The Upside Of Danger

  Posted 8/5 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

I've been writing this article, "The Upside of Danger" for the last four or five years and to tell you the truth, the feedback has been mixed. On the one hand, every savvy fantasy football player wants a team that crushes the opposition. On the other hand, finding the right formula with the right players each year is a real hit or miss proposition. For every e-mail I receive lauding the strategy of drafting high-upside players, I receive one from an owner wishing they'd simply played it safe on draft day. The truth is that swinging for the fences on draft day can produce an exhilarating reward. It can also produce an awful team that ends up in the cellar. Worse then that, decisions that seemed genius on draft day become mocking points for the entire season.

This year I've decided to revamp and rewrite the article utilizing some of the lessons I've learned and that many of you have shared with me since this article first started appearing on Footballguys.com. As always, the goal here isn't to figure out which players will lead to the perfect team but rather to explore the thinking that goes in to trying to hit one out of the park on draft day.

You got your sleeper list? Good. Got your Draft Dominator tuned and tweaked? Awesome. Got your chicken wings and a couple beers on ice, ready for the draft? Excellent work, my friend. Got your stomach?

Stomach?

Yes. Because you're going to need it, and not just for the aforementioned wings and beer.

The fact of the matter is that you can build a strong team with a good chance to win using solid projections and strategy. However, put me in the category that doesn't want a strong team with a good chance to win. I want to build a team that makes the rest of my league shudder. I want people to see me on the schedule and count it as a loss. I want to build a team that makes the rest of the league realize the best they'll do is second place. You've no doubt already sighed and said, "well, duh. That's what we all want." As my retort, I'll ask you a serious question: Really?

What is Risk?

In fantasy football, "risk" is easily defined in terms of player selection: a "risky" player is one that can greatly exceed his draft position but also poses the risk of falling flat on his face. Andre Johnson isn't risky; barring injury he's bound to finish among the top receivers at his position. Conversely, Larry Johnson is a risk; if the last two seasons are any indication, he's being drafted far too high. But if the new coaches give him the ball enough and the revamped line opens holes, he could ascend to top-10 numbers pretty easily.

Why Build a "Risky" Team?

If you want to build a strong team with a good chance to win, quit reading, because I'm only going to frustrate you. If you want to build a team that has a chance to step on the throats of everyone else in your league, let's get down to business.

As more and more of your leaguemates start reading more and more about players during the offseason, much of your natural advantage has been negated. In fact, I'd be willing to bet you won't be the only person using the Draft Dominator on draft day this year. Fantasy football has become so popular and so widespread that for many of you, knowing about "Value Based Drafting" and having the most updated rankings and projections simply isn't going to be enough. Between the natural variance from week to week in player performance and the narrowing gap in knowledge between you and those that you compete against, "playing it safe" seems a borderline foolish right now. As in the pros, it seems that parity is now present in most competitive leagues. Unless you are playing with a league full of guppies, your roster is as likely to end up 4-8 as 10-2 this season. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but deep down you know I'm telling you the truth.

That's why we're here: to talk about panning for gold in streams that aren't getting much attention. We're here to talk about ways to find the next Michael Turner, the next Anquan Boldin, the next Matt Ryan.

Truth is, just like individual players, a high-reward team (which is what we're wanting to build) is often first a high-risk team. In the last few years of drafting, I've had many rosters that looked downright dreadful between draft day and opening day. And by seasons end, my teams have been juggernauts of the highest degree. Does it work every time? Of course not, but when your draft savvy and risk-taking pans out, I assure you there is not a better feeling in fantasy sports. Winning big is fun.

Now, this isn't supposed to be a study in how I personally have drafted. It's also not supposed to be encouragement for you to make silly decisions and reach for players "just because." Like most fantasy players, I've hit some out of the park and I've missed on some (like my well documented love for Robert Ferguson). However, regardless of format, the teams I've had that have led to the greatest success are NOT the teams that are built to be solid, but the team's that are built to absolutely and completely maximize point potential.

Below are some players and situations that strike me as being players that can maximize point potential. Whether you agree with my assessments or not, at least try to see the logic I'm using and apply it to the players you are considering as well. Some of these guys may strike you as obvious value plays, while others look insane. Fair enough; I'm just trying to get you thinking about how to stock a roster full of guys that can blow up in the absolute best way rather then a roster of guys that don't have much room to improve.

