The Perfect Auction
Posted 8/30 by David Dodds, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
This is the last of a five-part series. The other versions are 10-team, 12-team, 14-team and WCOFF/PPR formats.
More and more leagues are abandoning the round-by-round draft in favor of auction style play. This type of play allows everyone in the league to have a shot at every single player in the draft. If you want Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady and Randy Moss and you are successful at outbidding everyone for these players, then you get them on your roster. You will probably not get much else, but you get the idea. This article isn't going to debate the merits of auction leagues, but simply attempt to explain the art of succeeding in one.
The following assumptions will be used in the analysis that follows:
- 12 team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF/ST and 1 K
- Scoring is performance based
- $200 salary cap per team, $2,400 dollars available league wide
- Bids are whole numbers only
- Draft will last 20 rounds for a total of 240 players selected
- Teams are allowed to pick up free agents during the season (with a different cap or waiver system)
Some people seem to think the Principles of Value-Based Drafting (VBD) don't apply to an auction draft...that you can just show up with a cheat sheet and write down the values as they get determined, then pay a little more for a better position player and a little less for a worse one. I am not going to deny that you could do that, but that won't lead you to maximizing value in an auction draft.
To maximize value in an auction draft you need to accomplish these things:
- Predict what players will cost
- Value what players are worth
- Get value with the majority of selected players
1. Predicting What Players Cost
I used MyFantasyLeague Average Auction Values to determine prices. I then normalized this data to reflect approximately $2400 spent on the top 240 players.
2. Value What Players are Worth
Using the VBD App, I calculated worth and projected fantasy points for all of the players I expected to get purchased.
3. Getting Value with Most Selections
This is pretty easy to do. Simply don't pay more than a player is worth. I say most selections here, because sometimes it does make sense to target a certain player that will make your team very dominant. And if you get value up to that selection, overpaying slightly could likely make the most sense.
I have provided a table that attempts to explain my thought processes that are in play during an auction. I have ranked the players according to my worth by position. I have provided the "normalized" pricing as a guide on what this player will typically go for. I have provided what I view as this player's value and a 75% value number (for the top 75 players) that I generally make sure the player sells for unless he ends up on my team. I have provided fantasy points so you don't lose sight of what we are really talking about. I have identified players in green that are the most likely to be some of the best bargains in the auction. I have highlighted players in blue that I have used as baselines. They are the best players by position that can be bought for $2 (baselines set at $1 for PK and Def positions). I then calculate how much it costs you to increase VBD to get a better player (the lower the cost the better).
| Pos | Player | Team | Avg Cost | VBD Worth | 75% Worth | FP Scored | Cost per Bonus FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Tom Brady | NE/8 | $33 | $48 | $36 | 339 | $0.32 |
| QB2 | Drew Brees | NO/5 | $35 | $32 | $24 | 318 | $0.43 |
| QB3 | Peyton Manning | Ind/6 | $31 | $24 | $18 | 304 | $0.46 |
| QB4 | Aaron Rodgers | GB/5 | $25 | $23 | $17 | 301 | $0.39 |
| QB5 | Philip Rivers | SD/5 | $23 | $18 | $14 | 284 | $0.50 |
| QB6 | Donovan McNabb | Phi/4 | $18 | $18 | $14 | 282 | $0.39 |
| QB7 | Tony Romo | Dal/6 | $19 | $16 | $12 | 280 | $0.44 |
| QB8 | Jay Cutler | Chi/5 | $14 | $13 | $10 | 274 | $0.36 |
| QB9 | Kurt Warner | Ari/4 | $17 | $11 | $8 | 269 | $0.53 |
| QB10 | Ben Roethlisberger | Pit/8 | $8 | $10 | $8 | 267 | $0.23 |
| QB11 | Matt Schaub | Hou/10 | $13 | $10 | $8 | 267 | $0.42 |
