Reading the Defense - Week 1

  Updated 9/9 by Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

An RTD Welcome

Welcome back to the fourth season of the Reading the Defense column at FBG. If you're new to the column, our focus is on NFL defense. Much of our content will skew toward the prospects of defensive players for those in IDP leagues, but most of the discussion will come from a general examination of defensive football. Hopefully, even those who aren't in IDP leagues will find plenty of interest here each week in our never-ending quest to show that defensive football is as interesting and exciting as the offensive side of the ball.

Over the course of the season, this column will include a healthy mix of some unique statistical metrics we've developed over the past three seasons. We'll again be using the league's unofficial defensive statistics to determine which teams are generating more tackle opportunity for themselves than others and how you can leverage that opportunity for IDP leagues. We'll be tracking which teams allow and generate the most pressure on opposing quarterbacks to tease out the strongest pass rushing matchups. We'll even do some truly geeky stuff like tease out which defenders are most active on a percentage basis and which teams provide the best opportunity to the cornerbacks through passes defensed trackers and run-pass ratios. We'll be interpreting all of our metrics with a critical eye and some not-so-geeky gut feel. As we did last season, we'll have at least one headline section each week devoted to these metrics and their interpretation.

We'll also do some in-depth analysis of the league's defensive schemes. With the ever-changing, yet cyclical nature of the NFL, we'll try to stay ahead of the defensive trends as they emerge. This season, we're expecting to track how the league's trend toward multiple front schemes affects the production of defensive ends and add still more data to the historical analysis of the league inside linebackers over the past two decades. We'll be examining the trend toward interchangeable safeties and consider whether the stud safety can truly be considered an endangered species. With those issues in mind, we'll be trying out a new scheme-specific section to the column this year, with a mixed bag of historical scheme analysis, playbook diagrams and game charting data for teams that change schemes frequently.

The second half of the column will focus on reviewing the prior week's news and previewing and analyzing the week ahead in our Stunts section. We'll have comments on some of the previous week's most vexing and surprising stat lines and comments on watch list players for redraft and dynasty IDP leagues. And we're hoping to again have a section highlighting defenders who also return punts and kicks for those of you in IDP leagues that award points for return yards.

In short, there should be something for everyone who loves defensive football. As always, RTD welcomes questions and suggestions for things to cover each week and greatly appreciates comments and feedback on what we're doing.

That should give you an indication of what to expect this year. It's a short week, so we'll keep our first in-season column of 2009 (relatively) brief.

What Is A Multiple Front Defense Anyway?

The term "multiple front" isn't a new way to define an NFL defense. Teams have been changing up front seven alignments for decades. Many point to the Orange Crush defense of Joe Collier and the Denver Broncos in the 1970s as the first deep playbook, multiple front scheme. Collier's playbook, like that of Bill Belichick (who notes Collier as one of his early influences), was said to have as many as 50 different potential alignments. Those playbooks had 4-3 fronts, 3-4 fronts with both 1-gap and 2-gap concepts, and multiple nickel looks. Built on versatile personnel, Collier's defense was meant to confuse offense and generate more pressure than most contemporary schemes did. During the 80s and 90s, the league went through cycles of 3-4 and 4-3 fronts, but it wasn't until Belichick successfully revived some of Collier's ideas earlier this decade that the multiple front playbook began gaining a true foothold in the league.

Today's multiple front schemes often include even more alignments. More versatile and athletic personnel and subpackage specialists are limiting what defensive coordinators can do by imagination only. The same variable 4-3 and 3-4 looks predominate, but contemporary defenses are throwing additional wrinkles into the mix. The 46 front, new nickel looks with anywhere from one to five down linemen, multiple safety nickel packages and even a spare 52 or 44 alignment has popped up in recent seasons. Multiple front, indeed.

This season, expect to see the Giants run a 5-1-5 defense at times. The Jaguars might often run variations on a 1-gap 3-4. Some Bronco observers are calling the new Denver 3-4 a 52 front. A number of teams have joined the Steelers in running a front with a single down lineman near the offensive center and a free-flowing mix of other defenders elsewhere in the box. Most interestingly, however, is what may be a burgeoning trend back toward the 46 front as a change-of-pace look.

The Bear 46 look all but fallen out of favor since the late 1990s after offensive coordinators adjusted to its particular brand of pressure, with only Rex Ryan using it sparingly in the mid-00s with Baltimore. For a more detailed historical discussion and breakdown of Buddy Ryan and the Bear front, check out the 46 section in the Guide to NFL Defenses here. Here's a short excerpt for our purposes, including a diagram of one common 46 alignment.

