Top 200 IDP

Updated 8/21 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Average Draft Position (ADP) represents when these players will likely be drafted. Difference (Diff) refers to the difference between the average of the FBG IDP experts and the ADP list. A positive Diff value indicates expectations to exceed draft position (value pick). A negative Diff value indicates excpectations to fall short of drafted position (over-valued/reach). The green entries represent the best projected values as players to target. The red entries are players to avoid. Comments are provided by Aaron Rudnicki

Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos1	Pos2	Player	Team	Comments
1	1	0	LB1	ILB1	Patrick Willis	SF	Willis has been the top-scoring IDP the past two seasons
2	4	2	LB2	ILB2	Barrett Ruud	TB	Scheme change should lead to even better numbers in 2009
3	2	-1	LB3	ILB3	Jon Beason	CAR	Very consistent tackler has averaged 108 solo tackles the past two years
4	9	5	LB4	ILB4	DeMeco Ryans	HOU	After breakout rookie season production has dropped for 2 years in a row
5	5	0	DL1	DE1	Jared Allen	MIN	Elite DE has averaged 53 solos and 12.5 sacks over last 4 seasons
6	20	14	LB5	ILB5	D.J. Williams	DEN	Should push for 100 solo tackles playing ILB in Broncos new 3-4 defense
7	8	1	DL2	DE2	Mario Williams	HOU	Upgrade to surrounding talent in Houston should help improve his numbers
8	13	5	LB6	ILB6	Jonathan Vilma	NO	Rebounded after trade to Saints in 2008 and could do even better in 2009 with new DC
9	6	-3	LB7	OLB1	James Harrison	PIT	Surprisingly consistent 3-4 OLB has put up elite numbers in back to back seasons
10	12	2	LB8	ILB7	Karlos Dansby	ARI	Improved tackle numbers in 2008 helped this playmaker finish as top-5 LB
11	30	19	LB9	ILB8	London Fletcher	WAS	Extremely consistent and durable player is 34, but has shown no signs of slowing down
12	15	3	LB10	ILB9	Kirk Morrison	OAK	Very productive MLB has averaged 97 solo tackles and is entering contract year
13	14	1	DL3	DE3	Terrell Suggs	BAL	Disappointing sack numbers, but tackle production helps keep him among the elite
14	11	-3	LB11	ILB10	Jerod Mayo	NE	After impressive 100 solo tackle rookie season should see increase in big plays this year
15	24	9	LB12	ILB11	Ray Lewis	BAL	Despite low tackle numbers he's still a LB1 candidate thanks to big plays
16	17	1	DL4	DE4	Trent Cole	PHI	Streaky player has been a top-5 DE for past two seasons
17	27	10	LB13	ILB12	Brian Urlacher	CHI	Coming off disappointing season look for rebound year from Urlacher in 2009
18	21	3	DL5	DE5	Julius Peppers	CAR	Talented, but inconsistent player. Can he put together two great seasons in a row?
19	16	-3	LB14	OLB2	Lance Briggs	CHI	Elite WLB who puts up MLB type production
20	10	-10	DL6	DE6	Justin Tuck	NYG	Last year's #1 DE could see slight dropoff due to incredible depth on Giants defensive line
21	7	-14	LB15	ILB13	DQwell Jackson	CLE	Enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, but new coaching staff is a concern
22	23	1	DL7	DE7	Osi Umenyiora	NYG	Has top-5 potential, but might not get enough snaps in Giants DE rotation
23	3	-20	LB16	OLB3	DeMarcus Ware	DAL	Will have a hard time matching 69 solo 20 sack season from 2008
