Reading the Defense Offseason Report
Posted 5/29 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Welcome back defensive football fans. This is the third annual edition of the Reading the Defense Offseason Report. As always, we'll use a mix of statistics, scheme information and gut feelings to project the box score production and value of the league's defensive players.
To give those new to the column a taste of what we try to do, two seasons ago, we argued that subtle variations in 3-4 fronts strongly suggested that the woes of Jonathan Vilma shouldn't be projected on Patrick Willis in his rookie season. We also strongly felt that D.J. Williams was a near lock to finish in the top ten as a MLB based on the details of the Jim Bates led Denver defensive defense in 2007. Last season, we cautioned against dismissing Jerod Mayo's talent because there were signs that his opportunity wouldn't be as bad as what had been suggested. We also argued that the poor numbers put up by the defensive back group as a whole in 2007 were an anomaly and that "reaching" for a stud defensive back was still a viable strategy. We noted players like Antoine Winfield and Gibril Wilson as safe bets and later pointed out potential sleepers like Yeremiah Bell. Not every prediction we make has worked out - Houston cornerback Fred Barnett ended the season on the bench rather in the Top 10, and Zach Thomas couldn't take advantage of his opportunity in Dallas - but each data point should make our future arguments that much stronger.
In this season's Report, we'll again examine the major coaching and scheme changes, make some gut calls based on player movement during free agency and the draft and look for useful information within last season's tackle opportunity metrics.
Team-by-team Review Of Scheme and Coaching Changes Plus Offseason Movement
Twenty-two teams either hired new head coaches or defensive coordinators or reshuffled their coaching staffs and promoted a new defensive coordinator from within. Many of the changes will be accompanied by major changes in defensive philosophy or scheme. Three more teams will expand their playbooks to include 3-4 front concepts. Others are moving away from the Tampa-2 or read-and-react 4-3 fronts to more aggressive 4-3 philosophies. Long time IDP veterans and RTD readers know that scheme changes can greatly affect the production and value of defensive players. Let's start the 2009 Offseason RTD Report by examining the impact of the most significant of these offseason changes.
Denver Broncos
Late in the 2008 season, the Broncos began to showcase some four linebacker fronts on nickel downs and even started a game against Carolina in a 4-4 front, fueling rumors that Denver front office wanted to switch to a 3-4 front. The hiring of Mike Nolan to head the defense after the firing of Mike Shanahan made rumor a reality, then set off a bunch of questions about whether the team had the personnel to make the move. Who provides the pass rush at OLB? Where will the linemen come from to keep the linebackers free to stop the run? Free agency and the draft brought few answers. As it stands now, expect the Broncos to play more of a hybrid front, using a mix of 1-gap 3-4 and 4-3 concepts - similar to what Mike Nolan did in San Francisco. The showcase players in the new defense are likely to be first round draft pick Robert Ayers and veteran LB D.J. Williams. Ayers was lining up at DE in the base defensive package early in the Broncos' OTAs, but will be moved around as Justin Smith was under Nolan last season. He'll likely get snaps at RDE, OLB and possibly a three-technique tackle role on passing downs. He'll be worth a look in all leagues if he gets a DL designation on fantasy league management sites. Williams will find himself in his fourth different position in four seasons, and one that has been every bit as historically productive as the Jim Bates MLB gig in which he ran up 106 solo tackles in 2007. The WILB position that Williams will play in this defense is the same role that Donnie Edwards, Ray Lewis, Keith Brooking and Patrick Willis played and ran up huge tackle numbers. On a team in transition without the talent to provide much competition for tackles, Williams is a great bet to top 100 solos again this year. Those in big play leagues looking for sleeper pass rushing targets will probably want to look elsewhere. Elvis Dumervil and Darrell Reid look to have the early lead on the OLB spots, but neither is likely to have a major impact as rotational players in a hybrid scheme.
