From the Gut
Updated 8/4 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive for Footballguys.com
We're big on numbers here at Footballguys, but there are times when you just know something is going to happen. You can feel it in your guy. With that line of thought in mind, we asked our staffer Sigmund Bloom to fill us in on his gut.
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, New England - We lost the opportunity to determine whether the "real Tom Brady" would have numbers closer to his record-breaking 2007 or his historical numbers when his season was ended in Week 1. Judging by Matt Cassel's 2008, people who take a chance on Brady before we see how his knee looks in regular season action will be rewarded. He's still the most likely QB to lead the position in fantasy scoring in 2009, and do it by a large margin. Brady is easily worth a second-round pick in 6-point-per-passing-TD leagues.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - Rodgers might not finish #2 again with a healthy Peyton and Brady, but he's a bona fide fantasy stud QB. He plays in an offense stocked with talented receivers that does not lean on a running back in the red zone, he showed he's a threat to run it in close to the goal line (to the tune for four rushing TDs), and he showed he can play through a tough injury when he only missed two series after separating his throwing shoulder.
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati - All of the people that want a secure stud QB will have locked up a top 7 or 8 option by the time Palmer comes off the board, which will be a boon to fantasy GMs that prefer to wait on QB. The risk of his elbow being off is more than outweighed by his track record of three consecutive top 10 finishes (including a #1 and #4) at QB coming into 2008, especially now that he has declared that it is 100% healthy. The fact that Bengals are done with the Ravens and Steelers after Week 10 is gravy.
David Garrard, Jacksonville - Remember when we all thought Garrard was a budding fantasy QB1 last summer? He did finish in the top 12 QBs, despite a two-point-per-game drop-off from 2007. That decrease in production is perfectly explainable by a cheesecloth offensive line. The Jags addressed the issue by taking the most NFL-ready pass blocking LT in the first round, a possible stalwart RT in the second, and oh yeah, they added Torry Holt in free agency, the best WR the Jags have had since Jimmy Smith. Garrard's low profile is the best reason to wait on QB this year.
Kyle Orton, Denver - Predicting success for Orton isn't outlandish if you go back and watch his games in the first half of 2008 - he was one of the best QBs in the league. Now he gets to play in a system that produced the surprise QB1 in 2008, with two outstanding young WRs, and he's on one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Now that he's been named the clear starter before training camp has even begun, he's an easy choice as your backup QB. If you take a stud early and he pans out, Orton is terrific trade bait. If you wait and take a Cutler/Palmer/Schaub/Garrard as your #1, Orton is a great high upside alternative.
Trent Edwards, Buffalo - On one hand, Edwards is playing behind a line with five new starters, he is learning a new offense, and he has been injury prone throughout his football career. On the other hand, he gets to throw to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans, and no-huddle looks are being mixed into the Bills offense by Turk Schonert. Edwards is worth picking as a high-upside backup because you can always drop him for the next Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, or Shaun Hill if it's clear early that this Bills offense isn't going to work any better than last year's.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta - I'm as optimistic about Ryan as anyone, but taking him as your QB1 is over-drafting him. He played some of his worst football in December and January, and he only threw for 16 TDs last year. His numbers and level of play should go up this year, but Michael Turner is still the first option in the red zone, and Mike Mularkey is still a good old power-running type offensive coordinator. He'll go too high in every draft to be on my team.
Matt Schaub, Houston - If you're dead set on being one of the last owners to take a QB, make Schaub your target and follow up with Garrard in the next round. Schaub puts up top 5-7 numbers when he's healthy, just know that odd are that you're only going to get 2/3 of a season from him. Last year, his missed time came at the expense of what some thought was a cheap shot to the knee, so maybe this is the year that he stays healthy.
Running Backs
Michael Turner, Atlanta - If you're sitting in the four- or five-hole of the first round, pray that your leaguemates let Turner fall to you. There just aren't that many backs left in the league that are automatic options inside the 10 - that's why he scored in eight of the last nine games. He could be even better this year if Matt Ryan avoids the sophomore slump, and he still found ways to score when Ryan was struggling down the stretch. Talk up the reduced carries and Gonzalez vulturing TDs - for every TD Gonzalez steals, he'll help create one with his blocking, distraction of the safeties, and ability to keep drives alive with clutch third down catches.
Chris Johnson, Tennessee - All signs point to Johnson being more involved in the offense this year - making him the easy target if you are picking late in the first round. The Titans coaches have all indicated that they will work him more in his second season, especially after his dominant 100-total yard quarter and a half vs. the Ravens in the playoffs before his injury. This will be the season he joins the fantasy elite for good.