24	22	-2	LB17	ILB14	Curtis Lofton	ATL	Big improvement in productino expected as he becomes focal point of Falcons defense
25	29	4	LB18	ILB15	Paul Posluszny	BUF	Entering 3rd year in the league he has top-10 potential if he can improve big play numbers
26	18	-8	DB1	S1	Eric Weddle	SD	Finished as leading tackler among all DBs with 105 solo tackles last year
27	39	12	LB19	ILB16	Lofa Tatupu	SEA	Was a consistent LB1 from 2005 to 2007, but production fell way off in 2008
28	31	3	DB2	S2	Adrian Wilson	ARI	Has not lived up to high expectations last two seasons, but may blitz more in 2009
29	34	5	LB20	ILB17	E.J. Henderson	MIN	Appears to be fully recovered from foot surgery and could put up LB1 numbers again
30	36	6	DB3	S3	Yeremiah Bell	MIA	Don't expect another 100-solo tackle season after the addition of Gibril Wilson
31	43	12	LB21	ILB18	Stephen Cooper	SD	Underrated LB averaged 8 tackles/game and added 4 INTs in just 12 games last year
32	83	51	LB22	ILB19	Nick Barnett	GB	Recovering from torn ACL and will need to adjust to new 3-4 defense
33	37	4	DL8	DE8	Robert Mathis	IND	Undersized DE has seen dropoff in tackle numbers, but has been top-10 DE in 3 of 4 years
34	25	-9	DB4	S4	Oshiomogho Atogwe	STL	Elite playmaker has averaged 70 solo tackles and 5 INTs over past 3 seasons
35	64	29	LB23	ILB20	Gary Brackett	IND	Consistent LB2 should not see any dropoff after recovering from a broken leg
36	38	2	DL9	DE9	John Abraham	ATL	Has 26.5 sacks in 32 games with the Falcons
37	35	-2	DB5	CB1	Antoine Winfield	MIN	Has finished with 80+ solo tackles in 3 of the past 4 seasons
38	68	30	LB24	ILB21	Justin Durant	JAX	Move from OLB to everydown MLB should lead to big jump in production
39	54	15	DL10	DE10	Kyle Vanden Bosch	TEN	After averaging 48 solos and 10 sacks from 2005 to 2007 he fell off the map in 2008
40	72	32	DB6	S5	Roman Harper	NO	New aggressive Saints defense should give Harper more blitzing opportunities
41	65	24	LB25	ILB22	James Laurinaitis	STL	Rookie expected to start at MLB on a defense that should see a lot of snaps
42	26	-16	DB7	S6	Gibril Wilson	MIA	Shift to FS will likely mean a decline in tackles and increase in INTs
43	114	71	LB26	OLB4	Will Witherspoon	STL	Numbers fell way off last year, but move to WLB should help him rebound
44	70	26	DL11	DE11	Adewale Ogunleye	CHI	Consistent tackler who should see additional sack opportunites thanks to Cutler trade
45	40	-5	LB27	ILB23	Lawrence Timmons	PIT	Impressive in limited snaps last year should see big increase in playing time and production
46	60	14	LB28	ILB24	David Harris	NYJ	Didn't live up to high expectations in 2008, but should still be a reliable fantasy starter
47	58	11	LB29	ILB25	Bart Scott	NYJ	Playing in same scheme, but should take on bigger role than he had in Baltimore
48	63	15	DB8	CB2	Richard Marshall	CAR	After several productive seasons as nickel CB moving to full-time starter in 2009
49	46	-3	DL12	DE12	Justin Smith	SF	Puts up consistently high tackle numbers every year
50	32	-18	LB30	OLB5	Chad Greenway	MIN	Productive OLB has averaged 80+ solo tackles and contributes big plays
51	55	4	LB31	ILB26	James Farrior	PIT	Great all-around LB who had one of his best seasons at age 33 last year
