From the Gut - IDP Version

  Posted 8/10 by Jene Bramel - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

One of my favorite FBG features is the series of From the Gut articles penned by David Dodds (and now Sigmund Bloom as well) every year, which step outside the cold feel of rigid projections and take an out-on-the-limb and off-the-cuff look at the prospects of some offensive prospects. As I did last season, I'm running with David's concept and putting myself on the line on the defensive side of the ball.

If you missed it, the Reading the Defense Offseason Report included a very early group of From The Gut thoughts. You can check out the full flavor of those thoughts here, and I'm still standing behind most of the arguments made back in May. Briefly:

• I'm still very high on Curtis Lofton and think he has clear LB1 potential in his new every-down role. Seems most of the IDP world feels the same; I've seen Lofton drafted among the top twelve linebackers in many late July and early August redrafts.


• I've yet to move Barrett Ruud from his lofty perch atop my linebacker rankings. He's been my top IDP since April and should top 100 solo tackles without breaking a sweat, especially with Angelo Crowell already struggling to stay healthy in camp and Jermaine Phillips learning a new position and new scheme.


• There are conflicting reports from Dolphins camp on how Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell are being used, but I still feel that there are enough tackles to support DB1 value for one, if not both, and that Bell has the higher upside.


• I remain very high on E.J. Henderson and O.J. Atogwe, and still feel you should temper expectations on D'Qwell Jackson. However, I've changed course a bit on Keith Brooking, who seems likely to give way to Bobby Carpenter in the nickel, and Kevin Burnett, who is behind Tim Dobbins in the fight to play alongside Stephen Cooper in the base defense in San Diego.

Much has happened during May and June OTAs, however, and the Twitter updates from camp are coming fast and furious. Time to let fly with a much deeper set of takes from the gut.

Bloom and I have written extended thoughts on this in a series of strategy articles taking a deeper look into our rank lists, but the IDP tiers are shaping up to be very thin on top at DL, very deep throughout the LB2 and LB3 tiers and wide open at the DB position. It's always best to stay flexible during the draft and strategy is always scoring and lineup dependent, but it's hard not to think this is the year to grab at least one stud defensive end early and grab value at the other positions as the draft progresses.

All signs point to a big rebound season for Ray Lewis. He's got two stud defensive tackles in front of him again, an unproven group of linebackers surrounding him, a secondary not known to rack up tackles in run support and it's extremely unlikely that the defense will give itself such poor tackle opportunity again this year (2nd worst team tackle opportunity in the six years I've tracked the stat). I think 90 solo tackles are within easy reach for him this season, and won't at all be surprised to see him finish as a LB1 if he stays healthy all year.

I've tried to temper expectations on Derrick Johnson many times in recent seasons. I've argued that he wasn't dynamic enough as an all-around player to continue his hot start at SLB a couple seasons ago and wondered openly how he'd fare at ROLB last year. This year, I'm driving the Johnson bandwagon after the news broke during OTAs that the Chiefs were planning to use Zach Thomas as the plugging SILB and Johnson WILB in Clancy Pendergast's hybrid 3-4. I'm not saying Johnson mirrors the production that Karlos Dansby had in that role, but the lack of any real competition for tackles in what looks to be a very target rich environment gives Johnson LB2 value at a LB3/4 price.

I think my low-teens ranking of Justin Durant is awfully conservative, even in such a deep tier of LB2 potentials. He's been confirmed as the MLB and we've seen the pedestrian numbers Daryl Smith and Clint Ingram have put up as OLBs. None of the secondary potentials are consistent run support options. Durant is at the top of the list of LB2s with 95+ solo tackle upside.

I've dropped Osi Umenyiora down my draft board a few slots as camp starts. With the long list of potential defensive line options, I think it's very possible that the Giants hold Umenyiora back on base defensive downs often, especially early in the season, and keep him fresh for the higher leverage nickel snaps. If that happens, Umenyiora may only see 60-70% of the team's defensive snaps and his tackle numbers (and DL1 upside) may pay the price.

I don't know who it'll be, but the Detroit SS is going to have nice upside this year. For now, it appears that Anthony Henry will stay at corner and Daniel Bullocks will hold onto the job. Bullocks has been very productive in the line scores in between injuries and would be again as the SS this year. Don't hesitate to jump on whomever takes this job in camp.

Long time IDP owners may remember the frustration of seeing the Chicago Bears stick Brian Urlacher at SLB early in his rookie season. It didn't take long - two games in fact - for the coaching staff to see what they had in Urlacher and make him the focus of their defense at MLB. Don't be shocked to see the same thing happen with Rey Maualuga in Cincinnati. Early reports have him progressing well in camp and playing better in pass coverage than advertised. Even the hapless Bengals may not be able to hold off moving Maualuga to the middle for long. Though he's unlikely to play in nickel packages, Maualuga could be a sneaky matchup play by midseason.

I like Sedrick Ellis to break out this year. Much of the offseason DT hype went to guys like Jason Jones and Brandon Mebane (both fine options in their own right), while the news that Ellis will play a lot of three-technique snaps got swept under the bleachers. Take a second look at Ellis' 2008 numbers. They weren't disappointing and they came despite a nagging knee injury. A more aggressive front seven philosophy, a role likely to be more productive and a healthy set of legs under him makes Ellis a fine roster as deep DL depth and a very attractive target as a late DT1.

At his current price, Clint Session is a slam dunk easy flyer as a depth LB. There remains a small chance that Freddy Keiaho will outplay Phillip Wheeler to start, which could push Session back to the strong side, but the team is clearly high on Session and with good reason. Session was among the league leaders in tackles for loss, an impressive achievement for a SLB and even more impressive in a read-and-react Cover-2 defense. He's going outside the top 30 linebackers right now and will be a steal if he sticks at WLB and holds an every-down role.

I think Andre Carter has a rebound season this year. He may be pushing the wrong side of 30, but he'll benefit from the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo. He's also recovered from a foot injury that hampered his explosiveness and kept him from turning what was a top ten number of quarterback hits into sacks. Add in the possibility that Greg Blache may be loosening up his passive defensive line schemes and Carter could get back to his late 2006-2007 form.

Another player I like to rebound is Marcus Trufant. We know Trufant can stop the run and has been a big play performer in the past in coverage. He gets the benefit of a new scheme with plenty of Cover-2 coverage calls and a veteran presence in Ken Lucas to keep teams from avoiding his side of the field. Corners are often inconsistent, but the signs are in Trufant's favor this year.

As noted above, I've cooled on the prospects of Keith Brooking since May. But the news that Brooking likely won't play in the nickel wasn't the only nickel news of note in OTAs. It seems that Brooking's ILBmate, Bradie James, is firmly entrenched as a nickel backer. James didn't earn a full time role until late last season and it coincided with a run of top matchups as James made himself into a top IDP option over the last few games of 2008. James might be had as a LB3 right now, but has all kinds of upside, particularly in big play systems.

See something you disagree with? Send me an e-mail at bramel@footballguys.com. I'll continue to update my training camp blog thread in the Forum with the latest IDP news and notes throughout August and the IDP crew will be back on the Audible frequently during camp season as we ramp up to our weekly show. Best of luck during your fantasy drafts this month.