Mission Impossible! - IDP

Posted 8/31 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Well, maybe it is not impossible, but you get the point. Every season there are players who are very tough to rank for a multitude of reasons, such as durability, questionable performance, a hot shot young player behind them, or any number of other reasons. Sometimes I wish I could just rank the players who seem to fit nicely into a slot, but it does not work that way. I am going to list some of the players who were toughest for me to rank, along with the reasons.

Defensive Ends

Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers: What a shock…the most inconsistent top-ten player at any position is on my list. Peppers is a superior talent and has some big games every year, but he also is prone to more clunkers than any other top lineman. Over the last six years, Peppers has been a top five DL every other year and a DL2 or lower the rest of the time. The Panthers franchised him and he is not happy about that and my concern is that could leave him unmotivated at times. He is annually the toughest IDP to project. Selecting Peppers is a matter of preference. If you need consistency, look elsewhere. If you can handle the low points in exchange for some monster games, then Peppers is right up your alley. I literally could rank Peppers anywhere from first to 20th and not be wrong.

Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks: Kerney is coming off an injury plagued 2008 season and is 33 years old. When you combine injury issues with his age, you raise giant red flags. On the other hand, Kerney is an elite DE when healthy, one who is capable of top-10 numbers. It's hard for me to rank him higher than a low DL2, but he could be a solid value play if you don't mind the risks. A player with Kerney's situation is one I may draft if I see value falling in the draft at other positions, especially considering how tough it is to find elite 4-3 DEs.

Andre Carter, Washington Redskins: Carter is almost as tough to rank as Peppers this year. He has elite talent, a great situation, and has put up DL1 numbers in the past. But there are plenty of negatives regarding Carter. First, he only had 24 solos and four sacks despite playing in all 16 games. I can understand players having off years, but he should be able to get those numbers in his sleep. It is tough to figure out why his numbers fell off so bad, but the addition of Albert Haynesworth and a more aggressive scheme should help. Carter literally could finish as a DL1 and just as easily wind up with the DL4 group. Right now, I consider him a low end DL2 with a high ceiling and low floor.

Dewayne White, Detroit Lions: White has been productive in his two seasons in Detroit, but he has missed several games due to injury. The Lions do not have much talent at DE, but White is still not guaranteed a starting job. It is difficult to predict what White's role will be right now, but usually, talent finds its way onto the field. The weakness in White's game is run defense and that could be the determining factor in whether he starts. The big red flag is the fact that career backup Jason Hunter has been starting. My gut says White will either start or play enough to justify a low end DL2 ranking, but that does come with some risks.

Linebackers

DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans: Ryans had a monster rookie year in 2006, finishing with 126 solos, but those numbers have steadily declined in the last two years. Ryans has battled nagging injuries and has not been the same player he was as a rookie. But even when healthy, Ryans has not been the dominant force he was in 2006. I still think Ryans will wind up being a mid level LB1, but when I think back a couple of years ago, I thought Ryans was going to be a dominant player year in and year out. The change from surefire stud to one with questions makes Ryans difficult to rank.

Stephen Cooper, San Diego Chargers: Despite missing four games last year, Cooper racked up 72 solos and likely would have been in the mid 90s had he played a full 16-game schedule. Prior to last year, Cooper had 74 solos in 2007, but had never been a fantasy factor before that. The Chargers had a high number of tackle opportunities last year and that figures to change. Cooper is solid and I am a fan of his talent, but it's hard to say how many of his solos were as a result of being on the field a lot.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots: Mayo had a huge rookie season in 2008, finishing with 100 solos. The fact that the Patriots selected him 10th overall speaks volumes about his talent. He should put up strong tackle numbers every year, but there are still a couple of question marks about Mayo. He did not make many big plays and it's hard to say if that was caused by inexperience. Also, the Patriots were not as strong defensively as they were in past years, so there were more tackle opportunities. When all is said and done, I still think he will be a mid level LB1, but there are some mild risks.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears: Urlacher had his worst season as a pro last year, finishing with only 79 solos and no sacks. Urlacher has had back problems and looked a step slow to me last year and it's hard to say if he will bounce back physically. A healthy Urlacher is a LB1 and he has had several years as a dominant fantasy LB. I am too skeptical of his health to rank him any higher than a LB2 right now, but if he is healthy, he is a solid LB1. These situations are the toughest to forecast because until the season starts, we really will not know how healthy he is and if he has lost a step or not.

Defensive Backs

Bernard Pollard, Kansas City Chiefs: Pollard is a solid run defender with questionable coverage skills. Those kinds of safeties make me nervous. Pollard is capable of top ten numbers, but at the same time, he is capable of losing snaps in passing situations. I ranked him in the middle of the DB2 tier, but he could be anywhere from 10 to 30. There is a risk with Pollard every year because he is so weak in coverage. If you draft him, have a contingency plan just in case he gets benched.

Quintin Mikell, Philadelphia Eagles: Mikell had a solid 2008 season and normally he would not be a player that would be hard to rank. He is a solid tackler and good enough in coverage to be a DB1 in most cases. I just have a tough time ranking him high because of Sean Jones. I consider Jones a better talent and that alone makes me leery of Mikell. I am usually of the belief that talent finds its way onto the field and this situation is no different, even though there are no signs of Jones pushing Mikell for playing time. I would keep an eye on this during the season.

Nick Collins, Green Bay Packers: Collins had a breakout year in 2008, finishing with a career high seven interceptions and adding 15 passes defended. He plays free safety and that is reflected in his average tackle numbers. I usually have a hard time ranking players who put up pedestrian tackle numbers and have a big spike in big play numbers. I think Collins will regress some this year, but a low DB2 seems reasonable. That is admittedly on the high side of the range I see him finishing, but he has a lot of playmaking ability and I think last season will turn out to be the rule rather than the exception. Just know that Collins carries some risk because if his big play numbers fall off, so will his overall ranking because he doesn't put up much in the way of tackle numbers.

Brandon Meriweather, New England Patriots: Meriweather played very well last year after replacing the injured Rodney Harrison. Normally, a rookie who plays well and is entering his second season merits a ranking with little doubts about it. But the fact is the Patriots spent a high draft pick on Patrick Chung, who is a prototypical strong safety in the mold of the previously mentioned Rodney Harrison. It's not a matter of if Chung starts, it's a matter of when, and when he does, Meriweather will likely be moved to the less IDP friendly free safety spot. I have him ranked as a high DB4 right now, but that is partly because I don't think he starts all season at strong safety. The way I usually handle this is to draft Meriweather a little higher than I have him ranked, then sell high after a couple of strong games. That is only if I think Chung will be starting any time soon.