The Rookie 100 - Pre-Draft Fantasy Rankings

Posted 4/24 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive for Footballguys.com

First, a few overall notes:

There's a severe drop-off in overall value (read: talent level) around 30-35 that should only get worse after these guys find homes this weekend.
The second round should be full of potential stud TEs and RBs that don't find great homes.
Sack heavy leagues should be full of 3-4 OLB value well into 3rd/4th round.
Just like Ryan last year, Stafford should be a reasonable value late in the first, and he might even fall into the 2nd

The Rookie 100

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Still the undisputed #1 in a PPR, Crabtree should be a 100 catch a year wideout in the NFL.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - Moreno has what it takes to be a solid NFL starter, the only question is whether his lack of great physical gifts will keep him from putting up elite numbers.
Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut - Brown is an underrated pass catcher with outstanding intangibles, and his all-around combine numbers indicated physical prowess that many didn't think he had.
Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State - Wells has the ability be a 1500+ yard rusher, but the skills to keep him on the field on third down aren't there yet, and of course, there's the durability issues.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Pitt - McCoy is the most creative and dynamic runner in the open field, throw his pro day numbers out the window.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina - Don't let Nicks drop because of these conditioning/weight questions, he looks like a solid bet to a top 25 WR.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland - DHB has the raw ability to be a big play wideout who can still get over 1000 yards and 10 TDs, even if he only catches 60 balls, but he is not for the risk averse.
Jarett Dillard, WR, Rice - NFL teams will ask themselves why they passed on Dillard for bigger or faster wideouts in a couple of years.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia - Stafford loves to make things happen when the play breaks down, and if he has Calvin Johnson on the other end of his scrambles, the results could be explosive.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - Maclin still needs more polish as a wideout, but his speed promises bigger things in his future.
Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State - Robiskie will probably start before any 09 rookie wide receiver not named Crabtree, and he could be a Housh type in the right offense.
Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest - if Curry lands on a 4-3 team, the dreaded SLB spot could be his, but he should still be a solid LB2/LB3 even in that role.
James Casey, TE, Rice - What do you get when you cross Tim Tebow at the goal line with Chris Cooley on the rest of the field? We'll find out.
Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa - His measurables were better than expected, but he might be a one year wonder, and he wasn't as powerful as advertised on tape.
Percy Harvin, WR, Florida - Worth the risk in the second round of your rookie draft, but no player has more negative buzz swirling around him than Harvin right now, and there's also the matter of finding a natural position for him.
Mike Thomas, WR, Arizona - He'll probably start out as a slot receiver, but I think his team will find it hard to get him off the field.
Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina - Cook could be the ultimate weapon and get extra stat love by lining up as a WR at times, but he might not be the apple of the coach's eye.
Rey Maualuga, LB, USC - I don't buy the two down LB talk. Maualuga should be a quality LB2.
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC - With the right supporting cast, I could be convinced to move him up a lot on this list, but he's not the kind of QB that can weather a bad team storm by putting them on his back.
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State - Pettigrew lacks top 5 fantasy TE upside, but I am warming to his high floor profile.
Cedric Peerman, RB, Virginia - Seems to profile as a 1A at best, but you have to love his intangibles and versatility.
Javon Ringer, RB, Michigan State - Are we all sleeping on Ringer? He seemed to be worn out at the end of the season, but rose from the ashes to put up astounding quicks numbers at his pro day.
Chase Coffman, TE, Missouri - May never average more than 10-11 yards a catch, but could easily catch 60-75 balls every year. I'm a little worried about that foot.
James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State - I don't see the explosiveness in his game to put up big numbers, but should level off as a good LB3.
Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss - Not as physically gifted as Cook, or natural catching the ball as Casey/Coffman, Nelson should still settle in a low-end starting fantasy TE/good backup
Rashad Jennings, RB, Liberty - Didn't do as much for himself in the postseason as Ringer and Peerman, but he's more physically ideal to be a lead back.
