Individual Defensive Player Tiers - Defensive Backs

Posted 8/4 by Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

This is the final part of a three part series in which we'll take a critical look inside our rankings at each IDP position. If you missed them, be sure to check out our linebacker and defensive line discussions from the FBG Articles tab. In this installment, we'll examine the splits and tiers in our defensive back rank lists and how you might be able to leverage those tiers into a solid draft strategy. To see our full rankings and those of all our IDP staffers, check out our rankings page.

The Gold Standard

Sigmund Bloom: Last year was wild and woolly at the DB position in IDP leagues, disorienting enough to make you want to avoid the position altogether early in your draft and just take two warm bodies to start Week 1, then pick up the hottest WW names in the first few weeks of the season until you find ones that stick. This is actually a viable strategy because both safety and cornerback are pretty deep this year. Even in years that aren't are crazy as last year we see numerous players emerge during the season and lots of turnover in the top 10. Still, this doesn't mean that there aren't every-week studs to be had - DBs that deserve the "Gold Standard" label, even though a lot of the players that had that label last year turned out to be fool's gold.

The first is someone that burned a lot of IDP leaguers last year - Adrian Wilson. Wilson was a disappointment last year. He wasn't as explosive as he's been in years past early in the season because he was nursing a hamstring injury and still recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in 2007. By the time the NFC Championship rolled around, he was his old self, getting to McNabb twice and forcing one fumble. His tackle numbers were consistent and he should be the best big play safety in the league once again.
The second is the possible heir to Wilson's spot - O.J. Atogwe of the Rams. Atogwe has already been a fantasy force, now he gets to headhunt in Steve Spagnuolo's attack-based defensive scheme. Don't be surprised if he's the #1 safety this year after finishing in the top five the last two seasons.
The third should come as no surprise to anyone that hangs in the IDP Forum (if you don't, and you're reading this, you have no idea what you've been missing, only the best IDP talk anywhere on the web), it's Richard Marshall. Marshall was a top ten fantasy corner in each of his first two years despite only being a part-time starter. Last year, he came back to earth a bit as both starting corners ahead of him played all sixteen games. This year, Ken Lucas is gone to Seattle. Based on his performance so far, Marshall could set the bar higher than any fantasy corner has in a long time.
The fourth and last is Antoine Winfield. You can set your watch by this guy's fantasy consistency. When he plays 16 games, he's a top five fantasy corner. When he misses time, he still produces at a top five clip. If you draft Winfield, you can set it and forget it, he'll be an elite option.

Jene, who are the DBs you trust to be elite... if there are any?

Jene Bramel: I think it's important to stay flexible at this position. There are some seasons where it's seemed clear that drafting a couple of stud safeties early would effectively add two additional LB2s to your lineup and give a sizable relative advantage at those lineup slots. Other seasons have presented clear late round value (e.g. Yeremiah Bell last year). Two years ago, we were lamenting a horrible season from the entire group of defensive backs - only one finished with more than 80 solos, which hadn't happened in years. Last season, nine DBs finished with 80+ solos, and three with 95 or more solos. Flexibility and some educated forward thinking is the way to play defensive backs in your draft. That makes Bloom's question, "Which DBs do you trust to be elite?" a very pertinent question.

I'm not sure I trust any of these players to be elite, which is why we've pushed the stud DL, then come back to linebacker value as a draft strategy this year with barely a mention of drafting defensive backs yet. However, there are a few options at the top of the rank list that I really like, and will be tempted to grab ahead of one my value linebacker targets if they fall in the draft.

The Not-Quite-Elite Tier

Bramel: I'm reasonably confident that the top three backs on my rank list will finish in the top ten this year. I'm not confident, however, that any of them are likely to run up 85+ solo tackles and/or put together a huge set of big play and coverage stats to push them into a slam dunk elite tier above the pack. I'll be hoping to get a look at these players as my 4th, 5th or 6th IDP rostered.

First, I strongly agree with Bloom's assessment of Atogwe. I've bashed him for weak tackle numbers and a heavy reliance on unpredictable big play stats in past seasons, but I'm fully on board his bandwagon for 2009. Will Witherspoon's exceptionally poor tackle season may have contributed to Atogwe's surge in tackles last year, but it's proof that Atogwe can support the run. And Spagnuolo's scheme has made elite fantasy options of players with two way, big play skill at FS; Brian Dawkins and Gibril Wilson were both top fantasy options in this defense. No one else in this year's draft has 80 solos, 5 interception potential.

