Overvalued WRs

Andy Hicks - The stats Wes Welker accrued in 2007 are his absolute ceiling. At his current draft slot he will have to replicate them. That is almost impossible. Welker wore down towards the end of the season and the Patriots in an effort to keep Welker fresh will have to cut his workload. Any inroads into his workload will be detrimental to his draft value and with his low yards per catch and likely drop in touchdowns he is a very risky choice in the late 3rd round of a draft.

Marc Levin - Will Welker top 100 receptions again? With around 10 YPC in 2006 and 2007, it is hard to envision Welker being a top-20 fantasy WR again unless he does. Yet, he is being drafted in the range of Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin and Plaxico Burress. Unless you are playing in a PPR league, invest in the upside of Greg Jennings or Roy Williams instead.

Jeff Pasquino - Welker has nowhere to go but down in 2008. Welker led the league with 112 catches in Tom Brady's record season, catching 77% of his 145 targets. Only one other WR with over 100 targets reached even a 70% target to reception conversion rate (Bobby Engram). The Patriots had a record regular season via the air, and a regression from those gaudy numbers has to be expected.

Maurile Tremblay - Remember Brandon Stokley in 2004? During Peyton Manning's record-breaking season, Stokley was the fantasy WR11 playing out of the slot. He never had a season like that before or since. Fast forward to 2007 during Tom Brady's record-breaking season, when Wes Welker was the fantasy WR11 playing out of the lot. He never had a season like that before . . . . Yet he is being drafted as if a repeat of 2007 is somewhat likely, going off the board as WR13. A repeat of 2007 is not likely.

Jason Wood - I love Wes Welker and, in PPR leagues, don't have a major problem with drafting him WR13. But in non-PPR leagues, I think Welker should be going more in the WR18-WR20 range, a round or two later than his current ADP suggests. He only averages about 10 yards per catch and the Patriots passing attack will regress to the mean in 2008, at least partially.

Andy Hicks - Greg Jennings ranked as a WR1, despite catching only 53 balls. He turned 12 of those catches into TDs. The last time a player did similar was in 1991 (Michael Haynes). In other words don't anticipate the same kind of production from Jennings in 2008. Apart from 2007 being a fluke for Jennings, expect the departure of Favre to hit hard. Jennings may catch more balls, but won't get as many fantasy points this season.

Aaron Rudnicki - Jennings appeared to take over as the #1 WR in Green Bay last season but his fantasy value relied heavily on his TD numbers, which could be tough to replicate with Rodgers at QB. Rodgers probably doesn't have the same type of arm strength that Favre did, so the big plays might be tougher to come by. The Packers also have a deep group of WRs and use a lot of spread formations, so any player could emerge as the primary option in a given week.

Jason Wood - Greg Jennings is a young talent who emerged last season with 12 touchdowns and 920 yards receiving. But TDs are the hardest fantasy metric to predict and it seems unlikely he'll match that output for several reasons. One, Donald Driver is going to catch more than 2 TDs this year. Two, James Jones is going to be used with regularity in 3 WR sets. Three, rookie Jordy Nelson will contribute. In other words, the Packers are going to spread the ball around. Add to that a new starting QB and upgrades at the TE position and I expect Jennings to have slightly better yardage but a drop-off in TDs.

David Yudkin - A huge chunk of Jennings' value came from long distance bombs from HOF QB Brett Favre. Aaron Rodgers takes over for Favre, and I suspect Jennings will not see anywhere near as many TD receptions as he did last year. Jennings averaged a TD catch roughly every four receptions. Donald Driver averaged a TD reception every 41 receptions. With half as many TD catches last year, Jennings would have fallen out of the Top 25.

Will Grant - My comments from back in June still hold true for Andre Johnson -- he's never finished higher than WR18 in his five-year career. Taking him in the second round is drafting him to complement your top 3 RB. Why take the risk on a guy who has never proven himself to bring this kind of value? Stick with a more proven guy like Chad Johnson or Torry Holt.

Jeff Haseley - First it's his knee, now it's his groin. Johnson is an incredible talent, but his injury proneness keeps me from wanting to make him my primary WR. I will let someone else take that risk. He's too much of a risk to select him as the 6th WR off the board.

