Understanding IDP Dynasty Rankings

Posted 8/19 by Anthony Borbely - Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As a long time IDP dynasty league player, I believe understanding dynasty rankings will go a long way in helping you put together a solid core of players that will help you contend for championships for many years. This article focuses on building a solid IDP dynasty team, and also learning how to analyze rankings. I will be including some of my IDP dynasty rankings with this article, with an explanation of why the players were ranked where they were. Fantasy players are better equipped to use someone's rankings if they have an understanding of the thought process used to rank the players. Everyone must also realize that those of us who provide rankings use different criteria and analyze players in different ways.

There are several factors involved in dynasty rankings that are vastly different from redraft rankings. I will briefly explain how the various factors impact my thinking when I do my dynasty rankings, and then I will get more specific regarding the IDP rankings that I am including with this article.

First on the list, to the surprise of nobody, is the fact that you have to peer into the future in dynasty leagues. A player's age is a key factor in determining where a player gets ranked. The goal should be to build a solid core that will allow you to contend for several years. That is best accomplished with young, talented players. But it doesn't mean you should ignore older players altogether. I generally will have older players ranked at a point where I would not be able to pass them up if I was in a draft.

A prime example is Washington Redskins LB London Fletcher. I have him ranked ninth in redraft, but 20th in dynasty because he is 34 years old and that is a time when linebackers start to slow down. I believe the players I ranked higher than Fletcher in my dynasty rankings are better long-term dynasty players. At the same time, he is still a great player and I can't rank him lower than the players currently below him because he is simply a lot better than any of them. Determining where to rank older players is one of the hardest things to do in dynasty rankings. You have to try and project how they will do going forward.

The same thing holds true for rookies and other young, unproven players. The talented rookies have to be ranked somewhere, but where? You have to use your knowledge, scouting reports, news from beat writers, and other things to determine a rookie's long-term outlook with the team that drafted him. Slotting an unproven player in the middle of proven NFL players in dynasty rankings is not easy. There are several factors that go into play in ranking rookies. I consider talent to be at the top of the list, along with opportunity and the scheme they will play in.

Another thing you should be aware of is a players contract situation and also the scheme they play in. Some players may be changing teams in the next year or two, and that can drastically affect their long-term value. A great example of this was the past situation of Jonathan Vilma. I am going to refer to what I wrote about Vilma in the 2007 and 2008 version of this article. That probably illustrates this point better than any other situation. Those past comments about Vilma are below in italics:

I have Vilma ranked 11th in dynasty. You may ask why I would have him so high, when he really struggles in the 3-4 defense installed in New York by Jets coach Eric Mangini. The reason is because I know Vilma's contract expires after the 2009 season. There are several scenarios' that are possible. One is that Vilma has another subpar season in the 3-4, and the Jets will want to trade him after the season, rather than losing him to free agency. Another is that he may leave as a free agent after the 2009 season because the Jets will not want to pay him as much as he could command on the open market. People sometimes forget that Vilma was the top fantasy LB in 2005, when he played MLB in the 4-3 defense. Should he go to a team that plays a 4-3 defense, he could very well be a top stud LB again. He may not be putting up big numbers right now, but if you look ahead at the possibilities, you may be able to acquire a future top five LB for a great price.

As you can see, there are times when it can pay to look ahead regarding the status of a players contract and the scheme they play in. If you do that and your competition doesn't, you can often find some tremendous value that the other owners will never see. Vilma is now playing MLB in a 4-3 defense for the Saints. If you paid attention to Vilma's contract situation and scheme, you may have bought a stud LB for a cheap price. Vilma is once again a stud fantasy LB and is paying huge dividends for those who have him on their rosters.

A player's contract situation not only affects him, it also affects his backup. If there is a player who plays a prime fantasy position and/or has a talented player behind him, you should be targeting the backup before the starter potentially leaves. You want to do it now because the backup has low current value. This includes both expiring contracts and contracts that are large enough to cause a player to be cut for salary cap reasons.

The coaching situations also need to be looked at. If a coach is on the hot seat, you should be prepared for the changes that may occur in the event there is a coaching change. This not only includes the head coach, but also possible changes at both offensive and defensive coordinator. Scheme changes go hand in hand with a coaching change, and can have a drastic effect on a player's value. As stated above, Vilma's past situation shows how much a coaching or scheme change can affect a player's fantasy value. He was an elite fantasy LB playing MLB in the 4-3 defense, and dropped off significantly when the Jets switched to the 3-4 defense. Unfortunately, it's hard to know what a new coaching staff will do, but if you suspect a player may be in a new scheme due to a coaching change, you should be on top of the situation and prepare several strategies to account for the various possibilities that may occur.

