From the Gut Part 2 - Running Backs
Posted 9/7 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab.
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head.
Running Backs (Listed alphabetically by last name)
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, Ind - Addai has experience over Brown only in my opinion. Brown is the better runner so the second Addai gets dinged and Brown has to play more is the day this thing flips. The intangible here is Brown's ability to pick up the blitz packages from a QB that calls so many audibles at the line of scrimmage. If he can protect Manning, Brown will show he deserves to be the main guy. My guess though is this will RBBC all year with Addai being the guy to have the first 6-8 games and Brown the guy the last half of the year.
Baltimore RB Trio - I want to say to put a fork in McGahee, but I suspect he has a little more life left. And it's this fact that has soured me on all of the Baltimore backs. Rice is the best of the three, but his ADP now represents no value. McClain is still around to do some TD vulturing and that pesky McGahee just won't go away.
Cedric Benson, Cin - I think this guy defines SOFT. He is a lousy player who goes down when people breathe near him. Add in a woeful offensive line and this has the obvious ending all over it. The problem though is the backs behind Benson are even worse than he is. Just avoid this situation at all costs. It's fool's gold at best.
Ronnie Brown, Mia - We saw glimpses of Brown being all the way back from his ACL surgery last year. Ricky Williams is steady, but is on the downside of his career. I suspect the Dolphins let Brown go off this year. It always felt like the team was counting his touches and holding him back. My gut tells me we see the pre-injury Brown back and moving piles.
Reggie Bush, NO - This is one guy I don't have a great feel for. It's clear he is a great PPR back when he plays. I would expect more of the same in games where he is healthy. But can he stay healthy? I have seen no evidence he can in his short span in the league and my gut tells me we could be in for more of the same. The Saints are their best when Bush lines up as a WR so maybe we will see more of that. Pierre Thomas should be the primary ball carrier which limits Bush's upside.
Matt Forte, Chi - I really expected Forte to be a big dud (compared to his lofty ADP) this year. He is soft near the goal line and I fully expected Kevin Jones to cut significantly into his carries there. But that all changed with Kevin Jones season ending inury. The Bears again find themselves with Forte and little else at running back. I am still not completely sold on this player, but he again gets the opportunity virtually unopposed. And that should be enough for him to be an excellent all-purpose back again this season.
Kevin Faulk, NE - This New England team is going to throw a lot in my opinion. And the RB that will make that work the best is Kevin Faulk. He is among the league's best on third down and 2009 will be no different. In PPR leagues, Faulk is somebody you have to have on your bench. He should smash his ADP easily.
Frank Gore, SF - I love Gore in this 49ers' offense. The problem with Gore, Jacobs, Barber type players though is they always fight for that extra 1/2 yard. That leads to getting gang-tackled often which leads to durability issues. All of these backs (if healthy and play all 16 games) are great. The problem though is they all seem to get dinged. Gore seems to have the easiest competition of the three. I like his chances to do great this year.
Ryan Grant, GB - Something special is in the air in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers looks better and the team seems to have a swagger to them from what I have seen in the preseason. Ryan Grant started last year hobbled and clearly not 100% and that showed up in the stats all year. He now looks completely back and appears to be running with a lot more purpose. On this dynamic offense, he easily could record a top 10 season in 2009.
Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams, TB - I still think when all the dust settles and everyone gets a little dinged up, Graham will be the Tampa Bay RB worth having in 2009. Cadillac Williams has herniated disks. This is a degenerative condition. It does not get better. It can be manageable for people that stay in shape and take care of their backs. It's not a good situation for an NFL back constantly in collisions. I believe Williams will finish the season on IR. In my opinion, Derrick Ward was brought in to fill the Warrick Dunn role (change of pace, third down back) in this offense. His salary (about $4M a year) is not consistent with starter money. All of this controvery now could lead to a great situation for Graham by mid-season.
Steven Jackson, StL - They really should rename the Rams to Steven Jackson and a pile of dung. He is amongst the best at his position in my opinion, but with a bad offensive line, dinged up quarterback, awful defense forcing the team to abandon the run, inexperienced WRs... well you get the story. I don't doubt Steven Jackson will start off hot as he attempts to single-handedly carry the franchise. But this will likely end like it always ends...with Jackson hurt. That's the price of getting gang-tackled every time he touches the ball.
