A Different Dynasty Strategy - "Year 2"
Posted 7/1 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
When joining a dynasty league - whether it be a new league or one with a long history - I almost always utilize a strategy for my team that is startling in its effectiveness but decidedly rare in its implementation. Frankly, I've not encountered anyone else doing it, at least not in the same, focused way that I do. (That's not to say I'm the only person building a team this way, just that I haven't seen other folks trying it.)
My strategy is simple: Build for next year. Not "build for the future" or "acquire young players" or "try to win this season." My strategy is to build for the very next season. Thus is born the "Year 2" strategy. It is startling how many people in dynasty startup drafts draft exactly like they're in a redraft league through the first six to eight rounds with no thought to what their team will look like in a season or two. And when they finally get around to thinking of the dynasty aspect of things, they take longshot flyers on guys who have a very remote chance of ever being anything more than a bit player in the NFL.
The advantages in this strategy are ample.
Advantage #1 - Since next season isn't really that far off, it is fairly easy to make assumptions about players. By targeting players who will be more valuable next year than this year, you are working in a market where the players you are pursuing are all "buy low" candidates. It's pretty easy to surmise that young players like Chad Henne and Rashard Mendenhall are likely to cost you much less right now then they will in 2010. It's also pretty easy to surmise that their impact in 2010 is likely to be SIGNIFICANTLY greater then anything they've done to this point. You're not trying to gauge Matt Stafford's future prospects or the chance of Beanie Wells turning in to Eddie George. Rather, you are evaluating players that are a year away from the chance to be full-time, top-tier performers. You're looking for players who have played enough to convince you they have a future but not so much that the cat is out of the bag. In 2007, Michael Turner fit the bill and his 2008 season was extraordinary by any standard. Aaron Rodgers could have been had for ten cents on the dollar as recently as January of 2008.
Advantage #2 - Since you are building specifically for next season, you are significantly more focused than people who continually stockpile young players "for the future." I often see teams interested in acquiring young talent without giving any real thought to how, when, and if that player is ever going to really have a chance to shine. This is what leads to players like Kellen Clemens and Greg Jones remaining on rosters for years at a time in the hope that one day they'll turn in to a productive player. Trying to guess who will be the starting quarterback or starting running back of a certain team three years from now is a waste of time. Furthermore, holding on to a player like Alex Smith or Dwayne Jarrett because you don't want to see them pan out eventually for someone else is equally foolish. If you are thinking about next year and next year alone, you'll find that who to keep and who to cut becomes a much easier decision.
Advantage #3 - Your team probably won't be very good this year, meaning you're likely to pick early in the draft preceding the season you're gunning for. Imagine if you traded some older, useful veterans right now for players like the two I mentioned earlier AND ended up with a top selection in the 2010 draft. Not only would you already have a potent roster, you are also in a position to improve it even more without giving up any players in a trade.
Advantage #4 - The really good teams will overpay for marginal players. Every dynasty league has a handful of teams that look loaded, some more than others. These teams likely have assets that fit your strategy just as you have assets that they covet. As such, trading an older, starting player with lots of miles on him like LaDainian Tomlinson for a younger player like Jonathan Stewart might not be all that bad of an idea. The other guy, thinking only about the immediate future, may think he fleeced you and for the purposes of this year he probably has. And next season when he's trolling for a starting running back again, you'll be sitting pretty with a young player with his best years right ahead of him.
As a note, one of the cardinal rules of fantasy football is that you shouldn't tank games to improve draft position. In a way, this strategy creeps very close to that line, but never over it. If you go in to this season with JaMarcus Russell and Matt Leinart as the only quarterbacks on your new dynasty roster, so be it. If you want to trade Clinton Portis for Felix Jones, go for it. If you think that passing on Larry Johnson for Jamal Charles makes you stronger for Year 2, then do it. As long as you field the best lineup possible from your roster each week, you should have a clear conscience. Every league has teams that are bad; yours is bad simply because you're incubating players who should be very good next year. And when your strategy pays off in about 18 months as you hoist the trophy, you can rest easy.
Dynasty leagues are fun precisely because you get to build something, tinker with it, tear it down and rebuild it. My experience has been that many dynasty owners think that rebuilding is a process without specific goals. (Maybe that's why they always seem to be rebuilding.) Other owners fail to properly value younger players that can be acquired for cheap because they are too enamored with squeezing one more good season out of old horses like Jamal Lewis. By following the Year 2 strategy, you can have the best of both worlds and the worst of neither.
