From the Gut part 1 - Quarterbacks
Posted 8/29 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
As I comb through mounds and mounds of data to help me produce projections for the website, I still think back to some of my best fantasy rosters when I went in with a short list of guys I wanted to nab.
Sometimes you just have to follow your gut.
Below is a list of players, strategies and just random thoughts that are buzzing in my head.
Quarterbacks (Listed alphabetically by last name)
Tom Brady - Let's say you are the defensive coordinator and playing against the Patriots. It's 3rd and 1 around midfield (an obvious running situation for most teams in the NFL). But the Patriots line up Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Chris Baker and Kevin Faulk. Would you really stack the line of scrimmage to try and stop the run? To say this team is stacked to excel via the pass would be a huge under-statement. Galloway has worked as a WR1 his whole career and now is a WR3 in this offense? Add in the fact the Patriots were undefeated before losing the Super Bowl, lost Brady in the 1st game last year, had 11 wins and were not in the playoffs and you have a team with a major chip on their shoulder. My gut tells me this team is going to look to smash teams into submission. Forget the projections, regression to the mean statistics, etc and follow your gut here. I think Brady has a legitimate shot at 45 TDs this season.
Drew Brees - When you consider how well he played with a lot of his team hurting last season, you realize how great this quarterback is in this system. I like Brady's supporting players better, but I would not bet against Brees. I don't advocate taking a quarterback early, but my gut tells me if Brees stays upright in 2009, he will deliever as promised.
Matt Casell - I am a big USC homer and even I don't understand paying this guy all this money before playing a snap with your team. Something tells me we are experience Scott Mitchell all over again. The fact that the head coach is playing games and having Dwayne Bowe run with the second unit confirms my suspicions that this could be a giant trainwreck in the making. The Chiefs' recent signings of veteran wide receiver castoffs also sends me a vote of no-confidence here. Too many other players I like around this point in a draft to waste a selection on this guy.
Kerry Collins - OK, Vince Young is awful and he essentially quit on his team...but come on. Does anybody think Kerry Collins will get it done in Tennessee this year? Put me in the camp that expects him to be replaced for one last look at Vince Young sometime this season.
Jay Cutler - I have been a big fan of his throwing style since he came into the league. He enters a worse situation to pile up stats (The Bears play better defense by a wide margin so the scores will likely be closer), but it's hard not getting excited what a Cutler to Devin Hester connection could mean. Hester got open behind the defense a lot in 2008. Had Cutler been the quarterback then, I would bet these would have been mostly TDs. Add in a great pass-catching RB, two pass-catching tight ends and an old teammate from Vanderbuilt in Earl Bennett and it's hard not to be excited about Cutler's prospects. He is probably getting drafted around the right level, but my gut says this team could really be clicking strong by the end of the season. You could do worse than having him on your roster this year.
Trent Edwards - Edwards is playing behind a horrible offensive line. I think he has talent, but no QB can play well behind that line. If I was predicting an injury this year at QB, he would be on the list. And now his star WR (Owens) is hobbled with a bad toe....let's just call this for what it's going to be...massive failure. I would rather roll the dice late with someone like Leinart (who would be a good player should a 38 year old Warner go down) than have someone like Edwards who will undoubtedly suck most every week. In football, you are only as good as your offensive line. And in case you don't believe me, just ask Carson Palmer.
Brett Favre - Despite all the ridiculous drama involving this guy every season, my gut tells me that this team will be a lot better with Favre as their quarterback. I am guessing that someone will reach for Favre in most leagues making him somebody that isn't likely on any of my teams. I don't expect gaudy stats from Favre (he rarely scrambles anymore so he gets no rushing yards), but he will keep Minnesota in virtually every game. That in turn will make all of the Minnesota weapons more valuable.
