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KEEP AN EYE ON...Backup Quarterbacks

  Posted 7/21 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

If any of you are wondering why NFL backup quarterbacks are worth paying attention to as you prepare for the 2008 fantasy football season, let me turn your attention to Derek Anderson. Last year, Anderson seemed like the odd man out in a 3-way battle for the Cleveland Browns starting job. Rookie Brady Quinn was considered the long-term fantasy commodity while Charlie Frye appeared to be the placeholder for 2007. That line of thinking lasted for about one half of the first game, when Frye's struggles opened the door for Anderson to step in. One year, 3,787 yards and 29 TDs later, Anderson is armed with a monster contract extension, and he enters the 2008 season firmly entrenched not only as the Browns starter, but as a top-10 fantasy prospect.

The NFL season is a grind, and QBs rarely manage to play the full slate.

  • In 2007, only 13 quarterbacks appeared in all 16 games,
  • 21 teams started at least two QBs, and
  • Six teams started at least three QBs (Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Carolina, Miami, Minnesota)

Let's not forget that Anderson isn't the only consensus fantasy top-10 QB to start his career as a backup of little renown:

  • Tony Romo, Dallas - Fantasy owners paid ZERO attention to Tony Romo two years ago as Drew Bledsoe was coming off a top-10 fantasy season in Dallas. A month into the season, Romo took over and has emerged as one of the league's most productive passers two seasons running.

  • Tom Brady, New England - Speaking of Drew Bledsoe, were it not for an injury years ago, Brady might never have gotten into the Patriots lineup. Three Super Bowl rings, an MVP and the all-time single season TD record later; it appears that would've been an oversight.

The list certainly doesn't stop there, as players such as Damon Huard, Sage Rosenfels, Shaun Hill, Troy Smith and Todd Collins all contributed to fantasy teams' successes last year despite being backups.

With that idea as a backdrop, I want to call your attention to the projected backup QBs entering the 2008 season. With training camps looming, there's a good chance a few of these QBs will actually win starting jobs potentially, while others may fall another rung on the depth chart or suffer their outright release. A few of these players will be hyped enough that they may even get selected during your draft, but the majority are sure to go unnoticed on draft day. That doesn't mean you shouldn't be aware of them. Today's unknown backup could be tomorrow's fantasy stud.

'Backups' for Now

These QBs are listed as backups on the depth chart at press time, but could be inserted in the starting lineup by the opening kickoff. As such, these guys may even find their way onto fantasy rosters on draft day.

  • Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals - Kurt Warner came to Arizona in 2005 and started 10 games. He was supposed to gracefully finish his career as Matt Leinart's backup and mentor, but Leinart's struggles and injury last year reopened the door for the former 2-time MVP. Warner started 11 games and threw for 3,417 yards and an astounding 27 touchdowns. Warner remains a highly accurate passer (65.1% career) and showed a mastery of Ken Whisenhunt's offense last year. Yet, the coaching staff has resolutely declared Leinart the starter for 2008. Obviously that all hinges on whether the young ex-Trojan can command the huddle in training camp. Either way, don't be surprised to see Warner in the huddle at some point. If that happens, he would instantly become a viable fantasy starter given his track record and the combination of WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at his disposal.

  • Troy Smith, Baltimore Ravens - The majority of your league mates probably still consider Kyle Boller the starter in Baltimore until such time as Joe Flacco is ready to take over. I beg to differ. By the time the season begins don't be at all surprised if Smith, not Boller, is under center for the Ravens. With a new coaching staff in place, the never-ending (and undeserved) loyalty to Boller is no longer a concern. If Smith does win the job, what can you expect? Well, he started the final two games of the 2007 season and completed 32 of 60 passes for 370 yards and 2 TDs. The biggest challenge for Smith (6'0") will be throwing over the mammoth Ravens line, but working in his favor is considerable mobility which will be a necessity with a green left tackle.

  • Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears - Bears fans would contend they've been a QB away from Super Bowl contention for a few years now. Yet, this offseason the Bears stood pat by re-signing Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton to compete for the starting job. Grossman is expected to win the starting job, although nothing in his career record indicates it's a certainty. What fantasy owners need to ask themselves is whether it matters who starts. Orton, for now, shouldn't be on your fantasy radar. Even if he gets the starting job, he would be throwing to arguably the worst receiving corps in the NFC, and it remains to be seen whether the offensive line can keep him safe in the pocket, either.