There are a few other things that factor into dynasty rankings, including talent and upside, opportunity to play, the quality of the team a player is on, and the injury history of a player. These items apply to all rankings, not just dynasty. I place a high value on talent in dynasty rankings. Talented players have the best chance to be fantasy studs and I rank them higher than good players who are in a good scheme, and also higher than players who benefit from opportunity, but who don't have elite talent. I look for players with upside and often will have them ranked ahead of players who are a little more productive, but who don't have as high of a ceiling. The hard part is determining where to rank these players in dynasty rankings. As I stated above, the objective is to build a long-term core of players that can make your team a contender for several years. The middle of the road players who put up decent numbers, but have no upside are easy to find compared to the talented players with a high ceiling. They contribute to a winning team, but studs win championships in fantasy football.

I'm going to delve into my IDP dynasty ranking criteria and explain some of the things I consider when generating my rankings. All of the topics I have discussed to this point are relevant to both offensive and defensive players.

There is one key thing that I give a high priority to when building an IDP dynasty team. I want the majority of my IDP lineup to put up consistent fantasy numbers from week to week and this shows in my rankings. This assumes you aren't in a league that is weighted toward big plays. My rankings use FBG scoring, which is balanced pretty even between tackles and big plays. The most consistent players at any IDP position are those who get a lot of tackles, solo tackles in particular. If most of my starters can put up solid and consistent tackle numbers, it lessens the chance of having a really bad week from your IDP squad because it would be unlikely to see an entire team of consistent tacklers all have a bad week at the same time. If you start anywhere from 8-11 defensive players, and the majority are solid tacklers, you will find that the bad weeks are few and far between. It is fine to have a player or two who are considered big play players, but if you have too many, I think you risk the chance of a bad week because these kind of players tend to have a lot of highs and lows. The benefit is they also are more capable of putting up huge numbers at any time, so a strategy of mostly consistent player, mixed in with a couple of big play performers can be the best of both worlds.

My rankings reflect my strategy in building a championship dynasty team. I place a greater weight to consistent tacklers, so when looking at my rankings, you have to take that into consideration. The point here is that everyone who ranks dynasty players has certain criteria that are a higher priority than other things. It is important to be able to read someone's dynasty rankings and have an understanding of how they determine where to slot the various players. If you understand, then you can use the rankings to your advantage, even the ones you disagree with. Nobody is perfect when ranking, but I think dynasty rankings that come with an explanation can be beneficial to the building of your championship team. I think this article, and associated IDP dynasty rankings will help the fantasy owners understand why I have players ranked where they are.

I have included some of my IDP dynasty ranking with this article. What I did was rank my top 24 players at DL, LB, and DB, and then explain why they are ranked where they are. I also listed "the best of the rest", which are the next 12 players in my rankings. I generally use a two-year window for IDP dynasty rankings. The main reason is that I believe a scheme change has more impact on defensive players than offensive ones. Please remember that I am using FBG scoring when determining my rankings. FBG scoring is balanced between tackles and big plays.

I hope this article and the associated IDP dynasty rankings will help everyone gain an understanding of the criteria I use to determine where to rank players. I want to wish everyone the best and I hope this information will help you build a championship IDP dynasty team. After all, the objective is to win your league championship. And if you build the correct dynasty team, you can contend for many years to come. Good luck in your quest to build a great IDP dynasty championship team.

Defensive Linemen

Mario Williams, Houston Texans
Williams had 26 solos, 11 assists, and 10 sacks in the last eight games of 2007, and then had 22 solos and eight sacks in the first eight games of last year. You can do the math and see the huge potential that Williams has. He struggled in the last half of 2008, but had very little help. Williams is only 24 and arguably has more upside than any defensive player in the NFL. I believe Williams has 50 solo, 20 sack potential. For those reasons, Williams tops my list of dynasty defensive linemen.

Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings
Allen is the most consistent DL in the league and regularly can be counted on for 15 sacks. His solo tackle numbers fell to 42 last year, but that is largely because he has a better surrounding cast than he did when he played for the Chiefs. Allen was the top ranked fantasy DL in both 2006 and 2007. I ranked Allen second to Williams because of the three-year age difference and also because I think Williams has a higher ceiling. You can't go wrong with either of them and I literally could have listed them as 1 and 1A.

Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles
Cole has averaged 50 solos, 19 assists, and almost 10 sacks in his last three seasons. He is as consistent as any DL in the league and his high tackle numbers offer protection for games in which he doesn't register any sacks. I ranked Cole third because his sack numbers are not at the level of Williams or Allen, but Cole is more consistent than the players ranked below him.

Osi Umenyiora, New York Giants
Umenyiora missed the entire 2008 season with a torn ACL, but he had 40 or more solos and 14 or more sacks in two of the previous three seasons. When at his best, Umenyiora is one of the premier pass rushers in the league. I ranked Umenyiora fourth because I think he is a better pass rusher and more talented than those below him, but he is not as consistent as the top three.

Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens
Suggs consistently puts up high tackle numbers and is a relentless pass rusher, but in the Ravens' scheme, he often drops into coverage and that hurts his sack numbers. He has not registered double-digit sacks since 2004 and that is mildly concerning, but his high tackle numbers are enough to keep him near the top five every year, which is where I ranked him.

Justin Tuck, New York Giants
Tuck was the number one DL in 2008, finishing with career highs of 53 solos and 13 sacks. He received more playing time due to the injury to Osi Umenyiora and took full advantage of it. It is unlikely that he will play as many snaps as last year and that is the only reason he is ranked outside of the top five. It was tough deciding where to rank Tuck and Umenyiora, but I think Umenyiora is more talented and a better pure pass rusher.

Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers
Peppers is the toughest DL to rank because of his inconsistency. But his talent is impossible to ignore and if he could ever be more consistent, he could vault to the top of the rankings. Even with the spotty play, he has finished in the top five DL in three of the last five years. The players after Peppers are not nearly as good, but I could not rank him higher due to the lack of consistency. I literally could have ranked him anywhere from 1-20 and been justified, so keep that in mind.

Robert Mathis, Indianapolis Colts
Mathis has averaged over 10 sacks per year in his last five years and has been a top ten DL in three of the last four years. Mathis is expected to start this year, which should help his tackle numbers, but at only 235 pounds, he tends to wear down when playing a full complement of snaps. I ranked Mathis eighth because his tackle numbers are not as good as the players above him, but he is too good of a pass rusher to rank any lower.

Kyle Vanden Bosch, Tennessee Titans
Vanden Bosch missed six games due to a variety of injuries and even when he did play, he was not healthy enough to be effective. In the three seasons prior to last year, Vanden Bosch averaged 47 solos, 19 assists, and 10 sacks. Numbers like that are worthy of a top ten ranking. The loss of Albert Haynesworth could hurt, but Vanden Bosch should still find his way into the top ten DL.

Chris Long, St. Louis Rams
Long had a solid start to his rookie campaign last year, racking up 23 solos and four sacks in the first eight games. He then hit the rookie wall and had only nine solos and did not register any sacks the rest of the year. Long has the size and skills to be solid in run defense and as a pass rusher. Playing under new coach Steve Spagnuolo should help Long's development. It may take another year, but I expect Long to be a perennial top ten DL with upside.

Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Adams showed a modest improvement last year, but still only finished with 6.5 sacks and a relatively low 27 solo tackles. New defensive coordinator Jim Bates runs a scheme which has the DEs rush the QB from a better angle and that should help Adams increase his sack numbers. His talent and upside are good enough for me to rank him as a long-term DL1, but there are some risks due to his lack of production.

Cliff Avril, Detroit Lions
Avril showed flashes late last year, racking up 10 solos, four sacks, and three FFs in his last six games, and that was primarily playing on passing downs. This year, Avril is expected to see much more playing time and that will help his overall numbers. I think Avril has a ton of upside and looks like a future double-digit sack artist.

Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Smith has averaged 46 solos, 23 assists, and six sacks in the last seven years. The low sack numbers are concerning, but as long as Smith puts up those high tackle numbers, he will find himself in the mid to upper DL2 range even with pedestrian sack numbers. I have him at the top of the DL2 group because of his consistency and high tackle numbers.

Aaron Schobel, Buffalo Bills
Schobel missed most of last season with a foot injury and he is 32 years old. But it is hard to ignore his history of strong seasons and high tackle numbers. In the six seasons prior to last year, Schobel averaged 42 solos, 18 assists, and 10 sacks. I could not rank him higher due to the mild concerns about his age and a decline in sacks, but dropping him lower would not be justifiable because of his strong tackle numbers and consistency.

John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons
Abraham had a huge 2008 season, finishing with a career high 16.5 sacks. His tackle numbers are average at best and that keeps him out of the DL1 tier. But any player who can average ten sacks per year and get into the mid 30s in solo tackles is a solid DL2. His age and injury history keep him out of the top ten in dynasty rankings.

Darryl Tapp, Seattle Seahawks
Tapp recently lost his starting job and will basically be a passing down specialist. That doesn't usually justify a DL2 ranking, but this is dynasty and there are reasons to rank Tapp high. First, when he does play full time, he produces. Tapp has averaged 43 solos and 6.5 sacks in the last two years. Second, DE Patrick Kerney is getting up in years and has battled injuries of his own, so Tapp could get more playing time should Kerney have problems. Tapp is a solid mid level DL2 with upside when playing full time snaps. Should he see limited time early in the season, you dynasty leaguers should be looking to buy low for the future…and that could be sooner than you think.

