Reading the Defense Preseason Report
Posted 8/28 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
The first half of the preseason has been a busy one on the defensive side of the ball. Injuries, position competitions and changes in role have significantly changed the outlook for a number of big -name players. We've been covering many of these issues in the IDP Forum and on the IDP Roundtable podcast on the Audible, but the fast-moving landscape warrants an update for all our print readers who may have drafts this weekend. If you're just now starting your research, make sure you roll back through the article archives. In the past month, our IDP staff has put together a series of value plays and sleeper articles, John Norton has updated his top notch Eyes of the Guru preview with some early preseason thoughts and there has already been one extended From the Gut released earlier in the month. Let's jump right into the preseason IDP news with our own version of a hybrid front from the Stunts section from the Reading the Defense column and the From the Gut article.
Stunts
The Ravens have been a multiple front defense for years, but usually lean toward a 3-4 on base defensive downs. That may be changing under new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, who is planning to scale back the playbook and reacting to changes in personnel. With NT Kelly Gregg healthy and versatile rookie DE/OLB Paul Kruger in the mix and all-around LB Bart Scott no longer a Raven, Mattison has had the defense in a 4-3 front often early in the preseason. That may not change the expectations of the Raven defenders, but it may mean that LB Tavares Gooden isn't as NFL-ready as expected and give Kruger a bigger situational role than expected.
As usual, the Bengals are an enigma. It was immediately obvious that rookie LB Rey Maualuga was the best player on the field among the second and third teams in his first preseason game. The insider's look we get through Hard Knocks strongly suggests that his LB coach and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer clearly want him on the field. However, we're left to wonder if the combination of Mike Brown and Marvin Lewis will again side with veterans like Dhani Jones and Rashad Jeanty, fearing that Maualuga will miss too many assignments in his youthful exuberance and passion to make a play. However, if Maualuga continues at his early pace, he'll force the team's hand as Odell Thurman did once upon a time. IDP owners can only hope Maualuga works out better than Thurman did.
Expect to see the Jaguars in plenty of 3-4 sets this year. Over the past two years, we've heard rumblings that the Jags were considering changing the scheme. We've also heard that Jack Del Rio was likely too proud to abandon the 4-3 front he'd used for many seasons. The Jags were aligned in a base 3-4 front for an entire series in their first preseason game, and, though the preseason is time to evaluate some of the newer things installed in camp, this smells like more. It's not bad news for Justin Durant, who was playing MLB in the 4-3 and WILB in the 3-4, and it might open up some additional opportunities for Derrick Harvey and Clint Ingram, who were at OLB in the 3-4 front.
The Patriots will likely move back to their multiple front roots this year after lining up almost exclusively in the 3-4 last season on base downs. New England aligned nearly exclusively in a 4-3 during the first preseason week, before using more 3-4 looks during the second preseason game. Given the depth on the Patriot defensive line, it won't be surprising to see the 4-3 regularly. The primary beneficiary would be Richard Seymour, who will see more time as a 1-gap 4-3 DE outside the offensive tackle, with Ty Warren also likely to see some added value.
It seemed prudent to dismiss the OTA news that Ricky Brown was pushing Kirk Morrison for snaps at MLB. While the Raiders were known to be disappointed in the run defense, Morrison appeared an unlikely scapegoat. Well before Morrison's dislocated elbow during the second preseason game, however, Brown was taking plenty of reps with the ones at MLB. There's also plenty of precedent for a MLB transition around contract time in Oakland. Napoleon Harris pushed aside Greg Biekert and Morrison himself bumped Danny Clark in recent years. Still, the smart money is on Morrison reclaiming his starting job (as was rumored before the injury) when healthy. Dynasty owners should be planning for the Raiders to look in another direction at MLB in 2010, with the expectation that Morrison could be in another uniform or in a new role. If Morrison and Brown swap roles this year, the once elite value in Oakland's LB corps is gone. Morrison won't be valuable as an every-down SLB and Brown will be an inconsistent, replacement level MLB playing in the base defense only.