  • John Beck, Miami Dolphins - The Dolphins are in flux, with a new regime ready to reshape a team that was once a perennial playoff contender. As we go to press, Josh McCown is considered the favorite to start the season largely because of his experience as a starter in Oakland and Arizona. But it must be said that McCown's "experience" didn't bring a lot of wins with it and, as a result, it shouldn't surprise anyone if Beck parlays a good training camp into the job. Ultimately, neither Beck nor McCown are compelling fantasy options, and it could be rookie Chad Henne who ends up starting by season's end.

  • Kellen Clemens, New York Jets - We could've just as easily listed Chad Pennington here and pronounced Clemens the odds on favorite to start. But based on Clemens' struggles last season (52% completion, 5 TDs, 10 INTs in 8 starts) it's hard to imagine he will beat out a healthy Chad Pennington. The Jets offense needs a steady handed signal caller who can minimize mistakes and get the ball in the hands of playmakers. That's Pennington to a tee. While we don't expect Clemens to wrestle the starting job away, it would be foolish not to acknowledge the possibility. If the light goes on and Clemens can rectify the questionable decision-making he displayed last year, his youth and superior athleticism could get him into the lineup at some point in 2008. Just don't bet on it.

  • Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers - All things being equal, the 49ers want Alex Smith to be the starter. They have a lot of time and money invested in him, and he'll be given every chance to turn his career around under OC Mike Martz' tutelage. But make no mistake: the team won't let Smith languish for long. If he struggles, Shaun Hill is going to get his chance. Mike Nolan needs to win NOW. And Mike Martz needs a solid year if he has any chance of returning to the head coaching ranks some day. Martz has a long history of turning average QB prospects into productive passers. He turned Kurt Warner from bag boy to MVP. He turned a 6th rounder castoff in Marc Bulger to Pro Bowler. He took a journeyman in Jon Kitna and made him a viable fantasy starter. Remember, Hill completed 68% of his passes last year while throwing 5 TDs against 1 interception. He's got the quick release and the accuracy that are essential to Martz's system.

Proven Commodities

These quarterbacks are firmly entrenched behind their respective starters, but if given an opportunity due to injury/circumstance, have proven they can be effective fantasy performers.

  • Sage Rosenfels, Houston Texans - Matt Schaub is unquestionably the starter, even if some felt Rosenfels was the more productive starter last year. When Schaub got hurt, Rosenfels came in and started five games and completed 64.2% of his passes. In parts of nine games, Rosenfels amassed 1,684 yards and 15 touchdowns. Should Schaub get hurt again, Rosenfels would be a compelling fantasy alternative. With Andre Johnson, Andre Davis and Kevin Walter on the outside, with TE Owen Daniels moving the chains, either Texans QB has the supporting cast to help your fantasy team.

  • Charlie Batch, Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best young arms in the business and is coming off a monstrous fantasy season (32 TDs, 11 INTs) which is why his backup, Charlie Batch, is way off the fantasy radar. While Batch isn't going to wrestle the job away from Big Ben, he is more than equipped to run the offense at a high level if Ben gets hurt. Batch saw significant playing time in three games over the last two seasons, in those games he averaged 207 yards and 2.33 TDs per game. With the maturation of Santonio Holmes, the continued reliability of WR Hines Ward and TE Heath Miller, and of course the addition of rookie WR Limas Sweed, the cupboard is full.

  • Trent Green, St. Louis Rams - There was a time, not that long ago, when Trent Green was the promising young starter for the St. Louis Rams. Back in 1999, Trent Green was going to quarterback Dick Vermeil's offense under the tutelage of an up-and-coming offensive coordinator named Mike Martz. But a preseason injury opened the door for Kurt Warner who, needless to say, grabbed the job and never looked back. Oddly, it was an injury to Warner the following year that opened the door for Green to reestablish his NFL status as a starting caliber QB. In 5 starts and parts of three others, Green threw for 2,063 yards, 16 TDs and only 5 interceptions. Green followed Vermeil to Kansas City and started the following six seasons before moving to Miami and floundering due to the accumulation of severe concussions. Most expected Green to retire but he was medically cleared to resume his career and finds himself back in St. Louis. This good news for Green is that the Rams offensive coordinator, Al Saunders, was calling the plays during Green's Halcyon days in Kansas City. While Green is clearly behind Marc Bulger, he would be an intriguing waiver wire option in the event of a Bulger injury.

