Individual Defensive Player Tiers - Linebackers

Posted 7/27 by Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This is the second of a three-part series in which we'll take a critical look inside our rankings at each IDP position. You can find the first part, which discussed defensive line tiers, here. In this installment, we'll examine the splits and tiers in our linebacker rank lists and how you might be able to leverage those tiers into a solid draft strategy. To see our full rankings and those of all our IDP staffers, check out our rankings page here.

The Gold Standard

Bramel: This is the most interesting season in recent memory for me at the linebacker position. There are a number of interesting new trends and challenges to long held IDP wisdom. The Tampa-2 is falling out of favor, with hybrid and 3-4 fronts becoming all the rage. All of it affects the production of the league's linebackers. Although Sig and I were mostly in agreement during our DL discussion, I'm betting our opinions will diverge early and often in this conversation.

I think both of us will agree that Patrick Willis and Jon Beason belong in the Gold Standard tier, with Willis likely to be the consensus top overall IDP at any position. While I certainly won't argue with the reasoning behind the consensus, I'm throwing a wrench into the works immediately. It's not that I don't think Willis or Beason are great draft picks. On the contrary, I think both have 110 solo tackle potential. Rather, I couldn't be any higher on Barrett Ruud this season and am putting my money where my keyboard is. Ruud is my top overall IDP this year.

Why Ruud? It's a combination of talent, scheme and surrounding cast. First, while it took Ruud longer than many expected to crack the Bucs' starting lineup, it wasn't a lack of talent that held him back. He proved himself a big tackle producer immediately upon starting, and only a nagging knee injury has slowed his numbers in two seasons as a starter. Second, the new defensive scheme to be installed by Jim Bates is extremely MLB friendly. Long time readers of FBGs have heard this argument two seasons ago when Bates took over in Denver and made D.J. Williams his MLB. It's a 100 solo tackle season waiting to happen. Finally, the transition at OLB and safety in Tampa Bay looks likely to leave Ruud little competition for tackles. I believe Ruud has 120 solo tackle potential in 2009. If your leaguemates jump at Willis and Beason early in your draft, wait the extra round and snag Ruud. You won't be disappointed.

As I see it, there are a host of linebackers who could finish as the top overall linebacker this season. But my top tier, which consists of the safest options with the highest floor, reads Ruud, Willis, Beason. With luck, you can go stud DL - Ruud - stud DL. If not - and you may not be able to pull that off given the consensus love Ruud is getting in our staff rankings - there will be plenty of value at this position in later rounds.

Bloom: Jene, I agree with you that talking Willis and Beason is boring. They are going to be among the top three IDPs taken in every league, and they are going to justify those picks. Willis could make everyone who takes him #1 off the board still look like a genius because he played through leg and rib injuries last year. With good health, he could return to stratospheric level of production he attained in his rookie year.

I also agree that Ruud has explosive potential, #1 overall potential in the Jim Bates scheme. I have him at #3 behind Willis and Beason. If he doesn't go in the top three LBs, that's a sign that your league doesn't have enough access to FBG. I do have one more LB in the "Gold Standard" tier, and he could be the biggest value among the elite LBs - DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was the #1 overall LB in 2006, and he was #5 in 2007. Last year, he suffered a precipitous drop to LB2 levels, but that was because he was playing through clearly painful and debilitating injuries. He should produce at or near the levels of the three LBs above him in the Gold Standard tier, but he should also be the last of the tier to go in every draft - even leagues without very informed owners will see him go 4th because most owners will go off of last year's stats and push Ryans too far down their board.

The 14K Tier

Bloom: If you choose to follow the sound advice of taking an elite DE like Jared Allen or Mario Williams as your first IDP, you probably won't get to build around any of the "Gold Standard" tier. So, where do you turn? Well, let's just call those guys "24K Gold", so that we can call the next tier "14K Gold". These guys are still the type you can count on every week, and you'll still look good on special occasions. The tier is especially value-packed because I think it's full of players that don't get the respect they deserve. I have three LBs at the top of the tier that should include at least one that falls out of the top 10 LBs taken in every league - Karlos Dansby, D'Qwell Jackson, and Jerod Mayo.

