The Perfect Draft (12-team PPR League - WCOFF Format)

Posted 8/29 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the fourth of a five-part series. The other versions will be 10-team, 12-team, 14-team and Auction formats.

Key Reference Material (Print out before your WCOFF Draft):

WCOFF Drafting Ranges
WCOFF Average Draft Position
WCOFF - Number Drafted

These articles are from 2005, but the scoring has not changed at all so the data should still be very accurate. The only piece that seems to have changed a bit is that the top QBs generally go a few picks sooner than this article indicates.

You need to approach this draft as if you are trying to end up with the best team out of the 900+ that will be playing. This is possibly the most important point. Beating 11 owners and qualifying for the big dance with a roster that can never win the event should not be the desired outcome. Things that work in your normal 12 team league can be counter-productive to fielding a winning WCOFF team.

Specifically, I think these things are LOSING plays in WCOFF:

Handcuffing players with two picks in the first 8 rounds. You need to pick a side and gamble that it is correct. Handcuffs waste a roster spot. If you backup LaDainian Tomlinson with Darren Sproles, are you really going to win the league if Tommlinson is hobbled by week 5?

Taking a QB before round 7. This has to do with the rules (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex + PPR). Take a look at how things change for the top QB as the rules change (from the VBD App):

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Brady = 7th overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, no PPR) - Brady = 9th overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (no flex, PPR) - Brady - 16th overall
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE (flex, PPR) - Brady - 26th overall (WCOFF Rules)

This effect is even more evident when you examine where Peyton Manning ends up (44th with WCOFF scoring). Suffice it to say all of the elite QBs will be taken too early. Wait until the 8th round and then get ready to pounce on one of the best players left.

Taking a TE early. Every year someone flying way below the radar at TE puts up solid numbers. Using a fourth rounder for someone like Witten, Gates or Gonzalez will have you lagging behind all the owners that fielded a productive TE after round 10. I would look at the TE position in round 7 or later.

Drafting a second QB, first defense and/or first PK in the first 2/3 of the draft. The RBs and WRs are going to dry up. You need to have your share of these players to improve your chances that one emerges. Use your last picks to secure your second QB and first PK and defense. Do not draft more than one kicker or defense.

I have examined a lot of winning rosters over the years and believe the winning teams had this in common:

Winning teams usually took a RB in the first round (Sometimes your draft position dictates going WR in round 1). After 5 rounds, these teams usually had 2 RBs and 3WRs.

Drafting RB, RB, RB with your first three picks is generally a LOSING strategy. In fact, the biggest key to winning is finding that all or nothing RB later in the draft so you can stockpile elite WRs in rounds 2 and 3.

The most common winning team design started with the first four picks as follows:
RB, WR, RB, WR and RB, WR, WR, RB

Winning teams roster a LOT of WRs. With the ability to start 4 on any given week, the WR position is VERY valuable in this format.

Winning teams had a solid CORE (first 6 picks) and many fliers AFTER that. These teams also were very active in the blind bidding process through the season.

Some of their HOMERUNS hit (either by the draft or waivers) to give them a very solid lineup every week. These homeruns by definition are not value picks. They are swings for the fences. Most end up being whiffs, but some (when hit) catapult teams to the top of this event.

Teams drafted to win their first eleven games. You need to have the best record or the most points after 11 games to play in week for the right to join the Championship bracket (where all the big money is). So choosing second half guys (rookies, drug suspensions, tough early schedules, etc with any early picks is a recipe for disaster). Wins are important NOW.

Playoff teams usually took advantage of the Thursday night stats (ie paying a slight premium for the studs from the early game and avoiding those players that stunk). If selecting some of these players gets you a week 1 win, that is indeed significant. The Sharks took Charlie Batch a few years ago after he lit up the scoreboard in a Thursday night game with the sole purpose of using him in week 1 and then dropping him.