Andre Brown, RB, NC State - The word is that his game might be better suited for the pros than college, but can he stay healthy?
Brandon Tate, WR, UNC - Not that different than Harvin, expect you'll get him at least a round later in your rookie draft.
Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State - Should get at least the "QB of the future" chance to start, tools give him top 10-12 QB upside, but will require patience.
Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma - He has the hands and quicks to become a solid #2 and bye week/injury fantasy WR.
Brian Orakpo,, DE/OLB, Texas - Still an ascending talent, could be this year's Merriman.
Austin Collie, WR, BYU - Collie should be a 50-60 catch a year slot receiver in the worst case, but he's got ball skills and underrated physical tools to do more.
Travis Beckum, TE, Wisconsin - Has abilities that translate well to fantasy, but he's a one trick pony and somewhat inconsistent.
Gartrell Johnson, RB, Colorado State - He might not get drafted until late in the second day, but Johnson just runs the way an NFL RB should.
Cornelius Ingram, TE, Florida - The last of this terrific class of potential TE1s for fantasy because he's coming from an ACL and he's an unrefined route runner.
Aaron Kelly, WR, Clemson - Long-limbed athletic receivers usually catch the scout's eye, but he's flying under the radar because of a disappointing senior year.
Kenny McKinley, WR, South Carolina - McKinley's speed and ability to get open are underrated, but can he stay healthy?
Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State - An absolute destroyer last year, he's falling because he's not fitting into teams mold for a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE. Get him on the field somehow, I don't care, he'll make plays.
Patrick Chung, S, Oregon - A safe boring mid round rookie pick, Chung should spend some time in the box and he's got great intangibles and durability.
Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan - Can't spell safety without "safe" part II, Delmas is very aggressive against the run for a free safety.
Mike Goodson, RB, Texas A&M - He has the talent to be a Washington/Norwood type, but does he have the dedication and character?
Bernard Scott, RB, Abilene Christian - Just like Goodson, physical ability is there, but what about personal stability?
Johnny Knox, WR, Abilene Christian - Small School WR sleeper A - he's got the hands and quicks to be a great slot receiver and the speed to be more than that.
Dudley Guice, WR, Northwestern State (La.) - Small School WR sleeper B - He's got a long-limbed frame, he's fearless, and he's got terrific ball skills. If he plays up to his pro day measurables in the pros, he'll be the steal of the NFL draft, and your rookie draft.
Mike Wallace, WR, Mississippi - How can someone be a sleeper coming out of the SEC? Judging by what we saw at the Senior Bowl, Wallace is just learning the position, but he's got the frame, athleticism, and speed to be a playmaker in the NFL.
Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech - Even if he takes 2/3 of the plays off, he can put up top 20 DE numbers on the other 1/3.
Ramses Barden, WR, Cal Poly - I see the kind of big WR that play physical enough to be a force, but my mind is open to the possibility of Barden becoming a lot tougher in the pros.
William Moore, S, Missouri - Will he be the good Roy Williams or the bad Roy Williams? It's worth a pick in the 40s to find out.
Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati - A stone cold natural as a pass rusher, he should become a quality LB and maybe even goal line TE, too.
Brian Cushing, LB, USC - Cushing should start right away, but as a 4-3 SLB, or a 3-4 OLB that's not an explosive pass rusher.
Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State - Bump him up in sack heavy leagues, but will he be able to do anything else in the pros?
Ian Johnson, RB, Boise State - The raw physical ability to be a quality NFL RB doesn't seem to be there, but he's got the intangibles and work ethic to endear himself to the coaches and be better than we think.
Stephen McGee, QB, Texas A&M - Rocketing up draft boards, McGee is athletic enough to be a top 12-15 fantasy QB if he pans out.
Pat White, QB, West Virginia - The Senior Bowl and combine buzz seems to have worn off, and it looks like he'll stay at QB, which means a long wait to see what you've got if you draft him.
Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Georgia - Will go in the top 100 of the draft and get a shot to start, and he's got the physical talent to do it, but unreliable hands don't usually go away in the pros.
Louis Murphy, WR, Florida - He's got a terrific size/speed combo, but he's going to have to get stronger and more polished to make it in the NFL.
Kory Sheets, RB, Purdue - I'm cooling on Sheets a bit, but he does have great hands and underrated speed.
Clay Matthews, LB, USC - Will go a lot higher because he'll be a first round NFL pick, but I think there's some wishful thinking because of intangibles and NFL bloodlines going on there.