Will Smith, New Orleans Saints
Smith had a career low three sacks last year, but in the previous four seasons, he averaged eight sacks to go along with 40 solos. Those are borderline DL1 numbers. New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams runs a more aggressive defense and that should help Smith increase his sack numbers to previous levels. I see him as a DL2 with some upside. He is a good buy low early in the season because he will miss the first four games due to a suspension.

Derrick Harvey, Jacksonville Jaguars
Harvey is tough to analyze because his long holdout last year cost him almost all of preseason and training camp. He is expected to start this year and has the combination of size and speed to be a solid two-way DE. I currently have him as a mid level DL2 because I just didn't see enough from him last year, but just know the upside is there. This is a classic boom or bust player right now.

Mathias Kiwanuka, New York Giants
Kiwanuka started last year following the season ending injury to Osi Umenyiora and he wound up with 35 solos, 16 assists, and 8.5 sacks. He is expected to lose a considerable amount of snaps this year, but Kiwanuka's pass rushing skills should still allow him to rack up solid numbers. I believe in his talent and even though he doesn't have the best situation, I can't justify ranking him any lower in dynasty.

Adewale Ogunleye, Chicago Bears
Ogunleye has averaged over 50 solos in the last two years, but in the previous five years, he averaged only 34. He had 16 sacks in 2003, but in the five years since, he has averaged seven. The year-to year inconsistency and the fact that he is 32 years old is why I have him ranked 20th.

Dewayne White, Detroit Lions
White has missed six games in the last two years due to various injuries, but he has been a playmaker for the Lions when he has been healthy. In both seasons with Detroit, White was on pace for over 40 solos and has averaged a sack every two games. White is ranked as a DL2 because of his tackle numbers and has upside if he can improve on his sack numbers.

Alex Brown, Chicago Bears
Brown is one of the most overlooked IDPs every year. All he does is put up solid numbers every year. He has averaged 40 solos and six sacks in his last six years and has only missed two games in that span. He will never be a great pass rusher, but 40 solos and six sacks usually results in a low end DL2. Brown only has limited upside and often can be drafted later than this ranking suggest.

Andre Carter, Washington Redskins
Carter's production fell off the map last year and it's tough to figure out why. The defense was not very aggressive last year and I believe that is the main reason for Carter's decline in production. I am not one who thinks he has lost anything, but time will tell. I currently have him as a low end DL2 for dynasty. Carter has a high ceiling and a low floor and is a classic risk/reward player.

Aaron Maybin, Buffalo Bills
Maybin has a ton of potential, but with a long holdout, it may be 2010 before we see any real production. But these are dynasty rankings and rookie DEs often show little in their first year. The upside I see in Maybin is enough for me to rank him at the bottom of the DL2 tier, but he has the talent to be better. It's just hard to rank him higher than this. I will add that this ranking is on the risky side, but as I stated in the opening, I like to take chances on talent.

Best of the Rest

Darnell Dockett, Arizona Cardinals
Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts
Michael Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Shaun Rogers, Cleveland Browns
Charles Grant, New Orleans Saints
Albert Haynesworth, Washington Redskins
Trevor Scott, Oakland Raiders
Haloti Ngata, Baltimore Ravens
Ray Edwards, Minnesota Vikings
Patrick Kerney, Seattle Seahawks
Leonard Little, St. Louis Rams
Everette Brown, Carolina Panthers

Linebackers

Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers
After finishing his rookie year in 2007 with a ridiculous 137 solos, Willis came back to earth last year. He still finished with 109 solos and when that is considered coming back to earth, you know the kind of talent Willis has. He is one of the premier athletes in the NFL at any position. Willis is only entering his third year and it is scary to think he still has a lot to learn. There may be other LBs who will be the top ranked LB in certain years, but Willis is unquestionably the best long-term LB you can draft in a dynasty league.

Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers
Beason has put up 106 and 110 solos in his first two years. If not for Willis having such monster numbers as a rookie, Beason would be getting more attention for what he did. He is among the most athletic LBs in the league, plays a prime fantasy position, and does not have a weakness. I think he is more talented than any LB other than Willis and that plus his proven production makes him my number two ranked LB.

Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ruud had a huge season last year, finishing with a career high 102 solos and three sacks. He had 58 solos in the first half of 2007 before being slowed by a knee injury. He is a proven tackling machine and now will play in the Jim Bates scheme, which has yielded some huge MLB seasons in the past. Ruud is probably not as talented as the LBs above him, but he is clearly better than the rest and fits as the third ranked LB.

Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots
I was not as high on Mayo last year because I thought there would be limitations to his numbers due to the scheme he plays in. Mayo had 100 solos in the Belichick defense last year and very few could have expected those numbers. Mayo is among the most talented LBs in the league and has huge upside. I don't think Mayo is at the level of the three players ranked above him, but his youth and high upside warrant him being the fourth ranked LB.