All things being equal (same projected fantasy points), take the WR or TE that catches a lot of balls over the redzone TD producer. Guys like Cotchery and Cooley excel in PPR leagues because of all of their catches. If the TDs ever come, you could have an elite producer.

Generally, If I took a RB in round 1, I would look to grab WRs in rounds 2 and 3.

If I took a WR in round 1, I would look to take a RB in round 2 and a WR in round 3.

In rounds 4 and 5 I would make selections based on value to get my roster to be 3WRs and 2 RBs.

Let's have the perfect WCOFF draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 12 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 Def and 1 PK. It also assumes this scoring criteria: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 1 point per reception, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, -1 points for interceptions.

In a 12-team draft, there is pressure to grab the quality RBs before they are gone. In a WCOFF draft, there is pressure on RBs and WRs while the rest of the positions generally slide until teams have 2 RBs and 3 WRs. This point is important, because failure to lock up solid RBs and WRs within the first few rounds of the draft will likley cost you a chance at competing for the title.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 5th round (60 picks). If you are still using this list in the 7th round, you are positioned well to make a strong run in this contest

Creating the Perfect 50 List for WCOFF Leagues. Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Footballguys Top 300 PPR with ADP to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the PPR Top 300 list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50).

RB1 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac/7
RB2 Adrian Peterson, Min/9
RB3 Steven Jackson, StL/9
WR1 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/4
WR2 Andre Johnson, Hou/10
RB4 Matt Forte, Chi/5
WR3 Randy Moss, NE/8
RB5 Ladainian Tomlinson, SD/5
RB6 Frank Gore, SF/6
RB7 Chris Johnson, Ten/7
RB8 DeAngelo Williams, Car/4
WR4 Calvin Johnson, Det/7
RB9 Steve Slaton, Hou/10
RB10 Brian Westbrook, Phi/4
RB11 Michael Turner, Atl/4
WR5 Steve Smith, Car/4
WR6 Roddy White, Atl/4
QB1 Tom Brady, NE/8
RB12 Marion Barber, Dal/6
RB13 Ronnie Brown, Mia/6
RB14 Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10
WR7 Reggie Wayne, Ind/6
WR8 Greg Jennings, GB/5
RB15 Kevin Smith, Det/7
WR9 Anquan Boldin, Ari/4
WR10 Dwayne Bowe, KC/8
RB16 Clinton Portis, Was/8
QB2 Drew Brees, NO/5
WR11 Wes Welker, NE/8
RB17 Pierre Thomas, NO/5
RB18 Darren McFadden, Oak/9
TE1 Jason Witten, Dal/6
WR12 Marques Colston, NO/5
WR13 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea/7
WR14 Chad Ochocinco, Cin/8
QB3 Peyton Manning, Ind/6
RB19 Reggie Bush, NO/5
WR15 Braylon Edwards, Cle/9
TE2 Antonio Gates, SD/5
RB20 Ryan Grant, GB/5
QB4 Aaron Rodgers, GB/5
WR16 Eddie Royal, Den/7
RB21 Marshawn Lynch, Buf/9
WR17 Anthony Gonzalez, Ind/6
QB5 Philip Rivers, SD/5
WR18 Santonio Holmes, Pit/8
WR19 Brandon Marshall, Den/7
TE3 Tony Gonzalez, Atl/4
WR20 DeSean Jackson, Phi/4
RB22 Ray Rice, Bal/7

The First 50 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. You must take at least one RB within the first three rounds of the draft (no exceptions). Additionally limit yourself to at most one QB or TE from this list. If you draft a QB because he represents value, then you must wait and get a TE late (drafted after the top 50 is depleted). Conversely if you draft a TE early, then you must wait and get a QB late.

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after the Top 50 players are gone.

After the Top 50 Players are Taken - Assessment / Building Your Core Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

How many backs did you secure? The average owner should have 1.8. Do you have at least two? Is this a position of strength for your team? If the answer is no, this should be your prime objective

Did you draft a QB or TE yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until very late in the draft. If you have not drafted these positions yet, do not panic. Good ones will be available late in your WCOFF draft.