Unproven, but in a Good System

These players are largely unknown commodities by virtue of never getting a chance to play, however, because they play in successful systems and/or have impressive supporting casts, they could surprise if given the chance.

  • Matt Moore, Carolina Panthers - Moore is a 24-year old backup who was thrust into the starting lineup last year after the Panthers QBs dropped like flies. While Moore didn't set the world afire, he did enough to secure the QB2 position this season. While Jake Delhomme is expected back from Tommy Jean surgery, few NFL QBs have returned successfully from the procedure which means Moore could be throwing to a rebuilt receiving corps this year. Steve Smith (healthy and elite) is now joined by D.J. Hackett and Muhsin Muhammad, and the Panthers have added Jonathan Stewart to invigorate the ground game. Should Moore see significant playing time, he has the weapons to be productive.

  • Brady Quinn, Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn has been on a rollercoaster ride since declaring for the NFL draft. Once considered a potential top-5 pick, Quinn had to sweat out hours in Madison Square Garden until his home town Cleveland Browns rescued him by trading back into the 1st round and selecting him 22nd overall. From there, Quinn looked like a sure bet to start at some point in 2007. That is, until Derek Anderson came in halfway through Week One and ended up throwing 3,787 yards and 29 TDs. Anderson is now armed with a big extension, and Quinn is relegated to talented backup. It would be surprising, but not impossible, to envision Quinn taking over for Anderson at some point this year. For as productive as Anderson was in 2007, there remain questions about his ability to lead the franchise long term. More likely, Quinn will back up Anderson for at least another season. Either way, Quinn is a compelling option particularly if you have a deep league or participate in a dynasty draft. The Browns have an excellent offensive line, one of the league's best WRs (Edwards), one of the league's best TEs (Winslow), and a major upgrade at WR2 (Stallworth). That's a potent situation for any QB to step into, much less someone that many scouts believe could be a 10-year starter in his own right.

  • Jim Sorgi, Indianapolis Colts - Normally, Peyton Manning's backup would be among the least noteworthy backup QBs in terms of fantasy relevance. After all, not only is Manning a dominant passer with nary a bad season to his name, he's also been an iron man. Yet, Manning's surgery to remove an infected bursa sac in July has to at least rouse one's curiosity. Although Manning should be fine for the start of the season, a further setback would introduce the world to Jim Sorgi. The 28-year old Sorgi has only thrown 127 passes in four seasons but has 6 TDs and only 1 INT to show for it. The good news is Sorgi understands the ins and outs of the Colts offense and would step into a proven system with great weapons and an above average pass-blocking unit. While we can't expect him to match Manning's performance in the event of injury, it also shouldn't surprise us if Sorgi were able to put up respectable fantasy stats in his own right.

  • Matt Cassel, New England Patriots - It wasn't long ago that New England handed the reins over to an unproven late-round draft pick. Three SB rings and a 50 TD season later, Tom Brady's status as a "long shot" prospect is long since forgotten. Like Brady, Matt Cassel played for an elite college (USC) but was a late round pick (7th round) and now finds himself one injury away from quarterbacking the best team in the league. While it's impossible to know whether Cassel could run the Patriots offense at a high level, the fact he remains the Patriots backup is a testament to the coaches' confidence in him. Cassel could be a fantasy savior OR a Patriots killer; we just won't know until the day comes.

  • Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles - Many Eagles fans groaned when the Eagles used their top pick (a 2nd rounder) in 2007 to select Kevin Kolb. But the fact remains that Donovan McNabb, for all his accomplishments and abilities, is injury prone. Donovan missed another two games last year and, even the most optimistic Eagles fans believe he must stay healthy in 2008 or Kolb could be handed the starting job in 2009. Kolb has progressed according to schedule, officially being promoted this summer from QB3 to QB2. We know the Eagles passing attack can be productive without McNabb. What we don't know is whether Kolb would approximate McNabb's output, Jeff Garcia's output or A.J. Feeley's output. That's the difference between a fantasy stud, a viable spot starter, and someone best left on the waiver wire.

