IDP Sleepers - Week 11

Updated 11/18 by Anthony Borbely, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This article is a weekly look at players generally ranked around the edge of those considered "startable". For the purposes of this article, I will define startable as all players on the edge of starting on a team that starts 2 DL, 2 LBs, and 2 DBs. Therefore, about the middle of DL2, LB2 and DB2 range are usually where the choices begin to get tough. Each position is covered in descending order beginning with the players who have the most prime matchups to those with more risk and less upside to those who are complete reaches. Your mileage may vary, but the idea is to discuss these players and provide you with some analysis that might help you make those difficult lineup decisions a bit easier. I hope that your expertise as an owner has filled your team with enough players that you don't need to consider players outside of the prime cuts discussed here. Good luck and always keep in mind that your feedback and comments are welcome. I also want to thank and give credit to Bob Henry for creating the format for this article.

Defensive Linemen

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

I am not listing any prime cut sleepers because there are none. This is perhaps the worst week to find sleepers at the DL spot. The best sleepers are obviously 4-3 DEs who have great matchups. This week, the high majority of teams that are great matchups for defensive linemen play against teams that run a 3-4 defense. While some of those players are decent sleepers, I honestly cannot think of one 3-4 DL that I would consider a must start sleeper, not just this week, but in most weeks. There are a handful of solid sleepers this week, but a prime cut sleeper needs to be one with a great chance at a big game and I just don't see it this week. I think it would be a disservice to the readers to force a square peg into a round hole by having a prime cut DL this week when I don't believe there is one.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

William Hayes, Tennessee Titans: Hayes is one of the most improved defensive ends in the league and has been doing what Kyle Vanden Bosch hasn't and that is getting to the QB. Hayes has four sacks, including 2.5 in the last two games and also has had at least three total tackles in eight of his nine games. The Titans have a solid matchup with the Texans this week. They have only allowed 15 sacks, but they have been ranked close to the top five all year in QB pressures allowed. Hayes should have plenty of chances to rack up some sacks and all he has to do is finish the deal when he puts pressure on Matt Schaub. His tackle numbers have been respectable and he should be strongly considered as a sleeper at DL this week.
Chris Kelsay, Buffalo Bills: Kelsay has never been considered anything more than a journeyman DE. He has only had five sacks once in his career and only once has he eclipsed the 40 solo tackle mark. This year, Kelsay is on pace to shatter his career highs in both solo tackles and sacks. He has 26 solos, 14 assists, and 3.5 sacks this year and that is good enough to rank him inside the top 20 DL. This week, Kelsay has a solid matchup against the Jags and he should be in the middle of the action in the run game as I expect MJD to see at least 25-30 touches against the porous Buffalo run defense. Kelsay's tackle numbers should be solid this week and with the Jags being one of the worst teams at protecting the QB, Kelsay also should have some sack opportunities. The only reason Kelsay isn't a prime cut is because he is not an elite pass rusher.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers: Smith's numbers have been way down this season compared to the past. Smith had always been one of the leaders in tackles among defensive linemen, but this year he only has 21 solos and 11 assists. In the last five games, he has 15 solos and 10 assists, so the production has been getting better in the tackle column. Sacks are another story as Smith only has one all year and that was in week one. Smith faces the Packers in week 11 and if there ever was a time for Smith to rack up a sack, it would be against the leagues worst pass blocking team. Smith's tackle numbers should be solid enough by themselves to warrant consideration as a low-level sleeper. Any sacks Smith may get would be a nice bonus.
Shaun Rogers, Cleveland Browns: Rogers had a ridiculous 62 solos last year and there was just no way he could maintain numbers like that on a year to year basis. He has a more realistic 23 solos this year, but that is a somewhat disappointing stat since the Browns are so bad and near the bottom of the league in time of possession. This week, Rogers faces his former team, the Lions. They are not usually bad against interior linemen, but they lost steady guard Stephen Peterman to injury last week and Rogers should have his way with the middle of the Detroit line. Players are often motivated when they play the team that traded them and even though it was a year and a half ago, expect Rogers to come with his best effort this week. He should be good for a handful of tackles against the Lions in the running game, and with the already poor offensive line losing Peterman, he also could have some sack opportunities.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags have decided to go back to running a 4-3 defense and that is welcome news for Derrick Harvey, who was out of place playing OLB in the 3-4 defense. Despite not registering any sacks this year, Harvey has shown improvement this year. The matchup is solid against the Bills and Harvey does have talent. This is the desperation section of this article, so you know there is risk here. In a week with very few decent options, taking a chance on upside is not the worst thing in the world. Harvey should see some sack opportunities and it is up to him to capitalize on some of them.

