To Handcuff Or Not To Handcuff - Top 10 RBs

  Posted 5/28 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

The question of whether to handcuff your starting fantasy RBs to their backups is an overlooked, but sometimes crucial, decision to the success of your fantasy team. Some people automatically protect their investment and even reach for the backup to lock up a team's running game. Some value backup RBs, just not the backups to the starting RBs on their team. With more and more teams adopting two- and three-back backfields, handcuffing can even give you multiple starters when the matchups are right. We can attempt to determine whether a handcuff is worth it (or even possible) by looking at five factors:

1. Clarity - How clear is the situation behind the starter/primary back?
2. Price - What will it cost to secure a handcuff, and what will it cost to basically secure a Team RB?
3. Quality - How talented is the backup? What is their track record?
4. Situation - Is it a plug and play running game, or does the starter's talent create most of his value?
5. Necessity - How important is it to get the handcuff to THIS starter? How likely is significant action for the backup at some point during the season?

Let's break down the handcuff RBs for the top 10 fantasy backs through this lens, in order of the ADP of the starter:

Adrian Peterson (ADP RB1)

• Clarity - No question here, it's Chester Taylor.
• Price - After a 16-game season for All Day, Taylor's ADP has fallen to a modest mid-10th round pick (ADP - 115). Backs with similar ADP include Rashard Mendenhall and Ahmad Bradshaw.
• Quality - Taylor has proven he's a borderline starting quality back in the past. He's a great pass catcher and has been a stud when Peterson has missed time.
• Situation - Minnesota finished No. 5 in rushing yards per game last year. They are a run-first team with a great defense - one of the best rushing attacks in the league.
• Necessity - Peterson hadn't played a full season in a while before last year. Taylor becomes a fantasy RB1 any time Peterson is out. High necessity.

The Verdict - Take Taylor in the early ninth if you own Peterson, it's a slam dunk win-win. Either you get 16 games out of Peterson, or you get most of his production when he misses time. You also get a strong flex/RB2 play in the two Lions matchups and maybe more if the QB play improves in Minnesota.

Michael Turner (ADP RB2)

• Clarity - Jerious Norwood is the primary backup, but remember the names Jason Snelling and Thomas Brown if Turner goes down - the Falcons probably wouldn't give Norwood the full workload.
• Price - Even though he's one of the most talented backs that isn't starting, Norwood's ADP is cheap at a late-10th (ADP - 118). Backs with similar ADP include Fred Jackson and Fred Taylor.
• Quality - Norwood can take it the distance from anywhere on the field, and he's averaged 5.9 YPC on almost 300 career carries.
• Situation - The Falcons returned to a run-first attack under Mike Mularkey. They finished second in the league in rushing, due in part to Norwood's effectiveness as a change of pace.
• Necessity - Turner is built to last with a lot of tread left on his tires, and he was just as strong at the end of his first season as a starter as he was at the beginning. Low necessity.

The Verdict - Since Turner seems like the kind of back that rarely takes the worst of a collision and it's unclear whether Norwood would get significantly more touches in the event of a Turner injury, your decision on whether to draft Norwood should have nothing to do with whether your draft started with Turner.

Maurice Jones-Drew (ADP RB3)

• Clarity - As clear as mud. Greg Jones is a good runner, but he's been even better as a lead blocker, and he rarely got to touch the ball last year. Chauncey Washington was a late-round pick last year who didn't play up to his talent in college. Rashad Jennings was a late-round pick this year who a lot of us had in the third or fourth round before the draft. Any of them could be the player Jacksonville turns to if MJD goes down.
• Price - A last round pick for any of them.
• Quality - Jones is a big bruiser in the Brandon Jacobs mold and could be a stud if he ever gets the chance. Washington and Jennings are unknowns.
• Situation - Jacksonville's vaunted running game took a big hit when their interior line was decimated last year, but they should bounce back this year.
• Necessity - MJD was surprisingly durable last year through some lower leg injuries in the second half of the season last year, but many of invoking the name of Marion Barber to remind us that limited duty studs don't always hold up as workhorses. Mid-level necessity.

