Value Plays - Week 15

  Posted 12/10 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who could provide value in a given week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's value players.

Quarterback

David Garrard

• Top 250 ranking: 20
• Weekly ranking: 8
• Difference: +12

Garrard is a sneaky fantasy play this week as the Jaguars meet the Packers. This could be a high scoring game for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are expected to be without Fred Taylor and Greg Jones. Garrard is a decent QB1 this week. The one concern is the suspension of Matt Jones.

Jeff Garcia

• Top 250 ranking: 24
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: +11

Garcia is coming off a good statistical game against the Panthers. This week, he and the Buccaneers travel to Atlanta. The Falcons are not very strong against the pass and should allow the veteran passer to have a good game.

Chad Pennington

• Top 250 ranking: 21
• Weekly ranking: 12
• Difference: +9

Pennington has not thrown many picks this year in a run-oriented offense. But, he can have some huge games. The Dolphins host the 49ers in a great matchup for Pennington. Pennington makes a good spot play this week as Miami will have to throw some to keep up with Shaun Hill and the pass-happy Mike Martz offense.

Running Back

Joseph Addai

• Top 250 ranking: 28
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: +15

Addai has been missing in action for a while. He gets a great matchup this week in the Detroit Lions. The Lions are the worst rush defense in the league. They give up a whopping 173 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game. Addai could have a nice bounce back game to end the season.

Jonathan Stewart

• Top 250 ranking: 32
• Weekly ranking: 14
• Difference: + 18

Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been formidable this season. They face a weak Bronco rush defense in what should be another huge game for the Panther run game. The rookie is coming off of a 115 yard, 2 touchdown performance against a much tougher Buccaneer defense.

LaDainian Tomlinson

• Top 250 ranking: 12
• Weekly ranking: 7
• Difference: + 5

Tomlinson has been struggling to come back from the toe injury. This week, he faces the weak Chief defense. They yield 160 rushing yards and 1.6 scores a game. He could be in for a monster stat line this week.

Sammy Morris

• Top 250 ranking: 30
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: +8

Morris and the Patriots get the weak rush defense of the Oakland Raiders. Oakland gives up 159 rushing yards and 1.4 scores each game. This week, Morris makes a good spot starter. He should be good for 60-70 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

Isaac Bruce

• Top 250 ranking: 36
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: +14

Bruce has produced well since the change at quarterback to Shaun Hill. Shaun Hill has looked to the veteran often for the clutch reception. Bruce and the 49ers travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. Bruce as been able to find the endzone of late and looks like a decent WR2 this week.

Davone Bess

• Top 250 ranking: 40
• Weekly ranking: 23
• Difference: +17

Bess has taken over for the injured Greg Camarillo as the primary receiver for Chad Pennington. The Dolphins face the 49ers in what could be a high scoring game. The 49ers are weak against the pass and will give the undrafted rookie room to roam.

Antonio Bryant

• Top 250 ranking: 25
• Weekly ranking: 15
• Difference: +10

Bryant is coming off of an outstanding game against the Panthers. He lit up Carolina like few receivers have. This week, Bryant and the Buccaneers play the Falcons. Atlanta is not great against the pass and could allow Bryant to have a big game. Fantasy owners can point to the big game Marques Colston had last week.

Lee Evans

• Top 250 ranking: 18
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: +5

Evans will get a soft Jet secondary this week. New York is strong against the run, but gives up a lot of yardage through the air. They have been lit up the last two weeks through the air. This could be the week Evans explodes.

Tight End

Jeremy Shockey

• Top 250 ranking: 10
• Weekly ranking: 4
• Difference: 6

Shockey played well last week against the Falcons. He and the Saints travel to Chicago to meet the Bears in a tough, meaningful game. If there was a game for Shockey to step up, this is it. He gets the big stage and should be productive.

Zach Miller

• Top 250 ranking: 9
• Weekly ranking: 3
• Difference: 6

Miller has been the only weapon for the Raider passers. He should be able to have a good game against the Patriots. Oakland has no viable wide receivers in a game that the Raiders should be playing from behind.

Kicker

John Kasay

• Top 250 ranking: 7
• Weekly ranking: 2
• Difference: 5

Kasay is benefiting from the strong running game of the Panthers. This week, the Carolina rushers should be able to run all over the Broncos. Kasay makes a good play this week, especially how hot the Panther offense has been.

Robbie Gould

• Top 250 ranking: 17
• Weekly ranking: 7
• Difference: 10

Gould and the Bears host the Saints on Thursday night. This is a game that could be high scoring, even in the cold. Gould should be able to get several scoring opportunities as the Bears try to keep pace with the high-powered Saint passing game.

Defense

Miami Dolphins

• Top 250 ranking: 20
• Weekly ranking: 3
• Difference: 17

The Dolphin defense has played well. This week, they host the 49ers. San Francisco is a much better home team than on the road. Also, the NFC West teams have struggled when traveling east. Shaun Hill will throw some picks this week. Plus, the 49ers will probably be without their best player, Frank Gore.

Indianapolis Colts

• Top 250 ranking: 10
• Weekly ranking: 1
• Difference: 9

The Colts get another great matchup this week against the Lions. It is not yet known who the Detroit passer will be. But, what is known is that it will not be a good player. The Colt defense has made plays the last few weeks against inferior offenses and this looks the same. Expect a big week from the Indianapolis fantasy defense.