Already a starter in the Charger nickel subpackage, Kevin Burnett was elevated to the starting WILB position in the base defense after the first preseason game. That depth chart change is extremely telling, as the San Diego front office and coaching staff has had three years to evaluate Dobbins in practice and on game tape. Burnett would have to flop hard to lose the every-down job. And, while Stephen Cooper has pushed the WILB job into IDP obscurity with his solid play over the years, this defense is similar enough to the 1-gap scheme Donnie Edwards rode to elite numbers earlier in the decade. Durability has been an issue for Burnett, but a LB3+ expectation is well within reach if he stays healthy and plays to form.
The Lion defense is nothing like many projected last month. Jim Schwartz apparently feels strongly that neither Dewayne White nor Cliff Avril are stout enough against the run to play LDE, where Jason Hunter has replaced injured Jared DeVries. Julian Peterson is not only not playing a down lineman role on passing downs, he's been off the field altogether on nickel downs through the first two preseason games, with Larry Foote assuming an every-down role. And it's Kalvin Pearson emerging at SS with Daniel Bullocks on IR and Marquand Manuel unable to practice with an injury of his own. Foote gets a clear bump into LB3 territory, Peterson drops significantly, Pearson should be considered a high upside DB4 or later in your drafts and the defensive line is in a holding pattern for now.
It's not been widely reported yet since Nick Barnett has only recently been cleared for practice, but don't be surprised to find A.J. Hawk on the sidelines in the nickel when the Packer defense finally returns to full strength. Brandon Chillar has been effective in coverage packages and there are indications he'll play alongside Barnett in the nickel. The news may be even worse for Hawk. Although Desmond Bishop is currently running behind Barnett at WILB, he's been the most impressive linebacker in camp and arguably the best SILB fit on the roster. Hawk still is tentative at the point of attack and poor shedding blocks, a combination that will cost the Packers dearly in the new scheme. Watch for developments on this one over the final two preseason weeks.
Stewart Bradley's ACL injury elevated thumping MLB prospect Joe Mays into the starting lineup, where he looks likely to stick over competition from Omar Gaither and Matt Wilhelm. While Mays has played in the nickel in the first two preseason games, expect Gaither to assume those duties during the regular season. That's likely to make Mays a marginal IDP option, startable only in games where the Eagles are expected to face a large percentage of rushing attempts (i.e. the NYG matchups). The real statistical winner may be Quintin Mikell, who could benefit from the transition at MLB, especially early in the season.
Despite indications that he'd be a SLB, or at best a LOLB, in the Seattle 4-3 front, Aaron Curry lined up at WLB during the first preseason game. He's yet to earn a role in the nickel packages, but will see a significant bump in value when he does, especially if the Seahawks use more Cover-2/Tampa-2 looks under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
The Tampa Bay defense took two big hits last week. Projected SLB Angelo Crowell went down for the season with injury and FS Tanard Jackson was suspended for four games for a violation of the substance abuse policy. The Bucs elected to play musical chairs in the back seven as a result, formally naming Quincy Black the starting SLB, inserting Geno Hayes into the lineup at WLB and bumping Jermaine Phillips to SS while shifting Sabby Piscitelli to FS. This is a four week trial, with future consideration dependent on how well Hayes plays at WLB. Phillips was playing well at WLB and the original thought was to get Jackson and Piscitelli in the secondary as starters. Unless Hayes impresses, the Bucs are likely to shift back later this season. Either Black or Hayes could earn the nickel role in the meantime, but neither is likely to be more than a risky starter. Piscitelli loses some statistical expectation in the switch, with Phillips value dependent on his position classification (better value in this role listed at DB than LB).