The Verdict - There's no need to handcuff anyone to MJD right now, but if Jennings continues to impress through training camp, he might be worth a late-round pick whether or not you own MJD.

Matt Forte (ADP RB4)

• Clarity - Kevin Jones was re-signed in one of the quietest offseason deals of the year, and he should be the primary backup. Garrett Wolfe has looked overwhelmed, and the other Adrian Peterson is strictly a special teamer/third-down back type.
• Price - Kevin Jones is not even in the Top 250 right now.
• Quality - Remember when we all thought Jones was going to be one of THE stud RBs? We've seen plenty of RBs come all the way back from multiple injuries, so we shouldn't be shocked if Jones is a viable back again.
• Situation - Chicago had a lot of trouble opening holes for Forte last year, but he's a great pass catcher. The addition of Jay Cutler should only help.
• Necessity - Forte absorbed a ton of punishment, and while there's no reason to think he's fragile, he only had one season with that kind of workload in college - his senior year. No one will be surprised if he breaks down this year. Mid-level necessity.

The Verdict - Unless your league's benches are so short that you'd be forgoing a Top 50 to 55 back to take Jones, why not spend the late pick and roster spot to hedge Forte? If you never use Jones that means you got full value out of Forte - another win-win set up by drafting your top RB's handcuff.

Steven Jackson (ADP RB5)

• Clarity - Good luck figuring this one out. Antonio Pittman has been disappointing. Kenneth Darby seems like a third-down back at most. Chris Ogbonnaya is versatile and has good size, but he's uninspiring. Sam Gado might even have something to say about this by the end of training camp.
• Price - Every RB not named Jackson on the Rams roster is going undrafted.
• Quality - There's a reason every RB not named Jackson on the Rams roster is going undrafted.
• Situation - A team and offense stuck in neutral is not a great place for a backup RB to notch good numbers when they get in the lineup.
• Necessity - Jackson has missed significant time in each of the last two seasons, and that screams out for a handcuff. High necessity.

The Verdict - I'd recommend a handcuff, but I have no idea who to recommend. If you draft Jackson, watch the depth chart closely and be ready to pounce, but you should also know that the plan to replace Jackson has changed during the month he has been out in each of the last two seasons.

DeAngelo Williams (ADP RB6)

• Clarity - Carolina has close to a true RBBC, I'm not even sure I'd call Jonathan Stewart a backup.
• Price - Stewart will cost you an early-fifth (ADP - 49), the most expensive handcuff in fantasy football. Backs with similar ADP include Larry Johnson and Darren McFadden, who have almost as many questions, but should get more consistent workloads than Stewart.
• Quality - Stewart is arguably better than at least half of the starting RBs in the league. If Williams suffers a serious injury he's an instant Top 10 fantasy back with uberstud potential.
• Situation - The No. 3 rushing attack in the league is a power-running force of nature.
• Necessity - Williams suffered a serious leg injury in college but hasn't had major durability problems in the NFL. If anything, Stewart is the more likely RB to get injured based on his record.

The Verdict - Sure, there were five weeks last year that you would have been happy to have both guys in your lineup, but everything came together for Carolina, who probably won't be as dominant this year. Stewart is a more attractive pick in leagues with a flex, but that's still a steep price to pay for a guy that you can't trust in your lineup in any given week.

Chris Johnson (ADP RB7)

• Clarity - LenDale White is thunder to Chris Johnson's lightning, but Javon Ringer is a good back in his own right. It wouldn't be surprising to see Ringer get a lot of Johnson's work if the starter went down, meaning White wouldn't have a big spike in value.
• Price - White will only cost you an early-seventh (ADP - 75) - a pick after all of the strong QB/WR/TE are gone - not bad for a guy who finished as RB19 last year. The problem is that White really maxed out his fantasy value during an exceptional year for the Titans, and there's a lot of talk that Johnson will get more work this year. So White justifying that ADP is not a given. Backs with similar ADP include Cedric Benson and Donald Brown - much better bets to pay off in the seventh.
• Quality - I feel confident that there are at least a dozen backups who could have done more with White's touches than he did. He's lost some weight and he's in a contract year, so maybe he will look like the back he was at USC again; but I wouldn't count on it.
• Situation - Tennessee won't be the force (No. 7 in rushing) they were with Albert Haynesworth leading the defense, but they'll still be one of the better running teams in the league.
• Necessity - Johnson sprained his ankle in the playoff game vs. Baltimore, but otherwise he stayed healthy in his rookie year. Low necessity.