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina - It's unreasonable to expect six touchdowns over 30 yards from any running back, especially one that doesn't get more than 300 carries. Williams high TD and big play rate will be just as hard to reproduce as the Panthers standout season that allowed them to pound the ball with impunity. Taking him in the early first is a classic example of chasing last year's stats.
LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego - I'm not sure how you can pin your team's hope to a running back that finished each of the last two seasons on the shelf with an injury. The Chargers would be nuts to not give Darren Sproles 10-12 touches a game after what he did for them in the playoffs, and it would help avoid a replay of a discouraged Tomlinson sitting on the bench. Remember the Chargers gave LT a "take or leave it" negotiated contract with less money in 2010 and 2011, and they were prepared to release him if he didn't take it. All this after they franchised Sproles. Let someone else draft the name and ignore the trend.
Pierre Thomas, New Orleans - It's impossible to ignore Thomas' production down the stretch - helping many teams win titles after being a free agent in a lot of leagues in October. He dodged a bullet when the Saints didn't draft a running back in the first round, and now even if they sign a back, it will be a vet on his victory lap around the league. The RB1 upside is more than worth the cost of a non-premium pick.
Donald Brown, Indianapolis - Joseph Addai will begin the season as the starter, but Brown will get enough touches for the Colts to see that he's the more dynamic, powerful, and explosive back. Eventually Addai will get dinged, and in those weeks, Brown will be a top 10 RB. Brown is the best RB Indianapolis has had since Edgerrin James was in his prime, and he could easily produce at old Edge's level if he's given a chance.
Ray Rice/Willis McGahee/Le'Ron McClain, Baltimore - Le'Ron McClain is back at fullback and Willis McGahee had another couple of surgeries. If McGahee didn't have such a high cap number, he would probably have his walking papers, and he's still going to have to win playing time by staying healthy and stay on coach John Harbaugh's good side. Rice is the odds-on favorite to get the most touches at RB on one of the best running teams in the league. McGahee might have some sporadic strong games like he did in 2008, but he should be traded away as soon as he gets hot. Somebody in your league will still draft McClain on last year's numbers (and he could still get them if Ravens realize the error of the ways when they can't salt away a few games without McClain's help and he doesn't plow open holes like Lorenzo Neal). Take Rice if you're going to take a Raven RB.
Larry Johnson, Kansas City - Johnson is trying to endear himself to the new regime, but rumors persisted that he would get cut right up until draft weekend. He's not going to be in the team's future plans, and there's no telling when they'll pull the ripcord on phasing him out in 2009 because they're in the middle of a rebuilding effort. The team will be running a lot of plays out of a shotgun spread formation, which fits Jamaal Charles game as much as LJ's. Someone in your league will draft him too high on the memory of his glory days, which are too far in the rear view mirror to draft him as a starter.
Tim Hightower, Arizona - We tend to overreact in both directions when it comes to young RBs. When Hightower was the starter last year, some flocked to him as the next coming of a stud RB even though his instincts and efficiency left something to be desired. Now that Chris Wells was drafted, Hightower has turned into an afterthought. Between Wells injury history at Ohio State and Hightower being the better RB for passing downs and sets (and still the official starter), he still has potential to be an RB you want in your lineup at some point in the 2009 season.
Fred Taylor, New England - The Patriots track record at getting the last few good seasons out of veteran running backs is too good to ignore. Taylor still looked strong last year, averaging 4.8 yards on his carries in the second half of the season once the Jags line got out of crisis mode. Taylor will be a good bet for 80-100 yards and a TD in any game the Pats are favored to win (which should be most of them).
Julius Jones, Seattle - Jones hasn't looked like a stud since W's first term. I can't for the life of me figure out why Jim Mora Jr. and Tim Ruskell didn't address RB in the draft, but T.J. Duckett's old backfield mate Warrick Dunn is still a free agent, and they'll likely be looking him up if they roll into the regular season with Jones as the starter. If you do end up with Jones on your roster, move him on the first good game, just like the wise people did last year.
Jamal Lewis, Cleveland - You will have to suffer through lots of mediocre weeks just to catch the few times Lewis scores a TD or gets over 100 yards (which he failed to do once last year). He'll be the kind of player you can't cut because he's a starting RB, but you can't play, because his offense is broken down on the side of the road.
Michael Bush, Oakland - Week 17 stud RBs are always good to snag late in your draft. In 2005, you would have gotten Willie Parker. Last year, you would have gotten Pierre Thomas. Bush ran for 177 yards and a pair of TDs in Week 17 vs the Bucs. Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas have both been injury prone, and Bush could get goal line carries even if that pair stays healthy. Talented RB + team that loves to run + strong finish to the previous season = RB you want on your roster.
