middle and the Rams finished with above-average team tackle opportunity per game. Just as impressive, though, was Atogwe's third-consecutive season of impressive peripheral big-play numbers. Five forced fumbles, a sack and three picks in 2006. Eight interceptions in 2007. And the nine forced fumbles/fumble recoveries, 1.5 sacks and five interceptions noted above last year. Those numbers make a strong argument that Atogwe may have wrested the title of best all-around, big play safety from Adrian Wilson.

This season, Atogwe's all-around, big-play skill set will be plugged into the roaming free safety role in Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive 4-3 defensive front. In previous seasons, that role has provided ample tackle and big play opportunity for stud DB options like Brian Dawkins and Gibril Wilson, two safeties with similar profiles to Atogwe -- always around the ball in run support and coverage. Despite the addition of James Laurinaitis at MLB and the shift of Witherspoon back to a WLB that suits him better, Atogwe should remain in position to hit or exceed 70 solos. The aggressive scheme will definitely put Atogwe in position to take advantage of his big play skills. Since the Rams aren't likely to control the ball on offense or consistently get off the field on defense, Atogwe should see enough snaps to leverage that opportunity into big numbers.

Last year, I argued that Atogwe provided DB4 risk in a DB2 price. This year, I think he provides huge value as a mid-late DB1 selection if you can get him there and I wouldn't hesitate rostering him as my DB anchor.

Downside - by Aaron Rudnicki

O.J. Atogwe has clearly established himself as one of the best play-making safeties in the game, but he may still be overvalued at the moment. His fantasy value depends very heavily on big-play production which is normally very difficult to replicate from one season to the next. He did set a career high in solo tackles last year, but the Rams were also one of the worst teams in the league, so their defense was on the field a lot. The Rams are expected to employ a run-dominated, ball-control offense this year which will likely help limit the snaps for the defense. The addition of James Laurinaitis should also provide an upgrade in the front seven and result in fewer short plays breaking into the secondary.

Atogwe is a tough player to argue against given that he has been able to put up some very impressive numbers on some bad teams the past two years, but there's always some concern after a team goes through significant changes like the Rams have this offseason. While Steve Spagnuolo's new defensive system will provide some quality blitzing opportunities for the safeties, new strong safety James Butler seems more likely to benefit. Butler followed his old coordinator to the Rams so he should have an advantage when it comes to learning the system and may even wind up being the more valuable player if he's allowed to play a typical SS role up near the line of scrimmage with Atogwe patrolling the deep secondary. Additionally, even though the Giants under Spagnuolo had a very potent pass rush the past two years, no player finished with more than four interceptions in a season, so Atogwe may have trouble approaching the eight interceptions that he put up in 2007 again.

There is also some cause for concern regarding Atogwe's contract situation. While he was hoping to cash in with a big payday in unrestricted free agency this year, the Rams used their franchise tag to retain him. Atogwe has refused to sign the franchise tender in hopes of signing a long-term deal, although the rules of the CBA may make that difficult. He hasn't looked like a holdout threat yet, but things could change quickly if he doesn't get the long-term deal that he wants and probably deserves. If, as expected, Atogwe sees a 2009 regression in both solo tackles and forced fumbles, he will almost certainly not live up to the high expectations that many have for him. He'll still likely be a reliable DB2-type option, but finish somewhere outside of the elite at his position.