On Second Thought...Wide Receivers
Posted 8/17 by Jason Wood, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It's hard to believe that we're just a few weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have to have the entire league modeled and projected by early May (for our magazine). Needless to say, a LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations as we go along. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight in a qualitative manner the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.
On Second Thought...
...This isn't the year T.J. Houshmandzadeh (CIN) overtakes Chad Johnson
Chad Johnson has finished with more fantasy points than Housh in each of their seasons together, yet Housh has shown steady improvement and essentially closed the gap on Ocho Cinco a year ago. Despite being a fervent Chad Johnson supporter, I thought this was the season when Housh would be the better fantasy option. He was improving, was playing for a new deal, and wasn't burdened by the animosity Johnson had fostered with his QB and coaches. You might be wondering why I'm not more enthusiastic about Ocho Cinco than I was in May, particularly with his undergoing ankle surgery. The simple fact is, he's back practicing after the surgery and is healthier than he's been in years. He's also playing the good soldier and, on an even playing field, Johnson is the better player.
Fantasy Implications - Significant. Both Houshmandzadeh and Johnson are elite fantasy prospects, and it's probably still going to come down to personal preference in each league. In PPR leagues, Housh and Johnson are both solid Top-10 options, but in a regular redraft league, I would opt for Ocho Cinco to keep up his streak. You can't go wrong either way, though.
...Brandon Marshall (DEN) won't be a top-10 fantasy receiver
Brandon Marshall has all the talent in the world to string together a run of top-5 fantasy finishes, he's that talented. And with QB Jay Cutler healthy and Javon Walker in Oakland, I thought Marshall had established a new baseline of performance last season. But so much happened this offseason that I can no longer forecast Marshall to finish as a top-10 prospect. In addition to hurting his arm in a fight with his brother, several other run-ins with the law led to Commissioner Roger Goodell suspending Marshall for 3 games.
Fantasy Implications - Significant. Marshall remains a top-10 talent and should still put up huge numbers when he's on the field. But missing two (if he seeks counseling) or three (if he doesn't) games to start the year makes it statistically difficult to finish as a top-10 fantasy receiver. Since most leagues only go until Week 13 or 14 before the playoffs, Marshall is going to miss more than 20% of the regular fantasy season. Not good news.
...Marvin Harrison (IND) will be a fantasy starter again
I'm not sure how I got caught up in the hype of negativity but somehow I convinced myself that Marvin Harrison's career was all but done. Coming off a season where he missed 11 games with a knee injury, there was a lot of chatter that he would never suit up or start again. Needless to say, those fears were WAY overstated as Harrison started practicing early in camp and was back playing in preseason game action by the Colts 2nd tilt. As long as he's healthy, Harrison will push for 1,000-yards in his sleep, and is only one season removed from finishing at THE top fantasy receiver (95 for 1,366 and 12 TDs).
Fantasy Implications - Significant. Harrison's ADP has crept up as people realize he's healthy. So while I wouldn't rate him as a top-15 receiver at press time, I'm now having hard time figuring out how Harrison won't finish with 1,000 yards and 8+ TDs. And to be honest, there's very little reason to think he could do much more than that.
...Nate Burleson (SEA) is going to lead the Seahawks WR corps
Last year Bobby Engram became the oldest receiver to ever post his first 1,000-yard season and seemed ready to resume his place as Matt Hasselbeck's top target. But unhappiness over his contract gave way to a broken shoulder that will sideline him for 6-8 weeks. Combine that with Deion Branch's injury woes and Nate Burleson now looks like the clear cut top target in Seattle.
Fantasy Implications - Significant. Matt Hasselbeck is a Pro Bowl passer and the Seahawks thrive on offensive balance. Regardless of whom lines up wide, the team is going to throw the ball and that bodes well for Burleson. Coming off a 50 catch, 9 TD season, Burleson could push for 1,000 yards depending on how quickly Engram and Branch recover.
...Devin Hester (CHI) really will play receiver
When the Bears signed Devin Hester to a reported $40mm extension, I thought they either set a new mark for the value of a special teams return man OR they honestly believe he can make the transition to starting wideout. When my first projections came out, I had the speedy returner catching fewer than 10 catches on the season. While I still have grave reservations about Hester's ability to play the WR position consistently well, I can't deny the coaches' intentions. Lovie Smith complimented Hester as the Bears broke camp and said he's evolved from a returner to a wide receiver.