| QB12 | David Garrard | Jac/7 | $6 | $6 | -- | 262 | $0.19 |
| QB13 | Matt Ryan | Atl/4 | $14 | $6 | -- | 262 | $0.59 |
| QB14 | Matt Cassel | KC/8 | $8 | $6 | -- | 260 | $0.32 |
| QB15 | Carson Palmer | Cin/8 | $11 | $3 | -- | 254 | $0.69 |
| QB16 | Trent Edwards | Buf/9 | $4 | $2 | -- | 244 | $0.60 |
| QB17 | Matt Hasselbeck | Sea/7 | $6 | $2 | -- | 244 | $1.55 |
| QB18 | Jason Campbell | Was/8 | $2 | $2 | -- | 241 | -- |
| QB19 | Kyle Orton | Den/7 | $3 | $2 | -- | 241 | -- |
| QB20 | Eli Manning | NYG/10 | $6 | $1 | -- | 240 | -- |
| QB21 | Joe Flacco | Bal/7 | $3 | $1 | -- | 229 | -- |
| QB22 | Brett Favre | Min/9 | $4 | $1 | -- | 224 | -- |
| QB23 | Jake Delhomme | Car/4 | $2 | $1 | -- | 220 | -- |
| QB24 | Shaun Hill | SF/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 217 | -- |
| QB25 | Chad Pennington | Mia/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 215 | -- |
| QB26 | Mark Sanchez | NYJ/9 | $3 | $1 | -- | 201 | -- |
| QB27 | JaMarcus Russell | Oak/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 190 | -- |
| QB28 | Kerry Collins | Ten/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 183 | -- |
| QB29 | Brady Quinn | Cle/9 | $3 | $1 | -- | 174 | -- |
| QB30 | Marc Bulger | StL/9 | $2 | $1 | -- | 172 | -- |
| QB31 | Daunte Culpepper | Det/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 120 | -- |
| QB32 | Matthew Stafford | Det/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 109 | -- |
| QB33 | Michael Vick | Phi/4 | $1 | $1 | -- | 45 | -- |
| QB34 | Matt Leinart | Ari/4 | $1 | $1 | -- | 32 | -- |
| QB35 | Sage Rosenfels | Min/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 14 | -- |
| RB1 | Adrian Peterson | Min/9 | $54 | $73 | $55 | 252 | $0.38 |
| RB2 | Maurice Jones-Drew | Jac/7 | $51 | $69 | $52 | 231 | $0.42 |
| RB3 | Michael Turner | Atl/4 | $45 | $66 | $50 | 223 | $0.40 |
| RB4 | DeAngelo Williams | Car/4 | $39 | $63 | $47 | 220 | $0.36 |
| RB5 | LaDainian Tomlinson | SD/5 | $40 | $58 | $44 | 216 | $0.38 |
| RB6 | Steven Jackson | StL/9 | $44 | $56 | $42 | 216 | $0.42 |
| RB7 | Chris Johnson | Ten/7 | $41 | $50 | $38 | 208 | $0.42 |
| RB8 | Frank Gore | SF/6 | $40 | $46 | $35 | 205 | $0.42 |
| RB9 | Matt Forte | Chi/5 | $48 | $43 | $32 | 202 | $0.54 |
| RB10 | Brandon Jacobs | NYG/10 | $30 | $41 | $31 | 200 | $0.33 |
| RB11 | Steve Slaton | Hou/10 | $40 | $38 | $29 | 194 | $0.49 |
| RB12 | Clinton Portis | Was/8 | $31 | $37 | $28 | 192 | $0.38 |
| RB13 | Brian Westbrook | Phi/4 | $34 | $31 | $23 | 185 | $0.46 |
| RB14 | Ronnie Brown | Mia/6 | $26 | $30 | $23 | 184 | $0.35 |
| RB15 | Marion Barber | Dal/6 | $29 | $29 | $22 | 183 | $0.40 |
| RB16 | Kevin Smith | Det/7 | $24 | $28 | $21 | 180 | $0.34 |
| RB17 | Ryan Grant | GB/5 | $22 | $28 | $21 | 180 | $0.31 |
| RB18 | Darren McFadden | Oak/9 | $23 | $24 | $18 | 170 | $0.39 |
| RB19 | Thomas Jones | NYJ/9 | $14 | $21 | $16 | 157 | $0.29 |
| RB20 | Larry Johnson | KC/8 | $17 | $20 | $15 | 155 | $0.38 |
| RB21 | Marshawn Lynch | Buf/9 | $19 | $19 | $14 | 153 | $0.46 |
| RB22 | Cedric Benson | Cin/8 | $11 | $18 | $14 | 149 | $0.27 |
| RB23 | Pierre Thomas | NO/5 | $24 | $17 | $13 | 149 | $0.67 |
| RB24 | Joseph Addai | Ind/6 | $17 | $16 | $12 | 147 | $0.47 |
| RB25 | Ray Rice | Bal/7 | $13 | $16 | $12 | 146 | $0.36 |
| RB26 | Derrick Ward | TB/8 | $13 | $14 | $11 | 143 | $0.40 |
| RB27 | Willie Parker | Pit/8 | $12 | $12 | $9 | 141 | $0.40 |
| RB28 | Reggie Bush | NO/5 | $24 | $10 | $8 | 136 | $1.08 |
| RB29 | Donald Brown | Ind/6 | $11 | $9 | -- | 135 | $0.46 |
| RB30 | Knowshon Moreno | Den/7 | $22 | $8 | -- | 131 | $1.30 |
| RB31 | Earnest Graham | TB/8 | $3 | $7 | -- | 130 | $0.07 |
| RB32 | Jamal Lewis | Cle/9 | $6 | $4 | -- | 125 | $0.44 |
| RB33 | Tim Hightower | Ari/4 | $6 | $3 | -- | 121 | $0.82 |
| RB34 | Jonathan Stewart | Car/4 | $11 | $2 | -- | 120 | $2.25 |
| RB35 | Leon Washington | NYJ/9 | $7 | $2 | -- | 119 | $1.47 |
| RB36 | Fred Taylor | NE/8 | $2 | $2 | -- | 116 | -- |
| RB37 | Fred Jackson | Buf/9 | $6 | $2 | -- | 114 | -- |
| RB38 | LenDale White | Ten/7 | $9 | $1 | -- | 108 | -- |
| RB39 | Chester Taylor | Min/9 | $4 | $1 | -- | 107 | -- |
| RB40 | Darren Sproles | SD/5 | $7 | $1 | -- | 105 | -- |