David Garrard - If I have not convinced you to draft this guy yet, I probably won't be able to in this column either. There is no doubting it - I have man-love for Garrard's game. He's calm and cool even when everything is imploding around him. Last year, his offensive line (and I use that term loosely) was decimated with injuries. A simple pass play meant Garrard needed to juke a defender, slide out of the pocket, throw on the run, use his legs to escape the rush, etc. I remember watching many times just thinking....how the hell is he pulling off any passes at all playing behind this thing. It really was that bad. And his receivers were awful with numerous drops. This year he has his original offensive line starters healthy, depth in the form of Tra Thomas (from Philadelphia) and their first two picks were offensive tackles. Even though he won't put up many 300 yard passing games, he does enough with his feet to roll up impressive stats per game played. I sense something big is in the making here and am looking to roster this guy in every league.
Matt Hasselbeck - What do you get when you have a 34 year old quarterback with back problems playing without his all-Pro tackle. If you answered...HIT OFTEN...you would be correct. Others can have this guy. My gut tells me we will see Seneca Wallace again at some point this year.
Matt Leinart - We all see this coming right? Warner is old and brittle. Before last season, you had to go back to year 2001 to find a season where Warner played all the games. My gut tells me we will see Leinart on the field this year and although I am not a huge fan of his game, I think Ryan Leaf might be able to succeed with the weapons Arizona has. Instead of rostering a likely bad player, why not swing for the fences with somebody like Leinart. Once Warner is hurt, the asking price will obviously be way too steep.
Eli Manning - I personally don't think Eli is all that good of a quarterback. He is OK when a guy like Plaxico Burress outjumps people and bails him out. But without veterans Burress and Toomer, I have serious concerns that this offense can move the ball through the air. Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith scare no one. Hakeem Nicks might be the future, but he likely won't be a big contributor this year. This is a run first, run second and then try and run a third time for a first down offense. My gut tells me that there won't be enough pass attempts nor the weapons in this offense to make Eli worth anything close to his ADP this year.
Peyton Manning - This offensive line is considerably worse in 2009 than it has been in years. Manning is still awesome, but with new toy Donald Brown and a worse offensive line this is a player I am mostly avoiding this season.
Donovan McNabb - I have a bad feeling here. Maybe it's the fact that in his ten seasons as a Pro, McNabb has started all 16 games just 4 times. Maybe it's his age. Maybe it's the fans booing McNabb when he struggles. But I think my fear is bigger than all those things. Michael Vick is a weapon. And although McNabb can smile while watching Vick do his thing in a Wildcat formation, I wonder how McNabb might take the criticism if the fans all start voicing that they want Vick in there. Again, I have ZERO facts to base this on. But the vibe I am getting is that this could turn into way more of a controversy by mid-season especially if McNabb was to play poorly or get dinged and Vick comes to the rescue.
Kyle Orton - Despite him looking bad in the preseason, I am in the camp that I think Orton has a good to great season. I don't view Chris Simms as any real threat to his job and expect Orton to start all 16 games should he stay healthy. He managed 3,000 yards and 18 TDs playing behind a worse offensive line and with worse weapons last year in Chicago. Head Coach Josh McDaniels was able to make Matt Cassell look like an All-Pro last year. My gut says he will do the same for Orton here. A lot of this will obviously depend on Marshall getting back with the team and contributing. But at Orton's ADP, this is a very low risk gamble in my opinion.
Carson Palmer - I love me some Hard Knocks on HBO. These shows are great because we get to see the intricacies that team's work on. I suspected this offensive line play was going to really bad, but watching this show cemented those thoughts for me. And what a shocker, the organization refuses to pay the going rate on the rookie offensive lineman they drafted. So depite Ochocinco looking like he can get open at will and Chris Henry looking like he has rededicated himself, I am just not sold that Palmer will have any time to throw. And now he already has a high ankle sprain going into the season. Palmer should have been a value pick this year, but with no help up front, he is likely another QB that won't make it through the year.
Aaron Rodgers - I don't think 2008 was a fluke at all. He has a great group of targets and slides around the pocket nicely buying time to hit these players in stride. The Packers defense has some issues (as they adopt to a new system) which could put Rodgers in quite a few shootouts. If he can stay healthy (and no real reason to think he won't), I see more of the same in 2009. Among the safest selections at QB this year.