Jonathan Vilma, New York Jets
As I wrote earlier in this article, Vilma is the poster child for the importance of scheme when ranking players. As a 4-3 MLB, Vilma is a proven stud, which is a far cry from his below average performance as a 3-4 ILB. Last year, a rejuvenated Vilma had 98 solos and 34 assists in his first season with the Saints. He should be a top five LB for the foreseeable future.

DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans
Ryans had an injury-plagued 2008 season and finished with a career low of 86 solos. When healthy, Ryans is a tackling machine with elite instincts and makes plays all over the field. The Texans have gotten much better at the OLB spots and that could impact Ryans. I ranked him sixth because of mild concerns about the injuries, but his past is impossible to ignore and is why I did not rank him any lower.

D.J. Williams, Denver Broncos
Williams had a career-high 106 solos in 2007 and was on pace for 110 solos last year before an injury caused him to miss five games. Williams will play RILB in Mike Nolan's 3-4 defense. Past players who have played that position in a Nolan defense include Patrick Willis and Ray Lewis, both of whom put up huge tackle numbers. Williams has proven to be an elite LB and should remain in the middle of the LB1 tier for the next few years.

Curtis Lofton, Atlanta Falcons
Lofton did not put up big numbers as a rookie, but when you consider that he was only a two-down LB, the numbers suddenly don't look so bad. Lofton will be an every down player this year and with his talent he could approach 100 solos. Lofton has elite upside and will only get better with more playing time. I currently have him ranked eighth, but he could easily outperform this ranking for many years to come. I just think the players ranked above him are better, but I could not argue a top five ranking for Lofton.

Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks
Tatupu had an off year in 2008, finishing with only 68 solos, but he battled nagging injuries all season. In the three previous seasons, he averaged 87 solos and 25 assists and was a top-15 LB in all three seasons. When you consider the Seahawks played in a very conservative read-and-react defense, those numbers are pretty impressive. Tatupu has great instincts and should be healthy this year. I believe Tatupu is one of the most undervalued LBs in both dynasty and redraft leagues.

Paul Posluszny, Buffalo Bills
Posluszny started off strong in 2008, racking up 50 solos before slumping in the second half of the season. It was his first full season in the NFL. Posluszny is capable of 90-100 solos every year and even with limited big play ability, he should be around the end of the LB1 tier. I ranked him tenth because I see Posluszny consistently putting up high tackle numbers. For those concerned about the lack of big plays and this high of a ranking, consider that in the last five years, every LB who had 90 or more solos has been a top 15 or higher LB

Kirk Morrison, Oakland Raiders
Every year we seem to hear stories about Morrison moving to SLB. Then he plays in the middle and puts up 90-100 solos. Morrison is one of the most consistent fantasy LBs around and is a solid anchor for any IDP team. The only negative are a lack of big plays and the mild concerns that he could move to SLB and that is why he is outside of the top ten. His tackle numbers are too good to rank any lower.

Karlos Dansby, Arizona Cardinals
Dansby had a career year with Arizona last year, finishing with 94 solos to go along with his usual strong big play numbers. Prior to last year, 78 solos were the most Dansby has had. The tough thing is trying to project how many solos Dansby will get. My guess long-term is somewhere in the 80s. With that and his big play ability, I feel ranking him 12th is justified. I just find it hard to rank him higher due to the uncertainty about his solo tackle numbers.

James Harrison, Pittsburgh Steelers
In the last two years, Harrison has put up fantasy numbers that are unprecedented for 3-4 OLBs. He had 16 sacks last year, but the thing that Harrison does that others never have is putting up 77 and 67 solos in the last two years. That is just unheard of for a 3-4 OLB. Prior to this, 3-4 OLBs were never considered to be top 20 LBs in a standard scoring system. I have a hard time ranking Harrison higher than 13th in dynasty because counting on 15 sacks is not easy and he is also in his 30s. This is a player who some will think is ranked too low, but recall my strategy for dynasty rankings places a heavier weight towards consistent tacklers.

E.J. Henderson, Minnesota Vikings
Henderson had a huge 2007 season, finishing with 95 solos and 5.5 sacks. He was off to a great start last year with 23 solos and a sack in the first three plus games before suffering a season-ending knee injury in week four. He is a solid MLB, but not an elite talent and I believe he is a long-term upper level LB2 with upside.

Lance Briggs, Chicago Bears
Briggs has had two seasons with over 100 solos in his career, which is rare for any non middle linebacker. But two of the last five years, he has only had 83 solos. That inconsistency is the main reason that Briggs is ranked in the mid teens.

