The Perfect Draft (10-team Non-PPR League)

Updated 8/26 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This is the second of a five-part series. The other versions will be 12-team, 14-team, Auction and WCOFF (PPR) formats.

I started penning this article in 2002 to put my predraft thoughts to paper. Like most things in life, I find I do my best when I plan to succeed. This article is my attempt at that. I work hard at doing projections every year. At Footballguys, we also put together the most comprehensive ADP lists (from 5+ sources). So the information about value is certainly readily available. The trick to having a perfect draft though is to anticipate those "pockets of value" and build your team so that you get the lion's share of these guys.

There is not one way to have a perfect draft. In fact, the biggest criticism I often get is that I am willing to wait on QB and/or TE in a lot of drafts. Many drafters show me teams where they grab a guy like Peyton Manning early and then knock the rest of the draft out of the park. That's definitely possible. And against weak competition, it is also the preferred gameplan.

This article assumes fairly educated drafters. You need to decide whether your league is full of sharks, guppies or a combination of both. Count the number of Footballguys subscriptions and compare that to the number of guys crossing off players from their magazine cheatsheet to get a feel for this if you really are unsure. I state this here, because against softer competition the shark move is to grab the quality QBs and TEs too. You should do this because it's nearly assured you will also get many great players to slide to you at RB and WR. Against great competition, reaching for a player at the wrong time can quickly dismantle your draft and leave you missing the key "pockets of value" that can help your chances at winning.

Before we can have the "Perfect Draft", let's define our measure of success. After the draft, your team should have these qualities:

Against multiple projection sets, your team always grades out as one of the best teams. And to make your life easy, here just run your roster through our new Rate My Team application.
You secured a great number of players that will outperform their draft position.
You have quality depth (in the right places) to allow for postdraft trades.
The majority of owners recognize that you have a team that should easily reach the playoffs.

These aren't absolutes, but I list them here so we know what we are trying to build.

Let's start with the two basic principles of Value Based Drafting (VBD). I will expound on them as we go through this.

All Players Have Value
Don't love anyone. Don't hate anyone. Get players that will significantly outperform their draft position and you will build a winning team.

Understand What the Average Guy Thinks
You may believe someone will be the 10th best WR, but if everybody else does not then you need to wait to maximize value.

If you don't follow these principles, you will not have a perfect draft. If you believe rookie WRs are always bad or drafting anyone over 30 is too big of an injury risk, then you will not have the perfect draft. Throw away the biases. Let value guide your draft. Let others succumb to prejudices and generalities. You are here to win your league. And you do that by getting value with every pick.

How do we define value? Value Based Drafting (VBD) has shown us that we can compare unlike positions for comparative value. The cornerstone of VBD starts with solid projections. And these projections can be manipulated to form Top 200+ lists. For this article, I will be using the Top 300 (non-PPR) list I created for the website. I have highlighted favorable differences in green to indicate players that may be bargains on draft day.

Let's have the perfect 10-team draft.

The goal is to get you the best possible team and to make sure you don't overpay for players that can still be had a few rounds later. What I look for are players that I project significantly better than where they are being drafted. The positional analysis tracks to my projections.

This article assumes a 10 team league using scoring that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Def and 1 PK. Fantasy points are calculated as follows:

Passing TDs = 4 points
Interceptions = -1 points
Rushing/receiving TDs = 6 points
Passing yardage = 0.05 pts per yard (1 pt per 20 yards)
Rushing/receiving yardage = 0.10 pts per yard (1 pt per 10 yards)

In a 12 team draft, there is steady pressure to grab the quality RBs before they are gone. That pressure has mostly disappeared in a 10-team draft. In an 8-team league, there is essentially no pressure on any of the positions. This point is important, because in these smaller drafts, it's much more critical to target high risk/high reward players. The price of failing is usually substantially reduced because of the smaller roster sizes. You can miss on a few players and not be dead in the water. With these thoughts in mind, here is the blueprint to have the Perfect Draft in a ten team (or smaller) league.