Kansas City Chiefs
As it did in Denver, the decision by Kansas City to move to a 3-4 front prompted plenty of personnel questions. Entering the draft and free agency, the Chiefs had no true 3-4 nose tackle, no clear edge rushing OLB prospects, a lack of 3-4 ready defensive end options and only one obvious fit at ILB. Two recent first round draft picks, Glenn Dorsey and Tamba Hali, looked to be poor fits in the new scheme. The Chiefs solved a few of those issues by drafting two very good defensive end prospects, including first round pick Tyson Jackson, and trading for veteran all-around OLB talent Mike Vrabel. Still, the transition won't be easy. The options at NT remain uninspiring and the team will likely struggle to stop the run or generate much pass rush. That should provide plenty of tackle opportunity for the ILB and safeties. The big winner here would appear to be Derrick Johnson. Johnson will play the somewhat less favorable SILB position, but won't have much competition for tackles. Zach Thomas, signed to compete with Monty Beisel and possibly Demorrio Williams inside, struggled mightily in Dallas last season behind a very solid defensive line in a scheme that used more one-gap concepts than this scheme will. If Johnson can get off blocks often enough to consistently make tackles, he's got very good upside. If he can't, strong safety Bernard Pollard could end up becoming this season's Yeremiah Bell.
New York Jets
The Jets hired former Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, whose Raven teams were notoriously well-disciplined and aggressive. Ryan won't have the studs he had in Baltimore, but won't exactly be lacking in talent either. Expect a calculated aggressiveness from a defense that seemed passive at times under Eric Mangini. The major IDP story here will be which inside linebacker will be more likely to produce as Ray Lewis has in Baltimore. For now, it's widely thought that free agent signee Bart Scott will get the highlighted tackle role in this defense. This is a very different surrounding cast, however, and it's likely that David Harris will be more consistently productive than Scott himself was in Baltimore and that both ILBs will have reasonable value. The bulk of the upside lies with Scott - he should be your primary Jet target. You'll also want to watch the reports from OTAs and camp to see how Ryan will use Kerry Rhodes. If he plays the centerfield role that Ed Reed has with the Ravens, he'll remain the inconsistent big play threat he's been over the past two seasons. If he's used up in the box, his numbers could rebound some. Either way, it may be tough for Rhodes to put up 75+ solos behind two very strong inside linebackers and decent all-around talent throughout the front seven.
Detroit Lions
The Lions will remain a 4-3 defense in 2009, but one with a radically different philosophy. Under Rod Marinelli, Detroit was a Tampa-2 base defense. Four man pass rushes, read-and-react philosophy at linebacker, zone coverage behind with a preference for speed over size. New head coach Jim Schwartz favors a more physical and aggressive philosophy, and has a strong preference for size in his front seven. Ordinarily, that might mean a sizable upgrade for the prospective MLB. However, the Lions have two solid OLB talents in Ernie Sims and new addition Julian Peterson and lack a stud MLB to take advantage of what will again be well above-average tackle opportunity and a more favorable defensive scheme. It's also uncertain whether veteran Larry Foote or rookie DeAndre Levy will stay on the field in nickel packages. In the end, the box scores in Detroit could look a lot like those of Schwartz' previous team, the Tennessee Titans, where OLBs David Thornton and Keith Bulluck routinely out-tackled the MLB du jour. That could bode well for Sims, who never took advantage of the added opportunity often afforded to WLB in Tampa-2 base defenses. After a season in which he managed only 72 solo tackles, he's got nowhere to go but up in the year-end rankings. Expect both safeties to have above-average value, as well as promising defensive end Cliff Avril.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are yet another team jumping on the ever-lengthening list of those planning to use the 3-4 as a base defense. Unlike the Broncos, who will use a lot of 1-gap 3-4 and four man nickel fronts, and the Chiefs, who may trend toward the 4-3/3-4 hybrid scheme that their new coordinator Clancy Pendergast used in Arizona, the Packers should be a true 3-4 base defense. In theory, new defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who helped Dick LeBeau develop the zone blitz, will install a playbook that most resembles that of the Pittsburgh Steelers. If successful, there should be plenty of box score value to go around in Green Bay. Both inside linebackers generally have value in this scheme, and that should be the case here, as both Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk are likely to remain on the field every down. Early in OTAs, it appeared that Hawk would play in the generally more favorable WILB spot, but there were reports in late May that he could end up on the strong side, with Barnett playing on the weak side. Given the struggles that Hawk has had shedding blocks thus far in his NFL career, that could mean that Barnett is a much safer bet for consistency in the tackle column. The player to watch before making your final call on the Packer ILBs may actually be rookie first round draft pick and presumptive starting nose tackle B.J. Raji. If Raji can consistently draw double teams, that would be good news for whomever lands at WILB. Aaron Kampman's value will be entirely dependent (in most leagues) on whether he remains classified as a DL. He'll have a hard time putting up better stats at OLB than he did at DE, making him a worthwhile pick if designated as a LB in big play scoring leagues only. Atari Bigby may also have better than expected value as a roaming in the box safety, especially if the two ILBs struggle to make the transition to the 3-4.