52	79	27	LB32	ILB27	Derrick Johnson	KC	Shift to ILB in Chiefs new 3-4 defense could help Johnson breakout in 2009
53	28	-25	DB9	S7	Troy Polamalu	PIT	Tackle numbers were disappointing in 2008, but he made up for it with 7 INTs
54	80	26	DB10	S8	Quintin Mikell	PHI	Eagles signed Sean Jones in free agency, but Mikell appears safe at SS
55	53	-2	LB33	OLB6	Thomas Davis	CAR	Move from SLB to WLB led to impressive 90+ solo tackle season for Davis in 2008
56	33	-23	LB34	ILB28	Bradie James	DAL	Only player in the league with 70+ solo tackles and 7+ sacks
57	56	-1	LB35	OLB7	Ernie Sims	DET	New aggressive Lions defense should lead to big year for Sims
58	71	13	LB36	ILB29	Channing Crowder	MIA	Physical player who should put up big tackle numbers, but not much else
59	107	48	DB11	S9	Michael Lewis	SF	Great run support safety has averaged 75 solo tackles in first 2 years with 49ers
60	87	27	DL13	DE13	Aaron Schobel	BUF	Strong all-around DE who will try to bounce back from Lisfranc foot injury last year
61	44	-17	DL14	DE14	Gaines Adams	TB	New scheme in Tampa could lead to breakout season for Adams
62	69	7	LB37	OLB8	Keith Rivers	CIN	Top-10 draft pick in 2008 had his rookie season cut short by broken jaw
63	73	10	LB38	ILB30	A.J. Hawk	GB	Will move from 4-3 WLB to 3-4 ILB, but may sit in passing situations
64	74	10	DB12	CB3	Cedric Griffin	MIN	Big physical corner who has put up 80+ solo tackles in both years as a starter
65	117	52	LB39	ILB31	Antonio Pierce	NYG	Everydown player whose production has fallen off considerably last 2 years
66	50	-16	DL15	DE15	Chris Long	STL	Was great in 1st half of 2008 (23 solos 4 sacks), but terrible in 2nd half (9 solos 0 sacks)
67	88	21	DB13	S10	Bernard Pollard	KC	Chiefs have deep group at safety, but Pollard's job at SS appears to be safe
68	110	42	DL16	DE16	Will Smith	NO	Talented player, but sack totals have fallen (26 in first 3 seasons only 9.5 in last 2)
69	19	-50	LB40	OLB9	Shawne Merriman	SD	Averaged 49 solo tackles and 13 sacks before missing 2008 with a knee injury
70	94	24	DL17	DE17	Patrick Kerney	SEA	Had 19.5 sacks in 23 games with Seattle before injury ended his 2008 season
71	86	15	DB14	S11	Kerry Rhodes	NYJ	Should fill Ed Reed role in new Jets defense which means limited tackle opportunities
72	93	21	DB15	S12	Kevin Payne	CHI	Beware of potential move to FS which could hurt his value
73	81	8	DB16	S13	Chris Horton	WAS	With Landry playing deep expect Horton to see a lot of time up in the box
74	95	21	DB17	S14	Kenny Phillips	NYG	Talented safety showed potential as a rookie and will become full-time player in 2009
75	59	-16	DL18	DT1	Shaun Rogers	CLE	Will have trouble repeating career numbers from last season, but still an elite fantasy DT
76	62	-14	LB41	OLB10	Aaron Curry	SEA	Replaces Julian Peterson at SLB, but will he play on passing downs?
77	57	-20	DB18	S15	Bob Sanders	IND	Injury-prone player has missed at least 10 games in 3 of past 5 seasons so buyer beware
78	47	-31	DB19	CB4	Charles Tillman	CHI	Physical corner who also makes big plays, but will miss preseason after July back surgery
79	89	10	DL19	DE18	Darryl Tapp	SEA	Finished 2008 strong, but could be pushed for playing time at LDE by Cory Redding