Brandon Jacobs, NYG - The New York Giants kept 7 WRs on their roster. One can reason that two ways. Either the team is looking to throw often or they have minimal confidence in the WRs they have. I am thinking it's the latter. With the defense they have, I think this team is going to do a lot of running. And although Ahmad Bradshaw (and even Ware to a lesser extent) will have a role, the TDs and bulk of the run plays will be going to Jacobs. If he can stay healthy all season ( a pretty big IF based on his style of play that seems to look for collisions), he could finish with ridiculous numbers.
Chris Johnson and LenDale White, Ten - Johnson is an extremely talented back that works great in space. I see the team using him often again. Overall though I see the Tennessee running game getting a ton less carries as they were holding leads in almost every game last year. I call this the Haynesworth edge. He is gone and this team will likely be below-average and playing from behind. This shouldn't hurt Johnson much because he catches the ball so well, but I fear LenDale's numbers could fall off a cliff.
Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles, KC - Larry lost weight in the offseason and you don't hear any of the rumblings about a bad attitude with the new regime in place. Although I think Jamaal Charles might be the better fit in this spread-them-out-wide type of offense, I don't think Charles has the frame to be a workhorse back. My guess is both of these backs do a lot better than expected. In games where Kansas City is not getting blown out, Johnson will likely be the workhorse. In games where they get behind though, I see Charles being on the field more.
Felix Jones, Dal - Jones is a home run threat which is why he is so intriguing, but his ADP is way too high. This Dallas team is going to struggle. Their defense is below average. Their division is way better and the loss of TO means people are loading up in the box to stop the run. I can't see people scared about Patrick Crayton getting open. I doubt I will get Jones in any leagues because I tend to stockpile guys that will play a lot more. I think he will get limited work and hit the homerun on some weeks. He is more valuable in best ball/survivor leagues obviously.
Julius Jones, Edgerrin James and Justin Forsett, Sea - Jones is awful and everyone knows it. They got James at the last minute for a reason. Jones benefits from an early schedule though which could allow him to keep his job longer than I think his talent warrants. Despite the addition of Edgerrin James, I still think the team's best runner is under-sized Justin Forsett. He has excellent vision and runs hard between the tackles. If you can spare the roster room, I suggest taking a shot with this kid. I saw him carve up USC's defenses while he was at Cal and despite his size, I know that he belongs at this level. He just needs the opportunity.
Thomas Jones, NYJ - He finished as the 5th best RB last year on the same team that probably threw the ball too much with Favre behind center. The Jets have a quality offensive line that excels at run blocking. Jones is now 31, but he looked quite good at 30. If he can hold off Leon Washington all year (that might be too big an IF), he could be the steal of the draft. In the 4th/5th round, he represents a good to great bet to finish above his ADP. Handcuffing him with Leon Washington locks you into this running game. I am not sold yet that rookie Shonn Greene is ready to make a big impact this season.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac - This guy is going to be a monster in 2009. And my gut tells me even moreso than we are projecting. His offensive line was in shambles last year and he still was good even in a timeshare. He's going to get more looks plus better situations to run in. He's impossible to tackle and great on third downs and in short-yardage. Jacksonville has improved their offensive line and has an easier schedule. What's not to like here? In PPR, I think he is the clear favorite to be the best RB at the end of the year.
Jamal Lewis and James Davis, Cle - I think it's becoming very evident that the coaches would like James Davis to take over the starting gig. The team's signing today of Cedric Peerman is a little more of that noise (away from Jamal Lewis) in my opinion. But I am not yet sold that James Davis is a complete player today. Yes he has had flashes of potential against soft competition in the preseason, but I am not convinced any of the Cleveland backs will excel behind their crummy offensive line. At the end of the day, Jamal's ability to pick up blitz pickups will likely have him holding off James Davis longer than we suspect. I personally will pass on both of these players in my upcoming drafts.
