The Imperfect Draft
Posted 8/12 by Colin Dowling - Exclusive to Footballguys.com
In every competitive draft there comes a point where your best-laid plans have been tossed out the window. Perhaps you missed on that crucial WR/WR selection in round 4 and 5. Maybe the three 10th round quarterbacks (Schaub, Palmer, Big Ben) whom you thought you'd have your pick of are gone by the end of round 8. Sure, you've run through a dozen mock drafts using the Draft Dominator and you've committed yourself to value-based drafting, but it's a near certainty that despite what we've encouraged you to do here at Footballguys.com, you'll STILL have a few players you're targeting on draft day. If you get them all, then great. But what happens if you don't? I'm here to help you figure out how to adjust on the fly when your version of the "perfect draft" veers dangerously off course.
The key thing to remember in a live draft is that at every pick there is value to be had. Let me repeat for affect: at every pick there is value to be had. Get more value then the other owners and your team will be strong. Give up too much value and your team will be weak. It's really very simple from the outside looking in. But when the bullets are flying and you are on the clock, it is helpful to have a few aces up your sleeve to get back on track.
One of the things I like to do to keep my draft going the way I want is to put together a few scenarios where I can find equal value on draft day two or more rounds after that value appears to be gone. In other words, if I miss out on the running back with upside I was hoping for in round 5 then I like to have a plan in place for rounds 10 through 12 that will help me get the same value when all is said and done.
For example, let's say you miss out on all of the RB3s you were planning for in round 6. Cedric Benson, LenDale White, and Jamal Lewis have all been taken earlier by other owners. Instead of panicking and selecting a lesser runner like Darren Sproles too high, why not sit tight and select a combo of Fred Taylor (11th round) and Kevin Faulk (final round) to fill your third running back slot? If that doesn't work for you, why not pair Shonn Greene (13th round) and Leon Washington (11th round)? You might say, "that's two roster spots instead of one, and how will I know which player to start?" Fair points indeed, but the idea is to not overreach for a player when there is no value and instead select a combination of players later on - much later on - that can give you similar production from week to week. It shouldn't take more then 3 or 4 weeks to know who to start between Faulk and Taylor, nor should it take more then a few weeks to see who is the better bet between Greene and Washington.
The same scenario can be put in place for quarterbacks. Say you miss out on Eli Manning (8th round ADP) when you were hoping to draft him as your QB2. Instead of overreaching for David Garrard by a few rounds, why not default to a combo of Jason Campbell and Kerry Collins in the last two rounds of your draft? Use the pick where you would have drafted the wrong quarterback too high to take a quality 4th receiver, knowing that you'll shore up the quarterback position much later.
As for receivers, the depth is staggering this season. Jerricho Cotchery (WR1 for the Jets) can be had in round 8. Ted Ginn (WR1 for Miami) can be had in round 10. Josh Morgan (the likely WR1 for San Francisco) can be had in round 13. It's far from certain that any of those players will reach the top-tier of fantasy receivers. But as the top options for their individual teams, it is a safe bet that they'll outperform their draft spots barring a major disaster. And if you miss out on Lee Evans or Anthony Gonzalez earlier on, find some relief in the fact that there are going to quality pass catchers later on to target.
One key in any draft is to not panic when things don't go your way. If you have the discipline to trust the Draft Dominator up until the end of round 16, then you'll no doubt be proud of the team you selected. Even more, you should try not to allow any one player ("If I get Ray Rice in the 8th, I'll be in great shape!") or position ("I'm taking my 2nd quarterback in round 11!") to be the determinant of your draft's success. But in the event that you are like 99% of fantasy owners out there, you're going to have some things happen on draft day that rattle you, if only for a moment. Yes, you no doubt realize you'll have to adjust when the player or players you were targeting don't slide to your draft spot. I'm simply encouraging you to find some ways to avoid prolonging the panic even further so you can capitalize on the value that's still available even when things don't go your way.
If you enter the draft with a few contingency plans like the ones above in place, you'll undoubtedly be glad that you did. You won't shudder when your plan goes off track and even better, you'll already have a counterattack in your pocket to deal with the blow. And most importantly, your team will be stronger from top to bottom when Week 1 comes around.
My advice to you is to follow the upcoming Footballguys.com "Perfect Draft" article, dive in to your projections, load them in to the Draft Dominator and trust the awesome tool that it is. But in case you don't, I assure you that it's better to walk in to the draft room with some weapons in your bag.