Justin Durant, Jacksonville Jaguars
Durant is taking over at MLB for the Jags and offers a lot of upside and a lot of questions as well. It remains to be seen how he handles the middle, but he did start the final two games there last year and racked up 13 solos. That is a small sample size, but it is all we have at this point. I have him ranked in the middle of the LB2 tier with LB1 upside.

Aaron Curry, Seattle Seahawks
Curry was the fourth overall pick and was expected to play SLB as a rookie. However, he played WLB in the first preseason game and that has to excite his dynasty owners. Ranking rookie outside LBs long-term is difficult because it is hard to know what role they will play in the defense. Curry is an exceptional athlete who should be a three-down player in the future, although he may not play in all situations as a rookie. I chose to rank Curry in the mid LB2 tier because I'm not sure how his tackle numbers will play out, but he has huge upside because of his big play potential.

Lawrence Timmons, Pittsburgh Steelers
Timmons finally gets his chance to start following the departure of Larry Foote in the offseason. Timmons has produced as a part timer and he has the ability to make plays all over the field. It is questionable if Timmons can put up enough solo tackles in the Pittsburgh 3-4 defense to be a LB1, but a big play LB with upside makes for a fine LB2.

Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens
Lewis is 34 years old and clearly is not the elite player he was in his prime, but he is still a solid fantasy LB with the ability to be a LB1. I rarely rank player his age in the top 20, but like I said earlier, I rank older players at a point where I cannot pass them up. Lewis should be solid for a couple of years at worst and that is my window for IDPs. He has LB1 upside, but there is risk because his solo tackles have declined and because of age, but he makes enough big plays to justify this ranking. Many dynasty leaguers will pass Lewis over for younger options and you may get him later than this. Just make sure you have a future replacement if you draft Lewis or any other older player.

D'Qwell Jackson, Cleveland Browns
Jackson had a huge year in 2008, racking up 96 solos and an astounding 58 assists. It is hard to fathom seeing that many assisted tackles, but the fact remains that Jackson was around the ball a lot. I believe Jackson's numbers will fall off in Mangini's defense, but I can't justify ranking him outside of the top 20 because of his performance last year. Jackson is another classic risk/reward player. He will likely be drafted higher than this ranking in startup dynasty leagues.

London Fletcher, Washington Redskins
Fletcher has been the most consistent IDP of the last decade and has never missed a game in his 11-year career. He has had seven consecutive years with 90 or more solos, including three seasons with more than 100. Like Ray Lewis, Fletcher is up in years and that is the only reason he is ranked this low.

DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
Ware had a career high 20 sacks last year and added 69 solos. It will be difficult to repeat those numbers again, but 60 solos/15 sacks is not out of the question. Ware is similar to James Harrison, but I don't see him putting up the same solo numbers consistently and that is why he is ranked lower than Harrison.

Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears
After three consecutive seasons with 90 or more solos, Urlacher's tackle numbers declined sharply last year to 79. He has had some issues with his back and looked a step slow last year. Urlacher is very hard to rank, but I think a healthy Urlacher is at least a LB2 with upside. Just note there is risk involved.

Stephen Cooper, San Diego Chargers
Cooper had a strong 2008 season and would have had 90 solos had he played all 16 games, but I am skeptical about ranking him any higher than a low LB2 long-term. He is 30 years old and prior to last year, Cooper never had more than 75 solos. I am not sold enough on his talent to rank him higher, but his situation is too good to rank him out of the top 24. Like D'Qwell Jackson, Cooper will likely be drafted earlier than I would take him in a startup dynasty league.

Best of the Rest

Derrick Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs
Keith Rivers, Cincinnati Bengals
Ernie Sims, Detroit Lions
Will Witherspoon, St. Louis Rams
David Harris, New York Jets
Nick Barnett, Green Bay Packers
Chad Greenway, Minnesota Vikings
Rey Maualuga, Cincinnati Bengals
Thomas Davis, Carolina Panthers
James Laurinaitis, St. Louis Rams
Gary Brackett, Indianapolis Colts
Channing Crowder, Miami Dolphins

Defensive Backs

Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers
Considering that Marshall was the nickel back in each of his three seasons, his tackle numbers have bordered on amazing. He has been in the top 25 in solo tackles among all DBs in all three seasons, including 2007 when he finished with 79 solos. What will he do playing every down? He has great ball skills and combined with some struggles in pass defense last year, Marshall will probably be tested a lot, especially early in the season. That can do nothing but increase his numbers across the board. Also, despite this being his 4th year, Marshall is still only 24 years old. There are still many people sleeping on Marshall and he is a great buy right now both in redraft and dynasty leagues. He is currently my #1 DB in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Oshiomogho Atogwe, St. Louis Rams
Atogwe has had back-to-back huge fantasy seasons averaging 72 solos and six picks in those two seasons. Atogwe has great ball skills and when he has opportunities to make plays, he does…and that separates the elite DBs from the good ones. Now, Atogwe gets to play for Steve Spagnuolo, whose scheme is very favorable to two-way DBs like Atogwe. I see a long-term stud and only Marshall's upside keeps Atogwe from being at the top of the DB rankings in dynasty leagues.

Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
Wilson is the best strong safety in the league and I could not fault anyone for ranking him at the top of the DB rankings. I have mild concerns about his production last year, but the most recent reports (and the preseason game) suggest that Wilson will be playing much closer to the line and blitzing more. That is how he played during his elite years. I am currently ranking him third, but he could easily be ranked at the top. However, if Arizona does not let him play close to the line, then his value could drop. I'm less concerned about him than I was a few weeks ago and feel comfortable ranking him third.

Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears
Tillman is one of the best fantasy corners in the league and consistently puts up solid numbers across the board. In the last four seasons, Tillman has averaged 75 solos, 11 assists, 3 FFs, four picks, and 15 PDs. Those are elite numbers. I think his consistency and high tackle numbers justify the four spot in my dynasty rankings.

Antoine Winfield, Minnesota Vikings
Antoine Winfield is consistently among the DB leaders in tackles and usually finds his way into the top ten fantasy DBs. He is a strong, physical run defender and steady in coverage. Winfield is a tackling machine at CB, averaging over 5 solos per game over the last six seasons. Winfield adds just enough peripheral numbers to make him a candidate every year to be a mid level DB1. He is 31 years old and that is the only negative and it's a minor one at that. A top five ranking is justified for perhaps the most consistent DB around.

Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints
Harper has averaged 78 solos in the last two years, but his big play numbers virtually disappeared last year. With a more aggressive scheme this year, Harper should see an increase in those numbers to previous levels. I am a big fan of Harper's talent and when I considered his solid tackle numbers, I felt the sixth spot in the rankings was justified.

Eric Weddle, San Diego Chargers
Weddle had a huge year in 2008, racking up a ridiculous 105 solos on his way to the number one DB spot. The Chargers defense was bad and it's highly unlikely that Weddle can repeat numbers like that, but it only takes 80 solos to be a mid level DB1 and that is certainly feasible. As Weddle gains experience, his peripheral numbers could improve, but for now, I think his tackle numbers are solid enough to rank him seventh. This is a bit risky because it's hard to say what kind of numbers he will put up playing on a better defense.

Yeremiah Bell, Miami Dolphins
Bell came out of nowhere last year and racked up 100 solos en route to the number two DB spot. Bell was on very few fantasy rosters before last year and at 30 years old, a sudden improvement in play is extremely rare. Bell was signed to a large contract in the offseason and should continue to put up strong fantasy numbers. I don't consider him to be an elite talent and that is why he isn't ranked any higher, but it is hard to ignore what he did last year.

Gibril Wilson, Miami Dolphins
Wilson signed as a few agent with Miami after being released by Oakland…this after he racked up 96 solos and 33 assists for them in 2008. Wilson has been an elite fantasy DB for several years and has consistently ranked near the top of the DB list in tackles. Wilson may play more in deeper coverage than in the past, which is why he is ranked this low.

Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts
This is perhaps the riskiest ranking of any that I have done this year. Sanders is an elite player and worthy of this ranking when healthy, but he has been hurt a lot and I don't blame anyone who questions this. But I believe in his talent and upside and am willing to take the risk associated with his injury history. When healthy, he has produced at a high level. If you ever rank a player like Sanders this high, make sure you are protected. One reason I am risking this ranking is because I feel that DBs are easy to find during the year and they tend to come out of nowhere more than any other position, as was the case with Yeremiah Bell last year. This is the ultimate in risk/reward, and I do realize that the risk side may not be worth it for some people. I am almost certain that you can get Sanders much lower in most startup dynasty leagues.

Kenny Phillips, New York Giants
Phillips will start this year after being in a safety rotation as a rookie last year. He is a playmaking safety who is equally good in coverage and run defense. Gibril Wilson and Brian Dawkins have put up big numbers playing free safety in this scheme and Phillips has a lot more talent and athletic ability. I am ranking him 11th because of that talent, but there is risk because he may play more in coverage than Wilson or Dawkins have.

Patrick Chung, New England Patriots
Chung is a prototypical strong safety who will start at some point. I don't necessarily think it will be this year, but there is no question in my mind that he was drafted to play strong safety. He is a physical playmaker in the mold of former Patriot safety Rodney Harrison. I am very high on his talent…high enough to rank him 12th. I will not be surprised to see him at the top of the DB rankings someday.

Cedric Griffin, Minnesota Vikings
Cedric Griffin is an outstanding tackler and has had 80 or more solos in each of the last two years. He occasionally gets burned in coverage and only has three career picks and his other big play numbers leave a lot to be desired. His high tackle numbers justify a high DB2 ranking.