Assess your bye week situation. If two or more of your first four players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland and Atlanta should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 5 rounds (from the 3rd position):

5. RB Steven Jackson, StL/9
20. WR Steve Smith, Car/4
29. RB Kevin Smith, Det/7
44. WR Braylon Edwards, Cle/9
53. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Ind/6

This is generally where you want to be. You have a slight week 9 bye issue, but have time to recover from that. You have two solid backs and three receivers.

So in this example your next steps would be:

Grab another starting running back in the next two rounds (before they dry up).
Add one WR in the next three rounds (without a week 9 bye).
Add either your starting QB or TE in the next 3 rounds.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 0-1 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0-1 TE after 8 rounds.

Here is another example (drafting from the 11th position):

11. RB Frank Gore, SF/6
14. WR Calvin Johnson, Det/7
35. WR Dwayne Bowe, KC/8
38. TE Jason Witten, Dal/6
59. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Ind/6

Assessing where you are at:

You have a strong WR core with three top receivers. This is not a position of need, but you should likely add one in the 7th or 8th round for depth..
You have just one RB. This should be your top priority since you need to start 2 each week and the good ones will dry up fast. Look to grab a RB in the next round and another in round 7 or 8.
You have the best TE. Wait until late in the draft to add a backup
You do not have a QB, but since you took a TE early, you need to wait until late so that you do not miss out on key core talent in the next three rounds.
You have three top players on a week 6 bye. Suffice it to say you are likely going to lose this game. But there is still time to round out your squad so that you at least can field a team that week.

Fast-forwarding this roster, you should have 1 QB, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0 TE after 8 rounds.

See the theme here? That's right.

The Perfect WCOFF Draft should have 0-1 QBs, 3 RBs, 4 WRs and 0-1 TEs after 8 rounds.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a WCOFF league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

Jay Cutler, Chi/5 (Value = 71, ADP = 70) in the 7th or later - Jay Cutler hopes to step into the Bears offense and help to morph the attack from a conservative ground-and-pound approach to an aggressive bombs-away mentality. He definitely has the swagger and ability to throw the ball down the field, but he needs to have people catch the ball. With luck, he will find nice chemistry with TE Greg Olsen while receivers Devin Hester and Rashied Davis continue to improve their craft.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pit/8 (Value = 76, ADP = 94) in the 8th or later - Two years ago Big Ben was a Top 6 fantasy QB, but a new offensive philosophy coupled with a tougher schedule made for a barely Top 20 performance in 2008. The Steelers plan to protect Roethlisberger better this year and give him more time to make plays through the air.

David Garrard (Value = 86, ADP = 106) in the 8th or later - Since David Garrard took the reins in Jacksonville midway through the 2006 season, his top receivers have been Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt, and Ernest Wilford - not exactly an all-star cast. This season he'll have seven-time Pro Bowler Torry Holt in the mix. Holt had a down year in 2008, but he still outperformed each of Jacksonville's WRs. If Holt can bounce back and give Garrard a legitimate playmaker to throw to on the outside (and if the Jaguars' offensive line can offer him some protection), Garrard possibly could challenge for a spot among the Top 5 fantasy QBs.

I would then target these backups later in the draft

Kyle Orton, Den (Value = 109, ADP = 125) in the 11th or later - Kyle Orton comes to Denver from Chicago and suddenly finds himself surrounded by superior talent. The Broncos have a better offensive line, better wide receivers, and arguably a better ground game than the Bears which could mean that Orton is primed for a banner year. Add in the fact that he will now be coached by QB guru Josh McDaniels and it only enhances his potential production. Additionally the Denver defense looks to be among the worst in the league in 2009. Orton will be asked to air it out a lot in the second half of games as the team plays from behind. Last year, Cutler had a whopping 616 pass attempts and rode those attempts to a 5th place final QB ranking. If Orton is even close to this production, he will smash his ADP.

