An Early Look At the Playoff Schedules

Posted 7/20 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

One often overlooked facet to a player's value is his playoff schedule, particularly Week 15 and 16, when most leagues play their conference championships and Super Bowls (if you play a Week 17 Super Bowl, change it immediately!). By no means should you bump a player significantly up your draft board because he has an advantageous playoff schedule, or drop him down because his playoff schedule looks rough. Gauging playoff strength of schedule before the season can be a futile exercise for many reasons:

Injuries - Injuries to the player, or key members of the situation surrounding the player can greatly change their value by December. This is especially true in the case of RBs that wear down.
Surprise Teams - Atlanta and Miami looked like cupcake matchups in August, but by October we all knew they were formidable teams
Implosions - Cleveland would have been considered at least a middling team last year entering the season, but it was clear that they would be a bottom dweller and easy matchup after the first month of the season.
Hot/Cold Teams - Arizona was this close to winning the Super Bowl last year, but they were worthless in Week 15 and 16 when they went cold after clinching the division early - which arguably brings up another reason that gauging the playoff schedule early can be a dicey proposition - playoff implications to games (or lack thereof) can change the quality of a matchup.

As you can see, the best-laid plans of teams gunning for a title can be destroyed a few weeks into the season. This is why fantasy GMs often wait until they are feeling comfortable about their playoff chances to make moves strictly based on the playoff schedule. By the time we hit October, we have a much better idea of where the potential fantasy explosions lie in Week 15 and 16. Still, I think it's not a terrible idea to use playoff schedule to break ties when it tilts strongly in one direction or the other. With that in mind, let's look at every teams matchups in Week 15 and 16 with an eye towards strength of schedule and of course, weather.

Arizona (@DET, STL)

We lead off with the fantasy yahtzee of the bunch, only because Arizona comes first alphabetically. Two indoor matchups against two of the worst teams in the league. I know Football Outsiders likes St. Louis, but I think both of these teams will still be struggling to hit .500 this year. Unless Arizona runs away with the division again, this schedule should yield big points for Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, and at least one of Wells/Hightower. It might be difficult to win your championship without a piece of the Cardinals offense. Of course, an injury to Warner could blow this theory out of the water.

Passing Grade: A+
Rushing Grade: A
Weather Grade: A+

Atlanta (@NYJ, BUF)

The Jets were one of the tougher run defenses last year, but that didn't stop Marshawn Lynch from gouging them in Week 15 last year. This is an acceptable schedule for Michael Turner, but Matt Ryan gets a slight ding for one outdoor game in the often windy Meadowlands.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: B-

Baltimore (CHI, @PIT)

Shiver. Not just because the possibility for cold weather in Pittsburgh in Week 16, but because these both promise to be defensive slugfests pitting top 5 rush defenses against each other on both accounts. Le'Ron McClain did muster 87 yards on the ground vs Pittsburgh
in Week 15 last year, but no touchdowns.

Passing Grade: C
Rushing Grade: F
Weather Grade: F

Buffalo (NE, @ATL)

On the plus side, both of these could turn into high-scoring games. On the minus side, one of the game is at home in Buffalo, where we often see some of the worst football weather in December.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: C

Carolina (MIN, @NYG)

OUCH. The Williams wall and another 2008 top 10 rush defense that got a lot better in the offseason. Still, quality fantasy backs like Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, and Matt Forte all had at least modest success against Minnesota last year, so don't swear off DeAngelo Williams based on this rough combo. The harsh run matchups could be great news for Steve Smith owners, but those Meadowlands winds could sink that idea.

Passing Grade: C
Rushing Grade: D
Weather Grade: C

Chicago (@BAL, MIN)

Another very tough combo and pair of games that look like knockdown, drag-out street fights. Forte averaged about 16 fantasy points a game against Minnesota last year, so he's already proven he still be a viable start against the Vikes. You can't love Cutler having a Week 16 game in Soldier Field, even if it is against a team that often forces its opponent to pass like crazy.