From The Gut - Early Offseason Edition
It doesn't appear that the IDP world will be sleeping on Atlanta MLB Curtis Lofton this summer (FBG consensus #16 LB in May). Relatively speaking, that's a strong vote of confidence for a guy who finished well outside the top 40 in 2008. But I don't think it's strong enough. On the surface, Lofton's 67 solo tackles aren't at all impressive. When you consider that those 67 solos came entirely out of Atlanta's base defensive snaps and that Lofton may have missed as many as 40 percent of his team's snaps while his team was in a nickel subpackage, that number should be flashing in 24pt neon font and accompanied by deafening klaxons and sirens. While I won't go so far as to argue that Lofton is a lock to hit 122 solos (which is what his 2008 numbers project to had he played 100 percent of his team's snaps), it's absolutely not a stretch to think that Lofton can add 30-40 solos as a full-time player. Leon Williams, in his nickel platoon role with Cleveland, had 30 solos in 14 games last season and an even better per game average as a nickel backer in 2007. I feel very comfortable projecting Lofton to 95+ solos and an easy LB1 finish this year.
D.J. Williams, Nick Barnett, Zach Thomas. Those are the most recent three middle linebackers who have played under Jim Bates or a direct protégé of Bates. All three were easily LB1 talents in a scheme that funnels tackles to the MLB. Williams and Barnett finished with big tackle numbers despite major concerns about their instincts or ability to shed blocks. Tampa Bay hired Bates as their defensive coordinator this offseason. Barrett Ruud is the total package at MLB. It might seem crazy to upgrade Ruud after a 102 solo tackle season. But the turnover at OLB, Ruud's talent and an extremely favorable scheme could be the perfect storm. It won't surprise me to see Ruud put up 120 solo tackles this season and finish as the #1 overall IDP.
The most pressing question among this season's potential stud defensive backs is how to project Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell, both of whom signed big contracts to play in Miami. Both are around the ball too much to expect huge drops in production, but it's nearly certain that neither can reach the lofty numbers they had in 2008 while the other is there to vulture tackles. But I wouldn't write off Bell as a top five option yet. He'll still be the strong safety and the Dolphins did nothing to improve the ILB group they had a year ago. Last season's free safety, Renaldo Hill, had 62 solos himself and, while not as dynamic, is a lot like Wilson. And Bell could make 20 percent fewer solo tackles than last year and still finish with 80 solos, a number that would put him near the top of the tackle rankings in most seasons.
I've missed the boat on O.J. Atogwe repeatedly, arguing that his year-end rankings were propped up by his big play numbers, which are generally unsustainable. Atogwe's tackle numbers last season may have been buoyed by above-average tackle opportunity and a struggling linebacker corps, but it would have been all buy impossible to ignore his three year stretch of big play consistency this year. And that was before Steve Spagnuolo was named head coach. Free safeties from the playbook Spagnuolo uses in recent seasons include Brian Dawkins and Gibril Wilson. The Rams franchised Atogwe and clearly see him in a similar mold. He looks like a guy poised to challenge for the top overall defensive back ranking. In a related argument, I'm a big fan of Kenny Phillips' potential this year as well.