Instead of concentrating on things by position, I believe the correct approach is to grab the best player available until the Top 50 are off the board. With some luck and creating the right Top 50 list, you are hopeful to still be drafting from this list when you complete the 7th round (70 picks). If you are still using this list in the 9th round, grab a beer and call the engraver during the draft.

Because ADP is a crucial barometer on when players will get drafted, I believe it's important to merge the Footballguys Top 300 with ADP to create a single Top 50 draft list. Here is how I create this list.

For players that have a value lower than ADP, use the average of the two numbers.
For players that have a value higher than ADP, use the value number.

Example: Player A has a value of 13 and an ADP of 21. His "drafting" value would be 17. (13 + 21)/2. Conversely, if Player has a value of 21 and an ADP of 13, his "drafting" value would be 21.

Doing this for the Top 300 list yields these Top 50 players (ranked from 1st to 50). *** Note this is a generic list. You can get a tailored list by entering your scoring criteria into the VBD or Draft Dominator applications:

RB1 Adrian Peterson, Min/9
RB2 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac/7
RB3 Michael Turner, Atl/4
RB4 DeAngelo Williams, Car/4
WR1 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari/4
RB5 Ladainian Tomlinson, SD/5
RB6 Steven Jackson, StL/9
WR2 Randy Moss, NE/8
RB7 Chris Johnson, Ten/7
WR3 Andre Johnson, Hou/10
RB8 Frank Gore, SF/6
RB9 Matt Forte, Chi/5
QB1 Tom Brady, NE/8
RB10 Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10
WR4 Calvin Johnson, Det/7
RB11 Steve Slaton, Hou/10
RB12 Clinton Portis, Was/8
QB2 Drew Brees, NO/5
RB13 Brian Westbrook, Phi/4
WR5 Steve Smith, Car/4
RB14 Ronnie Brown, Mia/6
WR6 Roddy White, Atl/4
WR7 Greg Jennings, GB/5
RB15 Marion Barber, Dal/6
WR8 Reggie Wayne, Ind/6
RB16 Kevin Smith, Det/7
RB17 Ryan Grant, GB/5
QB3 Peyton Manning, Ind/6
RB18 Pierre Thomas, NO/5
WR9 Anquan Boldin, Ari/4
WR10 Dwayne Bowe, KC/8
QB4 Aaron Rodgers, GB/5
TE1 Jason Witten, Dal/6
RB19 Darren McFadden, Oak/9
WR11 Chad Ochocinco, Cin/8
QB5 Philip Rivers, SD/5
WR12 Wes Welker, NE/8
WR13 Marques Colston, NO/5
RB20 Thomas Jones, NYJ/9
WR14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea/7
TE2 Antonio Gates, SD/5
WR15 Braylon Edwards, Cle/9
RB21 Marshawn Lynch, Buf/9
RB22 Larry Johnson, KC/8
TE3 Tony Gonzalez, Atl/4
WR16 Anthony Gonzalez, Ind/6
QB6 Donovan McNabb, Phi/4
WR17 Vincent Jackson, SD/5
WR18 Terrell Owens, Buf/9
WR19 Santonio Holmes, Pit/8

The First 50 Players:

Essentially you are just looking to grab the best player available until this list is exhausted. But use some common sense while you do this. This list includes 22 RBs, so you need to make sure you secure at least 2 or 3 backs off this list (as that position will have dried up considerably).

I would pay little to no attention to bye weeks during this phase. You have plenty of time to adjust after these Top 50 players are gone.

I would limit myself to just 1 QB and 1 TE from this list unless the extra QB or TE is drafted in the 8th round or later (Trade value alone makes the selection worthwhile).

After the Top 50 - Assessment Phase

The transition from the Top 50 to rounding out your team based on need is a critical one. Your anlysis here can instantly turn a good draft into a great one. Here are the questions you should be asking yourself to determine your weaknesses:

How many backs did you secure. The average owner should have 2.2. Do you have 4 or more including one in the 1st round? Is this a position of strength for your team?

Did you draft a QB or TE (The average owner should have 0.6 QBs and 0.3 TEs) yet? If so consider yourself done at this position until very late in the draft. If you have not drafted these positions yet, do not panic. Good ones will be available late in your 10-team draft.

