Mission Impossible!

Posted 8/31 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Well, maybe it is not impossible, but you get the point. Every season there are players who are very tough to rank for a multitude of reasons, such as durability, questionable performance, a hot shot young player behind them, or any number of other reasons. Sometimes I wish I could just rank the players who seem to fit nicely into a slot, but it does not work that way. I am going to list some of the players who were toughest for me to rank, along with the reasons.

Quarterbacks

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: Orton was already going to be tough to rank, then comes the Brandon Marshall suspension. Now trying to forecast Orton is like trying to eat Jello with chopsticks. In other words, this is as tough as it gets. First, you have to try and predict what will happen with Marshall. It is tough enough to predict what the Broncos management will do, but you also have to predict what the mentally unstable Marshall will do. There is a big difference in the weapons Orton will have with Marshall compared to without and when you consider Orton is not an elite fantasy QB, that difference is huge. I had Orton ranked as a high QB2 prior to Marshall's outburst, but now, I think a mid to low QB2 is more like it and even that is risky.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: There is no question that Cutler possess elite talent and in the right circumstances, he would be considered a mid level QB1, which is what he was last year. But there are some major issues for Cutler. First and most obvious, is the caliber of weapons Cutler has in Chicago compared to what he had last year. Throwing to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal is a lot different than throwing to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett. Second, Cutler launched over 600 passes last year and that isn't going to happen this year. But to totally ignore his talent would be a mistake. I have him at the bottom of the QB1 tier and admittedly, that could be a bit low.

Running Backs

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Even though Johnson is the unquestioned starter, he is in a tough situation. The Chiefs brought in Todd Haley and it's likely the Chiefs will run a lot of plays out of the shotgun. That is not the best formation for Larry Johnson and it is possible he could lose a significant number of snaps to Jamaal Charles. The other thing is the Chiefs are switching to the 3-4 defense and they simply do not have the personnel to make the switch right now. The Chiefs will have a hard time stopping anyone and they could be in passing situations more often than not and that could also limit his snaps. It is very hard to predict how many touches LJ will have. I have him ranked in the mid 20s and he could conceivably be ranked from the teens to the thirties.

Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns: Lewis has definitely lost a step and he is playing on a team with very few weapons and a bad situation at QB. On the other hand, I don't see any other RBs on their roster who is capable of being an every down RB. Lewis is a full time RB with little competition for carries and I still can't rank him any higher than a RB3, and that could be an optimistic ranking. Lewis will probably fall in drafts and if you wait on backup RBs, Lewis might not be a bad option later in drafts. Players like Lewis are very hard to rank because you never know when they will see the end of the line, and Lewis is getting close.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints: Bush has had serious issues with his knee and that by itself raises a big red flag over his prospects for the 2009 season. But Bush is also an elite talent and although he does not carry the ball like a typical RB, he has the potential to add 1000 receiving yards. He has to compete with Pierre Thomas for carries and that hurts his value. The real problem (aside from his health) is we really don't know how the Saints will split up the carries and that is a nightmare for fantasy owners. I have Bush as a low RB2 and that is more because of what I see him doing in the passing game. He is another player with a high ceiling and a low floor.

The Tampa Bay RBs: A few weeks ago, this looked like a battle between Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham and I expected Ward to get slightly more carries than Graham. Now you can add the suddenly rejuvenated Cadillac Williams to the mix and you have a real mess. The Tampa coaches are saying they will run a 2-2-1, which means that two RBs will each run two series and the other RB one. That is a real mess by itself, but right now, we have no idea what roles any of the RBs will have.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos: I know…this is a real shock. Marshall has the talent to be a stud WR, but the immaturity and selfishness are placing a huge roadblock in front of him. The thing is, Marshall will almost certainly play this year, so he has to be ranked somewhere. Then again, Marshall might come back and get suspended again. Who really knows how this will play out? This is a nightmare for fantasy owners and for those of us who have to rank him. There is a point where I think he has to be picked and it's likely where you would take your third WR. He comes with enormous risk, but if the price is a mid round pick, then it might be worth your while to take a chance on him.

Roy Williams, Dallas Cowboys: Williams is expected to be the Cowboys' number one receiver, but he has a lot to prove. Williams had one great year in Detroit when Mike Martz ran his pass happy offense, but other than that, his career has been filled with injuries and inconsistent play. Williams has the talent to be a WR1, but his performance speaks like a WR3. I generally give more weight to talent, but in the case of an underachiever like Williams, I find it hard to see him as more than a low end WR2.

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Is Edwards the stud WR who had 16 TDs and finished as the third fantasy WR in 2007, or the WR who only had 55 receptions and led the NFL in drop last year? I think he is somewhere in between but closer to his 2007 season. The big concern is that the Browns have mediocre QBs and no other weapons. On the other hand, sometimes being the only weapon leads to a ton of targets and an elite talent is capable of putting up huge numbers if that happens. I have him as a high WR2 with upside and risk both…exactly the kind of player that this article is about.

Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills: Owens is a game changer at WR and has proven to be one of the best fantasy players in the last decade. He is in great shape, but at 35 years old, I have to wonder how much he has left. Owens is on a team with a largely unproven QB and a poor offensive line and that could frustrate him. We all know what a frustrated Owens can do and it's not good. He should be able to put up mid WR2 numbers, but he literally could be anywhere from the mid WR1 area to the WR3 range. Owens is yet another player with a large ranking range.

Tight Ends

Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Winslow is tough to rank and the main reason is the unsettled QB situation. Winslow has the talent to be the top TE in the game, but it's hard to perform when your QB can't get you the ball or consistently move the offense. Winslow could be a great value play after the other elite TEs are gone, but only if the QB situation settles down and the running game is effective. He probably has more upside than downside when you consider where he will be drafted.

Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans Saints: Shockey is an enigma if there ever was one. In terms of talent, Shockey is one of the best two way TEs in the league, but he seems to always have an attitude problem about something. The Saints have a great offense and there is only one ball to go around. Shockey is good enough to be a top five TE if his head is in the game, but the inconsistency keeps him ranked a lot lower. His ranking could be anywhere from five to 20 and not be wrong.