Jason Campbell, Was (Value = 117, ADP = 150) in the 13th round or later - After completing a career-best 62.3 percent of his passes and throwing the fewest interceptions per pass in the league, Campbell has something to build upon. If he can shake off the team's overtures to replace him and show a willingness to take more chances downfield, this year, Campbell could surprise and be a fringe Top 12 passer. His athleticism and mobility (258 yards rushing in 2008) add upside beyond what should be solid but not spectacular passing stats.

Joe Flacco, Bal (Value = 128, ADP = 151) in the 13th round or later - The theory goes, the biggest leap forward a quarterback will make is between his first and second seasons as a starter. Considering Joe Flacco took his team to within a game of the Super Bowl, a significant increase in productivity would be music to Baltimore's ears. Flacco will go into the season with three legitimate runners to help the ground game, all of his receivers back in town, and an additional tight end in L.J. Smith. What's more, in an interesting twist, the defensive losses for Baltimore could be Flacco's gain. If the Ravens play fewer close, smash-mouth style games, the potential could be there for the team to air it out a bit more. He has already proven that he throws a very good deep ball - why not use it a bit more?

Shaun Hill, SF (Value = 155, ADP = 190) in the 15th round or later - To illustrate Shaun Hill's fantasy potential, if his 2008 stats were pro-rated over 16 games, he would have been a Top 6 fantasy QB. Shaun Hill averaged 22.2 FP/G in the 8.5 games he played in 2008. That's only half a point behind Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Hill has been a very consistent performer the past two seasons -- he's scored over 12 points in each of his 12 games. Hill does not have a pretty arm and he's been bolstered by an easy strength of schedule. But whenever he starts against a weak defense, he's a good bet to score around 20 FPs.

JaMarcus Russell, Oak (Value = 167, ADP = 208) in the 17th round or later - JaMarcus Russell finished the 2008 season on a hot streak, throwing six TDs and two INTs in the final three games. Although his rookie year, pre-season holdout really slowed his initial development, Russell seemingly played better with each start in 2008. Some are quick to write off the big QB from LSU because of his documented weight issues, lack of consistency with his passing mechanics, and working for one the NFL's most confounding owners, Al Davis. When it's all said and done, Russell has top-flight athleticism and arm strength.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

Ray Rice, Bal (Value = 46, ADP = 62) in the fifth round or later - Willis McGahee's knee gave him a lot of trouble last season in the early going. And for all of his production, Le'Ron McClain still averaged fewer than four yards per carry. Ray Rice, meanwhile, was drafted in the second round, produced when the team needed him to, and led the three backs in yards per carry. He has excellent skills and has earned himself a greater piece of the rushing pie in 2009.

Leon Washington, NYJ (Value = 66, ADP = 91) in the eighth round or later - Leon Washington is arguably the Jets most explosive offensive weapon. While he's not going to be called upon to be the main ball carrier, he is talented enough to be worked into a true committee approach under the new coaching regime. Ideally, Washington will emerge as one of the team's leading receivers and will be given 5-10 carries a game as the offense looks to spread the field.

Ernest Graham, TB (Value = 67, ADP = 105) in the eighth round or later - Earnest Graham was slowed by an ankle ligament injury last year, but all signs point to him being fully healed. Graham is only one year removed from being the 11th ranked fantasy RB and could find himself as a major contributor in the Buccaneers running game, teaming with Derrick Ward to give the Bucs a solid one-two punch.

Fred Jackson, Buf (Value = 74, ADP = 104) in the ninth round or later - Jackson has emerged as a very reliable backup to Marshawn Lynch over the past two years. He took on a much bigger workload in 2008, averaging almost 10 touches per game. That could continue in 2009 with Lynch missing the first 3 games while serving a suspension.

Chester Taylor, Min (Value = 82, ADP = 116) in the ninth round or later - He is known more for backing up Adrian Peterson, but catches enough passes to be a solid backup too. And if something were to happen to Peterson, his stock would go through the roof.