Dansby is a natural playmaker and he plays at a high tackle position. Jackson is probably the most underwhelming talent of the group, but his tackle opps should be off the chart again in Cleveland. Mayo has all of the makings of an LB1 after a better-than-expected rookie year, and he should hit the ground running this year. Wait and take the last of this tier as your LB1 if you don't take a 24K LB. Even if you do, you should consider taking the last one on the board so your LB2 will produce like most teams LB1. This is not meant to disrespect other LBs who should produce at or close to that trio, if not the 24K LBs, guys like Jon Vilma, DJ Williams, and James Harrison. The problem is that they are perceived as quality LB1s by most fantasy owners, so it's hard to get them at a value position in your draft.

Bramel: Interestingly, what I think should be a major storyline for this season's LB1 tier - whether to trust Ryans or not - has barely been talked about in our IDP Forum this offseason. SIG, prescient as always, brings it up right away. Even though none of our staffers have him outside the top six (consensus 4th overall in early July), it just feels like he's ranked much lower. There seems to be concern that the big numbers Zac Diles put up last season could be a sign that Ryans really isn't the stud his rookie numbers suggested. I'm with Bloom here. I think there's room in the 24K tier for Ryans. He's still a stud talent and there's very little competition for tackles elsewhere in the back seven. I wouldn't hesitate to draft him highly if the draft falls that way.

As expected, though, we're going to differ early and often in this discussion, Sig. I think there's a significant whiplash effect happening with D'Qwell Jackson right now. This time last season, Jackson had a consensus ranking in the mid-30s among our staff. I argued that the ranking was seriously undervaluing him, but also suggested that his upside was limited to the LB2 tier. A year later, with Jackson coming off a huge year, he's got a consensus ranking of 12th overall and half of our staff has him in their top ten. I think that's a reactive ranking and ignores two major issues. First, while Jackson did project to 92 solos over 16 games in 2007, he doesn't beat his teammates to the ball. He only barely out-tackled a mediocre platoon of Andra Davis and Leon Williams during his monster 2008 season and trailed them in 2007 despite playing in a more favorable role. Second, I think Jackson's 58 assisted tackles aren't being looked at with enough of a critical eye. The assisted tackle number is 14 more than his closest competition and probably represents the equivalent of an extra 7-10 solo tackles when compared to his peers. That's not happening again this year. I'll be letting someone else risk Jackson as their LB1 this year.

I will agree, though, that the 14k tier is loaded with value and makes a draft strategy focused on stud DL easily viable. I think DJ Williams is every bit as safe as Ryans. I'd put the two of them right behind the gold standard tier as players who have 110 solo potential. Behind them is a huge group of players that could finish well into the top 12. Two names stand out to me here.

First, there's the venerable London Fletcher. Here's a guy that's not missed a start in eight seasons and hasn't finished with less than 90 solos this decade. He's been immune to scheme, coaching philosophy and surrounding cast. Yet he's falling to the back end of the LB1 tier (and out altogether for some). I'm assuming that the argument is because he'll be 34 this season and had a serious decline in peripheral stats last season. I don't buy it. Fletcher will have a better defensive line, the same so-so competition for tackles and (possibly) the return of a more aggressive scheme. If he falls to you as a LB2, you could do much, much worse.

Next is Curtis Lofton. I was hoping he'd be a little more under the radar entering this season, but it appears that he's getting love from everywhere this summer. I've got Lofton ranked 7th right now (behind Vilma and ahead of Fletcher), which looks ludicrous on the heels of his 67 solo tackles last year. Remember, though, that those 67 solos came with Lofton sitting over 40% of his team's defensive snaps. While it's too optimistic to project those solos on a per snap basis to the every-down role Lofton will play this year, that kind of run support ability makes Lofton a near lock for LB1 status. Unfortunately, even excepting my high ranking, the FBG staff consensus has Lofton as the LB16. That may make it very difficult to secure Lofton as a value play as a late LB2. Don't feel bad if you have to reach to get him.

SIG, by now I'd guess that our readers are wondering about two names we haven't mentioned in our 24k or 14k tier. Two names that finished one-two overall in FBG scoring in 2008. James Harrison and Demarcus Ware. Looking at our rankings, neither of us is comfortable projecting a similar finish this year. Are we being stubborn, crazy, and shortsighted here?