Assess your bye week situation. If three or more of your first five players are off on the same bye week, I will usually sacrifice that week to be strong in every other week. If that is not the case, then I look to patch the holes with complimentary players that could have big weeks during these rough spots. Teams lining up against Detroit, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City and St. Louis should all yield good results during these weeks.

As an example, Let's say you landed this team after 7 rounds:

5. RB DeAngelo Williams, Car/4
16. RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10
25. WR Steve Smith, Car/4
36. WR Dwayne Bowe, KC/8
45. RB Thomas Jones, NYJ/9
56. WR Anthony Gonzalez, Ind/6
65. WR Santanio Holmes, Pit/8

By landing 3 RBs and 4 WRs (including a top RB), you are well on your way to a perfect draft. Quick analysis yields these weaknesses at present: QB (none taken), Week 4 is off to a rough start as two of your first three selections share that bye week. Week 8 has two wide receivers off.

Unless significant value presents itself, my next few rounds plan would be:

Fill out roster need at QB
Fill out roster need at TE
Grab a player sliding at WR that is exceptional value

Note the departure from looking for value at all cost here. RB may represent value at your next pick, but this selected player may rarely see the field with the stars you have already drafted. It is generally better to fill out your key roster spots instead of amassing a lot of value that you may not be able to use. So use your head. Are you able to select a QB that represents at least fair value (ADP and value numbers are in line with the selection)? If not, then by all means select another quality RB or WR.

Moving to Fill Positional Needs

Quarterbacks

The plan is simple at the quarterback position this year. Unless you grab a top star at value from the Top 50 list above, wait until 8 or 9 quarterbacks are drafted before taking your first. In a 10 team league this strategy will plop you firmly into the sweet spot of quarterback value.

Here are the quality fantasy QBs that I expect should be available after you have finished drafting players from your top 50 list:

Jay Cutler, Chi/5 (Value = 71, ADP = 71) in the 8th or later - Jay Cutler hopes to step into the Bears offense and help to morph the attack from a conservative ground-and-pound approach to an aggressive bombs-away mentality. He definitely has the swagger and ability to throw the ball down the field, but he needs to have people catch the ball. With luck, he will find nice chemistry with TE Greg Olsen while receivers Devin Hester and Rashied Davis continue to improve their craft.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pit/8 (Value = 76, ADP = 89) in the 8th or later - Two years ago Big Ben was a Top 6 fantasy QB, but a new offensive philosophy coupled with a tougher schedule made for a barely Top 20 performance in 2008. The Steelers plan to protect Roethlisberger better this year and give him more time to make plays through the air.

David Garrard (Value = 86, ADP = 115) in the 10th or later - Since David Garrard took the reins in Jacksonville midway through the 2006 season, his top receivers have been Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Dennis Northcutt, and Ernest Wilford - not exactly an all-star cast. This season he'll have seven-time Pro Bowler Torry Holt in the mix. Holt had a down year in 2008, but he still outperformed each of Jacksonville's WRs. If Holt can bounce back and give Garrard a legitimate playmaker to throw to on the outside (and if the Jaguars' offensive line can offer him some protection), Garrard possibly could challenge for a spot among the Top 5 fantasy QBs.

I would then target these backups later in the draft

Kyle Orton, Den (Value = 109, ADP = 119) in the 12th or later - Kyle Orton comes to Denver from Chicago and suddenly finds himself surrounded by superior talent. The Broncos have a better offensive line, better wide receivers, and arguably a better ground game than the Bears which could mean that Orton is primed for a banner year. Add in the fact that he will now be coached by QB guru Josh McDaniels and it only enhances his potential production. Additionally the Denver defense looks to be among the worst in the league in 2009. Orton will be asked to air it out a lot in the second half of games as the team plays from behind. Last year, Cutler had a whopping 616 pass attempts and rode those attempts to a 5th place final QB ranking. If Orton is even close to this production, he will smash his ADP.