Tim Hightower, Ari (Value = 83, ADP = 98) in the ninth round or later - With rookie Beanie Wells seemingly made of glass, it looks as if Hightower will get first chance at carrying the rushing load for the Cardinals.

Kevin Faulk, NE (Value = 87, ADP = 167) in the 11th round or later - In the 2008 season, Kevin Faulk played on more offensive plays than any other Patriots' running back. He is extremely active in the passing game and had an impressive 58 receptions last year. Imagine being a defense and having to stop Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway and Kevin Faulk. Despit being in a possible 4-way committee, Faulk has a clear role in the passing game and on third downs.

Jerious Norwood, Atl (Value = 95, ADP = 128) in the 11th round or later - Jerious Norwood is a fine pass-catching RB who is a perfect complement to Michael Turner. He was the 37th-best fantasy RB in the land last year, making Norwood a viable fill-in player in weeks when the matchup was particularly good, and he's a spectacular insurance policy for Turner. Norwood is a threat to take the football to the house on any given play - he has killer speed. If the need arises, he could step into the starting/featured role in Atlanta - his career average rushing the ball is 5.8 yards per carry, and he has averaged 9.4 yards per reception during his time in the NFL thus far.

Fred Taylor, NE (Value = 106, ADP = 132) in the 11th round or later - Fred Taylor seemed to drink from the fountain of youth in 2006 and 2007, averaging over five yards a carry each year in a job-share situation with Maurice Jones-Drew. Taylor should take over as the primary back for New England this season. He won't be a workhorse, but he could still see 10-15 carries and maybe more if he gets it going in any given game.

Ricky Williams, Mia (Value = 110, ADP = 152) in the 12th round or later - Expect more of the same from Ricky Williams this year. The limited carries are helping to extend his career, and he has become a respected veteran in the locker room. He may finish with fewer carries this season if Ronnie Brown can handle a bigger workload, but Williams could also get a couple of starts should Brown get nicked up.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Hines Ward, Pit (Value = 47, ADP = 66) in the sixth round or later - Hines Ward's fantasy production has been up and down his entire career and his best case scenario is reliant on his durability. If healthy he should once again be Ben Roethlisberger's most trusted target and should easily surpass 100 targets. It's not out of the question to expect Ward to compile over 1,000 receiving yards and a handful of TDs. This would make him a fantasy starter, but not a WR1 in most fantasy leagues.

Santana Moss, Was (Value = 48, ADP = 64) in the sixth round or later - Is there a harder receiver in the league to forecast? After a 1,483-yard season in 2005, Santana Moss' numbers fell across the board in 2006 and 2007, making him a risky proposition heading into 2008. But just as fantasy owners began to discount him, Moss puts together a Top 20 fantasy season. As long as Jason Campbell evolves in his second year running Jim Zorn's offense, Moss could easily match or top last year's solid showing.

Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ (Value = 59, ADP = 74) in the seventh round or later - Jerricho Cotchery has been on the cusp of a breakout season for the last two years. Laveranues Coles is now gone, leaving Cotchery as the No. 1 guy. Cotchery should see his passing targets increase by a large number, and his red zone looks should increase as well. He might be able to put up Top 15 stats even if he doesn't actually play better simply because of the volume of passes that will be headed his way.

Devin Hester, Chi (Value = 61, ADP = 89) in the seventh round or later - He was open on a lot of deep routes at the end of last year that Kyle Orton struggled to connect with. Cutler has one of the prettiest deep balls in the game making Hester a threat to score often this year. He had improved noticeably as a WR by the end of last season.

Donnie Avery, StL (Value = 73, ADP = 90) in the eighth round or later - With Torry Holt departed for Jacksonville, the torch has been passed to Donnie Avery, who now becomes the Rams' top WR. Avery is a sure bet to lead the team in targets, and he has the YAC ability to thrive in a West Coast-style offense. With steady play from the Rams offensive line and quarterback, Avery has the potential for a Top 20 fantasy season.