Tashard Choice, Dallas - First of all, Choice is not a third-stringer, he's a backup to Marion Barber. Felix Jones' role will stay the same regardless of Barber's health. Second of all, Choice looked like a starting quality NFL RB last year, and he did it against the murderer's row of the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. Very rarely can you get a RB that you KNOW will produce if he gets on the field as late as Choice as going in drafts. Must draft late if you take Barber in the first or second.
Ladell Betts, Washington - How quickly we forget that many people rode Betts to championships in 2006. Clinton Portis finished the season with five different injuries last year. If you take Portis early and don't spent a pick on Betts, you'll be sorry by Thanksgiving. There's a lot of talk about Westbrook and Tomlinson being close to the precipice, but Portis is looking over it himself, and Betts has been getting good reviews all spring.
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo - I'm a big fan "Dis Mah Son", but he has a lot going against this year - a three game suspension, the coaches insistence on playing Fred Jackson more, and an offensive line with five new starters. If he falls to the fifth, he's probably still worth it in non-PPR leagues, but Lynch will be fighting an uphill battle to be a stud and true feature back this year.
Darren McFadden, Oakland - If he stays healthy, McFadden will be the Oakland version of Reggie Bush. Just pencil him in as your fourth round pick if you play in a start three WRs PPR league. It will allow you to take two stud WRs early. McFadden should catch 50+ balls and get a lot of red zone love. Just make sure you hedge him with a late pick of Bush.
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh - Folks, Parker is still the starting running back for the Super Bowl champs. He has been on a mission all offseason. He's another great RB to target if you decide to take stud WRs early.
Kevin Jones, Chicago - You don't automatically think of Jones on the list of talented backups who would be feature backs if the guy ahead of them went down, but Jones is definitely near the top because he's healthy again. If you take Forte early, don't get cut, lock in your production with a late pick of Jones.
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay - I'm not really sure why Graham is getting overlooked, but take advantage of it. He has played more than well enough to have the trust of the Bucs coaches, and should get something close to a 50/50 split with Derrick Ward, who is going much earlier in drafts. Ward has had durability problems in his career, so if one of these two backs is going to go down, chances are it will be Ward.
Wide Receivers
Eddie Royal, Denver - Let's see, Brandon Marshall is coming off hip surgery, meaning he'll be behind the curve in learning the McDaniels offense, Royal was clearly just learning routes and reading coverages last year, and McDaniels offense has a role for a quick WR that works close to the line of scrimmage. Should anyone be surprised if the Virginia Tech product catches over 100 balls this year?
Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh - I know we don't usually want to put too much stock in a Super Bowl performance, but didn't it just feel like Holmes staking his claim to be the Steelers #1 wideout? Nate Washington got an inordinate amount of the deep targets last year. If half of them go to Holmes, he should add at least 300 yards and four TDs to his modest 2008 stats. If most of them go to Holmes, he could be a fantasy WR1 in 2009.
Terrell Owens/Lee Evans, Buffalo - For the first time, TO was not signed to a long-term deal when he hit free agency. For the first time, TO's new team does not have a QB with a big arm or the scrambling and improvisation ability to keep plays alive and find Owens downfield. For the first time in a long time, TO will not be a fantasy WR1 that you leave in your lineup every week.
Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis - Gonzalez has converted over 70% of his targets into catches. He's gained Peyton Manning's trust on third down and key game situations. This is clearly his year to step up into the 75-to 80-catch, 1,100- to 1,200-yard, and 6-to 8-TD strong WR2 range. He might even out-produce Reggie Wayne. Why isn't there more optimism about a strong technician entering his third year and starting for the first time in a top passing offense?
Roy Williams, Dallas - Williams has put it all together to have a good fantasy season exactly once. He didn't even look like a starting quality NFL wide receiver in his first partial season with the Cowboys, showing no chemistry with Tony Romo and rarely flashing the talent that made him a top 10 draft pick. We already know that Jason Witten is the apple of Tony Romo's eye, and whether it's injuries or underachieving, Williams is unlikely to change that this year.
Malcom Floyd, San Diego - How many receivers could post 27/465/4 on only 37 targets? Every time Floyd gets on the field with Philip Rivers, good things happen. He's over the collapsed lung that prematurely ended his 2008 campaign. You don't need to draft Floyd, but add him immediately if Vincent Jackson or Chris Chambers get hurt.
Vincent Jackson, San Diego - It looks like Jackson will avoid a suspension for his January DWI arrest, so you can safely target him in the 5th or 6th round. He was a playing like a #1 last year, and he's in a contract year.
Josh Morgan, San Francisco - After showing signs of being a future star last year, Josh Morgan is dead to most fantasy players right now because Michael Crabtree is lining up at his split end position. The 49ers will eventually come to their senses and get both of their two most talented wideouts on the field even if it's not the plan right now. If Morgan hadn't hurt his groin early last season, his value this season wouldn't seem so debatable, because he would have been one of the top rookie wide receivers along with Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson.