Fantasy Implications - Moderate. The Bears aren't going to be an explosive passing attack, but they do need to throw to someone and I was hasty in discounting Hester's involvement. I still can't see him being a fantasy starter, but I could see him catching 40+ passes and, given his open field ability, he could lead the Bears in receiving TDs with 5 or 6 if the cards fell perfectly.
...Ernest Wilford (MIA) isn't going to lead the Dolphins in receiving
The Dolphins are rebuilding almost from scratch and I viewed the signing of veteran Ernest Wilford as the Dolphins way of throwing a veteran stable presence into a lineup full of younger receivers. But I erred in a big way on this assumption. One, it looks like Ted Ginn has improved by leaps and bounds. I'm not ready to say he was worth a top-10 pick, but I'm no longer down on his prospects to emerge as a WR1 for the Fins, either. Two, Wilford has really struggled in camp and seems to have fallen out of favor with the new coaching staff. Three, I really didn't give credit to Derek Hagan and his ability to earn playing time.
Fantasy Implications - Moderate. I'm still not sure the Dolphins can produce enough offense to provide fantasy owners with every week starters, but I read the Fins receiving corps completely wrong. It's no longer a given that Wilford will make the team, and the two youngsters have been the bright spots in camp. Ginn, in particular, could be a fantasy sleeper given his speed, strength and pedigree.
...Roydell Williams (TEN) isn't the most intriguing Titans wideout
There's no shame in getting the Titans WR depth chart wrong. I'm not sure the Titans coaches really have confidence in the depth chart either. But heading into the preseason, I expected Roydell Williams to emerge as the team's leading WR. Coming off a 55 catch, 719 yard, 4 TD season, it seemed Williams was ready to establish himself as the team's top target. Instead, Williams' recovery from a broken right ankle took longer than planned, and free agent Justin McCareins has taken hold of a starting spot opposite Justin Gage.
Fantasy Implications - Moderate. Vince Young needs to throw to someone, and the Titans have a host of WRs that are roughly equivalent in their overall games. None are elite, and it's going to come down to what Jeff Fisher and Mike Heimerdinger view as the optimal five. Roydell has to stay healthy and work his way back into the coaches' good graces. The reality is none of the Titans wideouts should be fantasy priorities.
...Steve Breaston (ARI) is going to replace Bryant Johnson
Call it a blind spot or an unhealthy infatuation with rookie receivers, but somehow I missed that Steve Breaston was positioned to replace Bryant Johnson as Arizona's WR3. I figured the team would struggle to replace Johnson and thought rookie Early Doucet would take over the role by midseason. Breaston has done everything right. He's running great routes and catching everything thrown his way.
Fantasy Implications - Minimal. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are going to dominate the receiving numbers, but the Cardinals love using 3-WR sets and Bryant Johnson caught 40-50 passes each and every year. Steve Breaston, not Early Doucet, gets the chance to replicate Johnson's numbers this year.
...James Hardy (BUF) won't start the season opposite Lee Evans
When the Bills drafted James Hardy, I immediately thought they had found the most productive fantasy rookie WR. Hardy is big, strong and a perfect complementary option to the small but speedy Lee Evans. Unfortunately Hardy's offseason wasn't without controversy and, more importantly, I clearly discounted the ability of Josh Reed to hold onto the job.
Fantasy Implications - Minimal. I still love James Hardy's prospects over the long run, and wouldn't be surprised if he takes over a starting role by year end. But, for now, it appears the veteran consistency Reed brings coupled with Hardy's normal (for a rookie) growing pains will set back the clock on his emergence a bit.
...Donnie Avery (STL) isn't going to start opposite Torry Holt
When the Rams made Donnie Avery the first WR off the board in April, I thought it was a stroke of genius. The Rams, desperate for a youth infusion, were faced with starting Drew Bennett opposite Torry Holt. Avery had the skill set to relegate Bennett to the WR3 role where he belongs. Unfortunately a late start to camp and nagging injuries have completely robbed Avery of key practice time. A rookie doesn't learn Al Saunders system without practice time, and that means Avery simply can't be counted on as a contributor for awhile. Bennett benefits but so too does fellow rookie Keenan Burton.
Fantasy Implications - Minimal. Torry Holt is going to catch 100+ passes if he's healthy but the Rams will struggle to find a complementary receiver this season. Bennett isn't the answer, but he's a veteran and will get first dibs at the starting spot. I wouldn't draft anyone other than Holt from this unit, but Avery is no longer a top rookie sleeper prospect; which is a real shame because he has the ability and, had he participated in camp, would've had the opportunity.