Jason Campbell, Was (Value = 117, ADP = 156) in the 14th round or later - After completing a career-best 62.3 percent of his passes and throwing the fewest interceptions per pass in the league, Campbell has something to build upon. If he can shake off the team's overtures to replace him and show a willingness to take more chances downfield, this year, Campbell could surprise and be a fringe Top 12 passer. His athleticism and mobility (258 yards rushing in 2008) add upside beyond what should be solid but not spectacular passing stats.

Joe Flacco, Bal (Value = 128, ADP = 143) in the 14th round or later - The theory goes, the biggest leap forward a quarterback will make is between his first and second seasons as a starter. Considering Joe Flacco took his team to within a game of the Super Bowl, a significant increase in productivity would be music to Baltimore's ears. Flacco will go into the season with three legitimate runners to help the ground game, all of his receivers back in town, and an additional tight end in L.J. Smith. What's more, in an interesting twist, the defensive losses for Baltimore could be Flacco's gain. If the Ravens play fewer close, smash-mouth style games, the potential could be there for the team to air it out a bit more. He has already proven that he throws a very good deep ball - why not use it a bit more?

Shaun Hill, SF (Value = 155, ADP = 184) in the 17th round or later - To illustrate Shaun Hill's fantasy potential, if his 2008 stats were pro-rated over 16 games, he would have been a Top 6 fantasy QB. Shaun Hill averaged 22.2 FP/G in the 8.5 games he played in 2008. That's only half a point behind Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb. Hill has been a very consistent performer the past two seasons -- he's scored over 12 points in each of his 12 games. Hill does not have a pretty arm and he's been bolstered by an easy strength of schedule. But whenever he starts against a weak defense, he's a good bet to score around 20 FPs.

JaMarcus Russell, Oak (Value = 167, ADP = 202) in the 18th round or later - JaMarcus Russell finished the 2008 season on a hot streak, throwing six TDs and two INTs in the final three games. Although his rookie year, pre-season holdout really slowed his initial development, Russell seemingly played better with each start in 2008. Some are quick to write off the big QB from LSU because of his documented weight issues, lack of consistency with his passing mechanics, and working for one the NFL's most confounding owners, Al Davis. When it's all said and done, Russell has top-flight athleticism and arm strength.

Running Backs

In most leagues, running backs are golden. Yes they can run and catch, but the real reason they are golden is that there simply are not enough of them to go around. But if you followed the Top 50 plan from above, you should have a nice stable of backs on your roster.

But two or three quality backs don't make a powerhouse fantasy roster...Having depth at RB does.

Here are other situation that I think represent value this year (outside of the Top 50 picks):

Here are the other RBs that I would target for value:

Ray Rice, Bal (Value = 60, ADP = 75) in the seventh round or later - Willis McGahee's knee gave him a lot of trouble last season in the early going. And for all of his production, Le'Ron McClain still averaged fewer than four yards per carry. Ray Rice, meanwhile, was drafted in the second round, produced when the team needed him to, and led the three backs in yards per carry. He has excellent skills and has earned himself a greater piece of the rushing pie in 2009.

Cedric Benson, Cin (Value = 62, ADP = 76) in the seventh round or later - With a big new offensive tackle to run behind and Chris Perry out of the way, Cedric Benson is finally in a position to redeem himself after several years of being considered a bust. As the full-time starter, Benson comes into the season ready to run wild. With Palmer back under center, defenses can't stack eight men in the box, so Benson has a chance to exploit the holes that the offensive line opens for him.

Ernest Graham, TB (Value = 67, ADP = 106) in the ninth round or later - Earnest Graham was slowed by an ankle ligament injury last year, but all signs point to him being fully healed. Graham is only one year removed from being the 11th ranked fantasy RB and could find himself as a major contributor in the Buccaneers running game, teaming with Derrick Ward to give the Bucs a solid one-two punch.

Tim Hightower, Ari (Value = 74, ADP = 103) in the ninth round or later - With rookie Beanie Wells seemingly made of glass, it looks as if Hightower will get first chance at carrying the rushing load for the Cardinals.

Leon Washington, NYJ (Value = 83, ADP = 118) in the tenth round or later - Leon Washington is arguably the Jets most explosive offensive weapon. While he's not going to be called upon to be the main ball carrier, he is talented enough to be worked into a true committee approach under the new coaching regime. Ideally, Washington will emerge as one of the team's leading receivers and will be given 5-10 carries a game as the offense looks to spread the field.