Linebackers

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots: Mayo missed some time due to a knee injury and since returning, he has put up solid numbers for the Patriots. He has 25 solos in five games and while those are respectable numbers, they are disappointing for his fantasy owners after Mayo racked up 100 solos as a rookie last year. This week, Mayo faces the Jets and they have been a strong matchup for inside LBs this year. The Jets lead the league in rushing attempts with 36 per game and also have been close to the top five all year in tackle opportunities allowed. Mayo has been solid in his better matchups this year and I see no reason for this week to be any different. I think Mayo is a virtual must start this week. I also think it is a matter of time before Mayo returns to being an every week starter.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Channing Crowder, Miami Dolphins: Crowder has been among the biggest disappointments all year long, but last week, he finally had a huge game with nine solos and a sack. Prior to that, he only had more than three solos one time all year. So which is the real Crowder? My guess is somewhere in between and as long as that is the case; I will only play him when I see a decent matchup. This week's game with Carolina is a solid enough matchup to consider starting Crowder. The Panthers are likely to run the ball a lot with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I expect them to have around 35 carries between them and if that happens, Crowder will have a shot at a big game.
Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts: Brackett has frustrated his owner this year, partly because he has missed time with injuries and the other part because of his pedestrian tackle numbers. In the four games prior to last week, Brackett only had 15 solo tackles. But he came to life against the Patriots last week, racking up 11 total tackles. This week' matchup is not quite as good as the one with New England, but the Ravens are still a solid matchup. They are in the middle of the pack in rushing attempts per game, but Joe Flacco has struggled lately and they may want to try and control the clock and keep the high-powered Colts' offense off the field. Inside LBs have put up solid tackle numbers against the Ravens in most of their games and Brackett had one of his best games last week, so that combination makes him a solid sleeper this week.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Landon Johnson, Carolina Panthers: Johnson replaced the injured Thomas Davis at WLB for the Panthers last week and he responded with a six solos effort. Those are not bad numbers for a player who had not been a starter for a few years. He has a great matchup in week 11 against the Dolphins. Miami lost Ronnie Brown for the season with a foot injury, but they still have Ricky Williams and he has played great football all year for the Dolphins. The running game will still be their priority and with them near the top of the league in tackle opportunities allowed, expect Johnson to have a decent chance to put up solid tackle numbers this week. He lacks the big play ability of Davis and has to contend with Jon Beason for tackles, so there is some risk. But he should be relatively safe as a low-level sleeper.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Antonio Pierce, New York Giants: Pierce is not a consistent enough tackler to be anything other than a low-end sleeper unless he has a really strong matchup. He has had more than five solos three times this year. This week he faces the Falcons, who are almost certain to be without stud RB Michael Turner. Jason Snelling will replace him and with Matt Ryan struggling of late, I expect Atlanta to maintain their run-heavy attack. Pierce could put up solid tackle numbers this week, but his inconsistency does make him risky and that is why I would only use him if you are really thin at LB this week.

Defensive Backs

Prime Cut (Great matchup, strong sleeper)

Sabby Piscitelli, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Piscitelli has been playing some solid football of late, racking up 22 solos and five assists in his last four games. He had a great matchup last week against the Dolphins and took advantage of it by racking up nine total tackles and forcing a fumble. This week, Piscitelli has another great matchup against the powerhouse Saints' offense. Strong safeties have averaged eight solos against the Saints and I see no reason to expect anything different this week. Piscitelli is playing the best football of his career and has the best possible matchup and that makes him a prime cut sleeper this week.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Quintin Mikell, Philadelphia Eagles: Mikell has not been the DB1 that many of us expected this year. He has only had three games all season with five or more solo tackles. The Eagles have been hammered with injuries all season. They lost MLB Stewart Bradley early in the year, then WLB Akeem Jordan got hurt, forcing them to move the recently acquired Will Witherspoon to the weak side spot. Then they lost CBs Josario Hanson, Ellis Hobbs, and Sheldon Brown. Mikell should see more tackle opportunities in the running game going forward and with so many injuries in the secondary, the Eagles could have trouble getting off the field, which would help Mikell's tackle numbers. This week, Mikell faces the Cowboys and they have been a good matchup for strong safeties this year. I think the Eagles are going to have problems defending Dallas and Mikell should be able to rack up some solid tackle numbers this week. I hesitate to make Mikell a prime cut because the Cowboys are a good, but not great matchup for strong safeties.
Ronald Bartell, St. Louis Rams: Bartell has quietly been putting up solid tackle numbers for the Rams this year. He has had at least five tackles in every game except last week's matchup with the Saints and Bartell has had six solos on five different occasions this year. Bartell has not put up much in coverage, so the tackle numbers are likely all we can expect from him. This week, Bartell faces the Cardinals and opposing corners have close to 120 tackles against them this year. Arizona is second in the league in pass attempts per game and Bartell should see a ton of action this week. Only his lack of big play numbers is keeping Bartell out of the prime cut section this week.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Ko Simpson, Detroit Lions: Simpson takes over at strong safety for the Lions following the season-ending injury to Marquand Manuel. The Lions have been so bad on defense that their starting strong safety is almost always a consideration to be a sleeper candidate. This week's matchup is interesting as that defense plays the Browns, who arguably have the league's worst offense. Something has to give here, but who knows how this will shake out. I would consider Simpson a low-end sleeper only because the Browns are really bad offensively and even against the Lions defense, they may not be able to stay on the field for long.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Tyrell Johnson, Minnesota Vikings: Johnson has not put up consistent tackle numbers this year and part of the reason is the solid play of the Vikings front seven. Johnson still has managed 35 solos this year and while they aren't great numbers, they aren't all that bad when you consider his inexperience. This week he faces the Seahawks, who lead the league in pass attempts per game with 41. They run a lot of short passes in their west coast offense and that usually means a lot of action for the safeties. If you are desperate for a sleeper, you could do a lot worse than Johnson.