Greg Camarillo, Miami - By all accounts, Camarillo is way ahead of schedule in his return from an ACL tear. He has a bond with Chad Pennington, who loves wide receivers to be where they're supposed to be and not drop the ball. Camarillo was on pace to have over 80 catches before his injury last year, so don't be surprised if he does it this year. Spend a late pick on him in PPR leagues that start three WRs.
Devin Hester, Chicago - Right now, it's hard to imagine anyone but Greg Olsen being the leading receiver in Chicago, but that doesn't mean that Hester won't be the biggest fantasy force. He has never had a QB who can keep plays alive and heave it long from just about any platform, including on the run. John Crist, editor of the Bear Report magazine, told us that Jay Cutler has been making an extra effort to get the ball to Hester in spring OTAs. At worst, Hester will be like former Bear Bernard Berrian - a player you can plug in and hope for the 80-yard TD that comes five or six times in the season.
Lance Moore, New Orleans - Moore finished 15th among WRs in PPR leagues and 13th in non-PPR leagues, despite barely having a role in the offense for the first two games. He is Drew Brees' version of Wes Welker - a shifty wide receiver who is very tough and understands how to sit down in the soft spot of a zone defense. He's a steal at his current ADP of WR30 and 84th overall, even with the shoulder injury, which Moore says should be 100% by the second or third week of camp.
Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati - We know Ochocinco won't be as bad as he was last year, but will he be as good as he was in the past? The offensive line that got Carson Palmer hurt last year (a major contributing factor to Ochocinco's decline) hasn't been improved greatly, so how will Ochocinco have the time to get open deep? Palmer seems to gush about Chris Henry (who he called Randy Moss Jr.) at least once a week. Laveranues Coles is there to soak up T.J. Houshmandzadeh's short and intermediate targets. Even though Ochocinco was so bad that he rode the fantasy pine for most of the year, he is still not a great value because of name recognition. I'll pass.
Tight Ends
Zach Miller, Oakland - Miller was often marooned near the line of scrimmage to block on passing downs, he was in the most anemic passing attack in the league, and he still managed to be sixth among TEs in yardage last year. With the natural progression of Miller and fellow 2007 draftee JaMarcus Russell entering their third season (and accompanying growth in the Raider passing game), Miller could easily approach 1,000 yards and greatly increase his TD total from one (remember Jason Witten had one TD the year before he was the #1 fantasy TE) this season. The addition of blocking TE Brandon Myers through the draft certainly can't hurt either.
Dustin Keller, NY Jets - After Laveranues Coles left for greener pastures, it was widely assumed that the Jets would do something about their #2 WR situation. Surely they wouldn't leave it up to David Clowney, Brad Smith, and Chansi Stuckey to compete for the job? They did, and that can only mean that Keller will graduate to being the #2 target in the pecking order, even though he is an oversized slot receiver masquerading as a TE.
Owen Daniels, Houston - When your team drafts two TEs during the same offseason that you don't show up for OTAs and demand an extension, it's not a great sign for your future with the team. The Texans drafted a solid two-way traditional inline TE in Anthony Hill, and a very talented H-back/slot receiver in the mold of Daniels in James Casey. Expect a step back from Daniels career high receptions and yards totals in 2008.
Randy McMichael, St. Louis - McMichael is set to be the redwood in the forest of St. Louis passing game targets, and he's already caught the eye of new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. With Donnie Avery best suited to be a deep threat, and two unproven wideouts competing to start on the other side of Avery, Marc Bulger should lean on McMichael this year. He was on pace to catch 44/556 last year, and that should be his floor for this season now that Torry Holt has moved on.
Brent Celek, Philadelphia - Celek caught only 27 passes and one touchdown all year, but in the crunch time of the playoffs, he was one of Donovan McNabb's favorite targets. Celek caught 19 passes for 151 yards and three touchdowns on only 22 targets. Now, L.J. Smith is a Raven and rookie Cornelius Ingram is still recovering from a 2008 ACL tear, so Celek should be unopposed for TE targets, which could make him one of the surprise fantasy TEs of the year.
Jason Witten, Dallas - If you're going to take a TE early, make it Witten. A painful rib injury made Witten's stats more pedestrian last year, take out the four games that he was severely limited midseason (he only totaled four catches for 53 yards in that span), and he was on pace for a 100/1,200 season, which will probably be good enough for #1 TE in PPR leagues by a good margin this year now that Tony Gonzalez is in a more balanced and talented offense than KC's. That level of production may be closer to Witten's floor than his ceiling since Terrell Owens has left town. Witten has a great chance to break Tony Gonzalez's record for catches in a season by a tight end of 102.