Fred Taylor, NE (Value = 87, ADP = 127) in the 11th round or later - Fred Taylor seemed to drink from the fountain of youth in 2006 and 2007, averaging over five yards a carry each year in a job-share situation with Maurice Jones-Drew. Taylor should take over as the primary back for New England this season. He won't be a workhorse, but he could still see 10-15 carries and maybe more if he gets it going in any given game.

Kevin Faulk, NE (Value = 156, ADP = 209) in the 17th round or later - In the 2008 season, Kevin Faulk played on more offensive plays than any other Patriots' running back. He is extremely active in the passing game and had an impressive 58 receptions last year. Imagine being a defense and having to stop Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway and Kevin Faulk. Despit being in a possible 4-way committee, Faulk has a clear role in the passing game and on third downs.

Wide Receivers

The biggest key to having a great wide receiver corps is following the Top 50 plan above and then swooping in and stealing the players that slide unnecessarily in a draft.

Eddie Royal, Den (Value = 47, ADP = 63) in the sixth round or later - Eddie Royal burst onto the scene in the Week 1 matchup against the Raiders when he made DeAngelo Hall look silly on every play. Even when Brandon Marshall came back from his suspension, Royal maintained his fantasy value for the season and finished as the No. 20 fantasy WR. This season the Broncos could look much different on the field, but if they are truly New England West then Eddie Royal = Wes Welker.

Devin Hester, Chi (Value = 54, ADP = 91) in the ninth round or later - He was open on a lot of deep routes at the end of last year that Kyle Orton struggled to connect with. Cutler has one of the prettiest deep balls in the game making Hester a threat to score often this year. He had improved noticeably as a WR by the end of last season.

Donnie Avery, StL (Value = 70, ADP = 97) in the ninth round or later - With Torry Holt departed for Jacksonville, the torch has been passed to Donnie Avery, who now becomes the Rams' top WR. Avery is a sure bet to lead the team in targets, and he has the YAC ability to thrive in a West Coast-style offense. With steady play from the Rams offensive line and quarterback, Avery has the potential for a Top 20 fantasy season.

Domenik Hixon, NYG (Value = 90, ADP = 116) in the 11th round or later - A non factor in his first two years in the league, Hixon was the surprise of Giants camp last year. Thought to be a long shot to make the 53-man roster, Hixon played so well that he started the season as the WR3. He eventually worked his way into a starting role. While his numbers weren't gaudy (43 receptions for 596 yards and 2 TDs), he was on pace for 70+ receptions after becoming a starter. With Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer gone, the Giants are counting on Hixon to pick up where he left off. You can't rule out a 1,000-yard campaign, but that will depend mainly on whether other young receivers like Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks can outplay Hixon.

Josh Morgan, SF (Value = 96, ADP = 137) in the 13th round or later - Michael Crabtree isn't signed and appears destined for a long holdout. His absence has paved the way for camp standout Josh Morgan who is turning heads daily. And even if Crabtree signs and plays well enough to crack the starting lineup, the loser will likely be veteran Isaac Bruce not Josh Morgan. This is a player you should land on everyone of your fantasy teams this year.

Chris Henry, Cin (Value = 104, ADP = 145) in the 14th round or later - The Cincinnati offense should have a solid turnaround this season. With the return of Carson Palmer, the passing lanes will open up for all of the WRs on the Bengals, including Chris Henry. Chad Ochocinco was recently called out by Palmer for missing OTA's, and in the same breath, Palmer praised Henry for a great offseason. Laveranues Coles is a quality guy, but he isn't going to steal as many targets like T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Those factors should give Henry plenty of chances to redeem himself after two years of subpar performance.

Michael Jenkins, Atl (Value = 118, ADP = 175) in the 15th round or later - Jenkins made big improvement in terms of yards per reception last year - if he can add another 20 or so receptions to his numbers from last year, he'd become a viable #3 fantasy WR. Matt Ryan will benefit from another season of NFL experience/reps this year. If Ryan takes his game to the next level, Jenkins would likely rise with the tide, too.