Marshawn Lynch, Buf - The Bills offensive line is AWFUL. Really bad. Like worse than a stellar college team bad. It will kill value of just about everybody on that team this year. Lynch is talented, but he will miss three games to start the year. Fred Jackson is also pretty good, so Marshawn could see himself phased back in to. And then behind a bad line? His ADP is way too high for all of these situations. Best to pass on him.
Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, Oak - I think both of these backs look very good. My gut tells me McFadden wows people early and is a huge part of the passing offense. Bush is talented enough to start on some rosters and could also have a significant workload on this team. Because both backs would likely get a huge upgrade should the other get hurt, I recommend trying to roster both. Some will argue that Justin Fargas is still in the mix, but I personally am not feeling it. In my opinion, Fargas is there for depth only.
Knowshon Moreno, Den - This is a situation I will admit I don't have pegged too well yet. I love his talent, but the whole Denver offense is one giant moving piece. New QB, new RB if Moreno starts, Marshall pouting, etc. McDaniels seems to be on the verge of losing the team and fans before the season even starts. I suspect Moreno will be eased into things. But he just has Buckhalter, Peyton Hillis and LaMont Jordan to beat out. I suspect if he is even decent at reading the blitz pickups, he will be starting by week 4 or so. This spread offense will be great for his skillset so he could be a second half stud. ADP seems a bit high for my taste right now. Too many unknowns.
Jerrious Norwood, Atl - This is the same situation as Felix Jones. Both won't ever be full-time backs but are great in space. They have their roles and will do them well, but too few carries to get me excited.
Willie Parker, Pit - Damn. I am so bummed about Tomlin's last second quote that Parker is the main guy. I have felt this was going to be the case all off-season and was able to roster him in most drafts up to this point. He doesn't catch a lot of passes (limiting his value in PPR leagues), but Parker is a gamer. Bring in better competition and he ups his game. I suspect he holds Mendenhall at bay all year long. Mendenhall will vulture some TDs and Mewelde Moore will come in on third downs, but Parker will be on the field a lot in 2009. The big lesson here is when a team wins the Super Bowl, they don't usually juggle the roster up a lot. Mendenhall has yet to really impress the coaches from what I can gather.
Adrian Peterson, Min - You don't need my opinion. He is the real deal. I like MJD better in PPR leagues, but I see the talent with Peterson just like everyone else does. Really nothing to dislike about his situation this year.
Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts, Was - Portis is sliding way to far in drafts in my opinion. He is in a good situation with only Betts a threat to steal carries. And Betts ADP is criminally low because he has demonstrated time and time again that he can carry the load if called upon. Grab both of these backs at their discounted ADP and sleep easy at nights. This (and McFadden/Bush) are the two handcuffs worth owning this year.
Steve Slaton, Hou - Bob Henry told me this guy would be a stud heading into last year. I thought he was under-sized but admitted that there was not much in front of him to get playing time (Ahman Green....lol) so I rolled the dice on him late in a lot of leagues I was in. I will admit, he impressed the hell out of me. Yes he is a bit undersized against the typical back. But the guy runs hard and with purpose. The thing I like about the smaller guys is they usually have good balance and Slaton has that as well. I don't see who would push him for carries (Chris Brown will vulture some TDs, but I don't see a big role for him) so this really is an injury only concern. I am not very good at predicting injuries so I think he will be fine. His ADP is quite high though and I usually find myself getting the elite WRs in PPR leagues around that spot.
Kevin Smith, Det - I was not too high on this kid coming out of college, but he turned his game up a notch in the second half of last season. He could become a very good player in this league, but I suspect Detroit's abandoning the run often trying to catch up may limit his upside. I also don't see Detroit scoring many rushing TDs. For about the same price, I would much rather have Ryan Grant.
Jonathan Stewart, Car - Hmmmm. This one is rough because DeAngelo was a man among boys at the end of last year. Stewart looked good too running behind that massive offensive lne. I don't think the team will bench Williams anytime soon though. So essentially this pick is betting Willliams goes down with injury. Since Stewart is the one limping now, I am not willing to take that bet. If Williams was to go down and Stewart got the carries though, he would be a top 5-10 back every week in the rankings. That's the dilemma with this guy and playing on a team with an elite run blocking offensive line. He's good enough to succeed. He just needs the opportunity.
