IDP Buy Low / Sell High - Week 1

Buy Low

DL Andre Carter, Washington Redskins: Carter had an off year in 2008, finishing with only 24 solos and four sacks. In the two previous years, Carter averaged 45 solos and eight sacks. I think part of his lack of production last season was because of nagging injuries and part because of a very conservative read-and-react scheme. That does not explain only having 24 solos in 16 games. Carter simply did not play well last year. The Redskins added Albert Haynesworth and are expected to be more aggressive this year, which should help Carter immensely. It is getting tougher and tougher to find quality 4-3 DEs who are capable of 40 solos/10 sacks. Carter is and has been drafted as a DL3 in many leagues. Carter is 30 years old and should have 2-3 years of solid play in front of him. A player with his upside and low cost is worth pursuing.

LB Lofa Tatupu, Seattle Seahawks: Tatupu is playing in a more aggressive scheme this year, is healthy, and I think the Seattle defense will be on the field a lot this year. That adds up to a lot of tackle opportunities for the defense as a whole and Tatupu in particular. He has a rookie in Aaron Curry playing next to him and there isn't much competition for tackles from the safeties. While Tatupu had an off year in 2008, he averaged 87 solos per year in the three previous seasons. He has been a mid-teens fantasy LB in the past and I think he will outdo that this year. He has been a low end LB2 in drafts and has been traded for low value in dynasty leagues. Tatupu is among the best early-season buy low candidates of all IDPs and I suggest you move fast while his value is this low.

LB Rocky McIntosh, Washington Redskins: McIntosh was on pace for 80 solos, three sacks, and three FFs 2 years ago before missing the last two games with a torn ACL. He was not fully recovered from his torn ACL last year and it showed in his lackluster play. It was similar to Chad Greenway's situation two years ago. It takes time for a player to get his range and speed back. He is dirt-cheap right now and is only 26 years old. The best buy lows are those with upside and a low price and McIntosh certainly fits the bill. I will not be surprised to see him break out this year and move into the LB2 tier.

DB Bob Sanders, Indianapolis Colts: Sanders is a stud DB when healthy and is capable of top ten fantasy numbers. The problem is he is rarely healthy. But finding a DB capable of top ten numbers is not easy and Sanders can be acquired right now for very little from owners who are frustrated with his constant injuries. If you have roster room, go ahead and grab a DB1 for peanuts and hope he can stay healthy. He is expected back in 2-3 weeks. If the price is low, does it matter if the trade doesn't pan out? There is very little risk and a huge reward if he can stay on the field.

DB Atari Bigby, Green Bay Packers: Bigby is another player who has battled injuries, albeit not to the degree Sanders has. Bigby has not even been drafted in some redraft leagues; that is how overlooked he is right now. You can literally pick him up for next to nothing right now. Bigby was a DB1 in 2007 in his only full season as a starter. This kind of upside for a low price is exactly what owners should be looking for. As with Sanders, use the injury issue to keep the price as low as possible.

DL Kevin Williams, Minnesota Vikings: Williams had a big 2008 season and finished as a DL2. In looking closer at his numbers, he earned about 20% of his fantasy numbers in a four-sack game against the Lions. Williams was a DL4 in his previous three seasons and that is where I see him finishing this year. Sell based on last years numbers and find a cheaper DL4 elsewhere. For those in leagues that separate DT from DE, I would hold Williams.

LB Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears: Urlacher only had 74 solos last season and for the second time in three years, he did not record a sack. I saw him play in preseason and he looked a step slow. He has name recognition that is more valuable than his value on your roster. I would look to move Urlacher if you can get a decent price, but only if you have a viable replacement on your roster. If you want to wait, you can probably get more in return after a big game or two.

LB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys: Ware had a huge season in 2008, finishing with career highs in solos with 69 and sacks with 20. It is hard to expect numbers like that again, but 60/15 is certainly within his reach. Numbers like that would place Ware into the mid to low LB2 tier. Some think of Ware as a LB1 and those owners are whom you should target.

DB Chris Gamble, Carolina Panthers: Gamble had 83 solos last year after averaging only 55 in his previous four seasons. I do not consider him an elite fantasy DB and that makes him a prime sell high candidate when combined with his stats last year. I think players like Gamble can be found on the waiver wire in most years. Sell based on last year's numbers.

DB Kerry Rhodes, New York Jets: Rhodes has not been a fantasy factor for the last two years and at some point, you need to choose whether or not to keep playing him. I see Rhodes as a high DB3 at best because I think he plays the Ed Reed role in new coach Rex Ryan's defense. Rhodes is another player who has name recognition that outweighs his true value. You may be able to command DB2 value for Rhodes in trade.