Three of A Kind
Posted 8/31 by Colin Dowling, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The decision on how many quarterbacks to draft and roster usually seems pretty obvious. If you select a premier passer - Brees, Brady, or Manning - you'll probably grab a Chad Pennington type of backup in a late round. If you select a quarterback like Tony Romo or Donovan McNabb, you'll likely take a backup like Eli Manning or Kyle Orton in rounds 11-13. And if you opt for a "quarterback by committee" you'll likely spend two picks in rounds 7 - 11 on players like Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer. Case closed, seems pretty simple.
But one strategy that garners very little discussion is this: should you take a third quarterback? Every league is different. Different rules, different owners, different trends. But there is actually a fairly compelling case to be made for selecting a third quarterback in the latter rounds on draft day. Keep in mind I'm not talking about handcuffs to your stud (a la Matt Cassel last season) but rather players that will begin the season as the starters for their NFL teams.
The reasons you WOULDN'T select a third quarterback are pretty obvious: a third quarterback takes up a roster spot that could be used on a deep-sleeper and the chances of playing your third quarterback are pretty slim. Fair enough.
But have you ever considered the strategic impact of taking a third quarterback? For example, in "best ball" leagues, having a third quarterback virtually insures you will have at least average production every week from the position. And when your stud starter is on a bye week (or, gulp, if he gets injured) you still have plenty of coverage.
Additionally, your third quarterback selection could actually pay dividends during the season. Players like Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, and Derek Anderson have come from being late (or undrafted) fantasy selections to post top-10 seasons in recent years. While it would be silly to think it's a certainty that a late-pick quarterback is inevitably going to end up in the top-10, it is important to remember that such an instance isn't as unlikely as you might think.
Another reason to select a third quarterback comes down to simple math: the more starters you roster, the fewer there are available for your league mates. Most leagues are 12 team leagues, which doesn't do much for taking talent from the competition. But in leagues that have 16 or more teams, having a third quarterback can be a big deal. In a 16 team league, the math says that there are enough starting quarterbacks for each team to roster two. If you end up with three, then that means someone in your league only has one starting quarterback. Bye weeks, bad weeks - all of a sudden a team with only one quarterback becomes very vulnerable during the season.
Even better, there are quarterbacks available in the last couple of rounds of your draft that CAN be reasonably expected to offer solid production. Kerry Collins, for example, has never finished outside the top-25 of quarterbacks when he has started for his team. Jake Delhomme is admittedly in a run-heavy offense, but he has Steve Smith to throw to and isn't in any jeopardy of losing his job to a backup this season. Marc Bulger hasn't been a very good quarterback in recent years, but he has decent young receivers to throw to and also won't be losing his job this year. Are any of them going to finish in the top-10? Almost certainly not. But would it surprise you for any one them to to be a top-20 quarterback?
The most overlooked part of the strategy of having three quarterbacks is that the cost of drafting one is pretty low: you're giving up a second kicker, a second defense, or a "sleeper" running back or wide receiver that isn't likely to offer much this season either.
Finally, having a third quarterback can open up a world of trade possibilities for your squad. Let's say you select Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger as your quarterback committee and spend your last pick on Chad Pennington. Week 20 rolls around and you feel your team is one good running back from being the "team to beat" in your league. Trading for another running back can be tricky; it makes no sense to trade one of your running backs for another running back. No one is likely to give you a productive rusher in exchange for one of your receivers. But if you have two top-10 quarterbacks on your roster already, you might be able to trade one away for the running back you desperately want. Your remaining quarterback can be your cornerstone for the stretch run while the third passer you rostered already provides you with a solid backup.
Having three quarterbacks on your roster means you'll be sacrificing depth somewhere else. But that doesn't make it a bad idea. There are lots of good reasons to roster three quarterbacks and the cost is very low. So one draft day when you're filling out your roster in the late rounds, don't just consider flyers on running backs and receivers with a small chance to produce for you. Give some thought to taking a third quarterback. You'd be surprised at the opportunities it will afford you as the season progresses.