Next, while I think Yeremiah Bell has little chance of topping 100 solos again this year, I do believe that there's enough tackles for him to approach 80. His big play potential is also above-average. He should remain a top DB this year.

Finally, don't sleep on Roman Harper this year. He's very quietly remained productive through seasons interrupted by injury and concerns of missing snaps to rotation. He's averaged five solos a game for his career and, though inconsistent, has flashed big play capability in pass rush and coverage. All offseason indications suggest that the more aggressive scheme of new coordinator Gregg Williams and the vast improvements at corner and free safety in coverage will allow Harper plenty of snaps as a roaming in-the-box playmaker.

That's my "probably elite, but I wouldn't bet the house on them" top tier. Adrian Wilson might inch into that tier sometime during training camp, but I'm not entirely sold on him yet.

If none of the above fall to me at an acceptable price, I'll be looking to add one of the three stud corners (Winfield, Marshall, Charles Tillman) or potential stud safeties with more question marks than my top three. I think the corners are likely to provide better all-around value, however, and I'm interested to see if Sig is any more comfortable rostering guys like Eric Weddle (who I've ranked fifth, but struggling to keep there), Gibril Wilson, Troy Polamalu and Michael Lewis.

Bloom: I also like Tillman right after my "trust to be elite" tier, the only issue with him is missed games and frequently appearing on the injury report even when he plays.

I tend to agree with your take on Bell, and think he's one of the surest things outside of that top four I love, but after that I tend to diverge from the pack.

Before I would take any of those other safeties you mention, I would go with one of three talented and productive Tennessee DBs: Michael Griffin, Chris Hope, and Cortland Finnegan. All are aggressive in run support, good playmakers, and I expect the Titans to face a lot more defensive plays than they did last year because of the loss Albert Haynesworth.

I was disappointed in Harper's lack of big plays last year. The presence of Darren Sharper should help, but he's still only a borderline DB1 on my board.

One other player that I believe deserves mentioning before I look at the safeties Jene asked about is Cedric Griffin. He's had back-to-back seasons with 80 or more solo tackles despite playing on a defense that has a brick wall in the middle against the run, discouraging opponents from leaning on the rushing attack. He's entering his fourth season and should really hit his stride this year playing across Antoine Winfield. I see him as a DB1 this season.

The Next Level

Bloom: I have issues with all four safeties you named. Weddle is one guy that won't be on any of my teams. He was extremely deficient in coverage and the Chargers faced an inordinate amount of passes last year. He's more natural as a free safety, and if he's playing next to Clinton Hart or Kevin Ellison, he'll have to be the deep safety, even if he has struggled in that role in the past. How much are the Chargers missing Marlon McCree? There's no way I would take Weddle in the top five DBs, yet that's where he's going routinely.

Which Miami DB is worse in coverage? Bell or Wilson? Neither is sparkling, but my gut says Wilson is better suited to play the deep middle, and he loses out on tackle opportunities because of it. He's only a low end DB1/high end DB2 on my board, and someone will take him in the top 10 DBs on name recognition, so I doubt I'll be rostering him this year.

Polamalu gets by in IDP leagues on reputation more than actual fantasy production. He played all 16 games last year, and he was still only the 13th ranked fantasy safety. Much like Wilson, I'd love to have him as a DB2, but ADP seems to indicate that won't happen unless I'm willing to take him in the top 10 DBs off the board.

Lewis is the guy I actually feel the most comfortable with even though I have him ranked lowest in the group, because his ADP actually matches his expected production. His production was a bit erratic as he played through injuries last year, with only four games over 10 fantasy points, but three of those at 19.75 or higher, so that also relegates him to DB2 status.

With all that in mind, it seems like waiting is really the best policy at DB. Too many of these top names will go too high on name alone. I'd rather throw darts and take chances with some later picks that have a good chance of matching some of the players that will go in the top 10-15 DBs in every single draft.

Jene, how does this tier make you feel when you're putting together your draft strategy?

Bramel: I think the defensive backs are shaping up a lot like the linebackers for me with regard to draft strategy. I think there's enough value to be found behind the big names that you can wait and see what develops. I'd love to roster one of my top three DBs, but the second group of safeties and top corners aren't a bad consolation prize. And just like the deep group of 14k linebackers, there's plenty to choose from outside the consensus top 8-10 players.

You've noted Griffin, and I'm always happy to roster a run-supporting Cover-2 corner, as well as the Tennessee triumvirate of interesting prospects. I'm not quite as high on the two corners as I am the two safeties, but all four arguably have DB2 potential. Other guys I see as strong bets to break into the top ten include Bernard Pollard, Kevin Payne, Bob Sanders and Kenny Phillips.