Passing Grade: C
Rushing Grade: F
Weather Grade: C

Cincinnati (@SD, KC)

A very easy draw against the pass, and one game in sunny California. This is another byproduct of the scheduling quirk that has all of the Bengals games against the Steelers and Ravens done by week 10.

Passing Grade: A
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: A-

Cleveland (@KC, OAK)

One game on the lake at home, which has produced some hellacious weather in December, and a game that promises to have top five draft pick implications on the line against KC. One bonus is that they play two of the three worst rush defenses from 2008.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: A
Weather Grade: C-

Dallas (@NO, @WAS)

A possible shoot-out against NO = good, but a likely close to the vest matchup at WAS = meh.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: C-
Weather Grade: B

Denver (OAK, @PHI)

The road game against Philly is a terrible draw, exacerbated by the possibility that Philly will be likely making a playoff push, Denver... not so much. The Raiders blew out the Broncos at Invesco last year, so I have no idea what to make of that matchup. Both games have possible weather issues.

Passing Grade: D
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: C-

Detroit (ARI, @SF)

As playoff schedules go, this one looks OK. San Francisco's defense is middle of the road, Arizona's is middling to poor, and both games should have no weather issues. The Lions will be breaking in Matthew Stafford by this time, but that won't affect Calvin Johnson's numbers if having "Wrong Way" Orlovsky in didn't last year.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: B+
Weather Grade: A

Green Bay (@PIT, SEA)

"At Pittsburgh" is the last thing you want to see on the schedule, and the easier matchup against Seattle is at Lambeau, where weather can always play a factor. Still, I'm not too worried about Aaron Rodgers because he proved he could be a good cold-weather QB last year, and Seattle was the worst team against the pass last year.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: C-
Weather Grade: D

Houston (@STL, @MIA)

One outstanding matchup, one decent, no weather worries. If you are targeting Steve Slaton in the late first, this should only encourage you.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: A

Indianapolis (@JAX, NYJ)

Peyton Manning passed all over Jacksonville when the Colts traveled there late last season, and the Jets were among the worst pass defenses in the league last year. This bodes well for Manning, Wayne, Clark, and Gonzalez.

Passing Grade: A-
Rushing Grade: C-
Weather Grade: A

Jacksonville (IND, @NE)

Both of these games could turn into shoot-outs, as long as the weather cooperates in Foxboro. MJD is a big presence in the passing game, so this is good for him, and of course, David Garrard.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: C

Kansas City (CLE, @CIN)

Neither of these matchups are very daunting, but late season games between teams going nowhere are unpredictable. You do have to like Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe's chances of having solid games, and Larry Johnson is always a better bet in games that the Chiefs should be able to keep close.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: A-
Weather Grade: B

Miami (@TEN, HOU)

No weather concerns, and the Titans are much easier draw without Albert Haynesworth. The Miami-Houston tilt last year was a 29-28 offensive bonanza.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: A

Minnesota (@CAR, @CHI)

Adrian Peterson had one of the best games of his short career at Soldier Field in 2007, so even though that looks tough on paper, it shouldn't discourage AD owners. We wouldn't expect too much from the Vikes passing game whether or not Brett Favre is wearing purple this year.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: C

New Orleans (DAL, TB)

Two games in the Superdome will give Drew Brees and that high-powered passing offense ideal conditions to operate in. Dallas and Tampa were two of the better pass defenses last year yardage-wise, but they were just middling when you look through the lens of TDs allowed.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: A+

New England (@BUF, JAX)

Neither opponent is a tough matchup, but Buffalo and Foxboro equal rolls of the dice in December when it comes to conditions that are suitable for the passing game. Complicating things is the fact that Tom Brady killed a lot of his fantasy teams playoff runs with a complete dud in a home game played in a mess at home vs. the Jets in 2007.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: D

NY Giants (@WAS, CAR)

Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward both had huge games late last year vs. Carolina. The Washington games were low scoring affairs controlled by the Giants throughout. Don't expect that much from Eli Manning - although you probably weren't anyway.