Mark Wimer - Andre Johnson has all the talent in the world - when healthy. However, he has trouble staying on the field, and most recently tweaked his groin in practices, costing him reps in training camp and time in preseason contests. He's got top 10 potential, but is more likely to finish outside that category due to missed games. At WR6, Johnson is too dicey a prospect - I want to invest my pick in a less risky proposition.

Jason Wood - Johnson is a top-10 talent but let's not forget he missed the final seven games of last season and then had another knee operation in May. There's absolutely no way you can count on Johnson as your top receiving option. This is a guy that's never finished better than WR18 and yet he's being drafted in the top-6? Hardly seems logical.

Colin Dowling - I actually like Marshall this season, but his absence for the first part of the season means that his draft spot -- even as he slides a hair -- is going to be hard to earn in the midst of other players who will get a full 16 games in. With guys like Calvin Johnson and Greg Jennings being selected later, it's hard to see value in Marshall.

Chris Smith - Good player who has been having issues. He already has a three-game suspension in place and that alone lowers his value below his current ADP. I'll let somebody else take a flyer on him this season unless he's sitting there in the sixth round.

Mark Wimer - Brandon Marshall will miss at least 2 games this coming season, possible 3 (depending on his off-field behavior) and there is a DUI case looming ahead in the future which could add even more games on the sidelines. In addition, Marshall severely injured an arm falling through a TV during the offseason - we don't know how the offended muscles and surgically repaired tendons (severed in the gruesome accident) will hold up to a full season of pounding/twisting/pushing off DBs. He shouldn't be going off the board in the top 20, yet somehow he is.

David Yudkin - With Marshall suspended for three games, I don't see him getting enough production in the remaining games to rank in the Top 20. He's had a series of issues that also makes him a candidate for more disciplinary action. His updated FBG projections have him falling into the low- to mid-20s.

David Dodds - Harrison was cleared to play late last season, yet never took the field. When he finally did trot out for the playoffs, he was a shell of his former self playing tentatively. This was Marvin's first real injury and I think it has him playing scared. He will turn 36 this season and with outside business interests, I suspect this will be his last season in the league. My gut tells me that we have seen the last productive days for Harrison.

Andy Hicks - Does anyone think that the 36 year old Marvin Harrison can return to being a fantasy starter? The odds are stacked against him. At this stage of his career to practically miss a whole season is almost an impossible position to recover from. Sure he could contribute in spots, but to draft him as your WR2 is asking for trouble. Someone in every draft will think he's worth the risk. He's not. Look for someone with upside.

Aaron Rudnicki - Harrison is 36 years old and coming off the worst season of his career by far. He's also not fully recovered from the knee problems that bothered him all last season. For a player who relied heavily on his speed, losing a step could be devastating and he may not ever return to being the player he was. Even if he can perform well when healthy, he is too great of an injury risk at this point to warrant a selection this high. The emergence of Anthony Gonzalez late last season has also given the Colts another option in the passing game, which could further reduce Harrison's role in the offense.

Sigmund Bloom - Johnson has already established a frustrating pattern of a hot and cold WR who produces deceptive season end numbers, now he's making noise about demanding a trade. If the Bengals season implodes, Ocho Cinco could become the ultimate malcontent, and the team seems willing to punish him by not releasing him. Taking him this high is the kind of pick you could regret all year.

Andy Hicks - Considering Chad Johnson in the late 2nd, early 3rd round of a draft is the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with 4 bullets loaded. Sure he may be worth his draft slot, but this is a guy who will not be playing for Cincinnati in 2009. Anything could happen this season should things not go his way. A Keyshawn Johnson (his cousin)/Tampa Bay situation or a Terrell Owens/Philadelphia event is on the cards. Stick with a safer choice in the early part of your draft before you pull the trigger on a guy like Chad Johnson.

Jeff Pasquino - Sure Johnson is a Pro Bowl receiver and a dominant player, but he is more of a disruptive force in the locker room. Johnson did all he could to get out of Cincinnati before the NFL Draft and now has backpedaled to being an alleged happy camper. I for one am not buying it. Couple this with the Bengals cutting Chris Henry and uncertainty for the Cincinnati ground game and you have a lot of attention on Johnson from the defenses even if he does play up to his potential. There are safer selections to make and there is little upside to picking Johnson so early.

David Dodds - Not doubting the talent, but he will miss the first two weeks after fighting a teammate. At WR12, I need players that are expected to play a full season.