Finally, a few important nickel updates: Eric Barton is playing on the majority of nickel downs alongside D'Qwell Jackson. In Denver, Andra Davis is leaving the field on passing downs in favor of Wes Woodyard or a collection of DBs in a dime package. Xavier Adibi is getting snaps over Zac Diles in Houston. Bobby Carpenter is sending Keith Brooking to the sidelines in the nickel in Dallas. Minnesota's Chad Greenway isn't giving any rotational nickel snaps away to Ben Leber. It remains Scott Shanle over Scott Fujita on most nickel downs in New Orleans. James Laurinaitis is firmly entrenched as an every-down linebacker in St. Louis, as expected.
From the Gut
Competitions at the safety positions on a number of defenses are finally beginning to sort themselves out. In Buffalo, Jairus Byrd is back from a sports hernia issue, but sufficiently behind that it's highly unlikely he'll be able to force a lineup shuffle that would send Bryan Scott from SS to the bench. Dominique Barber has pushed Nick Ferguson aside in Houston. Promising rookie Mike Mitchell has barely been healthy enough to take a rep in Oakland, with Tyvon Branch winning the plum in-the-box SS job by default. Kalvin Pearson has also emerged as a default SS winner in Detroit, though he won't be safe from challenges throughout the season. Branch and Scott are the big upside targets here, while Barber and Pearson are reasonable late draft or early free agent targets.
With Freddie Keiaho nowhere to be found in the mix at OLB with the first team and Phillip Wheeler playing well, Clint Session is locked into an every-down role at WLB in Indianapolis. He's still way undervalued as a LB4 or later by recent ADP trends and will be a steal as a bench player for on-the-ball IDP owners shrewd enough to draft him.
Corey Mays may be looking good early in camp in Kansas City, but don't cut anyone of better talent or future value to roster him. Mays has washed out as an ILB/MLB with other teams, and, although he has only fragile veteran Zach Thomas to dispatch and could play a significant number of nickel snaps as a starter, he's still unlikely to surprise with more than marginal LB3 value. There will likely be better upside options to be had late in the draft.
I've been arguing that Gibril Wilson's value wouldn't take a huge hit due to competition for tackles from Yeremiah Bell and Channing Crowder. I still believe that statistical argument valid. However, it's hard to ignore the number of snaps Wilson has taken deep in the secondary while Bell snuck down into the box. Wilson still has DB1 upside, but early preseason scouting suggests he'll have to overcome some scheme limitations to get there.
We finally have the winner of the rookie corner rule derby. It's not more heralded high draft picks Malcolm Jenkins, Vontae Davis or Alphonso Smith. It's Davis' teammate in Miami, Sean Smith. Already with the size and skill set to be productive, Sean Smith will now have the benefit of opposing quarterbacks targeting him rather than testing solid veteran Will Allen. He should bring big value late in drafts, especially in leagues requiring cornerbacks as starters. Also, while it's not exactly the "rookie" corner rule, don't hesitate to move on Chicago's Zackary Bowman if he holds the corner job alongside Charles Tillman once the injury and competition issues work themselves out.
After watching the first two New York Jet preseason games, I'm reversing course on the Jet ILBs and arguing that David Harris will be a better statistical option than Bart Scott. Harris saw more pass rush opportunities, shed blocks better and got the call at MLB when the defense morphed into a 4-3. The news this offseason was that Scott would be the focal point of the defense and closer to the role that Ray Lewis played for Rex Ryan in Baltimore, and that Jamaal Westerman was potentially pushing Harris for subpackage playing time. The preseason looks certainly suggest otherwise. I'm not ready to argue that Harris is Ray Lewis part deux, but I think he's more likely to top 85 solos than Scott and has a much higher ceiling.
All comments, suggestions and comments are welcome by e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com. I'll continue to update my training camp blog thread in the forum with the latest IDP news and notes throughout early September and the IDP crew will be back on the Audible frequently during camp season as we ramp up to our weekly show. Best of luck during your fantasy drafts as the season approaches.