Tony Romo - Well he did dump the Chicken in the Sea girl, so that's a positive. Love or hate Terrell Owens, he made the Cowboys a lot better. He kept defenses honest which opened up the middle for Witten to operate. It also allowed someone like Patrick Crayton to be efficient. Patrick Crayton never burns people. He is a plodder that runs clean routes. This "threat" of a pass attack last season gave the RBs the room to maneuver with the final result being a high-powered offense. TO is gone and now the often-injured Roy Williams is....yes you guessed it....injured. It looked like Roy Williams might miss a lot of time, but now some people are speculating that he could play by the season opener. I look at these receivers (Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, and Patrick Hurd) and I am not impressed. Defenses are likely going to look to stop the RBs on early downs and then lock on Witten in obvious passing situations to make these other guys move the chains. I think Romo has a lot of talent, but where he is being drafted he represents all downside. In my opinion, he just doesn't have the necessary supporting cast to be among the elite at this position.
Matt Ryan - I remember last year's column where I stated that I could see it in this guy's eyes and body language that he had the "it" factor. Nothing has changed except I now believe he truly will be one of the elite QBs soon. He throws a great pass. He is calm in the pocket. His head is in the game. His ADP is quite steep this year meaning he won't likely land on many of my teams, but that might be a mistake for me. He's getting better with every game played and was already quite good last year. I think the team's balanced approach limits his upside a bit, but people can do much worse than Matt Ryan as their starter this year.
Mark Sanchez - I am a USC homer so maybe I have on rose-colored glasses, but I love the attitude of Mark Sanchez. He breathes football. He has wanted to be a professional QB in the NFL his whole life. He comes to work early, leaves late and studies hard. He lifts with the linebackers and takes pride in being a football player. Everywhere Sanchez has played his teammates love him. He isn't going to sell his team short. You know he will go to bed by curfew and will do everything he can to will his team to a win on Sunday. I knew when Clemens hadn't won this job by the second week of preseason, thet Sanchez would get this job. His work ethic and desire are contagious. But like all rookie QBs, he is going wake up to the speed of the NFL game. He got a taste of that against Baltimore in the preseason. I expect Sanchez to struggle as a rookie (don't all rooie QBs struggle?), but by the end of this season he will have won over the New York fans. Why? Because people with this much passion succeed in life. His desire, attitude and work ethic remind me of a young Tom Brady.
Matt Schaub - I love how he plays the game. It's probably best described as fearless. I used to laugh when I saw David Carr always running scared. I am not sure I have ever seen Matt Schaub flinch. Fearless. As in I son't even see the 300 lb defensive lineman coming at me, because I am locked in to what I have to do type of quarterback. The good news is when Matt isn't hurt, he is among the best in the game. He has arguably the best wide receiver in Andre Johnson and Matt throws such a pretty pass it's like these guys are just playing catch while the defense watches in amazement. The downside to Schaub though is that he gets HIT. It's the problem with not ever being afraid. Teams come at him and Matt doesn't throw it away much. He stands in and delivers before getting slammed to the turf. As expected that usually costs Matt a few games. I am not foolish enough to think anything will ever change here. He is what he is...a starter every week he trots on the field healthy. I like handcuffing him with David Garrard this year as their schedules align nicely and Garrard is a pretty safe bet to stay healthy all year. I expect Matt to be be a top 5 quarterback in points per game and miss 2-3 contests a year because of how he plays the game.
Matthew Stafford - Yes he throws a beautiful pass. His mechanics are exactly what you look for when you draft a quarterback. But as expected, he doesn't look ready yet to be an NFL quarterback. He looks lost mostly and I suspect we will see Daunte Culpepper at least for the early part of this year. Stafford could represent some value I suppose, but this is a situation I am passing on this season.
Kurt Warner - At age 38 and coming off hip surgery, I don't have a good feeling here. Outside of last year, you have to go back to 2001 to find a year where he played all 16 games. I am going to throw out the outlier (2008) and say he gets injured this year. He probably will be a top 5 player for every game he starts, but I won't be drafting him in any leagues. Now he is limping in practice. This isn't Hollywood. This will not have a happy ending.