Aaron Rudnicki - Smith had a disappointing season last year due primarily to the season-ending injury suffered by Jake Delhomme. This year, Delhomme is healthy to start the season but Smith is going to miss at least the first 2 games with a suspension after he beat up his teammate Ken Lucas in practice. Smith also suffered a concussion in the first preseason game, which is always cause for concern since it can become a recurring issue. With the Panthers drafting a big run blocking offensive lineman and powerful running back, it looks like they will focus more on a ball control offense that may limit Smith's opportunities. The team also brought in a couple of bigger WRs in Muhsin Muhammad and DJ Hackett, who may steal some red zone opportunities from Smith (he caught 8 of his 15 TDs the past two seasons from red zone plays).

Mark Wimer - Steve Smith suffered a concussion in the second preseason game after sitting out the first in disgrace due to assaulting and injuring team mate Ken Lucas in practice. Smith is guaranteed to miss the first 2 games of the season, and an old Delhomme favorite, Muhsin Muhammad, has rejoined the team and looks very simpatico with Delhomme so far. Smith will see fewer balls this year for sure (2 games worth less, at the minimum) and won't be the sole playmaker on the WR squad anymore. 10th WR off the board is way too high for a guy with this many strikes against him before the season even opens.

Anthony Borbely - Walker has looked really bad in camp and even suggested that he retire. Walker can't separate and looks like he will be a colossal bust. I'm staying far away from Walker in drafts.

Sigmund Bloom - We're supposed to be impressed that Javon Walker had a few good practices at the end of training camp? Walker had to be talked back into playing football, he seems to have little spring in his step, and he wasn't getting separation from backup CBs in practice. He's not even worth a modest investment of a 9th round pick.

Will Grant - If the rumors are true, Walker's heart may not be in the game and he could be a complete bust this season. If the rumors are false, he's the #1 WR on a team that might not have 3000 yards total passing this season. Even at WR40, I'm taking a pass on this guy.

Chris Smith - A very good young player but I simply don't like him where he is sitting this year. The Chiefs passing attack isn't going to be very good, the offensive line is going through growing pains and he's going a couple of rounds too early for my liking. I'll let somebody else pick him up this year unless he's there in the 7th round.

Maurile Tremblay - Bowe had great season last year, finishing as the #24 fantasy WR as a rookie. He's no lock to improve on his 2007 numbers this year, however, and even if he does add a few hundred yards and a couple touchdowns more, he'll merely be living up to his draft position rather than exceeding it. For the price you have to pay to get him, there is very little upside to drafting Bowe.

Jeff Tefertiller - Braylon Edwards had a tremendous 2007 season. He and Derek Anderson hooked up on several outstanding receptions. But, it is doubtful that the former Michigan star will grab 16 TDs again. It has only happened 15 times before. There is a ton of risk taking Braylon this early, not including if anything happens to Anderson.

David Yudkin - History has not been kind to WRs that have hit the 15 TD mark. Based on some of the other WRs from the past, there is a better chance he ends up with eight TDs than 16 again. If he could match his other numbers, an eight-TD season could knock Edwards out of the Top 10.

David Dodds - He cracked a shoulder bone and is expected to miss at least the first 6 games. He is already 35 so he may have a hard time getting his position back at mid-season.

Jason Wood - Bobby Engram had a glorious season last year, becoming the oldest WR in league history to have his first 1,000-yard season. Prior to last season's WR15 finish, Engram had finished 63rd, 40th and 97th over the prior three seasons. Now he's out for 6 to 8 weeks with a broken shoulder, no way can you afford to draft him as a mid rounder and the first WR projected to come off your bench.

Jeff Haseley - I can allow this ranking for Fitzgerald if Kurt Warner was going to be the starting QB for the Cardinals, but that's not the case. Matt Leinart is the one under center and he doesn't have the talent to keep Fitzgerald in the top 5 among WRs.

David Yudkin - Fitzgerald has ranked as the #2 highest scoring WR with Kurt Warner tossing him the ball. But he's ranked as the #20 WR with anyone else at QB. Fitzgerald owners better hope the Cardinals make a move and insert Warner in favor of Leinart or it could be a long year for Fitz.