Pollard always seems to be dodging rotational concerns, but keeps throwing up 70 solo tackle seasons. Clancy Pendergast wasn't afraid to use three safeties in Arizona when he had them, but there's plenty of tackle opportunity to be found in Kansas City this year and Pollard has been, on-field warts aside, the most consistently productive tackler over the past two seasons. Payne has plenty of competition for tackles and will see time in coverage in the Cover-2 in Chicago, but those issues didn't keep him from approaching 75 solos last season. Durability concerns should keep Sanders from being drafted as anything more than a late DB2 with upside, but he produces like a top five DB when healthy. Phillips may be hurt if the Giant defense is successful enough to severely limit their own tackle opportunity, but he could be the next Brian Dawkins or Gibril Wilson in this scheme. He's O.J. Atogwe without the track record.

There are other upside prospects that we'll get to later. I hate using the word crapshoot when discussing IDPs because it implies that you can't predict player value and that any attempt to rank them is a fool's errand. This season's DB group will be a bit of a crapshoot - not because projecting value is impossible, but because there are enough preseason question marks among a group of very good players that the tier of guys who could finish among the top fifteen is larger than in recent memory. In fact, the "DBs are a crapshoot" argument may just push a roster full of studs onto your team this year.

The Undervalued Tier

Bramel: There'll be plenty of good defensive backs this season, and I think this is the season to be as flexible as possible with them during your draft. If your competition sloughs them until late, there are studs to be had. If the big names start a run early, the DB2 and DB3 with upside tiers are so deep that you can grab the value at LB and DL instead.

Sounds like you'll be waiting and taking chances, Sig. What undervalued players do you have your eye on to grab as late DB1/DB2s for your lineup? Or is this the year that you slough the position altogether and grab upside very late and stay active on the waiver wire?

Bloom: I'm with you on wanting to land Payne and Sanders on my teams, but judging by our staff rankings there should be at least one or two owners in every league that value them a little more than we do. Sanders is a perfect guy to take as your DB2 because as long as you can afford the extra roster spot for Melvin Bullitt, you'll get DB1 production from the combo. Bullitt was such a natural playmaker last year that the Colts might be forced to get him on the field somehow even when Sanders is healthy. He might be the most undervalued safety in IDP leagues right now.

I'm not quite as bullish on Phillips, although I grant that he could have a breakout season this year. I would take him around the 20th overall DB, too late to get him in most leagues. I think he will be kept deep at times and Michael Johnson will be the safety in the box, so Phillips tackle opportunities will be limited a la LaRon Landry (a player he reminds me of). Pollard scares me even more because he was a flat out liability in coverage at times and either Mike Brown or DaJuan Morgan could send him to the bench if the new regime gets tired of his lapses in coverage.

My favorite undervalued safeties this year to draft later on as DB2 prospects include:

Brandon Meriweather, who really came on the in the second half of the season and should get a ton of big play opportunities as the Patriots offense pours it on again this year
Brian Dawkins, who should get a ton of tackle chances on one of his last laps around league playing behind a porous front seven
Jarrad Page, who is getting no respect after finished as the sixth best fantasy safety last year
Nedu Ndukwe, a natural playmaker who flies to the ball. I know that Roy Williams is threatening to take his job, but I think we both know how that will turn out as long as Mike Zimmer remembers the player that Williams was later in his Dallas career instead of hoping to revive the player he was early in his Cowboys days.

There are also a handful of corners whose staff rankings are leaving me scratching my head, any of which could end up being fine DB2/DB3 candidates:

Kelvin Hayden, who can jump a route or two and provides consistent tackle numbers in the box score as a corner in one of the last teams playing cover-2
Champ Bailey, who needs no introduction. He was hurt last year, people, don't write him off yet! His tackle numbers should also be aided by that leaky front seven
Johnathan Joseph, who has done nothing but look like a stud IDP corner in the making, a big play waiting to happen

My "speed dial" waiver wire candidate to watch in the first few weeks, or take as some of the last players on the board if you want to slough DB altogether (not a terrible strategy when players with this much potential are available this late):

Atari Bigby, a big hitting strong safety who is being overlooked because he was hurt last year
James Butler, a solid safety that Steve Spagnuolo hand-picked to come over to St. Louis with him from New York
Abram Elam, another safety that a new defensive minded head coach brought with him to his new team... and one that will play a position that produced one of the better IDP safeties of the last few season (Sean Jones)
Sabby Piscitelli, a strong safety who won't be stranded deep in the cover-2 now that Jim Bates has taken over the defense in Tampa
and of course the aforementioned Bullitt.