Domenik Hixon, NYG (Value = 92, ADP = 109) in the 9th round or later - A non factor in his first two years in the league, Hixon was the surprise of Giants camp last year. Thought to be a long shot to make the 53-man roster, Hixon played so well that he started the season as the WR3. He eventually worked his way into a starting role. While his numbers weren't gaudy (43 receptions for 596 yards and 2 TDs), he was on pace for 70+ receptions after becoming a starter. With Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer gone, the Giants are counting on Hixon to pick up where he left off. You can't rule out a 1,000-yard campaign, but that will depend mainly on whether other young receivers like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks can outplay Hixon.

Josh Morgan, SF (Value = 97, ADP = 120) in the 10th round or later - Michael Crabtree isn't signed and appears destined for a long holdout. His absence has paved the way for camp standout Josh Morgan who is turning heads daily. And even if Crabtree signs and plays well enough to crack the starting lineup, the loser will likely be veteran Isaac Bruce not Josh Morgan. This is a player you should land on everyone of your fantasy teams this year.

Chris Henry, Cin (Value = 102, ADP = 133) in the 11th round or later - The Cincinnati offense should have a solid turnaround this season. With the return of Carson Palmer, the passing lanes will open up for all of the WRs on the Bengals, including Chris Henry. Chad Ochocinco was recently called out by Palmer for missing OTA's, and in the same breath, Palmer praised Henry for a great offseason. Laveranues Coles is a quality guy, but he isn't going to steal as many targets like T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Those factors should give Henry plenty of chances to redeem himself after two years of subpar performance.

Michael Jenkins, Atl (Value = 114, ADP = 149) in the 12th round or later - Jenkins made big improvement in terms of yards per reception last year - if he can add another 20 or so receptions to his numbers from last year, he'd become a viable #3 fantasy WR. Matt Ryan will benefit from another season of NFL experience/reps this year. If Ryan takes his game to the next level, Jenkins would likely rise with the tide, too.

Nate Burleson, Sea (Value = 118, ADP = 160) in the 13th round or later - Nate Burleson was on his way to being a productive starter and punt returner in Seattle before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 1. Burleson has looked healthy in OTAs and is already turning heads in training camp. He should beat out the often-injured Deion Branch for the starting job opposite marquee free agent pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Earl Bennett, Chi (Value = 121, ADP = 146) in the 13th round or later - The Bears passing attack is going to improve this season. A decent bet to step up may be 2008 third-round draft choice Earl Bennett, who was Jay Cutler's go-to guy for a season at Vanderbilt. He will definitely earn some playing time this year, and he could finish with strong numbers if everything falls into place.

Joey Galloway, NE (Value = 140, ADP = 198) in the 15th round or later - Some might think Galloway is washed up, but when the Patriots don't, it's best to assume the old vet has something left in the tank. Galloway's foot never was quite right last year, but now he is the #3 in what promises to be the most productive passing offense in the league.

Devin Thomas, Was (Value = 149, ADP = 215) in the 16th round or later - Thomas has already been named the starter opposite of Santana Moss this year. With his size (6'2", 215 pounds), Thomas could catch 50+ catches and a half dozen scores if he's able to hold on to the starting job all season long.

Robert Meachem, NO (Value = 160, ADP = 212) in the 16th round or later - Some people may have already written off former first-round pick Robert Meachem after a disappointing rookie season, but we say not so fast. Meachem's ADP is WR71 right now, and he's not even getting drafted in some leagues. Keep his name in the back of your head if Lance Moore or Marques Colston continue to struggle with injury. The Saints' passing game is one of the best in the league, and Meachem could start to live up to his draft status.