| RB41 | Chris Wells | Ari/4 | $13 | $1 | -- | 104 | -- |
| RB42 | Jerious Norwood | Atl/4 | $4 | $1 | -- | 104 | -- |
| RB43 | Felix Jones | Dal/6 | $10 | $1 | -- | 103 | -- |
| RB44 | Ricky Williams | Mia/6 | $3 | $1 | -- | 103 | -- |
| RB45 | Julius Jones | Sea/7 | $7 | $1 | -- | 98 | -- |
| RB46 | Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG/10 | $7 | $1 | -- | 97 | -- |
| RB47 | Rashard Mendenhall | Pit/8 | $8 | $1 | -- | 96 | -- |
| RB48 | Edgerrin James | Sea/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 96 | -- |
| RB49 | Kevin Faulk | NE/8 | $2 | $1 | -- | 96 | -- |
| RB50 | Michael Bush | Oak/9 | $2 | $1 | -- | 92 | -- |
| RB51 | Le\'Ron McClain | Bal/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 88 | -- |
| RB52 | LeSean McCoy | Phi/4 | $9 | $1 | -- | 86 | -- |
| RB53 | Jamaal Charles | KC/8 | $3 | $1 | -- | 82 | -- |
| RB54 | Willis McGahee | Bal/7 | $4 | $1 | -- | 78 | -- |
| RB55 | Ladell Betts | Was/8 | $2 | $1 | -- | 73 | -- |
| RB56 | Jerome Harrison | Cle/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 65 | -- |
| RB57 | Kevin Jones | Chi/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 63 | -- |
| RB58 | Mewelde Moore | Pit/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 60 | -- |
| RB59 | Rashad Jennings | Jac/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 59 | -- |
| RB60 | James Davis | Cle/9 | $2 | $1 | -- | 57 | -- |
| RB61 | Shonn Greene | NYJ/9 | $6 | $1 | -- | 55 | -- |
| RB62 | Glen Coffee | SF/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 55 | -- |
| RB63 | Justin Fargas | Oak/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 54 | -- |
| RB64 | Chris Brown | Hou/10 | $1 | $1 | -- | 54 | -- |
| RB65 | Correll Buckhalter | Den/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 50 | -- |
| RB66 | Laurence Maroney | NE/8 | $3 | $1 | -- | 49 | -- |
| RB67 | Tashard Choice | Dal/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 49 | -- |
| RB68 | Sammy Morris | NE/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 48 | -- |
| RB69 | Maurice Morris | Det/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 46 | -- |
| RB70 | Bernard Scott | Cin/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 45 | -- |
| RB71 | Brandon Jackson | GB/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 38 | -- |
| RB72 | Mike Goodson | Car/4 | $1 | $1 | -- | 24 | -- |
| RB73 | Lamont Jordan | Den/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 21 | -- |
| TE1 | Jason Witten | Dal/6 | $22 | $25 | $19 | 137 | $0.34 |
| TE2 | Antonio Gates | SD/5 | $17 | $21 | $16 | 123 | $0.34 |
| TE3 | Tony Gonzalez | Atl/4 | $14 | $16 | $12 | 111 | $0.37 |
| TE4 | Dallas Clark | Ind/6 | $13 | $14 | $11 | 107 | $0.39 |
| TE5 | Greg Olsen | Chi/5 | $10 | $13 | $10 | 106 | $0.29 |
| TE6 | Chris Cooley | Was/8 | $8 | $8 | -- | 99 | $0.29 |
| TE7 | Owen Daniels | Hou/10 | $8 | $7 | -- | 96 | $0.36 |
| TE8 | Zach Miller | Oak/9 | $4 | $5 | -- | 91 | $0.16 |
| TE9 | John Carlson | Sea/7 | $6 | $5 | -- | 91 | $0.34 |
| TE10 | Kellen Winslow | TB/8 | $8 | $4 | -- | 90 | $0.53 |
| TE11 | Dustin Keller | NYJ/9 | $4 | $4 | -- | 90 | $0.18 |
| TE12 | Vernon Davis | SF/6 | $2 | $2 | -- | 79 | -- |
| TE13 | Jeremy Shockey | NO/5 | $3 | $2 | -- | 78 | -- |
| TE14 | Heath Miller | Pit/8 | $2 | $2 | -- | 77 | -- |
| TE15 | Visanthe Shiancoe | Min/9 | $2 | $2 | -- | 73 | -- |
| TE16 | Tony Scheffler | Den/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 68 | -- |
| TE17 | Brent Celek | Phi/4 | $2 | $1 | -- | 68 | -- |
| TE18 | Anthony Fasano | Mia/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 68 | -- |
| TE19 | Randy McMichael | StL/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 61 | -- |
| TE20 | Marcedes Lewis | Jac/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 59 | -- |
| TE21 | Kevin Boss | NYG/10 | $1 | $1 | -- | 58 | -- |
| TE22 | Todd Heap | Bal/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 57 | -- |
| TE23 | Bo Scaife | Ten/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 55 | -- |
| TE24 | Jermichael Finley | GB/5 | $2 | $1 | -- | 49 | -- |
| TE25 | Jared Cook | Ten/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 44 | -- |