Points of interest:

1. The 46 isn't a 4-6 front. Ryan apparently was incapable of calling any of his players by name. He'd give them nicknames or just call them by their number. The 46 defense was named for Doug Plank, the Bear SS and jersey number 46. The 46 is an eight man front with six men on the line.


2. Most think of the 46 as an exceptional pass rushing scheme. And it was. But the scheme was just as devastating against the run. Ryan put three monster linemen opposite the three interior offensive linemen. One nose tackle aligned head up on the center, and two very solid end/tackle players were aligned in a 3-technique opposite both guards. If the line didn't make the play, they effectively occupied enough blockers to keep both second line defenders (including HOF MLB Mike Singletary) free to hit whatever came through. It was all but impossible to run against the personnel the Bears had in the mid-1980s. Teams were forced to throw and throw often.


3. When they threw, they had to deal with pressure from anywhere and everywhere. While Ryan would sometimes choose to fall back in coverage from the 46, he usually brought the house. Both OLBs (Wilbur Marshall and Otis Wilson) were stud pass rushers and Richard Dent was aligned wide to crash down the weak side. Add in the interior pass rush of Steve McMichael and Dan Hampton, who flanked Refrigerator Perry, and there wasn't a weak link anywhere on the six man front.


4. The strong safety came down in the box and played like a linebacker. Ryan frequently mixed up his 46 fronts by switching one OLB and the SS interchangeably.

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys began using the 46 front as a subpackage after Wade Phillips took over playcalling duties. Initially seen as a way to help a bleeding run defense, Phillips began using it more and more often during the second half of the season. His changeup moved Bradie James outside as an all-around run stuffing and blitzing force with impressive effect. James' production could continue through 2009, especially if Bobby Carpenter plays well enough to allow James to slide outside on nickel downs.

This preseason, we've seen two teams work with a 46 front. The Oakland Raiders aligned in something very much like a 46 in their third preseason game, while the Texans are internally considering using the 46 frequently on base defensive downs. The Houston version of the 46, as shown in an image in Lance Zierlein's "A View from the Sideline" newsletter, is particularly interesting. The Texans aligned in a six man front, but had Mario Williams aligned in a three point stance outside the TE on the strong side covering Zac Diles at SLB in a two point stance. Xavier Adibi was in a two point stance at the weak side DE spot. Zierlein believes that the Texans are using the 46 to make it difficult for zone blocking teams to open holes between the tackles. If the team can defend the pass when offenses inevitably begin checking out of run plays to short passes, it's a strategy that could work to great effect. DeMeco Ryans could have a huge season behind a wall of defensive linemen allowing him free rein to flow from sideline to sideline making plays.

We'll be keeping an eye on the Cowboys, Texans and Raiders early, along with other teams like the Jags, Bengals, Jets that might frequently stray from what their base defense is expected to be.

Stunts

Kirk Morrison has finally secured the MLB job over OLB Ricky Brown. The dislocated elbow Morrison suffered during the preseason may limit his tackling ability, but he'll be lining up in the productive every-down middle linebacker role in Week 1. Dynasty league owners should be operating under the assumption that Morrison will not be the Raider MLB in 2010, but it's safe to expect that Morrison will be a solid LB2+ option again this year.

We had Patriot DE Richard Seymour on our radar during camp as a potential upside play after seeing the Patriots working in a 4-3 front frequently during their preseason games. With his trade to Oakland, Seymour will now definitely see more 4-3 snaps, as the Raiders are planning to use him at RDE on base defensive downs and move him inside to a three-technique role in the nickel. Seymour has DL2 potential now and could also help Greg Ellis and Tommy Kelly to approach the upper limits of their statistical expectation. The biggest change in expected value could go to New England's Jarvis Green, who will see many more snaps in Seymour's absence. Green has always been productive as a 4-3 end and would be a solid situational play if Belichick follows through on using more 4-3 fronts this year.

There have been rumblings in Kansas City about Bernard Pollard's inconsistent tackling and coverage skills for three years. Beat writers often noted the possibility that Pollard would be rotated out of the lineup or potentially benched. This offseason, all indications seemed to be that DaJuan Morgan hadn't impressed and that veteran Mike Brown wasn't pushing for the SS job in practice, leaving Pollard safe for another season. Despite the relative quiet, Pollard was not only taken out of the starting lineup, he was cut from the team. Brown, a veteran and once solid all-around talent, is currently slated to take the SS job, but it'll be a major surprise if he remains healthy for any stretch. Expect to see DaJuan Morgan playing SS at some point this season. Pollard's release should also be good news for the prospects of FS Jarrad Page and ILBs Derrick Johnson (ignore head coach Todd Haley's depth chart games) and Corey Mays.