Chester Taylor, Min - In all of the Peterson worship, people forget how good Chester Taylor is. He is getting drafted around his floor he would achieve if Peterson plays all 16 games. But what would happen if Peterson got nicked or worse missed significant time? Taylor's value would vault up the boards. At or near his ADP, he represents all value (especially in PPR leagues where he has a role even with a healthy Peterson).
Fred Taylor, NE - I am not shocked in the slightest to see him atop the depth chart in New England. His "Fragile Fred" days are long behind him and I suspect he will hold it together for at least this year with the impressive New England offense. Fred goes so late in drafts that's it actually comical to me.
Pierre Thomas, NO - I see a stud in the making in a great offense. His ADP shot way up in leagues that drafted early, but his injured status now has him dropping back to a reasonable level. My gut tells me he is ready to carry the load on this team though. And with Reggie Bush's inability to stay healthy, this RBBC could lean heavily towards Thomas' favor before long.
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD - Despite seeing him lose speed, I still think LT somehow holds it altogether for another strong season. Hell, he limped his way to the 7th best RB while looking awful most of the year. The Chargers play the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos twice and that alone should give Tomlinson solid stats. There is no discounting though how good Sproles looked last year playing behind the same offensive line. But I just don't see Norv Turner benching LT.
Michael Turner, Atl - He is a stud, but he has no where to go but down. He doesn't catch many passes (and isn't likely to in 2009 either with Norwood on the roster). My gut tells me that Turner will do everything asked of him. I just expect the team to use new toy Tony Gonzalez quite a bit. And because Turner catches so few passes, his production will need to come from a ton of TDs. And although that scenario is entirely possible, I am just likely to avoid it in the PPR drafts I have.
Leon Washington, NYJ - I am a HUGE fan of his game. He can do so many things in open spaces. I think with a rookie quarterback, the team has to get him more involved. In PPR leagues, Washington could smash his ADP number. Although Thomas Jones is clearly ahead of Washington on the depth chart, this could be a situation where Washington just keeps getting more and more touches every week. And Thomas Jones is not a young buck. Should he get nicked, Washington's value would skyrocket.
Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, Ari - There is no doubting that Beanie Wells should be a LOT better player than Tim Hightower. But my gut tells me this kid is lazy and made of glass. I can't pinpoint any one thing, but I had the same view his last year in college. He just seems unmotivated despite his given talent. Yes I see the flashes of explosiveness. And if he played like that on every down, he would be a stud in the NFL. My gut tells me that he will tempt us with a good game every once in awhile, but he is not a player you really should be excited to have rostered (unless you can trade him after a big week). Hightower is sub-par and may get carries out of default, but his game does not impress me. I suspect this year will be more of the pass-most-of-the-time philosophy that worked for the Cardinals in 2008.
Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy, Phi - When Westbrook is on the field, he is so fun to watch. He is a perfect fit into Philadelphia's overall offensive scheme. The knock though is Westbrook's body is giving out on him. My gut tells me one day fairly soon, it's just over for Westbrook. Is it this year, next, or the year after that is anyone's guess. What I have seen from LeSean McCoy though is it might not matter soon. He looks like the real deal and should provide a spark even with limited carries when Westbrook is ready to go. Although I am tempted by Westbrook's high PPG numbers the last years, it kind of feels like this could be fool's gold this year. I suspect he misses his usual two games and yields a lot more carries than most of us are projecting to the talented rookie.
DeAngelo Williams, Car - The thing that most stands out to me is how dominant the Carolina offensive line is. And this is taking nothing away from Williams at all. But at times it's absolute mastery by the Carolina offensive line. I think Carolina's schedule is really rough and when Stewart was also healthy, I was a bit down on both of these backs. With Stewart dinged now, I have come around to thinking Williams is going to have a very good year. Besides the line play, Williams looks way more decisive than earlier in his career. Maybe, it's because he KNOWS his offensive lineman are going to create the hole, but you just don't see any of the normal dancing. He makes his strong cut and blasts through the opening. We all might regret not grabbing this guy when we had our chance this year.