IDP Matchups - Week 1
Updated 9/10 by Jene Bramel and Larry Thomas, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet, that will be generated by Larry Thomas. That spreadsheet will contain a number of weekly and weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include two large tables of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly lineup and waiver wire decisions.
Before we get to the hard data and matchup analysis, a quick explanation of the metrics we're using will probably be helpful. This column will be broken up into two primary sections - pass rushing matchups to exploit/avoid and tackle matchups to exploit/avoid. Each text section is followed by a table listing the relevant statistics and metrics driving our matchup decisions.
The pass rushing matchup table will include weekly averages of sacks, adjusted averages of sacks and quarterback hits and pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Pressure Applied, a metric we're introducing to show how often a team defense is generating pressure on the opposing quarterback. We'll be calculating Pressure Applied by dividing each team defense's sacks and quarterback hits by its total pass attempts faced. The same set of data will be provided and Pressure Allowed calculated for each team offense, to show which offenses are allowing pressure on their quarterback most often.
The tackle matchup table will include weekly averages of both rush and pass attempts faced, total offensive snaps faced and the percentage of rush vs pass attempts faced. It will also have a column titled Tackle Opportunity, a metric we introduced in mid-2007 to show how many plays a defense faced that could have ended in a solo tackle. We'll be calculating each team's Tackle Opportunity by adding all rush attempts, pass completions and sacks - the three plays that can end in a solo tackle outside of special teams and turnover plays. The same set of data will be provided and Tackle Opportunity calculated for each team's offense, to show which offenses are allowing the most tackle opportunity to opposing defenses.
We'll be highlighting the Pressure Applied/Allowed and Tackle Opportunity metrics with color codes showing the best and worst pass rush and tackle matchups. Expect to see lots of "good" and "bad" matchups early, as a relatively low sample size will show a lot of teams outside the historical standard deviations we'll be using to focus on the key matchups. While sample size will be a confounding issue during the early weeks, we'll still make every effort to show where the data looks meaningful. Without getting into a long discussion of statistics, we recognize that these metrics and tables will not be as predictive and reliable early in the season. We also acknowledge the noise within a set of unofficial statistics like solo tackles and quarterback hits. As the season progresses and the standard deviations of the data fall in line with prior seasonal averages, we expect that the data tables will be increasingly more reliable and useful.
Okay, enough of the disclaimers, let's look at our highlighted matchups for Week 1. After the first week of games, we'll be including data from the Matchup Analyzer to allow you to check any of the week's pass rush or tackle matchups.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Exploit
New England front seven at Buffalo
The Bills will be starting four new offensive linemen this week on the road against one of the most prolific defenses of the past decade. Expect the Patriots to get a large number of high leverage pass rush opportunities. Jarvis Green, Adalius Thomas and Pierre Woods look like solid situational starts this week in big play leagues. Ty Warren could also get off to a quick start to 2009.
Minnesota front seven at Cleveland
The Cleveland offensive line was outmatched on most snaps this preseason. Already struggling to run the ball, the Browns have little chance of rebounding in Week 1 against a perennially stout Viking rush defense that will have both Kevin Williams and Pat Williams available at defensive tackle. Expect Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and E.J. Henderson to all get multiple chances to bring down Brady Quinn. Ray Edwards also makes for a good spot start this week.
Tennessee front four at Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh offensive line struggled to protect Ben Roethlisberger last season, a trend that looks likely to continue after the team made no major changes to its line this offseason. The Titans may have lost anchor defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, but still have a host of talented pass rushers. Kyle Vanden Bosch may be the best bet to get to Roethlisberger, but promising youngsters like William Hayes and Jason Jones, alongside Tony Brown may prove to be solid spot starts if you're in a deep league.
New York Giant front seven vs Washington
Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Mathias Kiwanuka, Clint Sintim, Michael Boley and a long list of solid defensive tackles. We might be watching a Yankee-like front seven this year, with production coming from all angles and every spot in the front seven. The Redskins may not be as weak in pass protection as they were a year ago, but they'll have their hands full with this group on the road. Expect the Giant stud defensive ends to play well. Kiwanuka will be a strong situational play in deeper leagues.