My argument that Zach Thomas could surprise as an every-down linebacker in the favorable WILB position in Dallas last year looks pretty silly a year later. But I'm making the same argument in favor of Keith Brooking this year. Brooking had success in a similar role for Wade Phillips earlier in his career and will be a threat to take some nickel snaps from Bradie James this fall. He's the best WILB Wade Phillips has had since Donnie Edwards ran up big numbers in San Diego. Brooking won't be that good, but he's got sneaky upside this year. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, I'm stubborn.
Others I'm probably higher on than others include Eric Barton, Justin Durant and Kevin Burnett. And I fully expect E.J. Henderson to return to 2007 form. Players I'm likely to be lower on than others include Aaron Curry and Michael Boley. And I'd be leery of drafting D'Qwell Jackson as your LB1. His numbers were propped up by a huge number of assisted tackles last year and he was again nearly out-tackled by the marginal LILB platoon of Andra Davis and Leon Williams.
Review of 2008 Tackle Opportunity
In a RTD column midway through the 2007 season, we introduced the tackle opportunity metric as a way to highlight players (mostly linebackers) that may be undervalued or overvalued based on how many tackle chances their team was seeing on a weekly basis. Without getting into the long technical discussions we have in past columns, tackle opportunity is calculated as rush attempts + pass completions + sacks, and has proven useful in three ways. First, when considered in context, it's useful to consider after the first few games of the season as a way to evaluate players who have significantly under- or over-performed expectations. Second, it's a great way to tease out great matchups and make close lineup decisions. Third, the year end team tackle opportunity numbers - again used in context - can help point out players who might improve or decline the following season. Here are some potential hidden nuggets to be found from last season's numbers.
The Baltimore Ravens finished 2008 with only 42.25 tackle opportunities per game. That's the second lowest figure in the past six seasons and over seven tackle opportunities per game less than the six season historical mean. The Ravens are likely to remain a very good defense, but that number isn't sustainable. Setting aside their 44.13 finish in 2007, the vaunted Raven defense has finished much closer to league averages in every other season prior to 2008. That's very good news for veteran ILB Ray Lewis, whose 84 solo tackles look much more impressive in the context of his well below-average opportunity. He looks like a very good bet to rebound in 2009.
Another veteran backer, London Fletcher, was also bitten by poor opportunity last season. His Washington defense finished 31st in the league with only 44.50 opportunities per game. The presence of stud defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and rumors of a more downhill philosophy from Greg Blache this season could help Fletcher get back over the 100 solo tackle mark.
The tackle opportunity lists aren't giving up any obvious names that may be overvalued in 2009. The defenses that provided the most tackle opportunity to their players last season - the Lions and Chiefs - are likely to do so again. The three best candidates to see a decline in opportunity this season are likely to be the Seahawks (3rd-most in 2008), Bears (4th-most) and Chargers (5th-most). Among those, it's hard to see Lofa Tatupu's relatively poor solo tackle numbers to drop much in Jim Mora's more aggressive scheme. The same argument should apply to Chicago's Brian Urlacher. The players most at risk of decline could be San Diego's Stephen Cooper and Eric Weddle. Cooper could have more competition for tackles if Kevin Burnett fulfills his long-awaited every-down promise. Weddle may also be affected by an effective Burnett, but a likely regression in the very high pass completion vs rush attempt split in San Diego's 2008 tackle opportunity (league high 52 percent of tackle opportunity on pass completions Vs league average of 44 percent) may also hurt Weddle's tackle numbers.
If you're new to the IDP coverage at Footballguys.com (especially if you're reading from our 2009 CD), this article is just a fraction of what our IDP team does every year. At least nine different staffers provide rankings and content throughout the summer months and weekly during the NFL season. We regularly produce free IDP-centered podcasts for FBG's official podcast, The Audible. Our free IDP-only message board has the largest, most knowledgeable and most active group of posters on the internet and features a subforum for advice requests. Make sure you check out the forum, podcasts and website for the most up-to-date news and analysis. CD readers will also want to check out John Norton's Breaking Down Defenses or my own Guide to NFL Defense for an even deeper look at our IDP coverage.
Comments, suggestions and questions are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.