Bloom: Maybe we are having a problem facing reality here, after all, Harrison and Ware were the #1 and 2 fantasy LBs overall in FBG scoring last year. Harrison was #3 overall in 2007. These guys have shattered the belief that 3-4 OLBs can't be dominant fantasy LBs. The problem is that you can't have the same assurance of 12-15 points most every week that comes with stud MLB and ILBs. I love Ware or Harrison as an LB2, but you can't afford to wait until 10-12 LBs are off the board to take them. If you do decide to make them your LB1, make sure to take one of the 14K tier that falls too far as your LB2.

Revisiting the 14K tier, I disagree with Fletcher simply because we saw him make fewer big plays last year, and his fantasy production dropped to its lowest level in over seven years. The drop-off is coming soon. It might not come this year, but you don't want to be holding the bag when it does come. That's why he's squarely in my LB2 tier.

You don't have to take a chance on an aging vet like Fletcher (or Ray Lewis) as your LB1 this season because of the depth of the 14K tier. I agree with Jene that Curtis Lofton is going to have a breakout year statistically because he'll be on the field for all three downs. He's really just a tick behind Dansby/Jackson/Mayo, and you can really afford to wait until three of those four are off the board if you want to wait on LB1 or use your first IDP pick on Williams/Allen to anchor your DL. I want to add one more player to that mix, and the one that everyone should target as their LB2 - Stephen Cooper.

Cooper produced at a top three overall clip on a PPG basis last year, but he is being overlooked because he missed four games due to a suspension. This is even more impressive when you consider that the Chargers faced a lot more passes than runs last season. Cooper is a great bet to produce like a top end LB1 this year, and he should be available outside of the top 10 LBs in every single IDP draft.

The aforementioned 3-4 OLBs, Harrison and Ware, and the parenthetically mentioned grizzled vet, Ray Lewis, round out the 14K tier on my board. They occupy the bottom of it because of the inherent risk due to position and age.

Bramel: I think SIG is likely right about Cooper and I like Lewis to have a solid season, too. The Ravens had the second worst team tackle opportunity in the last six seasons in 2008 and Lewis still managed 84 solos and a handful of big plays. Bump the tackle opportunity this season and Lewis could easily reach 90 solos with his usual big play output. He's another potential LB1 packaged with LB2 value.

I don't know if we're having trouble facing reality with the stud 3-4 OLB duo (and potentially trio if Shawne Merriman returns to form) or if we're just playing the odds. There have been only a handful of pass rushers who put up a run of seasons with mid double digit sacks. For me, it puts too much pressure on your lineup to need another elite season from rush OLB you've drafted as your LB1. I think these guys are perfect as high upside LB2s, but there's no chance of getting either Harrison or Ware as the 15th backer off the board. If you're targeting one of them, err on the side of Harrison. He's been consistent enough in the tackle column to relieve some of the downside pressures.

For completeness sake, the 14k tier for me would consist of Williams, Ryans, Vilma, Lofton, Fletcher, Harrison, Mayo, Morrison, Lewis and Cooper. Given the likely ADP for Lofton, Lewis and Cooper, I think you'll be able to get two linebackers from my top 13 in nearly every league and one of the stud linemen. With that kind of foundation, the extremely deep tier of potential LB2s gives you all kinds of flexibility as you fill out your roster with offensive backups and defensive starters. I think there are legitimately 25 additional names after our combined 14k names with strong arguments to fit into the top 25.

The LB2 Tier

Bramel: I'm interested to hear how SIG is going to approach this group of linebackers. My preference is generally to identify four or five names from this tier that appear to be either way undervalued and/or oozing with upside. I'll watch as the guys with lesser upside come off the board and try to fill in other positions while looking to ensure that I get two or three of my undervalued players with upside along the way. Unless things change drastically between now and August, I think that strategy will work again this year. I'll hold off on naming my targets until SIG weighs in with his strategy for this tier.