  • Seneca Wallace, Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks offense has been greater than the sum of its parts. Although the team has shuffled leading receivers over the last five years, the results have largely been the same. Mike Holmgren's West Coast offense produces 3,500+ yards and 25+ TDs in most seasons. Of course, a large part of that success lies at the hands of starter Matt Hasselbeck. Seneca Wallace has come a long way since being drafted 110th overall in 2003. Once considered more an athlete than a QB, Wallace worked hard to prove he was a worthy quarterback and now has the confidence in the coaches should his services be required. We can't really say whether Wallace would perform well enough to be a fantasy starter but he's played well enough in spot time that he would be worth a waiver bid in the event of a Hasselbeck injury. Wallace is extremely mobile and has shown improved accuracy as a passer over the last three seasons. With 11 TDs to just 9 INTs, he's a name to remember.

Experienced Veterans

These backups are experienced NFL quarterbacks who have been productive in the past but probably have seen their best days, but are nevertheless one injury away from a chance at a renaissance.

  • J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills - It might seem unfair to say Losman's best days are behind him. He is, after all, only 27 years old and could contend for a starting job in free agency sooner rather than later. But, as far as his time in Buffalo, the baton has been passed to Trent Edwards and it would take an injury or MAJOR struggles from Edwards to reopen the book on Losman. Truth be told, there are things to like about Losman. He's a great athlete and has a quick release. He's not afraid of criticism and has the fiery temperament to be a good field general. In his one full season as a starter, Losman completed 62.5% of his passes and threw 19 TDs against only 14 INTs. He's also mobile (which matters to fantasy owners), having run for 140 yards and a TD in his 16-game season.

  • Brad Johnson, Dallas Cowboys - Brad Johnson turns 40 this season and is the QB positions' elder statesman. While Johnson's days of prolific passing are long gone, his consistent productivity throughout his career shouldn't be forgotten. Johnson has completed at least 60% of his passes in every season since 1994! He's thrown for at least 3,000 yards and 20 TDs four times, for three different teams. And he's a Super Bowl champion. At the end of the day, Johnson's job is to mentor Tony Romo and serve as a 2nd QB coach in Big D. But, in the event Romo gets hurt, Johnson could manage the team to some real life Ws, but probably wouldn't be as helpful to your fantasy team.

  • Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs shouldn't be convinced that Brodie Croyle is the answer at QB, but it appears they are, for now. That means Damon Huard reverts to a familiar role: veteran backup. But let's not forget that Huard started 18 games over the last two seasons completing 61.5% of his passes for 4,135 yards, 22 TDs and 14 INTs. While Huard wasn't a prolific playmaker, he managed the game and was inarguably more effective than the younger Croyle. Nevertheless, the Chiefs appear committed to going with youth, and that means Huard has probably seen his cup of coffee as an NFL starter come and go.

  • Gus Frerotte, Minnesota Vikings - Gus Frerotte has played for seven NFL teams and returns to the Vikings this year (he played in Minnesota in 2002-2003) to serve as a mentor and backup to Tarvaris Jackson. Frerotte has never had a monster season but is just three years removed from a 2,996 yard, 18 TD campaign in Miami. A career 54% passer, Frerotte shouldn't be considered a viable fantasy option even in the event Tarvaris Jackson gets hurt.

  • Mark Brunell, New Orleans Saints - In 1996, Mark Brunell led the NFL with 4,367 yards passing, and managed to run for another 396 yards. His dual-purpose ability made him a rising star among fantasy leaguers. Yet, 12 years later that remains Brunell's best NFL season. It's hard to believe someone with his reputation has actually only thrown for more than 20 TDs once in his career (2005 in Washington). After several years in Washington, Brunell lands in New Orleans. The bad news is Drew Brees is as firmly entrenched as any QB in the league. The good news is the Saints have a potent offensive cast and talented coaches. While no one should expect Brunell to match Brees' fantasy output in his stead, he's too experienced and the team is too talented to completely discount him as a waiver wire option.