80	105	25	LB42	OLB11	Keith Bulluck	TEN	No longer an elite 100 solo tackle LB talent, but still provides solid depth with upside
81	136	55	DB20	S16	Chris Hope	TEN	Finished as #1 safety in 2006, but has been inconsistent since then
82	77	-5	DB21	S17	Nick Collins	GB	Tackle numbers have been consistent, but he exploded with 7 INTs in 2008
83	145	62	DL20	DE19	Dewayne White	DET	Has finished as a top-20 DE past two years, but tends to fade in 2nd half of season
84	92	8	LB43	OLB12	Thomas Howard	OAK	Athletic WLB has averaged 82 solo tackles per year
85	124	39	DB22	S18	Chris Harris	CAR	2007 looks like an aberration, but he finished 2008 strong and could rebound this year
86	67	-19	DB23	S19	Michael Griffin	TEN	Unlikely to put up big tackle numbers, but has added value in big play leagues
87	122	35	DL21	DT2	Darnell Dockett	ARI	Can play both DE and DT positions, but has limited upside in most leagues
88	155	67	LB44	ILB32	Gerald Hayes	ARI	2-down LB is usually overshadowed by Dansby in the Cardinals defense
89	78	-11	DB24	CB5	Cortland Finnegan	TEN	Aggressive corner saw a spike in INTs last year, but drop in tackles
90	109	19	DB25	S20	Erik Coleman	ATL	Was a top-10 safety in 2008 and could repeat after shift to SS in 2009
91	132	41	DL22	DE20	Alex Brown	CHI	Very reliable 2-way DE has finished among the top-30 for last 6 seasons
92	104	12	LB45	OLB13	Julian Peterson	DET	Athletic pass rusher should remain a productive OLB after trade to Detroit
93	183	90	DB26	CB6	Nate Clements	SF	Was a disappointment in 2008, but has been a top-5 CB in 3 of past 5 seasons
94	52	-42	DB27	S21	Brandon Meriweather	NE	Rangy safety lacks ideal size, but makes plenty of big plays
95	111	16	DL23	DE21	Derrick Harvey	JAX	Talented player expected to take on much bigger role with Jaguars this year
96	51	-45	LB46	OLB14	Lamarr Woodley	PIT	Prototypical 3-4 OLB whose fantasy value relies heavily on big plays
97	103	6	DB28	S22	Antrel Rolle	ARI	Former 1st round pick at CB made very successful transition to FS in 2008
98	106	8	LB47	ILB33	Rey Maualuga	CIN	Rookie will have limited upside in 2009 if Bengals keep him at SLB all year
99	156	57	DL24	DE22	Andre Carter	WAS	Additions of Haynesworth and Orakpo should make things easier for Carter this year
100	84	-16	DL25	DE23	Mathias Kiwanuka	NYG	Giants may have a hard time finding consistent playing time for him this year on crowded line

Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos1	Pos2	Player	Team
101	120	19	LB48	OLB15	Clint Session	IND
102	137	35	DB29	CB7	Brandon Flowers	KC
103	66	-37	DL26	DE24	Dwight Freeney	IND
104	148	44	DL27	DE25	Charles Grant	NO
105	45	-60	DB30	CB8	Chris Gamble	CAR
106	146	40	LB49	OLB16	Leroy Hill	SEA
107	144	37	DB31	S23	Chinedum Ndukwe	CIN
108	169	61	LB50	OLB17	Akeem Jordan	PHI
109	48	-61	DL28	DT3	Albert Haynesworth	WAS
110	96	-14	DB32	CB9	Quentin Jammer	SD
111	129	18	DB33	S24	Brian Dawkins	DEN
112	134	22	LB51	OLB18	Brian Cushing	HOU
113	172	59	DB34	CB10	Terrence McGee	BUF
114	90	-24	DB35	S25	Sabby Piscitelli	TB
115	91	-24	DL29	DT4	Kevin Williams	MIN
116	121	5	DL30	DE26	Shaun Ellis	NYJ
117	165	48	DL31	DE27	Antonio Smith	HOU
118	102	-16	DB36	S26	Madieu Williams	MIN