Bloom: Much like with the 14K tier, as Jene indicated, the LB2 tier is best played by making a list of undervalued players in the tier, and then snagging the last two or three that remain. I agree Jene that this tier is wide, covering as many as 25 players. Here are your targets (in the order they appear in my rankings):

Derrick Johnson - He's moving inside to WILB in the 3-4, he's playing on a team that should have their defense on their field a lot, and he's talented enough to have 90+ solos. It can't hurt that old man Zach Thomas is his competition for tackles on the inside. Current consensus staff rank: 36
Bradie James - He was the #1 LB by a good margin last year during the second half of the season, and Keith Brooking much better competition for tackles than Zach Thomas was last year. Current consensus staff rank: 29
Justin Durant - He'll be a three-down MLB in Jacksonville this year. He's an outstanding athlete and he already showed a nose for the ball when he got on the field in his first two seasons. Current consensus staff rank: 26
Lawrence Timmons - Larry Foote's departure means that Timmons will be a three-down ILB. He's got amazing range and closing speed, and he can make plays doing everything from dropping into coverage to rushing the passer. He has a pretty good partner in James Farrior, but Timmons should still be a good LB3 at worst, with low-end LB1 upside. Current consensus staff rank: 32
Clint Session - Session had two INTs when he started on the weak side for a game back in 2007. He was actually a viable fantasy LB on the strong side last year. Now he's a full time WLB, and he's in one of the few remaining cover-2 defenses that set up WLB to be the highest producing LB position for IDP leagues. Current consensus staff rank: 50

Bramel: Well, I suppose there won't be too much disagreement here after all.

Not only are we advocating the same approach, we're backing the same horses. I can't wait to hit the redraft circuit with you this summer. Four of the five names on my LB3 short list are the same. Johnson will be playing the very same role that finally made a consistent IDP option of Dansby and he'll have considerably more opportunity and less competition for tackles. Based on his current ADP, this situation is no different than that of Channing Crowder in 2008. Session consensus ranking is baffling given the current likelihood that he has a shot at playing every down and the Colts have recently confirmed that there'll be plenty of Tampa-2 concepts in the playbook again this year. Durant and Timmons will be tougher to get, but both have top fifteen potential that can be had after at least 20 other linebackers come off the board.

My fifth target is E.J. Henderson. I'm interested to see the first group of ADP data for IDPs this year, because I'm betting our consensus ranking of 20 might be a hair higher than that of the larger community. If it isn't, you might have to reach to get Henderson as a LB3 if you aren't willing to add him to the 14k tier above as a potential LB2. Still, an ADP of 20 for a player with top ten potential (96 solos and plenty of big plays weren't an anomaly in 2007) makes for an attractive target. Should Henderson's ADP (or that of another on my list) takes him out of consideration as a value play, I'm most likely to add James Laurinaitis. He's hanging out in the LB25-30 range for many and could easily slip into the top 20.

Dogs

Bramel: Let's get a little controversy brewing here before moving onto our sleeper picks to fill out our rosters. Are there players in this consensus LB15-35 group that you simply will not touch? Maybe a player or three that you might rank in the low 20s - high 30s that may be getting plenty of love from the masses, but that you won't roster unless he slides back to LB5 range. For me, Will Witherspoon tops that list. He's currently our 26th ranked linebacker, but I'm not paying LB2 prices for what would appear to upside that's dependent on pursuit tackles and big plays in a defense that isn't as aggressive with its outside linebackers as some suggest.

Bloom: Jene, I never say never, but Paul Posluszny, Stewart Bradley, and David Harris will probably be on none of my teams this year. By no means would I not take them under any circumstances, but judging by our staff rankings, about half of the people in any league will take them a few rounds before I would. All three are average talents that won't get many big plays or take over games with massive tackle performances. I actually think Joe Mays could push Bradley eventually, at least on running downs. I know Harris had a great run in his rookie year, but he didn't look nearly as dynamic last year, and now Rex Ryan has a hand-picked ILB to highlight in his defense in Bart Scott. If you were going to take a chance on a Jets ILB, I would make it Scott. We are on the same page about Witherspoon, he didn't have nearly the fantasy impact in his first incarnation as a WLB in Carolina as he did when he was healthy as an MLB in St. Louis.

Henderson is a terrific call, he looked like a world beater before he got hurt last year. My prediction for Laurinaitis is that he'll be more like Posluszny, a player in a plum IDP spot, but only the talent to turn it into low LB2 numbers, but he could be a good one for the same reason D'Qwell Jackson - tons of tackle opportunity. I also feel like I should mention Nick Barnett, who is not going at a great value position based where he is in my rankings versus where he is in the consensus staff rankings, but could still vastly out-produce both if his knee is sound. He'll get the WILB spot in the Capers 3-4, and he's been a stud as a 4-3 MLB in the past, so we know he can rack up the tackles if he's given the opportunity.