| TE26 | Martellus Bennett | Dal/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 43 | -- |
| TE27 | Brandon Pettigrew | Det/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 41 | -- |
| TE28 | Ben Watson | NE/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 21 | -- |
| WR1 | Randy Moss | NE/8 | $39 | $61 | $46 | 203 | $0.33 |
| WR2 | Larry Fitzgerald | Ari/4 | $45 | $54 | $41 | 197 | $0.41 |
| WR3 | Andre Johnson | Hou/10 | $43 | $52 | $39 | 194 | $0.40 |
| WR4 | Calvin Johnson | Det/7 | $40 | $44 | $33 | 188 | $0.39 |
| WR5 | Steve Smith | Car/4 | $33 | $40 | $30 | 180 | $0.35 |
| WR6 | Roddy White | Atl/4 | $32 | $36 | $27 | 177 | $0.35 |
| WR7 | Greg Jennings | GB/5 | $34 | $35 | $26 | 176 | $0.38 |
| WR8 | Reggie Wayne | Ind/6 | $34 | $33 | $25 | 175 | $0.38 |
| WR9 | Dwayne Bowe | KC/8 | $28 | $27 | $20 | 165 | $0.35 |
| WR10 | Anquan Boldin | Ari/4 | $32 | $26 | $20 | 162 | $0.42 |
| WR11 | Chad Ochocinco | Cin/8 | $20 | $24 | $18 | 156 | $0.28 |
| WR12 | Braylon Edwards | Cle/9 | $20 | $23 | $17 | 152 | $0.29 |
| WR13 | Wes Welker | NE/8 | $29 | $22 | $17 | 151 | $0.45 |
| WR14 | Marques Colston | NO/5 | $31 | $22 | $17 | 150 | $0.49 |
| WR15 | T.J. Houshmandzadeh | Sea/7 | $21 | $22 | $17 | 145 | $0.36 |
| WR16 | Anthony Gonzalez | Ind/6 | $17 | $20 | $15 | 139 | $0.31 |
| WR17 | Santonio Holmes | Pit/8 | $13 | $20 | $15 | 139 | $0.23 |
| WR18 | DeSean Jackson | Phi/4 | $18 | $19 | $14 | 138 | $0.34 |
| WR19 | Eddie Royal | Den/7 | $19 | $19 | $14 | 138 | $0.37 |
| WR20 | Vincent Jackson | SD/5 | $18 | $18 | $14 | 135 | $0.36 |
| WR21 | Terrell Owens | Buf/9 | $23 | $17 | $13 | 134 | $0.49 |
| WR22 | Devin Hester | Chi/5 | $8 | $17 | $13 | 133 | $0.14 |
| WR23 | Hines Ward | Pit/8 | $9 | $15 | $11 | 131 | $0.18 |
| WR24 | Bernard Berrian | Min/9 | $10 | $15 | $11 | 130 | $0.20 |
| WR25 | Santana Moss | Was/8 | $10 | $14 | $11 | 130 | $0.21 |
| WR26 | Donnie Avery | StL/9 | $10 | $13 | $10 | 126 | $0.23 |
| WR27 | Antonio Bryant | TB/8 | $12 | $12 | $9 | 125 | $0.29 |
| WR28 | Jerricho Cotchery | NYJ/9 | $10 | $12 | $9 | 125 | $0.24 |
| WR29 | Donald Driver | GB/5 | $8 | $11 | $8 | 122 | $0.19 |
| WR30 | Lee Evans | Buf/9 | $11 | $11 | $8 | 122 | $0.29 |
| WR31 | Torry Holt | Jac/7 | $8 | $9 | -- | 121 | $0.20 |
| WR32 | Domenik Hixon | NYG/10 | $4 | $8 | -- | 118 | $0.08 |
| WR33 | Roy Williams | Dal/6 | $19 | $7 | -- | 115 | $0.70 |
| WR34 | Josh Morgan | SF/6 | $3 | $5 | -- | 112 | $0.05 |
| WR35 | Laveranues Coles | Cin/8 | $9 | $4 | -- | 110 | $0.38 |
| WR36 | Kevin Walter | Hou/10 | $7 | $3 | -- | 107 | $0.31 |
| WR37 | Ted Ginn | Mia/6 | $7 | $3 | -- | 106 | $0.33 |
| WR38 | Chris Henry | Cin/8 | $4 | $3 | -- | 105 | $0.14 |
| WR39 | Steve Breaston | Ari/4 | $6 | $2 | -- | 101 | $0.40 |
| WR40 | Brandon Marshall | Den/7 | $22 | $2 | -- | 100 | $2.15 |
| WR41 | Lance Moore | NO/5 | $8 | $2 | -- | 100 | $0.65 |
| WR42 | Derrick Mason | Bal/7 | $6 | $2 | -- | 96 | $0.81 |
| WR43 | Percy Harvin | Min/9 | $7 | $1 | -- | 93 | $2.34 |
| WR44 | Steve Smith | NYG/10 | $3 | $1 | -- | 93 | $0.54 |
| WR45 | Michael Jenkins | Atl/4 | $2 | $1 | -- | 91 | -- |
| WR46 | Nate Washington | Ten/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 90 | -- |
| WR47 | Earl Bennett | Chi/5 | $3 | $1 | -- | 89 | -- |
| WR48 | Nate Burleson | Sea/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 89 | -- |
| WR49 | Chris Chambers | SD/5 | $3 | $1 | -- | 87 | -- |
| WR50 | Mark Clayton | Bal/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 86 | -- |
| WR51 | Muhsin Muhammad | Car/4 | $2 | $1 | -- | 86 | -- |
| WR52 | Justin Gage | Ten/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 84 | -- |
| WR53 | Mark Bradley | KC/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 82 | -- |
| WR54 | Joey Galloway | NE/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 82 | -- |
| WR55 | Isaac Bruce | SF/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 80 | -- |
| WR56 | Devin Thomas | Was/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 79 | -- |
| WR57 | Robert Meachem | NO/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 77 | -- |
| WR58 | Sidney Rice | Min/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 77 | -- |