• Cincinnati Bengals Offense - The entire Bengals offense appears to me to be a perfect storm of talent and draft-position value. Last year's results were downright awful and the team's losing ways seem to have depressed the value of the offense's skill-position players. While it can be easy to identify a team like Cincinnati early on and get burned later (a la the Browns last season), the upside is enormous if the gamble pays off.
  • Carson Palmer - Quarterback - I'm pulling my hair out at the relative silence surrounding him this offseason. If I were forced to choose one player to outperform their ADP by half this season, it would be Carson Palmer. He is being selected as the 10th or 11th quarterback off the board right now and I cannot fathom a scenario in which he plays 15+ games and doesn't reenter the top-5 at the position. The funny thing about Palmer is that between the knee injury against the Steelers and last season's arm injury, he's picked up the "injury prone" label. The reality is that the only regular season time he's missed to injury since HIGH SCHOOL was last season, and all reports from Palmer and the Bengals are that he's back to 100%. Most rankings are handling Palmer with kid gloves since we haven't seen him at full speed since the injury. Fair enough, but if we take Palmer at his word that he's healthy, his upside is absolutely off the charts. The Bengals' line should be improved with bulldozer Andre Smith on board. Chad Ochocinco is bragging about how good he's going to play this season. Factor in that Palmer in his first three seasons as a full-time starter averaged right around 4,000 yards passing and 28 touchdowns and it boggles the mind how anyone would be blind to the value he offers.
  • Cedric Benson - Running Back - Cedric Benson's NFL career has been marginal at best. He's shown flashes of talent but mostly he's disappointed fantasy owners year in and year out. Why should 2009 be different? For starters, Benson is the inarguable starter at his position for his team. Even better, he has the benefit of an improved offensive line to run behind with the addition of tackle Andre Smith. Furthermore, the return of Carson Palmer should only help Benson have more room to run wild. Last season, with bad quarterback play and without the benefit of a full training camp with his new team, Benson was able to produce 747 yards on the ground. Despite a poor average per carry (3.5 YPC), Benson would have cracked 1,000 yards had he played the whole season. He finished 42nd among running backs. Is it so hard to imagine that with a full training camp, a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback, and an improved line he won't be able to crack 1,000 yards and 7 or more touchdowns?
  • Chris Henry - Wide Receiver - All of the offseason news about Henry and the man who will be throwing him the ball, Carson Palmer, appears to be off the charts in a good way. Palmer has suggested that Henry could have a "Randy Moss type of career" and Henry's history in the league has shown that he has the ability to make the most of his catches. It will be a shock if Chris Henry doesn't win the starting job opposite Chad Ochocinco and with that opportunity, would it be all that surprising to see him near 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns? Henry's career average of almost 15 yards per reception is excellent and with enough chances on the field, he could certainly erupt in to a fantasy force.
• Larry Johnson - Running Back - Kansas City Chiefs - I mentioned Johnson earlier as a risky pick, and it's true: he could easily be mediocre this season and at the cost of a 4th or 5th round selection, that could be a tough pill to swallow. But folks seem to forget that Johnson missed 4 games last season to suspension, not injury, and he appears to be getting along just fine with the new coaching regime. True, the mileage he's acquired over the years may be too much to overcome but its important to remember that LJ finished as the 28th ranked running back last season despite only playing in 12 games, only receiving 205 touches, and only scoring 5 touchdowns. He bounced back from a poor 2007 to average 4.5 yards per carry and almost 73 yards per game. Prorated over a full season he could easily eclipse 1200 yards and garner 8 or 9 touchdowns. And if he catches a couple of breaks, a 1,400 yard season with double-digit touchdowns (which would place him easily in the top-10 of running backs) would not be out of the question.
• Matt Schaub - Quarterback - Houston Texans - Okay, you've got me. Like Carson Palmer, Schaub is unique in that he is being drafted at or after QB10 and has shown time and again that, when healthy, he can be among the game's elite passers. In 11 games last season, Schaub tossed for more than 3,000 yards and 15 touchdowns. More to the point, after a slow start in weeks 1 and 2, Schaub threw for 14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and 2,653 yards in 9 games. Over an entire season, those are great fantasy numbers (4,716 yards, 25 touchdowns, 9 interceptions). Granted, Schaub has to stay healthy (which has eluded him in his two seasons as a starter) but the payoff is gargantuan; he could finish in the top 3 or 4 at the position as long as he stays on the field.
• Felix Jones - Running Back - Dallas Cowboys - I like Marion Barber a great deal. Frankly, I've long been in the camp that wondered why a guy with Barber's talent had to leave school early because Laurence Maroney had taken his job. When Barber slid on draft day, I was completely shocked. His ability was clear very early in his college career. That said, 2008 may have shown that Barber is best suited to perform with limited touches in the right situations rather then as a bell-cow. As a result, Felix Jones is a very intriguing prospect this season. Jones has more talent then Julius Jones and in a similar role should produce equal or superior numbers. Felix averaged a mind-boggling 8.9 yards per carry last season, mostly on the back of some long runs. But that's what makes him interesting; the ability to break loose for a touchdown every time he touches the ball. It is conceivable that Felix Jones could carry the ball a relatively few number of times (150 or so) and still rack up great numbers. No, he isn't likely to average nearly 9 yards per touch, but he could run for 5 yards per carry and near double-digit touchdowns if he can stay healthy. Those are SUBSTANTIALLY better numbers then what can be expected from the players he is being drafted near.
• Michael Crabtree - Wide Receiver - San Francisco 49ers - Rookie receivers can be the pits. And I expect Crabtree to have some early difficulties adjusting. But assuming he gets his contract settled soon, he will undeniably be the most talented pass-catcher in an offense desperate for a star. He's being drafted high (WR34 - ADP of 91) but his upside even as a rookie is off the charts. At the end of the year, he may well finish as a 2nd or 3rd wide receiver in fantasy leagues but my guess is that his production will be amazingly inconsistent: a game of 2 catches for 17 yards followed by a game of 11 catches for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns. If you play in a league where starting lineups are not submitted and "best scores" are counted, Crabtree is an excellent choice this season.

As I mentioned earlier, this isn't an article intended to push certain players on you but rather an article intended to help you look for opportunity that others might be missing. And then to pull the trigger when that opportunity is starting at you on draft day. You'll have some misses but when you hit on the running back that doubles his projected totals or the quarterback in the 10th round who makes the Pro Bowl, you'll be glad that you did your homework and then trusted your gut on draft day.