Troy Polamalu, Pittsburgh Steelers
Polamalu has battled injuries throughout his career, but he has produced solid overall numbers when healthy. His tackle numbers are low for a strong safety, but his elite playmaking ability makes up for it. He is ranked as a high DB2 because he puts up solid numbers when healthy, but be advised he is not the most consistent option at DB because of the below average tackle numbers.

Michael Griffin, Tennessee Titans
Griffin only had 55 solos last year, but he broke out as a playmaking safety and racked up seven picks and defended 11 passes. He was drafted as a CB, so the big play numbers should come as no surprise. I think the sky is the limit for Griffin and that is why he is ranked 15th. I am seeing more free safeties like Griffin rising up the fantasy rankings every year and it is largely because of their versatility.

Sean Jones, Philadelphia Eagles
Jones is an elite fantasy safety when healthy, but he may not even start for the Eagles this year. Jones only signed a one-year contract with the Eagles and since these are dynasty rankings, we can look beyond this year. He is a great buy-low-and-stash player if he doesn't earn a starting spot this year. Jones' potential backup situation this year and his past injury history are why he isn't ranked higher. Keep an eye on Jones during the year and don't be afraid to try and trade for him.

Atari Bigby, Green Bay Packers
I admit this is a risky ranking because much like Bob Sanders, Bigby always seems to be hurt. But Bigby has produced when healthy and I believe a high ranking is worth the risk. Bigby is expected to play closer to the line this year and could see more tackle opportunities, especially if Nick Barnett is slow to recover from his knee injury. Mid level DB2 types are not hard to find and I tend to take more risks with DBs because of that.

Chris Hope, Tennessee Titans
Hope has put up solid numbers in three of the last four years and in the year he didn't, he battled injuries for most of the year. In the three productive years, Hope averaged 71 solos, 24 assists, and four interceptions. With Albert Haynesworth gone, Hope should see more tackle opportunities. I ranked him as a mid level DB2 because he has only had one great year, but his consistency and situation make him a solid DB2.

Quintin Mikell, Philadelphia Eagles
Much like Yeremiah Bell, Mikell came out of nowhere last year and vaulted into the top ten DBs. He finished with 68 solos, 25 assists, two sacks, and picked off three passes. The addition of Sean Jones makes me a bit nervous because I think Jones is much more talented, but Mikell seems firmly entrenched as the starting strong safety. I could not rank him higher because I am not sold on his talent and because of Jones looking over his shoulder.

Michael Lewis, San Francisco 49ers
Lewis has been a solid fantasy DB for several years and constantly ranks near the top of the DB list in solo tackles. In five of the last six years (excluding 2006), Lewis has averaged 77 solos and 19 assists. He doesn't put up many big play numbers and there always seems to be reports that he will be benched because of his poor coverage skills. That is the only reason he is not ranked higher.

Cortland Finnegan, Tennessee Titans
Finnegan has had back-to-back solid seasons for the Titans and broke out in the playmaking department in 2008 with five picks and 17 PDs. His solos fell from 79 in 2007 to only 58 last year, but the Titans defense likely will be on the field more due to the departure of Albert Haynesworth and Finnegan figures to see more tackle opportunities. I don't necessarily think Finnegan is an elite talent and he isn't great at any particular thing, but he is solid enough to be a low end DB2.

DeAngelo Hall, Washington Redskins
Hall has been a solid fantasy DB and that is largely due to him not being a great cover corner. He gets burned at times and is just bad enough that offenses will target his side of the field. I ranked him as a low DB2 because he sees a lot of action, but I could not justify anything higher because he has been so bad at times that he has been benched.

Nick Collins, Green Bay Packers
Collins has had 60 or more solos in three of the past four years and added a career high seven picks last year. The light seemed to come on for Collins last year and it showed in his consistency and all around solid numbers. I am not sold enough on Collins to rank him any higher, but he should be a safe low end DB2 type for the foreseeable future.

Nate Clements, San Francisco 49ers
Clements had a terrible 2008 season and saw his numbers fall across the board. Prior to last year, Clemens averaged over 60 solos and four picks in the previous six seasons. I have him ranked at the bottom of the DB2 tier because of concerns about his play last year. I will note the low end of the DB2 tier is pretty much interchangeable.

Best of the Rest

Darrell Revis, New York Jets
Bernard Pollard, Kansas City Chiefs
Chinedum Ndukwe, Cincinnati Bengals
Louis Delmas, Detroit Lions
Brandon Meriweather, New England Patriots
Malcolm Jenkins, New Orleans Saints
Kerry Rhodes, New York Jets
William Moore, Atlanta Falcons
Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos
Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs
Chris Harris, Carolina Panthers
Leon Hall, Cincinnati Bengals