  • Billy Volek, San Diego Chargers - Billy Volek has one season of consequence. He started 8 games in 2004 as a Tennessee Titan and put up 2,486 yards and 18 TDs. Whether that was a case of catching lightning in a bottle or simply a harbinger of what Volek would be capable of if he ever got another chance to start remains to be seen. Volek is now comfortably entrenched behind Philip Rivers in San Diego. While Rivers isn't handing over his job anytime soon, he is coming back from a torn ACL and, therefore, it's entirely possible Volek could have to play a bit for a contending Chargers team. Any team with LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates is going to afford the QB a chance to shine. But the Chargers don't ask Rivers to do a lot and they would probably ask Volek to do much less.

  • Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans - You couldn't pick an odder backup to Vince Young than Kerry Collins. Young is a raw passer with unbridled mobility and athleticism. Collins, on the other hand, is a stoic pocket passer with a rocket arm but not much else. Collins is one of the most experience backups in the league, starting 149 games including a Super Bowl (loss). He's thrown for almost 35,000 yards and has 174 TDs. Unfortunately Collins is a 55% career passer and has 172 interceptions. With arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, no one should look to Collins as a fantasy savior no matter what happens with Vince Young.

  • Todd Collins, Washington Redskins - Collins hadn't started a game in 10 years before the final three games of the 2007 season. It was worth waiting for as the 36-year old led the Redskins to three straight victories while completing 63.8% of his passes, 888 yards, 5 TDs and no interceptions. That earned Collins a new contract but, unfortunately, his situation doesn't look as promising this year. He remains firmly behind Jason Campbell on the depth chart and, more importantly, must now learn a West Coast offense after spending years mastering Al Saunders' version of the Air Coryell offense.

The Rookies

These rookies have a bright future with their teams, and almost certainly will get a shot to start down the road, but may not be very good fantasy options this year despite the hype.

  • Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan is one of the league's highest paid quarterbacks, but that doesn't mean fantasy owners should overvalue him in 2008. Yes, he's the future starter in Atlanta and may even start the majority of his rookie season. But, the Falcons are a bad team and need a lot of pieces to be competitive. It's in Ryan's and the Falcons' best interests to let Chris Redman start while the team rebuilds its offensive line. Given Ryan's pedigree and draft status, he'll probably be drafted in most leagues. Don't be one of those guys. Very few NFL rookie QBs have ever been relevant to fantasy owners, and Ryan doesn't have the supporting cast to break that streak.

  • Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco is big (6'6", 236 pounds), strong armed and certainly is viewed as the future of the Ravens franchise. That said, he played for a small school (Delaware) and is not polished enough to successfully orchestrate an NFL offense as a rookie. Further complicating matters is the new coaching staff. John Harbaugh is a first-time head coach, and it's unclear what kind of stamp he plans on putting on the offense; but presumably he'll let Cam Cameron handle things with relative autonomy. Last, but not least, the Ravens offensive line is a question mark. LT Jared Gaither has the ability to effectively replace Jon Ogden, but those are enormous shoes to fill. Better let Flacco sit while the line finds its cohesion.

  • Brian Brohm, Green Bay Packers - A number of studies have shown that completion percentage and games started are two of the most predictive measures for college QBs translating well into NFL starters. If those studies have merit, Brian Brohm is a potential NFL great. Unfortunately for Brohm, he's backing up another young, talented quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. That's to say nothing of whether Brett Favre decides to call the Packers bluff and return to the fold.

  • Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne is going to remind a lot of people of Tom Brady. University of Michigan starter who wasn't considered the strongest arm or best athlete in his draft class. But, before you know it, Henne could be starting for an AFC East team just as Brady does. Now that's largely where the similarities end. Brady took over a winning Patriots team and had the benefit of masterful coaching. Henne will be playing for one of the league's worst teams and a 1st-year head coach in Tony Sparano. Henne is expected to sit while Josh McCown and John Beck battle for the starting job. Don't give Henne any fantasy consideration unless he tears it up in camp, which seems unlikely based on what we've seen in minicamps.

  • John David Booty, Minnesota Vikings - Booty needs seasoning as he learns the Vikings complex version of the West Coast offense. But he has the USC pedigree and Tarvaris Jackson isn't proven enough to project as a long-term road block. Booty doesn't have off the charts measurables, but he operated an elite college offense for years and would be given a fair shot to earn the job in a season or two if (when?) the Vikings give up on Jackson.