| WR59 | Davone Bess | Mia/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 76 | -- |
| WR60 | Mike Walker | Jac/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 73 | -- |
| WR61 | Hakeem Nicks | NYG/10 | $4 | $1 | -- | 70 | -- |
| WR62 | Laurent Robinson | StL/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 68 | -- |
| WR63 | Patrick Crayton | Dal/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 68 | -- |
| WR64 | Kevin Curtis | Phi/4 | $2 | $1 | -- | 65 | -- |
| WR65 | Chaz Schilens | Oak/9 | $2 | $1 | -- | 65 | -- |
| WR66 | Jeremy Maclin | Phi/4 | $3 | $1 | -- | 63 | -- |
| WR67 | Kenny Britt | Ten/7 | $2 | $1 | -- | 59 | -- |
| WR68 | Bobby Engram | KC/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 58 | -- |
| WR69 | Greg Camarillo | Mia/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 54 | -- |
| WR70 | Michael Crabtree | SF/6 | $8 | $1 | -- | 52 | -- |
| WR71 | Devery Henderson | NO/5 | $2 | $1 | -- | 50 | -- |
| WR72 | Jordy Nelson | GB/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 49 | -- |
| WR73 | Johnnie Lee Higgins | Oak/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 47 | -- |
| WR74 | Miles Austin | Dal/6 | $3 | $1 | -- | 46 | -- |
| WR75 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Oak/9 | $3 | $1 | -- | 45 | -- |
| WR76 | Deion Branch | Sea/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 44 | -- |
| WR77 | Limas Sweed | Pit/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 41 | -- |
| WR78 | Brian Robiskie | Cle/9 | $4 | $1 | -- | 35 | -- |
| Def1 | Chicago Bears | Chi/5 | $4 | $11 | $8 | 159 | $0.14 |
| Def2 | Baltimore Ravens | Bal/7 | $5 | $6 | -- | 157 | $0.20 |
| Def3 | San Diego Chargers | SD/5 | $3 | $8 | -- | 157 | $0.10 |
| Def4 | Green Bay Packers | GB/5 | $2 | $4 | -- | 153 | $0.06 |
| Def5 | Minnesota Vikings | Min/9 | $5 | $4 | -- | 149 | $0.33 |
| Def6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Pit/8 | $6 | $3 | -- | 146 | $0.56 |
| Def7 | Philadelphia Eagles | Phi/4 | $4 | $3 | -- | 146 | $0.33 |
| Def8 | New York Jets | NYJ/9 | $2 | $2 | -- | 142 | $0.20 |
| Def9 | Tennessee Titans | Ten/7 | $2 | $2 | -- | 142 | $0.20 |
| Def10 | New York Giants | NYG/10 | $4 | $2 | -- | 139 | $1.50 |
| Def11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB/8 | $1 | $2 | -- | 137 | -- |
| Def12 | Arizona Cardinals | Ari/4 | $1 | $2 | -- | 137 | -- |
| Def13 | New England Patriots | NE/8 | $2 | $2 | -- | 136 | -- |
| Def14 | Seattle Seahawks | Sea/7 | $1 | $2 | -- | 136 | -- |
| Def15 | Dallas Cowboys | Dal/6 | $2 | $1 | -- | 131 | -- |
| Def16 | Miami Dolphins | Mia/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 125 | -- |
| Def17 | Indianapolis Colts | Ind/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 124 | -- |
| Def18 | Carolina Panthers | Car/4 | $1 | $1 | -- | 112 | -- |
| Def19 | Washington Redskins | Was/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 107 | -- |
| PK1 | Stephen Gostkowski | NE/8 | $3 | $4 | -- | 162 | $0.10 |
| PK2 | Nate Kaeding | SD/5 | $2 | $3 | -- | 159 | $0.06 |
| PK3 | Mason Crosby | GB/5 | $2 | $3 | -- | 152 | $0.09 |
| PK4 | Rob Bironas | Ten/7 | $2 | $2 | -- | 146 | $0.20 |
| PK5 | David Akers | Phi/4 | $2 | $2 | -- | 143 | $0.50 |
| PK6 | Jason Elam | Atl/4 | $2 | $2 | -- | 143 | $0.50 |
| PK7 | Neil Rackers | Ari/4 | $1 | $2 | -- | 141 | -- |
| PK8 | Ryan Longwell | Min/9 | $1 | $2 | -- | 139 | -- |
| PK9 | Lawrence Tynes | NYG/10 | $1 | $2 | -- | 138 | -- |
| PK10 | Nick Folk | Dal/6 | $1 | $2 | -- | 136 | -- |
| PK11 | Kris Brown | Hou/10 | $1 | $2 | -- | 135 | -- |
| PK12 | Robbie Gould | Chi/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 133 | -- |
| PK13 | John Kasay | Car/4 | $1 | $1 | -- | 133 | -- |
| PK14 | Jeff Reed | Pit/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 130 | -- |
| PK15 | Rian Lindell | Buf/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 126 | -- |
| PK16 | Adam Vinatieri | Ind/6 | $1 | $1 | -- | 118 | -- |
| PK17 | Shayne Graham | Cin/8 | $1 | $1 | -- | 117 | -- |
| PK18 | Matt Prater | Den/7 | $1 | $1 | -- | 115 | -- |
| PK19 | Josh Brown | StL/9 | $1 | $1 | -- | 113 | -- |
| PK20 | Garrett Hartley | NO/5 | $1 | $1 | -- | 107 | -- |
Let's have the perfect auction...