Marc Levin - Calvin Johnson had 95 targets, 48 catches, and 4 TDs to rank as the #35 receiver last year. Why is he expected to jump to the #19 WR in 2008? Do fantasy owners really expect the Lions to produce two top-24 fantasy receivers this year when they could not do so with Mike Martz calling the plays? The Lions' second receiver is being drafted ahead of Lee Evans, Marvin Harrison, and Hines Ward. Johnson is leaving the board in the 5th round, just behind Roy Williams, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin. Talk about a tier drop.

Mark Wimer - Calvin Johnson is the junior wideout on the Lions. If Roy Williams moves on next year, maybe Johnson becomes a top 20 WR (if his development continues this year) - he hasn't arrived yet, but many are drafting him as if he's already an All-Pro.

Colin Dowling - Berrian may be just what the doctor ordered for the Vikings. But when you consider that Minnesota is going to run a TON, Berrian is on a new team in a new system, and Sidney Rice is quite possibly the better receiver of the two (and has a rapport already with QB Jackson), counting on Berrian as a WR3 is a bit of a gamble.

Jeff Pasquino - This might seem odd, but I tend to like to draft players that will actually play. Branch is nearly certain to start the year on the PUP list, which will keep him out until at least NFL Week 8. Considering that most fantasy leagues run 14 weeks or fewer, there is no reason to waste a roster spot for a broken wideout. Unless you are picking for your injured reserve, Branch should remain undrafted.

Chris Smith - I believe the ship has sailed for Isaac Bruce. Besides who is going to be throwing him the ball in 2008? Unless Steve Young is coming out of retirement, I'll take a pass on Bruce as he rides off into the sunset.

Maurile Tremblay - Chambers played very well after joining the Chargers midway through last season. He brought with him a reputation for dropping the easy balls, but showed consistently good hands in San Diego. He became Rivers' go-to receiver on third downs toward the end of the season. So what's not to like? Simply the fact that there aren't enough balls to go around in San Diego to support a starting fantasy WR. The tight end and running back -- Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson, respectively -- will get plenty of targets in the Chargers' offense; and even among the wide receivers, Vincent Jackson and Craig Davis will play significant roles. If the Chargers throw the ball 500 times this season, and the WRs get about 45% of the targets, and Chambers gets about 40% of the WR looks -- that's about 90 targets for Chambers. He'll convert those into about 50 catches, but that's not enough to justify his current ADP.

Maurile Tremblay - Marvin Harrison was the fantasy WR61 last year with Marvin Harrison missing most of the season. Harrison is now healthy and that makes Gonzalez the fifth option in the Colts' offense. He is being drafted as if he were a solid starting NFL wide receiver, but he is in fact backing up two of the better WRs in the league.

Sigmund Bloom - Owens disappeared from games late in the season, and seems to be getting to that point where the drop-off is coming soon. He's still an easy pick as one of the last WR1s in the third round, but too risky to take over any of the top 6 or 7 young studs in the 2nd.

David Dodds - I am not sold that Jerry Porter will emerge as the best WR in Jacksonville. In fact I won't be shocked when he isn't even a starting WR there. And the way the Jaguars use receivers (constantly rotating different ones in plus electing to run more than pass) should be enough reasons to stay clear of Porter this season.

Chris Smith - Stallworth is a good pickup in Cleveland. However I believe the Browns will run the ball often this season and when they do pass, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow will get the bulk of the targets. There simply won't be enough passes to go around for Stallworth to be worth his current draft position.

Jeff Pasquino - White did post some nice numbers in 2007, but once again the Falcons have a number of questions on offense. Who will be the starting QB this season, Chris Redman or rookie Matt Ryan? Can the addition of Michael Turner bulk up the ground game enough to balance the offense and get receivers open? Who will start opposite of White, and who will be the TE? Defenses will key on White who won't surprise defenses this season.

Sigmund Bloom - It's hard to call WR47 overvalued, but it's impossible to ask any WR to repeat on 10 TDs in only 38 catches, especially when they miss training camp with a knee injury. Williams only caught more than 2 balls 6 times last year. The Jags prefer to lean on the run and spread the ball around when they do pass - look elsewhere for your mid-round WR depth.

Jeff Tefertiller - Roy Williams is being drafted as WR15 even though he has only finished in the Top 29 at his position once in his four-year career. With Martz leaving town, Roy Williams will be tough to start each week for fantasy owners.