Jeremiah Johnson, RB, Oregon - Has long speed, and he's pretty shifty in the open field, but looks like a complimentary back at best in the NFL.
Glen Coffee, RB, Alabama - Speed to break the long one, but he's not very creative and goes down on contact too easily.
James Davis, RB, Clemson - Davis started to redeem himself with a good pro day, but he still seems like a power runner who runs too upright to me.
Frantz Joseph, LB, Florida Atlantic - Even if he's only a two-down thumper, he's always around the ball.
Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee - I'm not as excited as the NFL is about Ayers, but he is versatile and should get some Justin Tuck sacks lining up at DT on 3rd down.
Darry Beckwith, LB, LSU - Stout MLB, but is he good enough to start in the NFL?
Malcolm Jenkins, DB, Ohio State - Safety/corner uncertainty casts a shadow over his value.
Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State - The tools are there, but I just don't see a natural WR.
Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois - Tough, vicious player isn't quite as physically gifted as the first tier of DE/OLBs.
Clint Sintim, LB, Virginia - Extra possible value if he ends up playing inside in a 3-4.
Dominque Edison, WR, Stephen F Austin - Probably as physically gifted as Knox and Guice, but hasn't shown it in the postseason.
Eron Riley, WR, Duke - Tremendous athlete, but raw game, could be this year's Josh Morgan.
Zach Miller, TE, Nebraska-Omaha - Tremendous raw tools , TE seemed like a good fit for this option QB at the Cactus Bowl.
Gerald McRath, LB, Southern Miss - I've soured on McRath a bit; his stats were inflated, and he might have come out too early.
Tyrone McKenzie, LB, South Florida - I've come down on McKenzie too; love the way he plays, but he seems like an SLB in the making.
Darius Passmore, WR, Marshall - He'll get a shot because of his speed, but he reminds me of the the frustrating side of Devery Henderson too much to rank higher.
Marcus Freeman, LB, Ohio State - He should start at OLB and put up good enough numbers to be bye week/injury depth.
Kevin Ogletree, WR, Virginia - Every time I watched Virginia tape, I liked Maurice Covington better, but Ogletree has upside if a team is patient with him.
Jasper Brinkley, LB, South Carolina - He should get a chance to be a force against the run inside a 3-4, but his iffy instincts bother me.
Deon Butler, WR, Penn State - Love the quicks and speed, and he's physical for a little guy, but probably an Randle El type at best.
Sammie Stroughter, WR, Oregon State - Like Butler, if only he was a big bigger and stronger, we might be talking about him as WR2 and top 40 rookie pick.
Arian Foster, RB, Tennessee - Quicker and faster than I expected at the Senior Bowl, this powerful back is probably still only an NFL RB3.
Nate Davis, QB, Ball State - Poor guy has been taking a beating since one team showed up at his pro day, but more than one team had him in for a visit.
Jason Phillips, LB, TCU - Intangible are there to put up big numbers, but is the physical ability present?
Scott McKillop, LB, Pitt - Jason Phillips, continued.
Dannell Ellerbe, LB, Georgia - Physical ability should have him in the 40s or 50s, but character concerns and measurable not showing up on tape has knocked him down my board.
Brooks Foster, WR, North Carolina - Physical ability is there to make a difference in the NFL, but signs of a refined game are not.
Zach Follett, OLB, Cal - Should be a lot better NFL LB than fantasy LB.
Jonathan Casillas, LB, Wisconsin - Solid chase WLB, but can a middling athlete start at that position of dwindling importance in the NFL?
Jarron Gilbert, DL, San Jose State - Possibly another Richard Seymour in the making.
Antone Smith, RB, Florida State - Pro day numbers suggest that he might be a Leon Washington type in the pros.
Quan Cosby, WR, Texas - If fantasy players got extra points for importance of plays in the game, Cosby would be higher.
Chip Vaughn, S, Wake Forest - Should be a traditional in the box strong safety.
Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest - Ballhawk playmaker, but will the tackle numbers be there for him to be safe enough to be in your lineup?
Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois - Major upside and he loves to play run support, but I don't trust him to stay on his coach's good side.
Brandon Gibson, WR, Washington State - Reliable but unexciting receiver will likely only be a WR4/WR5 on his team.
Josh Vaughan, RB, Richmond - Heir to Tim Hightower is powerful, but might lack the explosion to stick around.
Patrick Turner, WR, USC - Big and somewhat polished, but not very dynamic or physical.
Anthony Hill, TE, NC State - Solid two way TE who should start, but won't put up big receiving numbers.
Nick Reed, DE/LB, Oregon - Reed isn't physically ideal for any position, but he gets after it like few do and he might be converted to 3-4 ILB.
Marko Mitchell, WR, Nevada - Physical ability to be in the top 30-40 on this list, but hasn't been following through in the postseason.
Jamarko Simmons, WR, Western Michigan - Simmons has Boldin-esque frame and physical ability, but his hands don't seem up to snuff.