The Verdict - Between doubts about White's role growing in Johnson's absence because of Ringer's presence and doubts about White's talent, this is a pass.

Brian Westbrook (ADP RB8)

• Clarity - LeSean McCoy is the best-suited RB the Eagles have ever had to replace Westbrook's talents. In addition to being a fullback, Leonard Weaver is a great weapon as a runner and receiver, but McCoy would probably get the lion's share of the touches if (when) Westbrook misses time.
• Price - McCoy is going in the 11th (ADP - 125), after most of the high upside backups. You would only have to forgo taking someone like Fred Taylor or Jerious Norwood to get McCoy.
• Quality - McCoy came out early, so his body might not be ready for a consistent NFL pounding. However, in a short stint as the starter, there's no reason he couldn't perform at 70 to 80 percent of Westbrook's level of play.
• Situation - If McCoy got Westbrook's touches in the passing game (McCoy is a good receiver), he could be a similar engine in a high-quality offense.
• Necessity - Westbrook has never played all 16 games in a season. You do the math.

The Verdict - For once, Westbrook has a clear backup who is a similar type of talent, and he's very cheap. Why play with fire by leaving Westbrook unprotected?

Frank Gore (ADP RB9)

• Clarity - DeShaun Foster, was, well, DeShaun Foster, so the 49ers went out and drafted Glen Coffee in the third round. Early reports are good, and if Coffee keeps it up, he'll be the clear backup by September.
• Price - Coffee is going undrafted in most leagues.
• Quality - I wasn't a huge fan of Coffee at Alabama because he seemed to go down on first contact too often, but he runs with the speed and urgency to bust off huge gains if the hole is there.
• Situation - The 49ers offense has sputtered in the Alex Smith era, and Smith is forcing yet another QB battle in training camp. Gore has had a lot of fantasy value through the lean years because he's a great receiver, but you can't say the same thing about Coffee.
• Necessity - Gore goes all out, and he's missed games each of the last two years because of that playing style. However, he hasn't suffered a serious injury in four NFL seasons after going down with two major knee injuries in college.

The Verdict - Coffee isn't on anyone's radar yet. So instead of drafting him, you can probably wait to pick him up after your kicker/defense byes have passed. Be ready to change your plans if he has a great preseason.

Steve Slaton (ADP RB10)

• Clarity - Gary Kubiak called Ryan Moats and Chris Brown his 2a and 2b, and like his mentor, Mike Shanahan, Kubiak is panning for gold among undrafted free agents with the signing of Arian Foster, a power back, and Jeremiah Johnson, who runs a lot like Slaton. Kubiak has shown a willingness to switch things up when the backfield is unstable, so this one could be a moving target.
• Price - None of the guys are getting drafted right now, and they shouldn't until things get clearer.
• Quality - Moats has decent talent, Johnson has long speed, Foster will work in short yardage, and Chris Brown has been the best of bunch - when healthy.
• Situation - Houston has made players like Wali Lundy, Ron Dayne, Chris Taylor, and Darius Walker have fantasy relevance over the last few years, so you know it's a plug and play system.
• Necessity - Slaton stayed healthy in college and in his rookie season, so there's no reason to think he'll go down. Low necessity

The Verdict - The waiver wire is the only way to play this one unless Johnson or Foster just blow out the competition in training camp. While rostering a Houston back waiting for Slaton to go down is a risky proposition, jumping on any back on the roster if he does get hurt is a good strategy because of the track record of fantasy success from no-name backs in Houston in the Kubiak era.