Pass Rushing Matchups to Avoid
Cincinnati front seven vs Denver
The Broncos were the stingiest team in the league in allowing quarterback pressures last season, allowing a quarterback hit on less than 4% of their offensive snaps. The Denver offense is in transition this year, but the line remains strong enough to keep a mediocre Cincinnati pass rush unit from racking up pressures. Robert Geathers, Antwan Odom and Michael Johnson may eventually prove useful fantasy options in 2009, but this isn't the week to start the bandwagon.
Jacksonville front four at Indianapolis
The Colts, with a major assist from Peyton Manning, have been one of the worst matchups in the league for opposing pass rushers in recent years. While there has been turnover and inconsistency at the LT position, it's tough to project more than a spare sack for the Jaguar defense this week. If you must rely on a Jaguar defensive lineman this week, Derrick Harvey has a chance to take advantage of the LT issue. Still, it's probably best to look elsewhere for production if you've got the option.
Oakland front four vs San Diego
The Oakland line could be much improved this year with the additions of veterans Richard Seymour and Greg Ellis and promising situational talent Trevor Scott. However, the Raider defense continues to struggle against the run and Seymour looks to be distracted at best after the late preseason trade. Already a 9.5 point underdog to a potent all-around Charger offense, the transitioning Raider defense isn't likely to get many pass rush chances against a San Diego line that was one of the best in the league at protecting its quarterback last season. Consider Ellis and Seymour only if you're out of other viable options.
Tackle Matchups to Exploit
Kansas City defenders at Baltimore
Kansas City is a mess. The team continues to play petty games during the preseason with their depth charts and cut two projected defensive starters just days before the season was to begin. That makes projecting the team's defenders difficult, but matchup against Baltimore is too good to ignore. The Ravens ran the ball more than any other team in 2008 and provided the second best tackle opportunity in the league. That's not likely to change this season. The Kansas City defense could face 60 or more offensive snaps from scrimmage and 35 or more rush attempts. It remains unclear whether Derrick Johnson's current depth chart notation as a reserve is legitimate, but the upside here is too high to pass. Corey Mays, Jarrad Page and Brandon Flowers all should be productive this weekend. Brandon Carr and Mike Brown may also put up above-average numbers.
Washington defenders at New York Giants
The Giants slipped back toward the middle of the back during the second half of 2008, going from a prime tackle matchup to just a good one. The Giant defense and potential inconsistencies in the passing offense should push this team back toward the top of the league in tackle opportunity provided this year. Expect London Fletcher, Chris Horton and Rocky McIntosh to have solid weeks to start the season.
Miami defenders at Atlanta
The Atlanta offense provided top three tackle opportunity last year and should continue to be an above-average matchup for opposing defenders this season. Channing Crowder and Yeremiah Bell should be solid starts this week, with Gibril Wilson and Sean Smith having a good shot at above-average tackle numbers as well.
Oakland defenders vs San Diego
With LaDainian Tomlinson looking strong and Antonio Gates starting the season healthy, the Charger offense may join the Ravens, Giants, Falcons as one of the more consistently good tackle matchups in the league. This week, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard look like very strong plays, with safety Tyvon Branch a good bet to explode onto the IDP scene with a big week.
Tackle Matchups to Avoid
Baltimore defenders vs Kansas City
The Raven defense afforded itself the worst tackle opportunity in the league last year and the second worst in the six years of data we have. Baltimore may have lost Bart Scott, but gets Kelly Gregg back healthy in front of a motivated Ray Lewis. It's possible that the Ravens could see less than 40 tackle opportunities this week. Ray Lewis is tough to bench given his surrounding cast, but this isn't the week to risk a spot start on Tavares Gooden or Dawan Landry if you've got other options.
Minnesota defenders at Cleveland
The Cleveland rushing offense is sure to struggle against the strong Minnesota front seven. Expect a lot of short drives and relatively few tackle chances for the Viking defenders. E.J. Henderson and Antoine Winfield remain startable fantasy options, especially given their big play upside, but consider sitting Chad Greenway and Tyrell Johnson if you have other reasonable options.
We welcome all suggestions and feedback to bramel@footballguys.com