Those hoping to squeeze some value from Xavier Adibi early this season before Brian Cushing established himself in an every-down role were dealt a blow when the Texans named Zac Diles the starting WLB after the final preseason game. With Brian Cushing expected to return from his knee injury, Adibi falls back into a reserve role and can be safely cut in all leagues. Diles may have a tough time equaling his impressive 2008 early season pace with a healthy and motivated DeMeco Ryans in the middle and Cushing likely to work into the nickel packages soon.

It appears that Joe Mays flopped in his bid to play MLB in Philadelphia this season while Stewart Bradley recovers from his ACL tear. Omar Gaither hasn't been healthy enough to take many preseason snaps, but was taking first team reps this week and should be an every-down player by default. This was likely Mays' best opportunity to impress the coaches and he's unlikely to regain any value unless Gaither can't shake the injury issues that plagued him this preseason.

The Bears are listing Trumaine McBride and Nathan Vasher as their starting quarterbacks this week, with Charles Tillman not yet expected to be available. Second year player Zack Bowman says he's ready to play, however, and should see plenty of time against Green Bay's three wide receiver attack. If he holds up well, don't be shocked to see the Bears elevate him to the starting lineup in Week 2. If you're in a pinch at corner, consider him as a spot starter with some additional 09 upside.

Another corner worth considering is Jacksonville rookie Derek Cox, who looks to start alongside Rashean Mathis after veteran Brian Russell was cut last week. He deserves a long look under the "rookie corner rule." He's physical enough to put together strong solo tackle numbers but may not provide much in the big play and coverage columns.

There wasn't much question that the Colts would leave Clint Session in the every-down WLB role midway through the preseason, but he's even more entrenched there now with the news that Tyjuan Hagler has replaced Phillip Wheeler at SLB. That likely removes any possibility that the Colts will put Freddie Keiaho back at WLB and move Session to SLB in a return to their 2008 lineup. It's also all but the final nail in the coffin of Wheeler's value as a potential long-term option in Indianapolis.

The Bengals quietly elevated Rey Maualuga to the starting SLB job after the final preseason game. Maualuga will likely be inconsistent on the strong side and isn't likely to play in nickel packages this year. Consider him more likely to follow the career path of D.J. Williams (who began his career at SLB before moving inside) than Brian Urlacher (who lasted only two games at SLB before the Bears kicked him to MLB). Savvy owners should try to pry him from his current owner if he starts slowly and stash him for a future payday.

Returner-Defender Guys

Entering the season, Leodis McKelvin, Josh Wilson and Danieal Manning appear to be the elite of the two-way returner-defenders. McKelvin is slated to return kickoffs for Buffalo and moves into a starting role with Jabari Greer now in New Orleans. Wilson has kickoff returner duty in Seattle (though Deion Branch may also be in the mix) and will start for the injured Marcus Trufant (on PUP) for at least the first six weeks of the season. Manning has been out with injury for most of the preseason, but looks likely to move back into a starting FS in Chicago and return kickoffs for Chicago. Jim Leonhard may join the above group if he returns punts in New York. Leon Washington seems to be in line for kickoff return duty only, but Dwight Lowery could be used instead of Leonhard. Elsewhere around the league, Terence Newman and Ellis Hobbs look like potential promising options. Newman may return some punts in Dallas and Hobbs will get at least nickel duty in Philadelphia while returning kickoffs. Others to watch for early in the season include Alphonso Smith, who may earn more defensive playing time as the season progresses for Denver, Will Blackmon, who would be a solid option if the Packers have an injury to one of their top three corners and Phillip Buchanon, who got a look as a punt returner in Detroit earlier in the preseason. Also keep an eye on the deep depth charts in Jacksonville, where Brian Witherspoon will have dual kickoff and punt return duty, and Baltimore, where Chris Carr draws returner duty.

Remember to check out our weekly all-IDP podcast on the Audible on Thursdays and be sure to stop by the IDP Forum every Sunday morning for all the latest and most accurate IDP news, analysis and inactive players. Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to bramel@footballguys.com.

Best of luck in Week 1.