Earl Bennett, Chi (Value = 121, ADP = 169) in the 15th round or later - The Bears passing attack is going to improve this season. A decent bet to step up may be 2008 third-round draft choice Earl Bennett, who was Jay Cutler's go-to guy for a season at Vanderbilt. He will definitely earn some playing time this year, and he could finish with strong numbers if everything falls into place.

Nate Burleson, Sea (Value = 122, ADP = 167) in the 15th round or later - Nate Burleson was on his way to being a productive starter and punt returner in Seattle before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 1. Burleson has looked healthy in OTAs and is already turning heads in training camp. He should beat out the often-injured Deion Branch for the starting job opposite marquee free agent pickup T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Joey Galloway, NE (Value = 136, ADP = 188) in the 16th round or later - Some might think Galloway is washed up, but when the Patriots don't, it's best to assume the old vet has something left in the tank. Galloway's foot never was quite right last year, but now he is the #3 in what promises to be the most productive passing offense in the league.

Devin Thomas, Was (Value = 143, ADP = 234) in the 17th round or later - Thomas has already been named the starter opposite of Santana Moss this year. With his size (6'2", 215 pounds), Thomas could catch 50+ catches and a half dozen scores if he's able to hold on to the starting job all season long.

Robert Meachem, NO (Value = 160, ADP = 217) in the 18th round or later - Some people may have already written off former first-round pick Robert Meachem after a disappointing rookie season, but we say not so fast. Meachem's ADP is WR71 right now, and he's not even getting drafted in some leagues. Keep his name in the back of your head if Lance Moore or Marques Colston continue to struggle with injury. The Saints' passing game is one of the best in the league, and Meachem could start to live up to his draft status.

Mike Walker, Jac (Value = 164, ADP = 224) in the 18th round or later - Walker has the inside track to start for the Jaguars opposite Torry Holt, but he will have to fend off competition from three rookie draft choices. Walker, originally drafted in the third round by the Jaguars in 2007, has been unable to stay healthy so far. He missed the 2007 season with a knee injury (ACL) and missed seven games in 2008 with another knee injury (MCL). When healthy, Walker has an excellent combination of size and speed and has shown some play-making ability. He caught 6 passes for 107 yards in week five last season against the Steelers and may have been on his way to growing into the Jaguars' WR1 role before the knee injury set him back.

Michael Clayton, TB (Value = 168, ADP >261) in the 19th round or later - If you've been a fantasy player for a number of years then you're probably familiar with Michael Clayton's rookie season in 2004 that featured 80 catches for nearly 1200 yards. Unfortunately that has been the highlight of his career so far. Injuries, confidence issues and different QB tendencies have kept him at bay since his electric rookie season. The Bucs decided to re-sign Clayton to a five-year $24 million dollar contract. Apparently they like what he has to offer. With the departure of Joey Galloway, he will be the team's number two WR and should see an increase in production as a result. The first two options in the passing game will be Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow, but Clayton could have a nice complementary season with timely catches.

Some other WRs will undoubtedly slip in your drafts besides the above targeted bargain list. In recap grab quality receivers early and then wait for exceptional value to emerge at WR because it always does.

Tight Ends

This is a strange year for Tight Ends. Both Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow will be playing for new teams this season. Jason Witten looks like he should have an increased role with Terrell Owens leaving, but TO was a big reason the middle was open for Witten. These situations have created a logjam of sorts at the top spots with Jason Witten (ADP = 38), Antonio Gates (ADP = 45), Tony Gonzalez (ADP = 51), Dallas Clark (ADP = 57) all going before the end of the fifth round. With as deep as the tight ends are this year, I think it would be a huge mistake to target any of the top four TEs. All will be taken at a time when it's imperative to stock up key RB and WR talent.