This article is going to jump around a bit, because there are a few dynamic strategies that are taking place. Namely, the early auction pricing (and what players you get here) and your overall positional spending plan. Both are dynamic based on the players you get making this article very difficult to write to handle every possible scenario.
Early Auction - First 40-50 Nominated Players
In most auctions, these first players nominated (and selected) will be overpriced. That's not always the case, but when owners have the majority of their cap available, usually at least two owners want the star that is being bid on. This practically guarantees "market" or "above market" price for the star players. This is also compounded because at least a few owners will pursue a "stars and scrub" approach to an auction where they spend 90+% of their cap on 5-6 players and fill in the holes with $1-$2 bargains. You may even end up being one of these teams too, but you should not go into an auction with only this approach. Let value guide the type of team that makes sense to build.
Your strategy: In the table in this article, there is a 75% level for the top 75 players. You should actively bid on EVERY one of these 75 players up to the 75% level early in a draft if the player can be used in your starting lineup (ie your first QB, top 2 RBs, top 3 WRs, top TE, etc). You have a strong chance at landing players highlighted in green at or below the 75% level. Grab enough of these and your team will be very hard to beat. In most auctions though, you are likely to get outbid on most of these players as owners go to the wall for their guy.
Nominating players during this phase: I suggest not nominating players you want during this phase. In fact, I suggest nominating the guys that have high cost per VBD numbers. Your goal here is to drain as much of the cap from other owners to ensure better pricing on players that you are targeting. As a general rule, the later players get nominated the better value they will represent.
Assessment during this phase: As these first players are being auctioned off, keep track of their actual values against their projected average cost. Is massive overspending happening? Are the prices close? Are the other owners allocating more for a certain position than another, etc? What makes auction pricing difficult is that you have to make certain adjustments on the fly. And those adjustments are likely going to happen based on the pricing of these first 40 players. The good news is a program like the Draft Dominator will dynamically adjust auction pricing as completed bids are finished.
Besides assessing the overall and positional pricing, you have to assess how to spend the rest of your cap after every player selected. Obviously if you land a top RB that costs you $50, that will impact what other players you should target. I generally don't worry about this IF I am adding starters. If you get another stud RB at 75% of value, pull the trigger. But be VERY CAREFUL bidding on players that will not be starters for you. Getting value on the 3rd and 4th RB after spending half of your cap on RBs 1 and 2 will not yield the best possible team.
This is where all this gets really messy with a one article fits all strategy. After 40-50 players have been selected, I think to be successful, you have to have a very detailed positional plan that you are building your team towards. At your team's core are the players you selected in the first 40-50 picks. Each of these should be a great value. The players in the table listed in green (and to a lesser extent in yellow) are the players you likely can build your auction team around.
The Master Plan for your 20 spots
I go into every auction and map out a general strategy. This is the strategy assuming you got everyone at average cost and you built your team around the best of these values (players highlighted in green in the chart). I usually pencil in my hopeful player, but I am not locked into these players. The values are placeholders and reflect the $200 cap. As you add players (hopefully at deep discounts), you need to adjust the Master Plan based on cap left and changes in strength/weakness of your roster.