119	100	-19	DB37	CB11	DeAngelo Hall	WAS
120	177	57	DL32	DE28	Trevor Scott	OAK
121	116	-5	DB38	CB12	Darrelle Revis	NYJ
122	127	5	DB39	S27	Sean Jones	PHI
123	128	5	DB40	S28	William Moore	ATL
124	108	-16	DB41	S29	Antoine Bethea	IND
125	75	-50	DB42	S30	Atari Bigby	GB
126	181	55	DL33	DE29	Ray Edwards	MIN
127	>200	74	DB43	S31	Tyrell Johnson	MIN
128	99	-29	DL34	DE30	Cliff Avril	DET
129	>200	72	DL35	DE31	Leonard Little	STL
130	173	43	DB44	CB13	Marcus Trufant	SEA
131	113	-18	DB45	CB14	Charles Woodson	GB
132	163	31	DL36	DT5	Tommy Kelly	OAK
133	>200	68	DB46	CB15	Dunta Robinson	HOU
134	>200	67	DL37	DE32	Greg Ellis	OAK
135	180	45	LB52	OLB19	Michael Boley	NYG
136	130	-6	LB53	OLB20	Adalius Thomas	NE
137	125	-12	LB54	OLB21	Calvin Pace	NYJ
138	141	3	LB55	ILB34	Larry Foote	DET
139	41	-98	LB56	OLB22	Aaron Kampman	GB
140	>200	61	DL38	DE33	Jason Jones	TEN
141	>200	60	LB57	OLB23	David Thornton	TEN
142	157	15	DB47	S32	Louis Delmas	DET
143	158	15	LB58	ILB35	Keith Brooking	DAL
144	149	5	DL39	DE34	Richard Seymour	NE
145	179	34	DL40	DT6	Tommie Harris	CHI
146	138	-8	LB59	ILB36	Eric Barton	CLE
147	>200	54	DB48	S33	Donte Whitner	BUF
148	97	-51	LB60	OLB24	Jermaine Phillips	TB
149	>200	52	LB61	OLB25	Mike Peterson	ATL
150	>200	51	LB62	OLB26	Freddie Keiaho	IND
151	>200	50	LB63	OLB27	Rocky McIntosh	WAS
152	>200	49	DL41	DE35	Juqua Parker	PHI
153	147	-6	LB64	ILB37	Dhani Jones	CIN
154	139	-15	DL42	DT7	Haloti Ngata	BAL
155	150	-5	LB65	ILB38	Tavares Gooden	BAL
156	175	19	LB66	OLB28	Shaun Phillips	SD
157	126	-31	DB49	CB16	Champ Bailey	DEN
158	>200	43	DL43	DE36	Charles Johnson	CAR
159	154	-5	DL44	DE37	Derrick Burgess	NE
160	174	14	DL45	DT8	Sedrick Ellis	NO
161	42	-119	DB50	S34	Ed Reed	BAL
162	>200	39	DL46	DE38	Darren Howard	PHI
163	>200	38	DB51	CB17	Ronald Bartell	STL
164	159	-5	DB52	CB18	Nick Harper	TEN
165	151	-14	DL47	DE39	Aaron Smith	PIT
166	142	-24	DB53	CB19	Leon Hall	CIN
167	>200	34	LB67	OLB29	Geno Hayes	TB
168	>200	33	DB54	S35	Bryan Scott	BUF
169	185	16	LB68	OLB30	Xavier Adibi	HOU
170	>200	31	DB55	S36	Tyvon Branch	OAK
171	160	-11	DB56	CB20	Eric Wright	CLE
172	>200	29	DB57	S37	Michael Johnson	NYG
173	133	-40	DL48	DT9	Jay Ratliff	DAL
174	>200	27	LB69	OLB31	Omar Gaither	PHI
175	>200	26	DB58	CB21	Marlin Jackson	IND
176	>200	25	DB59	CB22	Ike Taylor	PIT
177	>200	24	DL49	DT10	Jonathan Babineaux	ATL
178	>200	23	DL50	DT11	Tony Brown	TEN
179	>200	22	DB60	CB23	Kelvin Hayden	IND
180	>200	21	DL51	DT12	Kris Jenkins	NYJ
181	101	-80	DB61	S38	Patrick Chung	NE
182	>200	19	DL52	DT13	Kelly Gregg	BAL
183	>200	18	DB62	S39	Roy Williams	CIN
184	>200	17	DL53	DE40	Ty Warren	NE
185	>200	16	DB63	CB24	Tracy Porter	NO
186	186	0	DL54	DE41	Michael Johnson	CIN
187	>200	14	LB70	OLB32	Daryl Smith	JAX
188	>200	13	LB71	ILB38	Joe Mays	PHI
189	>200	12	LB71	ILB39	Andra Davis	DEN
190	>200	11	DL55	DE42	Chris Canty	NYG
191	>200	10	DB64	S40	Eugene Wilson	HOU
192	>200	9	LB72	ILB40	Takeo Spikes	SF
193	>200	8	LB73	OLB33	Manny Lawson	SF
194	>200	7	DL56	DE43	Cullen Jenkins	GB
195	112	-83	DB65	S41	LaRon Landry	WAS
196	>200	5	LB74	OLB34	Kawika Mitchell	BUF
197	>200	4	LB75	OLB35	Wesley Woodyard	DEN
198	152	-46	DB66	CB25	Ronde Barber	TB
199	>200	2	DB67	S42	James Butler	STL
200	167	-33	DL57	DE44	Robert Ayers	DEN