The value at DB just goes on and on. I haven't even brought up Antonio Cromartie who should be over his hip injury and being distracted by his five children in seven states, Leigh Bodden, who should be the #1 corner in New England, past and present studs like Dunta Robinson, Charles Woodson, and Marcus Trufant, a quartet of rookie safeties who are ticking time bombs of IDP production... yeah waiting to be the last one to draft your DBs and just playing the wire early and often really could be the best this year.

Bramel: It appears we agree on the depth of this tier, but will differ on the list of targets. Among safeties, I strongly agree with your leanings on Brandon Meriweather and Brian Dawkins. Both are in better situations with more opportunity that it may appear. Both could surprise with big numbers. I'm not as confidently behind Meriweather as I was Yeremiah Bell last year, but I think he's got that kind of potential as an every-down SS.

In addition to Meriweather and Dawkins, I've got four other safeties on my target list in the later rounds. Tyrell Johnson should be a stronger in the box player than Darren Sharper and could surprise despite playing in a Cover-2 scheme. William Moore will have to earn the starting SS job over Thomas DeCoud in camp, but he has 75 solo tackle potential in Atlanta. Michael Mitchell didn't get much time in OTAs after missing practice time due to the NFL graduation rules and a hamstring injury, but he has significant upside once he gets playing time. And whomever wins the Detroit SS job is a tackle monster waiting to happen. If that situation hasn't worked itself out before your draft, be ready to roster the starting Lion SS as soon as he's announced.

There are plenty of corners with attractive upside, too. Marcus Trufant, a strong tackler in a new Cover-2 scheme, should be on everyone's short list later in the draft. Both Bengal corners are also solid picks, but riskier given their inconsistencies and durability issues. Others I have my eye on include Ron Bartell, who was very productive late last season and should be again this year, and Marlin Jackson, who returns from injury to a solid Cover-2 role in Indianapolis. Ike Taylor and Leodis McKelvin will also be 65+ solo tackle threats with some big play upside.

Regardless of which players you put in this tier, the take home point is pretty clear. If you miss on your big name targets at DB1 or DB2, this group is so deep that you should be looking for value at other positions rather than reaching for a DB with questions too early during the back end of your drafts.

Players To Avoid

Bramel: We touched on a few players we'll be avoiding in the upper tier of defensive backs, but I think it's worth identifying a couple of players that you will not be drafting from this deep group. Even though my ranking isn't far off the consensus FBG ranking, I doubt Antrel Rolle lasts until the high 30s in most leagues, which means he's unlikely to make many of my rosters. I doubt he reproduces his big tackle numbers from a season ago. I'll also be passing on Nate Clements. I don't trust him to rebound from a poor season as he did in 2007.

Bloom: Some of the players that my colleagues like that I'll be avoiding include:

Madieu Williams, S, MIN - Jene's take on Tyrell Johnson could be spot on, either way, Williams will likely be stranded deep more often than you want in a fantasy safety.
Donte Whitner, S, BUF - Maybe he could become the SS and have solid value if one of Jairus Byrd or Ko Simpson is ready to play FS, but I wouldn't roster him until we hear that news definitively.
I'm avoiding all of the rookie safeties unless they separate themselves from the competition in training camp. Although the payoff could be great, having to clog a valuable roster spot that could be used for a hot early season pickup is a big price to pay. Moore in particular worries me because last we heard he was revamping his footwork, which is a pretty rudimentary thing to be working on if you are going to be starting in two months.
I'm avoiding Quentin Jammer for some of the same reasons I'm avoiding Eric Weddle - I just don't see how the Chargers face that many pass attempts again this year.
I wouldn't target Nick Collins, someone else will take him way too early on his fluky INT for TD flurry last year.
Lastly, I'm not taking the plunge with Sean Jones. I see a rotation with him and Quintin Demps looming and I don't want to hold him all year waiting in vain for those studly numbers to return.

This is just a snapshot of our first thoughts on the defensive backs. We're still a couple of weeks away from the open of camp season and much can (and will) change. Make sure you keep up with the rankings of all our FBG IDP staffers, remember to keep an eye on our IDP-centered message board and an ear out for our podcasts throughout the summer on the Audible.

Next up - the bread and butter of all IDP leagues - linebackers. We welcome all thoughts, suggestions and comments at bloom@footballguys.com and bramel@footballguys.com.