Here is an example of a Master Plan with inexpensive QBs (My preferred strategy) and you getting Randy Moss at a decent price:
QB1 - Ben Roethlisberger, Pit/8 ($8)QB2 - David Garrard, Jac/7 ($6)
QB3 - Jason Campbell, Was/8 ($2)
RB1 - Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10 ($30)
RB2 - Ryan Grant, GB/5 ($22)
RB3 - Thomas Jones, NYJ/9 ($14)
RB4 - Cedric Benson, Cin/8 ($11)
RB5 - Fred Taylor, NE/8 ($2)
RB6 - Kevin Jones, Chi/5 ($1)
WR1 - Randy Moss, NE/8 ($39)
WR2 - Chad Ochocinco, Cin/8 ($20)
WR3 - Braylon Edwards, Cle/9 ($20)
WR4 - Devin Hester, Chi/5 ($8)
WR5 - Domenik Hixon, NYG/10 ($4)
WR6 - Josh Morgan, SF/6 ($3)
WR7 - Joey Galloway, NE/8 ($1)
TE1 - Zach Miller, Oak/9 ($4)
TE2 - Todd Heap, Bal/7 ($1)
PK1 - Nate Kaeding, SD/5 ($2)
Def1 - San Diego Chargers, SD/5 ($3)
Cost is $201 which is close enough for planning purposes. Getting Moss early at a good price would trigger this plan of action.
Here is an example of a Master Plan led with Brady at QB. This is also an excellent approach this year especially if you expect Brady to play similar to 2007 numbers:
QB1 - Tom Brady, NE/8 ($33)QB2 - David Garrard, Jac/7 ($6)
QB3 - Andrew Walter, NE/8 ($1)
RB1 - Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10 ($30)
RB2 - Ryan Grant, GB/5 ($22)
RB3 - Thomas Jones, NYJ/9 ($14)
RB4 - Cedric Benson, Cin/8 ($11)
RB5 - Fred Taylor, NE/8 ($2)
RB6 - Kevin Jones, Chi/5 ($1)
WR1 - Chad Ochocinco, Cin/8 ($20)
WR2 - Braylon Edwards, Cle/9 ($20)
WR3 - Santonio Holmes, Pit/8 ($13)
WR4 - Devin Hester, Chi/5 ($8)
WR5 - Domenik Hixon, NYG/10 ($4)
WR6 - Josh Morgan, SF/6 ($3)
WR7 - Nate Burleson, Sea/7 ($1)
TE1 - Zach Miller, Oak/9 ($4)
TE2 - Dustin Keller, NYJ/9 ($4)
PK1 - Nate Kaeding, SD/5 ($2)
Def1 - San Diego Chargers, SD/5 ($3)
Cost is $200 exactly. You have a bye week issue at tight end, but it's not until late in the season.
Here is an example of a Master Plan with limited depth (Studs and duds philosophy).
QB1 - Tom Brady, NE/8 ($33)QB2 - Jason Campbell, Was/8 ($2)
QB3 - Andrew Walter, NE/8 ($1)
RB1 - Brandon Jacobs, NYG/10 ($30)
RB2 - Ryan Grant, GB/5 ($22)
RB3 - Thomas Jones, NYJ/9 ($14)
RB4 - Fred Taylor, NE/8 ($2)
RB5 - Kevin Jones, Chi/5 ($1)
RB6 - Jerome Harrison, Cle/9 ($1)
WR1 - Randy Moss, NE/8 ($39)
WR2 - Chad Ochocinco, Cin/8 ($20)
WR3 - Braylon Edwards, Cle/9 ($20)
WR4 - Domenik Hixon, NYG/10 ($4)
WR5 - Josh Morgan, SF/6 ($3)
WR6 - Nate Burleson, Sea/7 ($1)
WR7 - Joey Galloway, NE/8 ($1)
TE1 - Zach Miller, Oak/9 ($4)
TE2 - Todd Heap, Bal/7 ($1)
PK1 - Best Available ($1)
Def1 - Best Available ($1)
Cost is $201 which is close enough for planning purposes. This is putting all of your marbles in the New England pass attack, but if right you likely will cruise to the championship.
Recapping, you use a plan as a baseline. As you land players, pencil them in and adjust the plan accordingly. As players you had hoped to land go for more than expected, cross them off the plan and adjust the plan accordingly with other players.
Early Middle Auction - Picks 50-100
Just like the middle rounds of a draft, there will be varied opinions on a lot of these players. Some will be very expensive and others should be nice bargains. Bid to secure the people within your plan during these middle stages. I prefer to nominate positions where I am the strongest at during this phase. If you landed Brady at a discount, just keep nominating QBs since you would like these players going as close to full price as possible.
Keep adjusting your master plan to ensure you use up all of your dollars available without overspending too much on any one player to limit your participation in the back half of the draft.
Late Middle Auction - Picks 100-150
If you weren't active much early in the draft, you likely will control the action in this stage. These players usually come at a discount, but a team crafted with all $5-$10 players is usually a weak one (Deep, but usually not explosive enough to beat teams in non-bye weeks). I like to have done solid bidding up to this phase so that I am just looking for the best of these deals. In this phase, you should try and slide your $1/$2 players you have targeted through. Most of the owners will allow a cheap kicker through because they don't want to spend the extra dollar either.