Passing Grade: C
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: C

NY Jets (ATL, @IND)

It's hard to like either of these games for the Jets offense even though neither team has a particularly tough defense. Both look like games where the burden will fall more on Kellen Clemens, or more likely, Mark Sanchez, than it will on the running game.

Rushing Grade: B-
Passing Grade: C-
Weather Grade: B-

Oakland (@DEN, @CLE)

I actually like Darren McFadden in both of these matchups, and Michael Bush to a lesser extent. McFadden had two TDs at Denver last year, and the weather at Cleveland will only encourage Oakland to lean on the running game and short passing game.

Passing Grade: B
Rushing Grade: A
Weather Grade: C-

Philadelphia (SF, DEN)

McNabb and the Eagles had two dominant wins late last year at home vs. Cleveland and Dallas. The 49ers and Broncos aren't going to be any tougher on the whole than that combo. Curiously, Brian Westbrook was quiet in both matchups, with only 129 total yards in the two games.

Passing Grade: A
Rushing Grade: B+
Weather Grade: B-

Pittsburgh (GB, BAL)

Home games in cold weather just reinforce Pittsburgh as the #1 D/ST this year. It's hard to like the prospects of Ben Roethlisberger or Willie Parker to have big games in either matchup.

Passing Grade: D
Rushing Grade: C-
Weather Grade: C-

San Diego (CIN, @TEN)

No weather concerns here, but neither defense is a pushover, either. Cincinnati was surprisingly tough on defense late last year, and Tennessee will at least be average to above average, even without Haynesworth.

Passing Grade: B-
Rushing Grade: B
Weather Grade: A

San Francisco (@PHI, DET)

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. You might need to bench Frank Gore in Week 15, but you also might ride him to the title in Week 16.

Passing Grade: C
Rushing Grade: C+
Weather Grade: B

St. Louis (HOU, @ARI)

Here's your surprise great schedule. IF Steven Jackson stays healthy, he could easily have 150+ total yard games with multiple TDs because both Houston and Arizona will force the St. Louis offense to open things to up to make these games competitive, and they'll both be played indoors. Donnie Avery could also be a good wideout because these teams don't have a shutdown corner between them.

Passing Grade: A-
Rushing Grade: B+
Weather Grade: A+

Tampa Bay (@SEA, @NO)

One game in perfect conditions that could be a shoot-out, one that could be played in a driving rain and be a slugfest. Neither opponent's defense should put fear in any Antonio Bryant, Derrick Ward or Earnest Graham owners, but you would like to see at least one home matchup for the Bucs, who played much better at Raymond James last year.

Passing Grade: B+
Rushing Grade: B-
Weather Grade: B+

Tennessee (MIA, SD)

Two home games against teams that are much weaker against the pass than the run, but who would you target trust from the Titans passing game? If Chris Johnson gets more involved as a receiver, he'll be fine for these matchups.

Passing Grade: A
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: A

Washington (NYG, DAL)

At least the games are at home. Neither matchup looks good for Clinton Portis, and the Washington passing game is far from prolific.

Passing Grade: C-
Rushing Grade: C
Weather Grade: B

Bottom Line

If you are so inclined to use playoff schedule in draft decisions:

Break ties in favor of them because of playoff schedule:

QB: Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger
RB: Steven Jackson, Kevin Smith, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Donnie Avery, Antonio Bryant
TE: Dallas Clark, Brent Celek, Bo Scaife, Randy McMichael

Break ties against them because of playoff schedule

QB: Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Clinton Portis, Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ray Rice, Ryan Grant, Knowshon Moreno
WR: Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Devin Hester
TE: Tony Scheffler, Chris Cooley Heath Miller