Backup Battles

It seems that many teams, more so than normal, enter the preseason with an uncertain backup situation. For some teams, it's a matter of finding the lesser of two evils. For other teams, it's about determining whether to opt for the veteran or the youngster. And lastly for a few teams, it's a matter of playing out the string, realizing that neither of the options is ideal, and bringing in a veteran to plug the dam.

  • Joey Harrington vs. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - It seems impossible that Matt "$70 million" Ryan won't be QB2 at the very least. He could be the starter by Week One, truth be told. But the Falcons have a lot invested in Ryan and owner Arthur Blank realizes that this isn't about 2008, but about building a foundation for winning in the years to come. To that end, don't completely rule out Joey Harrington from at least starting the season as QB2, before politely giving way later in the season.

  • David Carr vs. Anthony Wright, New York Giants - David Carr is a former 1st overall pick, is it really possible that he could be out of work by the time we kick off the regular season? When the Giants signed Carr this offseason, it was clearly with an eye toward bolstering the backup position. Eli Manning is the franchise, but he did have an injury scare last year and no one could've expected Jared Lorenzen or Anthony Wright to replicate Manning's production. The scary thing for Giants fans is that David Carr can look GREAT in practice, when the pass rush isn't giving him happy feet. If the coaches fall for Carr's siren song in practice, they may be tempted to give him the QB2 job instead of Wright. That would probably be a mistake.

  • Drew Stanton vs. Dan Orlovsky, Detroit Lions - The Lions have two young passers backing up Jon Kitna, and it's impossible to say which has the leg up on the QB2 job. Orlovsky attempted 17 passes in 2005 and hasn't been on the field since. Stanton tore his knee as a rookie and has yet to attempt an NFL pass in a regular season game. Both have their respective merits, but it's really going to come down to which passer better grasps the new offensive system being installed by OC Jim Colletto.

  • Andrew Walter vs. Marques Tuiasosopo, Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell's time is now, but the Raiders are unsettled at the QB2 position. Walter is a strong armed, immobile passer who hearkens back to the long-ball style Al Davis cherished in the Raiders heydays. Tuiasosopo is a former Raiders starter who returns to the team looking for a new lease on life. He is more of a two-way QB who can make plays with his legs or his arm. Unfortunately neither player is particularly compelling as a starter, and it's going to come down to which passer impresses HC Lane Kiffin in training camp.

  • Luke McCown vs. Brian Griese, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jon Gruden LOVES QBs and you just never know which guys are going to break camp as part of the active roster. But it appears Chris Simms is on the outs which leaves Brian Griese (traded for this offseason) and Luke McCown as the likely backups. Griese is, by far, the most established player, but McCown has youth and "potential" on his side. It's anyone's guess how this plays out, but it's a situation worth paying attention to given Gruden's history.

Other Backups

These quarterbacks are the least likely to help your fantasy team this year, because they have either proven to be mediocre, injury prone or would be taking the helm of an unproductive NFL offense if given the starting nod.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cincinnati Bengals - Fitzpatrick may be very smart, but the prospect of his playing in Carson Palmer's stead isn't something that should warm the hearts of Bengals fans far and wide. Fitzpatrick lacks the physical gifts to run the vertical passing attack Cincinnati is known for. The Bengals would have to dramatically ratchet back the play-calling in the event Palmer gets hurt.

  • Patrick Ramsey, Denver Broncos - Jay Cutler will battle Diabetes for the rest of his life and, while we don't expect that to hamper him, we're not doctors. If Cutler gets hurt or his health requires him to take some time off, the Broncos offense would be in Ramsey's hands. If that happens, make sure you don't count on the Broncos passing attack to win you fantasy games.

  • Cleo Lemon, Jacksonville Jaguars - Some people reading this may think Lemon should be in the "Unproven, but in a Good System" section but I disagree. The Jaguars system is very much about David Garrard's ability to protect the ball and make plays when they're there. Most quarterbacks, Lemon included, don't have the discipline to execute the system, and it would likely grind the Jaguars offensive productivity to a halt if Lemon had to play for more than a game or two.

  • Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Simms may be an NFL starter again someday. But right now he remains a disgruntled backup in Tampa that wants his release but hasn't been granted it at press time. Look for Simms to land somewhere like Dallas or Carolina as training camp progresses, in which case he could become worth keeping an eye on as a viable injury replacement and spot fantasy starter.