Michael Clayton, TB (Value = 173, ADP = 251) in the 17th round or later - If you've been a fantasy player for a number of years then you're probably familiar with Michael Clayton's rookie season in 2004 that featured 80 catches for nearly 1200 yards. Unfortunately that has been the highlight of his career so far. Injuries, confidence issues and different QB tendencies have kept him at bay since his electric rookie season. The Bucs decided to re-sign Clayton to a five-year $24 million dollar contract. Apparently they like what he has to offer. With the departure of Joey Galloway, he will be the team's number two WR and should see an increase in production as a result. The first two options in the passing game will be Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow, but Clayton could have a nice complementary season with timely catches.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab quality receivers early and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends

PPR leagues do spread out the tight end scoring a lot more than standard leagues. This makes this position something to watch throughout the draft. Usually the elite guys go to early (Witten, Gates, and Gonzalez) and I expect that trend to continue this season. Here are the TEs I will be targeting after th top 5o platers have been drafted:

Greg Olsen (Value = 58, ADP = 69) in the sixth round or later - Greg Olsen became a legitimate top-ten fantasy tight end in 2008 and is still getting better. He has the ability to outrun linebackers and run over defensive backs. Someday he'll be a Top 5 TE. His best-case scenario is if he develops a rapport with Jay Cutler, becoming a favorite target like Jason Witten is for Tony Romo. With the questionable receiving corps in Chicago, Olsen could finish with 80+ receptions for 900+ yards if everything falls into place.

Zach Miller (Value = 88, ADP = 107) in the 10th round or later - Some people expected Zach Miller to finish as a Top 10 fantasy TE in 2008 and despite a slow start he nearly made it. After a Week 3 game against Buffalo where he finished with 0 catches the light finally came on for Miller and QB JaMarcus Russell. His numbers would have been much better if he had more than one TD grab - a number he should easily surpass in 2009. The Raiders added more weapons to the WR corps, but Miller should remain the No. 1 or No. 2 target in the passing game. With Darrius Heyward-Bey running deep routes it should open up coverage over the middle for Miller to exploit.

Dustin Keller (Value = 103, ADP = 112) in the 10th round or later - The Jets should have a lot of receiving targets available with the departure of Laveranues Coles and Chris Baker, and Dustin Keller could be a prime beneficiary. That's without factoring in any improvement from the second year tight end, who was already a fantasy factor as a rookie. Keller has excellent ball skills and is more of a Dallas Clark-type than a Bubba Franks-type. In other words, he's a receiver first and a blocker second.

Vernon Davis, SF (Value = 131, ADP 164) in the 13th round or later - Vernon Davis has the size and speed to be a very good fantasy TE. The departure of Mike Martz should result in Davis being used in more passing situations. The new offensive scheme emulates Kansas City's, and if Davis can be half as good as Tony Gonzalez, then fantasy owners may get a pleasant surprise. Davis is adequate as both a receiver and blocker and should play the majority of snaps.

Tony Scheffler, Den (Value = 148, ADP = 183) in the 15th round or later - When head coach Josh McDaniels first arrived in Denver some wondered if he would use TE Tony Scheffler enough in his offense. It became clear early in camp that the young coach indeed did have a big role for the talented tight end. Orton and Scheffler have developed a great chemistry in their short time together, and fantasy owners could pick up Scheffler as a TE2 with TE1 upside.

Randy McMichael, StL (Value = 190, ADP = 224) in the 17th round or later - Up through the time when McMichael first injured his leg in week four last year, he had 21 out of the 21 targets directed to the Rams' TE position. In other words, when he is healthy, McMichael has a lock on the starting TE position and figures prominently in the offense. During his five seasons in Miami, McMichael averaged 56 receptions for 619 yards, so he can be a productive pass-catcher when he is healthy. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is installing a west coast offense in St. Louis similar to what the Chiefs had run for much of Tony Gonzalez's career. The TE will be used to stretch the field vertically in addition to getting his share of looks underneath. McMichael was a starting-quality fantasy tight end in each of his seasons with the Dolphins, and although he is an underdog to reach that status again, it is not out of the question.