But fear not. There are always bargains at the tight end position late in a draft. In fact once the top 7-8 names come off the board, there is minimal pressure on the TE position the rest of the draft. It's no surprise that since TEs catch a relatively small amount of passes, primarily on short and intermediate routes (again, excluding the top tier guys), there usually isn't a great deal of variance between the fourth-best TE and the 12th best, witness:

2008 - 4th (118 points), 12th (82 points) = 36 points difference (2.25 per game)
2007 - 4th (141 points), 12th (79 points) = 62 points difference (3.88 per game)
2006 - 4th (113 points), 12th (81 points) = 32 points difference (2.00 per game)
2005 - 4th (119 points), 12th (77 points) = 42 points difference (2.63 per game)
2004 - 4th (113 points), 12th (69 points) = 44 points difference (2.75 per game)
5 YR AVG -- 4th (121 points), 12th (78 points) = 43 points difference (2.69 per game)

So ultimately, once you get past the big TEs, you're really debating over approximately two points per week (which is why it is wise to just wait until the later rounds to select a TE).

The tight end that I will be targeting in most of my drafts this year is Zach Miller, Oak (Value = 88, ADP = 123) in the tenth round or later. After a Week 3 game against Buffalo where he finished with 0 catches the light finally came on for Miller and QB JaMarcus Russell. His numbers would have been much better if he had more than one TD grab - a number he should easily surpass in 2009. The Raiders added more weapons to the WR corps, but Miller should remain the No. 1 or No. 2 target in the passing game. With Darrius Heyward-Bey running deep routes it should open up coverage over the middle for Miller to exploit.

About the same time that Zach Miller (ninth round) will be selected, Dustin Keller, NYJ (Value = 107, ADP = 117) will be taken off the board. The Jets should have a lot of receiving targets available with the departure of Laveranues Coles and Chris Baker, and Dustin Keller could be a prime beneficiary. That's without factoring in any improvement from the second year tight end, who was already a fantasy factor as a rookie. Keller has excellent ball skills and is a receiver first and a blocker second.

Look to grab either Miller or Keller in the tenth round. John Carlson will likely get selected before these players. Use him as the trigger when to be positioned to pounce to get your guy.

Here are the other TEs that I believe will have exceptional value in the draft:

Vernon Davis, SF (Value = 119, ADP 168) in the 15th round or later - Vernon Davis has the size and speed to be a very good fantasy TE. The departure of Mike Martz should result in Davis being used in more passing situations. The new offensive scheme emulates Kansas City's, and if Davis can be half as good as Tony Gonzalez, then fantasy owners may get a pleasant surprise. Davis is adequate as both a receiver and blocker and should play the majority of snaps.

Tony Scheffler, Den (Value = 148, ADP = 174) in the 16th round or later - When head coach Josh McDaniels first arrived in Denver some wondered if he would use TE Tony Scheffler enough in his offense. It became clear early in camp that the young coach indeed did have a big role for the talented tight end. Orton and Scheffler have developed a great chemistry in their short time together, and fantasy owners could pick up Scheffler as a TE2 with TE1 upside.

Randy McMichael, StL (Value = 133, ADP > 250) in the 20th round or later - Up through the time when McMichael first injured his leg in week four last year, he had 21 out of the 21 targets directed to the Rams' TE position. In other words, when he is healthy, McMichael has a lock on the starting TE position and figures prominently in the offense. During his five seasons in Miami, McMichael averaged 56 receptions for 619 yards, so he can be a productive pass-catcher when he is healthy. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is installing a west coast offense in St. Louis similar to what the Chiefs had run for much of Tony Gonzalez's career. The TE will be used to stretch the field vertically in addition to getting his share of looks underneath. McMichael was a starting-quality fantasy tight end in each of his seasons with the Dolphins, and although he is an underdog to reach that status again, it is not out of the question.

Place Kickers

In leagues that go after kickers early, just wait. You can get an adequate PK three rounds after every other owner has their first.

In leagues that draft this position real late (most leagues), look towards the top of the kicker list in round 15. If your top kicker is available then draft him. Suffice it to say that in a lot of leagues now, people wait too long to take their kickers. As a rule of thumb, you can generally maximize kicker value by taking the fifth to eighth kicker off the board. In waiver wire friendly leagues (most), don't be afraid to draft just one kicker and add others as necessary during the season to cover the bye weeks and/or exploit matchups.