Sleepers

Bloom: When we talk about sleepers, I don't really think of them as guys to take late in your fantasy draft, I think of them of players to watch for on the waiver wire early in the season. Honestly, I don't recommend taking more than one bench LB (or more than one bench player at any IDP position). Roster spots are just too valuable to spend on "what if" defensive players when offensive players are always scarcer during the season. Spend those late picks on some upside RBs and WRs, not defenders. You won't need much depth if you can follow our advice and capture two LB1s and two LB2s without taking any of the top 10 LBs off the board and no more than two of the first 25-30 LBs off the board. Some of the players I would keep on speed dial if one of your draft picks is a dud or gets hurt early that are likely to go undrafted in most leagues include:

Dhani Jones - overlooked by most everyone, he was actually a consistent scorer, with 11 out of 16 games in double digits. As long as he's a three down MLB again, he's a solid emergency plug-in.
Adalius Thomas - Special pick for sack heavy leagues, if Brady and Co. put on their show, he's a virtual lock for double digit sacks.
Tavares Gooden - Has a chance to be a three down LB in Bart Scott's old role. Added bonus of possible MLB time if Ray Lewis gets hurt.
Rocky McIntosh - He's battled injuries during his pro career, and he's been a demon flying around the field to make plays when he's healthy, which mirrors his time at the U. If McIntosh is healthy to start the season, it'll show in his numbers, and he'll be worth a roster spot.

Bramel: Generally speaking, I'm filling out my depth linebacker spots relatively early, so it's rare that I'm looking outside my top 50 for a LB5. This season, if I have to delve more deeply than my target lists, I'll be looking at guys like Eric Barton, Akeem Jordan and Brian Cushing. All have reasonable upside for a cheap price. My speed dial pick is Kevin Burnett, who should immediately be rostered if he earns an every-down job in San Diego.

Big-play LBs

Bramel: I want to change gears again and throw a bone to our big play league brethren. Our MyFBG tool allows them to customize a list of rankings from John Norton's IDP projections, but our consensus staff rankings are derived from a scoring system that, if anything, leans toward a tackle heavy league. As such, we tend to marginalize rush OLB in our rankings due to consistency concerns and relatively poor solo tackle numbers.

For those in leagues with a sack-to-tackle ratio of 4:1 or more, James Harrison and DeMarcus Ware move into consideration in the 24k tier. They are clearly 24k prospects in leagues with ratios higher than 4:1. I'd add guys like Lamarr Woodley, Shawne Merriman, Adalius Thomas, Calvin Pace and Aaron Kampman into the deep LB2-3 tier. Shaun Phillips and Julian Peterson would become draftable LB3s as well. I'd still be passing on Manny Lawson, Kamerion Wimbley, Elvis Dumervil and the like. And while Joey Porter remains interesting, he'd be on my list of considered prospects, but unlikely to end up on my roster. Anthony Spencer would be my speed dial early season pick if he started well. Would your big play tiers look similar, SIG?

Bloom: Woodley and Merriman become guys you should definitely consider as LB2/3s in big play leagues, and I agree that Thomas, Kampman, Pace, Phillips and Peterson are all no-brainer draftable LBs in that format. I'd also take a closer look at Aaron Curry, who is impressing as a pass rusher already in practice, Parys Haralson, who got an extension from SF and has quietly played very well, and even rookies that were college ends like Robert Ayers and Brian Orakpo, who would seemingly be less than viable if they get LB designations, but gain that value back in big play leagues.

This is just a snapshot of our first thoughts on the linebackers. We're still a couple of weeks away from the open of camp season and much can (and will) change. Make sure you keep up with the rankings of all our FBG IDP staffers, remember to keep an eye on our IDP-centered message board and an ear out for our podcasts throughout the summer on the Audible.

Next up - the always-open-for-interpretation defensive backs. We welcome all thoughts, suggestions and comments at bloom@footballguys.com and bramel@footballguys.com.