Place Kickers

In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that draft this position real late (most leagues), look towards the top of the kicker list in round 14. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 12 to assess what to do about this position. If Pittsburgh is still on the board, grab them. If they are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Green Bay Packers (ADP = 166) and Arizona Cardinals (ADP = 207). Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

Miami Dolphins(Value = 177, ADP = 188) in the 16th round or later
Jacksonville Jaguars (Value = 193, ADP = 230) in the 17th round or later

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Detroit, Cleveland, Denver, or Oakland, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

In Summary

Use the Top 50 List to grab as much "core" talent as possible

Assess your strengths and weaknesses after the Top 50 picks are gone. Look to fill in your roster as well as adding more RB and WR depth should significant value be present.

At the end of 8 rounds, you should have 1 QB or TE, 3 RBs and 4 WRs

QB value is available throughout the draft so just wait until it emerges. Unless you get a top guy at a reduced price, look to grab your first QB after 8 or 9 have been taken.

Stockpile value wide receivers. Some will bust, but others will help you win your league. In this format, allocate no less than 8-9 roster spots for wide receivers. When in doubt choose younger players that have higher ceilings. To win the WCOFF, you must connect on some cheap talent.

Keep a pulse on TE throughout the draft and wait for value to emerge. Both Zach Miller, Oak and Dustin Keller, NYJ should be your fallback position if value doesn't show itself before that point.

Wait on defense, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second one in round 12. If defenses go earlier than normal, wait for 6-8 defenses to be picked before you take your first. Do not add a second defense unless you can implement Stuart's DTBC of Green Bay and Arizona. Work the waiver wire weeks ahead of great matchups for value.

Wait on kicker, but don't be afraid to grab the first or second on your list in round 14. If kickers go early, take the fifth to eighth kicker off the board.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 300 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Here is a sample team drafted from the 6th position (All picks taken at or before their ADP).

Rd 1 - Pick 6 - WR Andre Johnson, Hou/10 (ADP = 8)
Rd 2 - Pick 19 - WR Steve Smith, Car/4, (ADP = 23)
Rd 3 - Pick 30 - RB Kevin Smith, Det/7 (ADP = 32)
Rd 4 - Pick 43 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cle/9 (ADP = 43)
Rd 5 - Pick 54 - RB Ray Rice, Bal/7 (ADP = 62)
Rd 6 - Pick 67 - TE Greg Olsen, Chi/5 (ADP = 69)
Rd 7 - Pick 78 - WR Devin Hester, Chi/5 (ADP = 89)
Rd 8 - Pick 91 - RB Leon Washington, NYJ/9 (ADP = 91)
Rd 9 - Pick 102 - QB David Garrard, Jac/7 (ADP = 106)
Rd 10 - Pick 115 - RB Chester Taylor, Min/9 (ADP = 116)
Rd 11 - Pick 126 - RB Jerrious Norwood, Atl/4 (ADP = 128)
Rd 12 - Pick 139 - WR Michael Jenkins, Atl/4 (ADP = 149)
Rd 13 - Pick 150 - WR Nate Burleson, Sea/7 (ADP = 160)
Rd 14 - Pick 163 - RB Kevin Faulk, NE/8 (ADP = 167)
Rd 15 - Pick 174 - QB Shaun Hill, SF/6 (ADP = 190)
Rd 16 - Pick 187 - WR Joey Galloway, NE/8 (ADP = 198)
Rd 17 - Pick 198 - WR Devin Thomas, Was/8 (ADP = 215)
Rd 18 - Pick 211 - WR Robert Meachem, NO/5 (ADP = 212)
Rd 19 - Pick 222 - TE Randy McMichael, Stl/9 (ADP = 224)
Rd 20 - Pick 235 - Best Defense Available
Rd 21 - Pick 246 - TE Jermichael Finley, GB/5 (ADP = 247)
Rd 22 - Pick 259 - Best PK available

Note: I have crafted this team to be a bit soft at RB, but I own the backups to the two RBs that led the league in carries last year (Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner). This is the type of high risk manuevering that could vault a team like this way up the rankings should a key injury like that happen.