Obviously - Wide Receivers

Posted 8/21 by Colin Dowling - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every year there are players that exceed their fantasy projections in a big way. And every year, we examine players looking for the next candidate most likely to blow up. The funny thing is that in almost every case, it appears obvious in hindsight who these players were going to be.

Anquan Boldin and Marques Colston burst on to the scene in an unexpected way. But a look in the rearview mirror in each of their cases shows that both were pretty obvious candidates to have great breakout seasons; they were talented receivers in offenses that we knew were going to rely heavily on the passing game. Steve Slaton was clearly talented and was in an offense that desperately needed a playmaker at running back. Furthermore, we knew that his head coach had come from a rusher's paradise in Denver. In hindsight, it was pretty obvious that he would do well. And for all the fantasy teams wrecked by Tom Brady's knee injury last season, shouldn't we have known that Patriots were too well built to embarrass themselves with an unprepared quarterback replacing him? In the first week of waiver wire pickups for 2008, Matt Cassel should have been the obvious choice.

This article isn't meant to look at "sleepers" or "value picks." We've covered those in a number of other places. Rather, I'm interested in finding some situations where it appears obvious that a player will perform well in his given role. We're going to look up in January and think that it was obvious that a certain player at a certain position on a given team was going to have a big season. I'm just hoping to help identify who those players might be ahead of time so that you have the foresight to have the "obvious" player on your team in time to benefit from his performance. This evaluation boils down to three things:

Opportunity: the player must have a reasonable chance at a starting or significant role in the offense.
System: the player must be in a system that relies heavily on his role. There's not much need to look at receivers in Tennessee or running backs in New England.
Proven Talent: I'm as big a fan of unsung talent as anyone, but let's be reasonable. Just because a guy runs fast doesn't mean he's going to be a great player. Let's see it on the field.

The following wide receivers appear to be obvious candidates for big seasons.

Chaz Schilens - Oakland Raiders
Donnie Avery - St. Louis Rams
DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles

All three of the players mentioned above are in "obvious" situations. All three of their teams lack an established number one receiver. All three are on teams that either willingly pass a lot or will be behind in the score often (and will be forced to pass a lot), or both. And all three have shown at various times that they indeed could be top-tier performers at their position. It's a perfect storm, really: system, opportunity, and talent.

Chaz Schilens

Despite the drafting of Darrius Heyward-Bey in the first round of last Spring's draft, the obvious choice at WR1 for the Raiders is second-year man Chaz Schilens. True, he is injured and is likely to miss two or three regular season games. But prior to his broken toe, Schilens was catching everything thrown his way in both practice and limited preseason action. Furthermore, rookie receivers don't often produce great numbers and just as rarely emerge as a team's number one target. Similarly, Heyward-Bey is dealing with some injuries of his own. Schilens has shown the talent and, just as importantly, the rapport with starting quarterback JaMarcus Russell to be the obvious top pass-catcher in the Oakland offense. Schilens only had 15 receptions for 226 yards last season but the experience no doubt has helped season him for the 2009 season. As of last week, Schilens was being drafted as WR69 in the 20th round. With his injury he's likely to slide even more, making him the latest (by FAR) receiver you can select with a great chance to be the #1 receiver on his team.

Donnie Avery

Donnie Avery is also injured at present but the damage appears pretty minimal. Avery is almost certain to be the number one receiver in an offense that plays on turf (speed, speed, speed). And despite the new regime's insistence that they want to run the ball more, the Rams are going to be playing from behind quite a bit. Consider this: the top receiver on the Rams has averaged and 93 receptions and 1,262 yards per season since Marc Bulger became the team's starter in 2002. Avery is being drafted a WR36 which might make some sense considering he's a young, relatively unproven, and injured. But last year's WR36 (Braylon Edwards) posted a mere 55 receptions, 877 yards, and three touchdowns - numbers Avery is likely to exceed as the WR1 in the Rams offense. Avery has a long way to go before he can be compared to Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce and the team's coaches and offense have clearly changed. But with Marc Bulger under center it seems like a pretty safe bet that someone in the Rams offense is going to post top-20 wide receiver numbers. The obvious choice is Donnie Avery, no doubt the most talented receiver on the Rams' roster.

DeSean Jackson

DeSean Jackson is in an equally enviable position. The Eagles under Andy Reid have never had a reputation for running the ball, and with the questionable status of Brian Westbrook, it's even more likely that they'll lean on the passing game. And while Donovan McNabb can be counted on to spread the ball around quite a bit, Jackson's game-breaking ability ensures that he will be given plenty of chances with the ball. Jackson may not end up with as many receptions as Avery or Schilens, but after his 2008 season (wherein he finished with 62 receptions and 912 yards as WR29) would you be the least bit shocked in hindsight if he ended up far-exceeding his ADP and putting up true WR1 numbers? He's being drafted as WR22, which shows that most folks anticipate an uptick in his production, but consider this: had Jackson totaled eight touchdowns in 2008 (clearly achievable in the Eagle offense, especially considering Jackson "dropped" a touchdown before the goalline which would have given him four), he would have finished as WR15 last season. Even with the addition of Jeremy Maclin, it's unlikely that Jackson is going to give up too many opportunities in the passing game.

There's no guarantee that any of these three receivers will break out this season. But when you carefully consider their talent, their situation, and the system in which they play it isn't too much of a reach to think that any one of them could exceed conventional expectations and be a player that you and your friends talk about next spring as being an "obvious" choice in hindsight.