Defenses

Scoring systems generally come into play and define when defenses are taken. I suggest you wait until round 13 to assess what to do about this position. If Pittsburgh is still on the board, grab them. If they are gone though, I would wait until late in the draft and implement Chase Stuart's suggested combo of the Green Bay Packers (ADP = 171) and Arizona Cardinals (ADP = 215). Both can be selected very late in the draft.

If roster spots are hard to come by, I would target these value defenses late in the draft:

Jacksonville Jaguars (Value = 193, ADP = 229) in the 19th round or later
Houston Texans (Value = 219, ADP > 230) in the 20th round or later

Because owners rank defenses so differently, you can generally get good value just by waiting for the value to emerge.

Another winning strategy to deploy after the draft for defenses is simply to look two games ahead in the waiver process. Most teams will have one or two defenses meaning that half of the defenses are available as free agent pick ups each week. By looking two to three weeks ahead at who will be playing Detroit, Cleveland, Denver, or Oakland, you likely can find a cheap defense that should perform well against subpar offenses. Drop this defense after their "quality game" so that you can continue to pick up other defenses that will have good weeks. Because of this strategy, I advise you to draft just one quality defense and look to play matchups the rest of the way. Every year two or three defenses are predicted to be terrible but end up playing great.

Putting It All Together

Draft the top 50 players as long as you can. Usually this will get you solid RBs and WRs for 6 or 7 picks. Make sure you don't grab more than 1 TE or QB with these selections.

Look to grab Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, or David Garrard ain round eight, nine or ten

Look to grab Zach Miller or Dustin Keller in the tenth or eleventh round.

Add value at QB, RB, WR and TE in the middle rounds to protect bye weeks and give yourself a chance to trade off talent to bolster squad as the season progresses.

Slough defense unless Pittsburgh is still available in round 13. If you are unable to get a top 3 defense at the right price, look towards implementing the DTBC combo of Green Bay and Arizona.

Slough kicker unless a top one is available (Gostowski) when you get to round 15. Generally waiting to select the 5th to 8th kicker leads to getting a great player at a good draft spot.

Well that is it folks. Hope you all do well in your coming drafts. Remember, the key is not to just follow the Top 200 list but to see where it differs substantially from average drafts. This is how you get value with every pick. And value is how you build winning fantasy teams.

Here is a sample team drafted from the 5th position (All picks taken at or before their ADP).

Rd 1 - Pick 5 - RB DeAngelo Williams, Car/4 (ADP = 8)
Rd 2 - Pick 16 - RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10 (ADP = 18)
Rd 3 - Pick 25 - RB Ronnie Brown, Mia/6 (ADP = 27)
Rd 4 - Pick 36 - TE Jason Witten, Dal/6 (ADP = 38)
Rd 5 - Pick 45 - WR Braylon Edwards, Cle/9 (ADP = 53)
Rd 6 - Pick 56 - WR Anthony Gonzales, Ind/6 (ADP = 58)
Rd 7 - Pick 65 - WR Hines Ward, TB/8 (ADP = 68)
Rd 8 - Pick 76 - RB Cedric Benson, Cin/8 (ADP = 76)
Rd 9 - Pick 85 - WR Devin Hester, Chi/5 (ADP = 91)
Rd 10 - Pick 96 - QB David Garrard, Jac/7 (ADP = 115)
Rd 11 - Pick 105 - RB Earnest Graham, TB/8 (ADP = 106)
Rd 12 - Pick 116 - TE Zach Miller, Oak/9 (ADP = 123)
Rd 13 - Pick 125 - RB Fred Taylor, NE/8 (ADP = 127)
Rd 14 - Pick 136 - WR Josh Morgan, SF/6 (ADP = 137)
Rd 15 - Pick 145 - WR Chris Henry, Cin/8 (ADP = 145)
Rd 16 - Pick 156 - QB Jason Campbell, Was/8 (ADP = 156)
Rd 17 - Pick 165 - WR Nate Burleson, Sea/7 (ADP = 167)
Rd 18 - Pick 176 - Def Best Available
Rd 19 - Pick 185 - PK Best Available
Rd 20 - Pick 196 - QB JaMarcus Russell, Oak/9 (ADP = 202)