The End Game
Usually this phase consists of bad players left, but if you have crafted a team with great starters with limited depth then these nominations can be the difference between a good and great auction. Cheap handcuffs, swing for the fences picks are the norm here. If I need to be active in the end game, I prefer allowing myself at least $2 for half of my remaining picks. Let's assume you have 8 spots left to fill. You should leave yourself with at least $12 to fill these spots. This allows you maximum flexibility to nominate at $1 and bid $2 on the best players left. You should not bid $5 and then leave yourself with just $7 to get 7 players (even if the $5 bid is a player worth more than the $5). It's all about cap management in the endgame. You can squeeze a considerable amount of value in this phase, but unfortunately it's mostly bench strength. Always manage your cap sufficiently so that you can spend all your dollars, but if it means controlling the last 50-75 picks, I think eating a dollar or two is ok too.
The QB Plan
Not a lot of value with the early picks. I have seen Brady get a deep discount in some auctions though. Be ready to capitalize on that should it present itself. If Brady is too expensive, you can usually get fair value with McNabb, Romo, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Schaub and Garrard. You needto end up with one from this list.
The RB Plan
I suggest you avoid the big names as none will go below market value in my opinion. I like crafting a unit consisting of Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant and Thomas Jones. Also keep an eye on Ronnie Brown, Kevin Smith and Darren McFadden as I have seen those players slide considerably. Cedric Benson almost always goes at a deep discount. The extra value you can preserve by avoiding a top ten RB selection should allow you to dominate the rest of the auction. Fred Taylor, Earnest Graham, Edgerrin James, Kevin Faulk, Michael Bush are all nice options late. Handcuffing the Oakland RBs (McFadden/Bush), Buffalo RBs (Lynch/Jackson) and/or the Detroit RBs (Smith/Jones) can provide a very cheap RB solution that should outperform their cost.
The WR Plan
Value always emerges at wide receiver. Just stay active and you will grab some players at a deep discount. Avoid the consensus top WRs, but be active in landing solid ones (WR10 through WR25) to field a solid team. WRs 22-36 usually are among the best bargains in any auction. These guys generally go for $6-$12. Even if you can't start all these players, most will command good trade value in start 3 WR leagues once the bye weeks hit.
The TE Plan
Just wait out the position and you should be able to land Zach Miller or Dustin Keller at a discount. Add Todd heap or Jermichael Finley cheaply and you will be in great shape.
The PK Plan
My plan usually involves spending at most $2 to get a decent kicker.
The Defense Plan
A lot of this depends on how well I end up managing my cap. I generally will spend about $3 to get a top 5 defense.
More Thoughts
- Nominate players you can't use early in the process. If you know you aren't going to bid high on Peyton Manning then nominate him early while everyone has lots of dollars available. Remember your goal is to start every other team going down the wrong road of cap allocation.
- Follow an overpriced bid with a player from the same position that is generally considered better. If Frank Gore fetches $45 (against a value of $35 based on your calculations), then nominate Chris Johnson next. The point you are attempting to achieve is to continue having people overbid on players.
- Don't feel left out if you are consistently being outbid early. Conservative cap management early usually leads to great teams. Just don't be so cheap that you find yourself without good starters to purchase.
- Since only the top defenses and kickers usually go for anything more than the minimum, nominate the 5th or 6th best at these positions for a dollar. You will either get this player or force someone to waste a dollar or more. Either way you have succeeded.
- Never increase your bid by more than the minimum. The auction is not the place to show how macho you are. Getting players as cheaply as possible is always the correct route.
- Very early in the auction, you can sometimes get cute by announcing junk at the minimum bid. Junk players have some value, but would likely go for the minimum at the end of the auction. But announced early, they sometimes go for $5. Sit back and smile when RB Laurence Maroney gets bid up and these same owners don't have the money to bid on quality elsewhere.
- Don't participate in a bidding war (cost of bid is greater than player's worth) in an attempt to drive up what others pay. This can backfire fast and mess up your roster in a hurry.
- During the auction, adjust undrafted player values dynamically based on previous bids in this auction. (This is very hard to do manually, but we do this automatically with our Draft Dominator software). This is very important to make sure you are not overbidding during the draft. A player's dynamic value can change significantly during the draft if massive over-bidding/under-bidding occurs.
- When the bid gets to two to three owners, evaluate the seriousness of their bid by examining their core roster and dollar requirements left. It might be wise to give up on a player as the dollars drained may serve a better purpose towards minimizing the number of owners who can block you from getting certain talent later.
- Never leave money on the table at the end of the auction. Winning teams spend all of their cap and you need to do the same. Being so conservative that no good players are left to spend all of your dollars at the end of the draft is terrible cap management.
- Consider creating value by taking two players involved in a depth chart controversy. The controversy allows both of the players to be undervalued and can protect your roster against injury.
- Don't assume a few overvalued superstars will kill a team. Just because an owner overpays for a few players does not mean they will be terrible. Owners that power their team with a few superstars usually lack depth, but if they are anchored by Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson, they may not need it (if both stay healthy). I prefer a solid deep team, but have seen some experts allocate 90+% of their cap on their 4 top players. Just don't let these teams steal guys real late when everyone else is broke.
- Track everyone's picks and dollars available. You can easily do this by using the Draft Dominator